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Global income inequality today
Branko Milanovic
Perugia, June 2009
Email: [email protected]
Based on the book Worlds Apart, 2005 and updates
BM note: this is an update of moscow2.ppt
1. Inequalities today
Three concepts of inequality definedConcept 1 inequality
Concept 2 inequality
Concept 3 (global) inequalty
Inequality, 1950-2006:The mother of all inequality disputes
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Gin
i co
effi
cien
t
Weighted international inequality without China
Weighted international inequalty (Concept 2)
Global inequality (Concept 3)
Unweighted international inequality (Concept 1)
Three concepts of inequality using the new 2005 PPPs (1950-2007)
.45
.55
.65
.75
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010year
global_gini2 Global Concept 1 inequality
1982 1990 2000
Graph in interyd\dofiles\defines.do
The impact of new PPPs
• Concept 2 inequality increases by almost 10 Gini points (a level shift)
• Somewhat steeper decline of Concept 2 inequality in the last decade (because India and China now appear poorer)
• About 5 Gini points increase in Concept 1 inequality (shift effect; no trend effect)
• About 5 Gini points increase in global inequality
(cont.)
• World poorer than thought, Asia in particular
• Inequality (in all formulations) greater
• Two engines of “global equalization”: China and India
Concept 1 and Concept 2 inequality
Concept 2
Concept 2 without China
Concept 1
.45
.5.5
5.6
.65
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020year
Graph in interyd\dofiles\defines.do
2. Inequality between world citizens today
Methodological issues
• GDI per capita or HS mean• Definitional difference (H&E, undisbursed profits)
and• Practical difference (under-surveying of the rich
and under-reporting of property Y)• Mixing of the two biases both poverty and
inequality down• Moreover, movements in NA and HS statistics
are different • If HS mean is it HSY or HSX?
Methodological issues (cont.)
• Even if HS welfare indicator is selected definitions of X,Y vary in time & btw. countries
• Issues: self-employed Y, home C, imputation of housing, treatment of publicly provided H&E, use of top coding, under-estimation of property incomes
• What PPP to use• Equivalence scales & intra-HH inequality
The difficulty stems from contradictory movements
• (1) Greater inequality within nations
• (2) Greater differences between countries’ mean incomes (think of US vs. Africa)
• (3) But catching up of large and poor countries (China and India)
• All of these forces determine what happens to GLOBAL INEQUALITY (but they affect it differently)
3. First calculations of global inequality from household survey
data alone
Population coverage
1988 1993 1998 2002
Africa 48 76 67 77
Asia 93 95 94 96
EEurope 99 95 100 97
LAC 87 92 93 96
WENAO 92 95 97 99
World 87 92 92 94
Non-triviality of the omitted countries (Maddison vs. WDI)
GDI (US dollar) coverage
1988 1993 1998 2002
Africa 49 85 71 71
Asia 94 93 96 95
EEurope 99 96 100 99
LAC 90 93 95 95
WENAO 99 96 96 100
World 96 95 96 98
Number of surveys (C-based)
1988 1993 1998 2002
Africa 14(11) 30(27) 24(24) 30(29)
Asia 19(10) 26(18) 28(20) 26(18)
EEurope 27(0) 22(0) 27(14) 26(16)
LAC 19(1) 20(4) 22(2) 21(1)
WENAO 23(0) 23(0) 21(3) 21(2)
World 102(22) 121(52) 122(63) 124(66)
1988 1993 1998 2002
International dollars ($PPP)
Gini index
68.4
(2.0)
70.0
(1.4)
69.4
(1.8)
70.8
(1.4)
Between compnt
61.8 62.6 62.1 63.9
US dollars
Gini index
77.8
(1.5)
80.4
(1.4)
79.6
(1.3)
81.0
(1.1)
Global inequality (with 2005 PPPs)(distribution of persons by $PPP or US$ income per capita)
4. Importance of the differences in countries’ mean incomes
Concept 1 inequality in historical perspective: Convergence/divergence during different
economic regimes
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1820 1870 1890 1900 1913 1929 1938 1952 1960 1978 2000
Gini
Theil
FIRST GLOBALIZATION DEGLOBALIZATION
WAR DEVELOPMENTAL STATE
NEOLIBERAL
• In Gini terms:
• where Gi=individual country Gini, π=income share, yi = country income, pi = population share, μ=overall mean income, n = number of countries, L=overlap term
LppyypG j
n
ij
iij
n
i
n
i
iii
)1
1
How are Concepts 2 and 3 related?
