Cosmic Rays and

Climate Change:a brief summary

Arnold Wolfendale,Durham University

Tolya ErlykinBen LakenTerry Sloan

1. Global Mean Temperature rise from 1890 to 2010.

2. Effect of CR and other sources of ionization on clouds.

3. ‘CLOUD’ and Cloud Cover.4. Cosmic Rays and Lightning5. Lightning and the origin of Life.

Global T rise from 1950 to 2010 due, potentially, to CR

∆CR11 from 1950 – 2010> - 3%

L = ∆T/∆CRCR11 : CR intensity smoothed over 11-year cycle

Two anomalies!

Define L = ∆T/∆CR

Method Predicted ∆T (1950 / 2010)

1. L from 1890 / 1930, apply to 1950/2010 0.03oC

2. L from IPCC fit cf predicted for 1890/2010 0.003oC

3. L from 11 year solar cycle using p/p = 0.07oC 0.015oC

Conclusion

Upper limit for ∆T (1950/2010) due to CR is 0.03 oC, compared with actual: 0.7 oC, i.e. 4%

EVEN THIS COULD BE OF SOLAR ORIGIN

Effect of CR changes on Cloud Cover – and other ionization changes

INDIA(RADON)

Chernobyl

NuclearBomb tests

Bravo bomb15mt

Forbush Decreases

Positive CRCloud Cover

Electrical

‘CLOUD’ and Cloud CoverClouds of different types should have different

sensitivities to ionization.Stratiform should be most sensitive.They are very extended.

Only edge effects are effective in changing cloud cover.Very approximately∆CC/CC = (1/7) ∆CCN/CCN

Many km

(CCN = ‘charged condensation nuclei’)

‘Cloud’ and Cloud Cover

Kulmala et al. (2010) show that

∆CCN/CCN < 1%, for max CR change.

ConclusionCR have a negligible effect on Cloud Cover.

Lightning

Adam and God

SNR Model: A.D. Erlykin and AWW (2001)

Miller (1953) – and Miller & Urey

water, methane,ammonia, etc.(the ‘pre-biotic soup’)

Amino-acidsRNAMonomers

On average, every million years,

ICR(>1016eV) up by ~ 105 for ~ 30,000 years.

Probably enough to cause a sufficiently large frequency

of lightning discharges to cause production of RNA,

monomers, etc. in the window : 4.5 – 3.5 By BP.

after Parman

More recently – and more probably – the generation of

NOX by lightning will have had relevance to evolution.

NOX is welcome to plants and bad for humans.

Conclusions

1. CR have a very small effect on clouds.2. CR may be connected with the origin of life,

and its subsequent evolution.