ICES advice for 2008

North Sea

ICES advice for 2008

Martin Pastoors

(chair of the Advisory Committee on Fishery Management)

short version

New timing for North Sea advice

EC requested for earlier advice for North Sea Allows more time for stakeholder inputs

long-term strategies Expert group (WGNSSK) moved to early May Advice provided early June Some recruitment surveys in August / September Updates ONLY if substantial changes

Basis for the ICES advice for 2008

Assessment data Fisheries (landings, discards, catch rates) up to 2006 Surveys (including IBTS q1 survey in 2007) CPUE information (up to 2006)

Recruitment information Autumn surveys not yet available

• Only difference with previous years Recent average recruitment used in forecasts

Advisory meetings (on fisheries)

Plenary meetings May 2007

• Baltic

• Arctic

• Iceland & Greenland

• Faroe Islands

• Herring stocks

• North Sea (NEW !)

October 2007• North Sea (updates)

• Celtic seas / West Scotland

• Bay of Biscay / Iberian

• Widely distributed stocks

Regional orientation

Advisory report organized by “Ecoregion”

Changes to timing of advice

EC has requested ICES to provide most advice before the summer allows for stakeholder consultation processes focus on long-term strategies

This year: North Sea as experiment From 2008 onwards, for all stocks in EU waters Still needs consultation on what type of advice

Changes to ICES advisory structure

Three advisory committee’s Advisory Committee on

Fishery Management (ACFM)

Advisory Committee on Ecosystems (ACE)

Advisory Committee on the Marine Environment (ACME)

Layered system Expert groups Review groups (Subgroups) Advisory committee

Only one (part-time) paid chair

One advisory council oversee the advisory process make sure it adheres to quality

standards Advisory “bureau”

coordinate the advisory process 3-4 (part-time) positions

Expert groups responsible for science AND

drafting advice Review groups

responsible for final advice

Old New

North Sea stocksOverview

home

Stock trends: SSB

1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

5000

015

0000

2500

00

cod-347d

tonn

es

Bpa

Blim

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+0

04e

+05

8e+0

5

had-34

tonn

es

Bpa

Blim

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+0

01e

+05

2e+0

53e

+05

nop-nsea

tonn

es

Bpa

Blim

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+0

02e

+05

4e+0

5

ple-nsea

tonn

es Bpa

Blim

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+0

02e

+05

4e+0

5

sai-3a46

tonn

es

Bpa

Blim

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

040

000

8000

012

0000

sol-nsea

tonn

es

Bpa

Blim

SSB

Cod Haddock

Norway pout Plaice

Saithe Sole

1960 1970 1980 1990 20000.

00.

20.

40.

60.

81.

01.

2

cod-347d

F (

2-4)

Fpa

Flim

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

had-34

F (

2-4) Fpa

Flim

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

nop-nsea

F (

1-2)

F(pa) undefined F(lim) undefined

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

ple-nsea

F (

2-6)

Fpa

Flim

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

sai-3a46

F (

3-6)

Fpa

Flim

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

sol-nsea

F (

2-6)

Fpa

F(lim) undefined

MEANF Stock trends: fishing mortalityCod Haddock

Norway pout Plaice

Saithe Sole

1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

1000

000

2000

000

cod-347d

thou

sand

s, a

ge 1

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+0

02e

+08

4e+0

8 had-34

thou

sand

s, a

ge 0

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0e

+00

1.0e

+08

2.0e

+08

nop-nsea

thou

sand

s, a

ge 0

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+0

02e

+06

4e+0

6

ple-nsea

thou

sand

s, a

ge 1

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+0

02e

+05

sai-3a46

thou

sand

s, a

ge 3

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+0

02e

+05

4e+0

5

sol-nsea

thou

sand

s, a

ge 1

GM

REC Stock trends: recruitmentCod Haddock

Norway pout Plaice

Saithe Sole

Status of fish stocks (with assessments)

Only for Ecoregion North Sea“Unknown category” can includes stocks that are depleted or high

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006

greenorangeredunknown

02

46

81

0

ecoregion: NS N relative to fishing mortality reference points

N

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007

greenorangeredunknown

02

46

81

0

ecoregion: NS Nrelative to biomass reference points

N

SSB F

Advice overview

Area Stock SSB F Advice TAC Advice %changeNorth Sea Cod 1) Reduced At risk 0 20000 0

Haddock 1) Full sustainable 55400 55000 46400 -16%Whiting 2) Low Low 15100 23800 5000 -67%Saithe Full sustainable 136000 136000 150000 10%Plaice At risk sustainable 32000 50000 26000 -19%Sole Reduced sustainable 10800 15000 13900 29%Norway pout 3) Full 0 0Herring 1) At risk At risk 240000 341000 175000 -27%Sprat 3) Unknown Unknown 195000 170000

IIIa Cod (Kattegat) Reduced 0 731 0Plaice Unknown Unknown 9600 10625 9400 -2%Sole Full sustainable 740 900 970 31%Herring in IIIa and 22-24 Overexploited 99000 118500 71000 -28%