Concept 2
A non-Marxist world
• Over the long run, decreasing importance of within-country inequalities despite the reversal in the last quarter century,
• Increasing importance of between-country inequalities (with some hopeful signs in the last five years, before the current crisis),
• Global division between countries more than between classes
Composition of global inequality changed: from being mostly due to “class” (within-national), today it is mostly due to “location” (where people live; between-national)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1870 2000
C lass
Location
Location
Class
1870
2000
Based on Bourguignon-Morrisson (2002) and Milanovic (2005)
A literary illustration: Elizabeth’s dilemma (from Pride and Prejudice)
Income in 1810 (£ pa)
Approx. position in 1810 income distribution
Mr. Darcy
10,000 Top 0.1%
Elizabeth’s family
3000/7~430 Top 1%
Elizabeth alone
50 Median
Gain 100 to 1
Income around Y2K (£ pc pa)
270,000
57,000
6,500
20 to 1
1810 position estimates based on Colquhoun 1801-3 data. Y2K data from LIS (UK1999), and for 0.1% from Piketty (Data-central).
Define four worlds:
• First World: The West and its offshoots• Take the poorest country of the First World
(e.g. Portugal)• Second world (the contenders): all those
less than 1/3 poorer than Portugal.• Third world: all those 1/3 and 2/3 of the
poorest rich country.• Fourth world: more than 2/3 below
Portugal.
Four Worlds in 1960
Four Worlds in 2003
Growth over 1980-2002 period as function of initial (1980) income
Population according to income of country where they live (2007): an empty middle
histogram gdpppp [w=popu] if year==2007 & gdpppp<50000 & Dcont==1, bin(20) percent ylabel(0(10)40) xtitle(GDP per capita in 2005 PPP)
010
20
30
40
Perc
ent
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000GDP per capita in 2005 PPP
USAW Europe, JapanBrazil, Russia, Mexico
China
India, Indon, Bgd
The key borders today
• First to fourth world: Greece vs. Macedonia and Albania; Spain vs. Morocco (25km), Malaysia vs. Indonesia (3km)
• First to third world: US vs. Mexico.
In 1960, the only key borders were Argentina and Uruguay (first) vs. Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia (third world), and Australia (first) vs. Indonesia (fourth)
Year 2007 Year 1980
Approximate % of foreign workers in labor force
Ratio of real GDI per capita
Greece (Macedonian/Albanians)
7.5 4 to 1 2.1 to 1
Spain (Moroccans)
14.4 7.4 to 1 6.5 to 1
United States (Mexicans)
15.6* 3.6 to 1 2.6 to 1
Malaysia
(Indonesians)
>14.0 3.7 to 1 3.6 to 1
* BLS, News Release March 2009; data for 2008 inclusive of undocumented aliens.
5. Global inequality (cont.)
More than fifty-fifty world (new PPPs)
Cumulative % of world population
Cumulative % of PPP world income/consumption
In a single country (UK)
5 0.24
10 0.6 2.0
25 2.1
50 6.6 25.0
75 17.8
90 42 71.5
Top 10 58 28.5
Top 5 38.6 18.4
How big is a Gini of 70? (Year 2002, 2005PPPs)
Top Bottom Ratio
In PPP dollars
5 percent 38% 0.24% 165-1
10 percent 58% 0.6% 95-1
In current $
5 percent 45% 0.15% 300-1
10 percent 67.5% 0.45% 150-1
10 top countries 31,850 580 55-1
Different countries and income classes in global income distribution (year 2002; new PPPS)
Germany
USA
Russia Brazil
India
110
2030
4050
6070
8090
100
perc
entil
e of
wor
ld in
com
e di
strib
utio
n
1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100country percentile
Note…• Richest people in India barely intersect with
poorest people in Germany • Bottom 20% of Americans worse off than
equivalent people in Germany• But this is not true for Brazil and Russia: about
half of the population of Brazil better off than the very poorest percentile in Germany; for Russia, it is 4/5.
