Disrupt, Collapse and TransformTrends Driving Growth

Dorman Followwill, Partner

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“Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.” – T.S. Eliot

Disrupt

Top 50 Technologies

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Top 50 Technologies

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Top 50TechnologiesWeb

Regenerative MedicineNext-Gen SequencingBiomarkersPersonalized MedicineTargeted Drug DeliveryGenetic Cosmetics

Advanced Energy StorageConcentrated Solar PowerWind PowerGrid Energy ManagementSuperconductors

Waste-to-EnergyAdvanced FiltrationSolid Waste TreatmentBiochemicalsDesalinationGeneral Illumination LEDsEnergy Efficient ProcessorsNext-Gen Non-Volatile MemorySmart Haptics & TouchFlexible ElectronicsOLED Displays

Carbon FibersBiocompositesSuperhydrophobic CoatingsSmart PackagingLightweight CompositesPolymer ChameleonsAlternative FeedstocksNanocoatings

CBRNE DetectionEnergy HarvestingNanosensorsUbiquitous Wireless Sensor

Roll-to-Roll Manufacturing3D PrintingComposites ManufacturingMicromanufacturing

Remote Patient MonitoringSurgical RobotsInterventional Radiology Neuromodulation Technologies

VirtualizationCloud ComputingBig Data AnalyticsSemantic SearchData VisualizationContext-Aware MobilityAugmented RealityIn-Memory

Computing

Information & Communication TechnologyHealth & Wellness

Sustainable Energy

Clean & Green Environment MicroelectronicsMaterials & CoatingsSensors & Controls

Medical Device & Imaging Technology

Advanced Manufacturing & Automation

Note: All technologies have expected global impactSource: Frost & Sullivan

N=1Integration of Technology changes manufacturing Business Model’s

Source: MLC, Frost & Sullivan

Hyper Personalized

Business Model Focus Creates Higher Rate of ReturnStrategy Process Product Delivery

Business model

Partnering Enabling process

Core process

Product performance

Product system

Service Channel Brand Customer experience

Cumulative Value Creation Last 10 Years

Volume of Innovation EffortsLast 10 YearsHi

Source: Doblin analysis, Doblin Inc.

Lo

Hi

Lo

Fund

Consumer-Initiative Business Models BRIC and Latin American Consumers to Group Up by the Internet to Lead Transactions

Photo Credits: Changemakers, carhubindia, itcportal.com, grameenfoundationSource: Company websites; Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Note: C2C: Consumer-to-Consumer; C2B: Consumer-to-Business, SME: Small and Medium Enterprises.

C2C E-commerceMercado Livre platform has nearly 12 million users and over US$ 610 millions in yearly C2C transactions in Latin America. Brazil accounts for 50%

C2C LendingThere are 4,144 C2C microlending companies in China. The total lending reaches $58.51 billion in 2011.

Other examples: OLX, Bomnegocio.com Example: Credit Ease C2C Lending

Fast-growing internet penetrationempowers BRIC consumers

Connectivity to create new business models

Example: Peixe Urbano, Groupon.com

C2B Group buyLatin American consumers assemble to strive for group offers from the seller.C2B Kick-StartChinese and Indian consumers sponsor the service they want from SMEs*.

Example: Demohour.com

Transparency• Inability to hide• Pervasive data• =sustainability• =privacy

Inability to hidePervasive “Big” dataSustainabilityPrivacy

Smart…….What is it???

Smart Technology Smart BuildingsSmart MobilitySmart WindowsSmart CloudsLEVEL 3

Sensing Mechanism + Two-way Flow of

Data Communication

Smart Chip Smart LightingLEVEL 2

Basic Sensing Mechanism + One-

way Data Communication

Smart BandagesLEVEL 1

Basic Sensing Mechanism

Photo Credits: Dreamstime and Connected Digital World, Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis

Collapse

Today 2025Oil & Gas Gas & Oil + RenewablesMusic = Apple Store Music = StreamedA Car = an OEM A Car = Facebook

Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction Will Collapse Industries Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try Products without leaving their homes

Virtual Classes and Laboratories and Daily 3D Field Trips to Different Countries and Planets

Virtual World Used forProduct Builds Virtual Business Conferences

Social Networking: 3D Avatars Enabling People to Lead Multiple Lives

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Healthcare Re-imagined

In Person In Home PredictiveReactive Semi Reactive MonitoredDelivered DirectTo Patient – No MD

Generational Political ChangesLeader

Core Thoughts• Marxism• Revolution• Military and political unity.

• Pragmatism• Socialist Market Economy

• Change of Communist Party of China: allow private entrepreneurs to join the Party.

• Scientific Development: empower SOEs*• Harmonious Society: tighten up media control & internet censoringMilestone

Deng Jiang Hu & Wen Xi & Li

• Chinese Civil War (1927-1949)• People’s Republic of China (1949)

• Chinese Economic Reform (1978-1992)• Hong Kong and Macao’s reunification with China (1997,1999)

• 17% GDP CAGR through financial crisis.• Beijing Olympics (2008)• Shanghai expo

1st Generation 2nd Generation 3rd Generation 4th Generation 5th GenerationMao

Source: The Central People’s Government of China; Frost & Sullivan

Law Professionals EngineersRevolutionists1949 1975 1987 2002 2012• Expected to stabilize the commercial environment for foreign businesses• To see a more liberal scenario on public communication.

Collapse

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Today Tomorrow?

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Transform

What Competition?