VIId Plaice Unknown Unknown 4000 5080 3500 -13%Sole Full sustainable 6440 6220 6590 2%

1 Only applies to human consumption fishery in the North Sea2 Advice applies to North Sea and VIId; TAC to North Sea only3 Only in-year advice

2007 2008State of the stock

Details by stock Cod North Sea, Eastern channel and Skagerrak Haddock North Sea and IIIa Whiting North Sea and VIId Saithe North Sea, VIa and IIIa Plaice North Sea Sole North Sea

Plaice Eastern Channel Sole Eastern Channel Plaice Skagerrak and Kattegat

Norway pout North Sea (for 2007)

( Sandeel North Sea: provided in October)( Elasmobranchs North Sea: no advice in 2007)( Nephrops North Sea: no advice in 2007)

CodNorth Sea, eastern Channel and Skagerrak

home

Cod

Assessment Age based, 2 surveys, landings + discards Estimates “unaccounted removals”

Issues Underreporting (2002-2005) Combined English and Scottish 3rd quarter surveys Continued unaccounted removals Accepted as analytical assessment

Cod: summary

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+

002e

+05

4e+

056e

+05

yieldto

nnes

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

Mean F (2-4)

1/ye

ar

Fpa

Flim

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

010

0000

020

0000

0

Recruitment age 1

thou

sand

s

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

010

0000

2000

00

SSB

tonn

esBpa

Blim

Cod: history of assessments

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005

SSB ('000 tonnes)

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1990 1995 2000 2005

Fishing mortality: 2-4

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1990 1995 2000 2005

Note: some of the previous assessment were presented as indicative of trends only. Ages over which mean fishing mortality is calculated was changed in 2004.

Cod: CPUE and stock trends

Mean-standardized catch rates of North Sea cod recorded by English trawlers fishing in the first quarter of the year, the 2+ cod biomass as estimated by the 2006 ICES WGNSSK assessment and the IBTS Q1 survey.

Cod: forecasts

14% reduced F held constant

14% reduced F in 2007, zero after

Cod: advice

Following the recovery plan Blim to be achieved in 2009 if F were reduced to 86%

of the F2006: total removals in 2008 of 76 500 t.

ICES advice Low stock size and recent poor recruitment: stock

cannot be rebuilt to Bpa in 2009 even with a zero catch. Simulations that with low recruitment and zero catch in

2008 and 2009 is likely to achieve rebuilding of the stock to Bpa by 2009 (“large growth potential”)

HaddockNorth Sea and IIIa

home

Haddock

Assessment Landings + discards + industrial bycatch 3 surveys to calibrate

Issues Strong 1999 yearclass; slow growing 2005 yearclass is above average

Agreed management plan

January 2007 Target F = 0.3, TAC constraint ICES advice on management plan: 27 October 2007 Conclusions

The agreed reference points in the management plan are consistent with the precautionary approach

Target F = 0.3 with TAC constraint ±15% leads on average to a <5% risk of B < Blim within the next 20 years.

Increasing the target F increases the risk. Although the management plan has not been fully tested (e.g. at

lower fishing mortalities), ICES concludes that the management plan can provisionally be accepted as precautionary and be used as the basis for advice.

Haddock: summary

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+

004e

+05

8e+

05yield

tonn

es

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

Mean F (2-4)

1/ye

ar Fpa

Flim

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+

002e

+08

4e+

08

Recruitment age 0

thou

sand

s

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+

004e

+05

8e+

05

SSB

tonn

es

Bpa

Blim

Haddock in Sub-area IV (North Sea) and Division IIIa: history

of assessments

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1990 1995 2000 2005

SSB ('000 tonnes)

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1990 1995 2000 2005


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 1995 2000 2005

Haddock: advice

Last year: Fishing at F=0.3: landings 2007 = 55 400 t. Associated discards: 32 500 t. Target F is in accordance with precautionary approach

New advice The agreed management plan can be provisionally

accepted as precautionary ICES therefore advises according to this plan. This implies a TAC of 49 300 t in 2008 (15% change in

TAC), which should include industrial bycatch..

Whitingin North Sea and Eastern Channel

home

Whiting

Assessment Assessment indicative of recent trends (1995 …) Discrepancies between historical survey data and

catches

Issues Recruitment in last 5 years appears very low

me

an

stan

da

rdis

ed S

SB

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

scogfs 1scogfs 2

enggfs 2ibts

combinedXSA

Tuning period

me

an

stan

da

rdis

ed S

SB

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

scogfs 1scogfs 2

enggfs 2ibts

combinedXSA

Tuning period

Whiting: “assessments”

catch + surveys

Surveys only

Whiting: trends in different areas

In the ICES 2006 report, research vessel surveys indicated a stable stock in the northern area and a declining stock in the southern area since 2001

Fisher surveys indicated a decline in the northern component from 2001 to 2005, and a stable or increasing southern component.