• Russian better-off than Brazilians except at the top (note convexity at the top in Brazil)
• Important later for rules re. global transfers
Distribution of percentile of global income distribution across five world regions (02 WYD)
020
40
60
80
100
glo
bal p
erc
entil
e if
whole
==
1
Africa Asia Latin America Eastern Europe West
. graph box inc_c if maxgroup==20, over(region); use world2002.dta
GermanyItaly
Russia
Serbia
Hungary
110
2030
4050
6070
8090
100
perc
entil
e of
wor
ld in
com
e di
strib
utio
n
1 5 10 15 20country ventile
GDP per capita and Gini
HUNHUNHUNHUNHUNHUNHUNHUNHUNHUNHUNHUNHUNHUNHUNHUNHUNHUNHUNHUN
ARMARMARMARMARMARMARMARMARMARMARMARMARMARMARMARMARMARMARMARM UKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRCZECZECZECZECZECZECZECZECZECZECZECZECZECZECZECZECZECZECZECZESVKSVKSVKSVKSVKSVKSVKSVKSVKSVKSVKSVKSVKSVKSVKSVKSVKSVKSVKSVKBGRBGRBGRBGRBGRBGRBGRBGRBGRBGRBGRBGRBGRBGRBGRBGRBGRBGRBGRBGRSRBSRBSRBSRBSRBSRBSRBSRBSRBSRBSRBSRBSRBSRBSRBSRBSRBSRBSRBSRBBLRBLRBLRBLRBLRBLRBLRBLRBLRBLRBLRBLRBLRBLRBLRBLRBLRBLRBLRBLR SVNSVNSVNSVNSVNSVNSVNSVNSVNSVNSVNSVNSVNSVNSVNSVNSVNSVNSVNSVNKGZKGZKGZKGZKGZKGZKGZKGZKGZKGZKGZKGZKGZKGZKGZKGZKGZKGZKGZKGZ HRVHRVHRVHRVHRVHRVHRVHRVHRVHRVHRVHRVHRVHRVHRVHRVHRVHRVHRVHRVLTULTULTULTULTULTULTULTULTULTULTULTULTULTULTULTULTULTULTULTUKAZKAZKAZKAZKAZKAZKAZKAZKAZKAZKAZKAZKAZKAZKAZKAZKAZKAZKAZKAZBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHBIHALBALBALBALBALBALBALBALBALBALBALBALBALBALBALBALBALBALBALBALB
TJKTJKTJKTJKTJKTJKTJKTJKTJKTJKTJKTJKTJKTJKTJKTJKTJKTJKTJKTJK ROMROMROMROMROMROMROMROMROMROMROMROMROMROMROMROMROMROMROMROMMDAMDAMDAMDAMDAMDAMDAMDAMDAMDAMDAMDAMDAMDAMDAMDAMDAMDAMDAMDAUZBUZBUZBUZBUZBUZBUZBUZBUZBUZBUZBUZBUZBUZBUZBUZBUZBUZBUZBUZB MNEMNEMNEMNEMNEMNEMNEMNEMNEMNEMNEMNEMNEMNEMNEMNEMNEMNEMNEMNE
POLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLPOLLVALVALVALVALVALVALVALVALVALVALVALVALVALVALVALVALVALVALVALVAMKDMKDMKDMKDMKDMKDMKDMKDMKDMKDMKDMKDMKDMKDMKDMKDMKDMKDMKDMKDRUS ESTRUS ESTESTESTESTESTESTESTRUSRUSRUSRUS ESTESTRUSRUSRUSRUS ESTRUS ESTRUS ESTESTRUS ESTRUSRUS ESTESTRUSRUSRUS ESTRUS ESTESTRUS
GEOGEOGEOGEOGEOGEOGEOGEOGEOGEOGEOGEOGEOGEOGEOGEOGEOGEOGEOGEO
20
30
40
50
60
gin
i
1000 2000 10000 40000gdp per capita, PPP (Constant 2005 international $)
Global inequality of opportunity
• How much of variability of income person’s global income can we explain with two circumstances only: person’s country of citizenship and income class of his/her parents?