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Connected World: Over 80 billion devices will be Connected in Future

10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020

5 billion internet users by 2020

5 connected devices for every user by 2020

500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020

10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 20205 connected devices for every user by 2020

5 billion internet users by 202080 billion Devicesby 2020

China = 5.1Billion Devices

IPv6

China 877MnInternet Users 800Mn Internet Users in Africa

India = 1.5Billion Devices190Mn Pay TVIn India

Connected World

340,282,366,920,938,463,463,374,607,431,768,211,456

Education Transformation – Hole in Wall

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Sugata Mitra: TED Winner for Child Driven Learning

Smart City Transformation

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• Smart Grids• Smart Meters• Intelligent Energy Storage

• Renewable Energy Integration

• Building integrated Photovoltaic

• Advanced Traffic Management System (ATMS

• Parking Management• ITS-Enabled

Transportation Pricing System

• Sensor networks• Digital Water and Waste

Management

• Use of ehealth and mhealth systems

• Intelligent and connected medical devices

• e-Government• e-Education• Disaster Management

Solutions

• Use of Green Mobility Options

• Smart Lifestyle Choices

• 4G connectivity• Super broadband• Free Wi-Fi• 1Gbps download speeds

Smart Energy: Digital Management of Energy Smart Buildings: Automated Intelligent Buildings Smart Mobility: Intelligent Mobility

Smart Infrastructure: Digital Management of Infrastructure Smart Governance: Government-on-the-Go

Smart Healthcare: Intelligent Healthcare Technology Smart Citizen: Civic Digital Natives

Smart Technology: Seamless Connectivity

3D? What about 4D?

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Photo credit: MIT, Skylar Tibbits

Healthcare Transformation

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Medical Device Connectivity

Medical Device Connectivity

Nanotech AdvancesNanotech Advances

Flexible electronics and displays currently being developed for commercial electronic devices, have tremendous applications for hospital care settings .

Devices leveraging long and short range wireless communications, cloud computing, big data analytics, and information security for enhancing care.

Nanotechnology provides benefits of biocompatibility and functionally at an unparalleled scale, that is better able to influence diseases happening at a cellular level.

Flexible ElectronicsFlexible Electronics

Augmented reality devices which can overlay information and images via smart glass technologies could have tremendous applications in improving clinical workflow.

Augmented RealityAugmented Reality

As the cost and size of 3D printing technologies continues to become more scalable to healthcare settings, they have the potential to produce customized implants, surgical tools, and bioprinted tissues, organs, blood vessels, etc.

3D Printing3D Printing

Women Power

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Women Power in 2025

25 “Fortune Global 500” Companies will be headed by Women*

Over 40% of the global workforce will be women

Every 1 of 3 workers will be a woman.

Women will represent 25% of Parliament

*Currently 15 Fortune 500 Companies are Headed by Women CEOs Source: Fortune 500 Magazine, 2009; Catalyst; International Labour Organisation; and Governance Metrics International

Women will control or influence $90 trillion worth of consumer spending worldwideMore female than male migration to urban centers in search of high profile jobs in the age group of 20-30 years.

Salaries of Women At Par or More than Men by 2025 in most countries. In the UK women received better pay raises than men in 2010.

Women will hold 12% of the board seats and 50% of the managerial position. Women CEOs who currently account for only 3% will grow to represent 6% of the leaders

Stay at home Dads/Househusbands

Single Parent

One- Child Family and Late Children

New Family Trends in 2025

Source: ILO, Catalyst, Frost and Sullivan Analysis

Middle Class Transformation: Over 1.5 billion middle class consumers from India and China alone by 2020

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Above $100,000

$60,000-$100,000

$44,000-$60,000

$22,000-$44,000

$10,000-$15,000

$7,500-$10,000

$3,200-$7,500

$1,000-$3,200

Below $1,000

$15,000-$22,000

Russia2 Brazil2 China1 India1 Turkey2 South Africa1

Total Population 210 1,388 1,399 85141

8

12

12

22

16

18

30

13

12

2

6

13

20

56

32

52

20

4

6

2

2

6

21

123

313

287

205

350

60

21

5

10

45

95

81

108

80

500

85

390

2

3

10

21

12

10

8

12

7

0

2

2

3

1

7

8

12

5

4

9

Income (Annual)

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140 949 864 6155 19Total Middle Class

2Income Brackets in Per Capita / Individual Income Terms1Income Brackets in Total Household Income TermsNote: Numbers in Millions Middle Class Individuals Below Poverty Line

Source: NCAER, Rosstat; TurkStat; CNBS; FGV; Frost & Sullivan Analysis

So what will the future look like in 2025

We will be witnessing robots in homesDigital assistants will guide our lives

Cars to have autonomous functionsLATAM citizen health will be driven

China will be going through social reformDesigner drugs begin to emerge

Virtual world will kill / Reshape Industries LATAM citizen will pay using their mobile phones

Case Study:

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• 1987, established in Sao Paulo. Now one of the most global companies in Brazil

• Revenues over R$2 bn and 17,000 employeesin 2013

Marco Stefanini, Global CEO

• IT consulting services, IT outsourcing and business process outsourcing

: Drivers of globalization

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Globalization – a two way roadGlobal players entering Brazil indicated it was necessary to expand to new markets

Need to go globalDecision made in early ‘90s, when the company sold less than US$ 10m

Implement new business modelServe clients in a distributed way wherever possible, initially in Brazil and then in various countries

Conquer new marketsAnd from there start a globalization strategy that would finally position Stefanini as one of the world leaders

Believe in Brazil’s potentialLeveraging skills of local workforce enabled Stefanini to win in the competitive market of software and services exports

: A true global company74

offices

30countrie

s

32languag

es

66cities

40%of revenues outside

Brazil in 2013

+R$ 4 bnExpected revenues in

2016

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Contact InformationDorman FollowwillPartner – Director: Europe, Israel, Africa

+44 1865 398620

dorman.followwill@frost.com

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Mega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on Frost & Sullivan Research