• Both circumstances basically given at birth• With citizenship person receives several public
goods: income of country, its inequality level, and its intergenerational income mobility.
Base case Optimistic Pessimistic
Mean country income ($PPP; in logs)
0.99
(0)
0.99
(0)
0.99
(0)
Gini index -0.019
(0)
-0.019
(0)
-0.019
(0)
Parents’ national income class (from 1 to 20)
0.105
(0)
0.100
(0)
0.110
(0)
Adj. R2 0.81 0.80 0.83
Based on 116 countries, 20 ventiles for each, year 2002
The answer is: about 80 percent!The answer is: about 80 percent!(dependent variable: HH per capita income in $PPP )(dependent variable: HH per capita income in $PPP )
Base (optimistic, pessimistic) case about intergenerational income mobility in different parts of the world
6. Global financial crisis and global inequality
15 largest annual GDP per capita declines in the United States history
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
1946 1932 1908 1930 1914 1931 1893 1945 1894 1938 1921 1917 1896 1947 1904
Financial crisis 1893-96: 16%
Great Depresssion: 25%
End of war economy, 34%
Plutocratic and people’s recessions are not the same
thing
Plutocratic and people’s global growth rate in years of plutocratic recessions
-0.080
-0.060
-0.040
-0.020
0.000
0.020
0.040
0.060
0.080
1930 1931 1932 1954 1958 1960 1975 1982 1991
Plutocratic growth rate
People's growth rate
Shrinking GDPs People living in countries with negative growth rates (in milion)
(years of plutocratic recession in yellow)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Who is affected more: poor or rich countries?
The financial crisis 1890-95: relationship between initial GDP per capita and its
change during the crisis
AUS
AUT
BEL
CAN
CHEDEU
DNK
ESP
FIN FRA
GBR
ITA
NLD
NOR
NZL
PRT
SWEUSA
.8.9
11.1
ratio betw
een G
DPs
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000GDP per capitain 1890
The Great Depression 1928-33: relationship between initial GDP per capita and its
change during the crisis
AUS
AUT
BEL
CAN
CHE
DEU
DNK
ESP
FIN
FRA
GBRGRC IRL
ITA
NLD
NOR
NZL
PRT
SWE
USA.8.9
11.1
1.2
ratio betw
een G
DPs
2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000GDP per capitain 1929
World, by population, in the crisis 1930
twoway (scatter dlngdpppp laggdpppp if year==1930 [w=pop]) (lowess dlngdpppp laggdp> ppp if year==1930), yline(0) ytitle(growth rate) legend(off) xtitle(GDP per capita > in 1929) [from maddison_polity2.dta
-.2
-.1
0.1
grow
th r
ate
6 7 8 9GDP per capita in 1929
Unweighted correlation coefficient between growth rate and GDI per capita (in years of global recession)
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
1930 1931 1932 1954 1958 1960 1975 1982 1991
Negative coeff: rich countries decline more.
World, by population, in the crisis 1991
-.1
-.05
0.0
5.1
grow
th r
ate
6 7 8 9 10GDP per capita in 1990
twoway (scatter dlngdpppp laggdpppp if year==1991 & dlngdpppp<0.1 & dlngdpppp>-0.1 [w=pop]) (lowess dlngdpppp laggdpppp if year==1991), yline(0) ytitle(growth rate) legend(off) xtitle(GDP per capita in 1990) [from maddison_polity2.dta]
But after 1973-75, the Third World took 25 years to recover
Average people-weighted growth rate in Third World (excl. China)
0.0000
0.0100
0.0200
0.0300
0.0400
0.0500
0.0600
Implications
• First negative effect will be mostly felt by rich people (in particular, those with high financial assets) and rich countries
• Rates of GDP will decline more in rich countries• Then, the crisis will spread wider• Difficult to predict next effects: prices of raw
materials, dependence on exports, amount of debt
• Possible replay of the period 1980-2000 when growth rate of Third World declined by more than 1 percentage point
6. Globalization and income inequality
Causal effect of globalization (openness) on global inequality
• Channel 1. Different effect on within-national income distributions (difference between poor and rich countries; HOS and revisions)
• Channel 2. Different effect on growth rates of poor and rich countries (the openness premium should be higher for poor countries)
• Channel 3. Different effect on populous and small countries
• Depends on history: are populous countries rich or poor at a given point in time?
• Assume globalization is good for for poor, populous countries, no effect on within-national distribution
• In the current constellation, India and China grow faster => global inequality ↓ (mean income convergence, lower global inequality)
• Decouple poor and populous; let China and India be rich
• No change in individual effects of gloablization; mean convergence continues but global inequality may now go ↑
• Conclusion. Even if effects are known and unchanged, the outcome may differ.
Conclusion: “The age of inequality”?
Inequalities between countries have increased
Population weighted inequality between countries went down thanks to fast growth in China and India (Caveat: R/U differences in China and India have global implications)
Inequality among people in the world is very high (Gini around 70) but its direction of change is not clear
Within-country inequalities have increased in many countries including in the largest (US, UK, China, India, Russia)
7. Does Global Inequality Matter?
• No one in “charge” of it; there is no global government
• No one can do much about it
• No global taxation authority
Does global inequality matter?
• NO, according to Ann Krueger (2002):
“Poor people are desperate enough to improve their material conditions in absolute terms rather than to march up the income distribution. Hence it seems far better to focus on impoverishment than on inequality.”
• YES, according to Kuznets (1954)“…reduction of physical misery associated with
low income and consumption levels…permit[s] an increase…of political tensions”
BECAUSE
“the political misery of the poor, the tension created by the observation of the much greater wealth of other communities…may have only increased.”
What may be the effects of global inequality?
• Globalization increases awareness of differences in living standards (aspiration level changes; empirical studies show it)
• Leads to migration
• Greater likelihood of conflict (Jennifer Government)
We need some rules for global transfers
• They should flow from a rich to a poor country. That is easy.
• But they have to satisfy the same rules as at the national level, i.e.
• transfers should be globally progressive, that is flow from a richer person to a poorer person.
In addition transfers have national income inequality implications
Progressive transfer at the global level and worsening national distributions (may not
be politically sustainable)
T B
Income
Income distribution in poor country
Income distribution in rich country
Thus transfers have to satisfy
• Progressivity 1: reduce mean income differences between rich and poor countries
• Global progressivity: tax payers should be richer than beneficiaries
• National progressivities: in rich country, tax payers should be relatively rich (reduce rich country inequality) and in poor country, beneficiaries should be relatively poor (reduce poor country inequality)
• Book “Worlds Apart: Measuring International and Global Inequality”, Princeton UP, 2005
• Email: [email protected]
• Website: http://econ.worldbank.org/projects/inequality
Extra slides
1988 1993 1998 2002
Between country Gini (PPP dollars)
61.8 62.6 62.1 63.9
Share of total inequality (in %) 90 89 89 90
Between country Gini (US dollars)
69.5 71.7 70.8 73.3
Share of of total inequality (in %) 89 90 89 91
Share of between-country inequality in total inequality (05 ICP)
The rich and the poor (equal total income)
57, 3316
29, 2531
3, 990
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Rich people (in million)
Po
or
peo
ple
(in
mil
laio
n)
Top US percentile
Top US decile
Top global 1%
Percentage of global population living in countries with negative growth (in years of global plutocratic
recession)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1930 1931 1932 1954 1958 1960 1975 1982 1991
% o
f p
op
ula
tio
n li
vin
g in
co
un
trie
s w
ith
neg
ativ
e g
row
th