Recent reports by some fleets indicate very low catch rates in the southern North Sea and English Channel during the past two years.

Whiting: recruitment

Whiting: advice

Advice last year Recent average landings (2003-2005): 15 100 t.

New advice Low catches have led to low fishing mortality from 2002–2005 low recruitment has resulted in a declining SSB to the lowest

observed. Recent recruitment has been approximately 30% of average

recruitments (year classes 1994–2001). Given the relative reduction in recruitment it is necessary to

reduce future landings in order to keep fishing mortality low. Applying the reduction in recruitment to the average landings from

the past three years corresponds to human consumption landings of 5 000 t in 2008.

Saithein North Sea, Skagerrak, West of Scotland and Rockall

home

Saithe

Assessment Landings data, 2 CPUE series, 2 surveys

Issues No exploitation on juveniles (not available to fishery) Saithe management plan: target F 0.3

• will be evaluated in October 2007

• although ICES has not evaluated the agreed management plan, the target fishing mortality in the management plan is expected to give high long-term gains in the present situation

Saithe: summary

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

010

0000

2500

00yield

tonn

es

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Mean F (3-6)

1/ye

ar

Fpa

Flim

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+

002e

+05

Recruitment age 3

thou

sand

s

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+

002e

+05

4e+

05

SSB

tonn

es

Bpa

Blim

Saithe in Sub-area IV, Division IIIa (Skagerrak) & Sub-area

VI: history of assessments

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990 1995 2000 2005

SSB ('000 tonnes)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1990 1995 2000 2005


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

1990 1995 2000 2005

Saithe: advice

Last year Target F in management plan is precautionary and

gives higher long term gains Follow management plan; TAC 136 000 t.

New advice ICES has not evaluated the agreed management plan Target fishing mortality in the management plan is

expected to give high long-term gains ICES therefore recommends to limit landings in 2008 to

150 000 t.

• Area split: 91% in IV+IIIa, 9% in VI.

Plaice in the North Sea

home

Plaice

Assessment Landings + discards; 3 surveys Discards

• before 2000: model reconstruction

• 2000 and after: NL + UK + DK discards sampling

Issues Most recent information:nearly 80% of the catch by

number is discarded. all year classes since 2003 have been low

Plaice: catchlandings and discards

year

we

igh

t (1

00

0 to

nn

es)

50

100

150

200

250

300

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Plaice Sub-area IV (North Sea): summary

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

010

0000

2500

00yield

tonn

es GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Mean F (2-6)

1/ye

ar

Fpa

Flim

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+

002e

+06

4e+

06

Recruitment age 1

thou

sand

s

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+

002e

+05

4e+

05

SSB

tonn

es Bpa

Blim

Plaice: fishing mortality by component

discardslandings

Plaice Sub-area IV (North Sea): history of assessments

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1990 1995 2000 2005

SSB ('000 tonnes)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1990 1995 2000 2005


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1990 1995 2000 2005

Plaice: advice

Last year Rebuild to Bpa: landings 32 000 t. in 2007

New advice Rebuild to Bpa: landings 26 000 t in 2008

• TAC 2007: 50 000 t.

SoleNorth Sea

home

Sole

Assessment Landings data + 2 surveys + 1 CPUE series

Issues Main fishery in southern North Sea; more coastal. Mixed fishery with plaice; mesh size focussed on sole Fishing mortality just below Fpa in 2006 Yearclasses 2003 and 2004: weak Yearclass 2005: above average

Sole in Sub-area IV (North Sea): summary

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

010

000

2500

0

yield

tonn

es

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Mean F (2-6)

1/ye

ar Fpa

F(lim) undefined

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+

002e

+05

4e+

05

Recruitment age 1

thou

sand

s

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

040

000

8000

012

0000

SSB

tonn

es

Bpa

Blim

Sole in Sub-area IV (North Sea): history of assessments

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1995 2000 2005

SSB ('000 tonnes)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

1990 1995 2000 2005


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

1990 1995 2000 2005

Sole: advice

Advice last year rebuild to Bpa: landings 10 800 t.

New advice SSB above Bpa: landings 13 900 t.

Plaice in the Eastern Channel

home


Assessment Exploratory assessment; trends only Confirmed by survey-only assessment

Issues Stock identity (plaice in North Sea, Western Channel) Discarding of undersized plaice (not included) Conflicting signals in the data



Advice last year Stock does not appear to decline In the absence of short-term forecasts, ICES

recommends to maintain landings in 2007 at 4000 t, average of 2003–2005.

New advice In the absence of short-term forecasts, ICES

recommends that landings in 2008 do not increase above the average of landings from the last three years (2004–2006), corresponding to 3500 t.

Sole in the Eastern Channel

home


Assessment Landings + 2 CPUE series + 2 surveys

Issues Underreporting and misreporting of catches Discards of plaice in mixed flatfish fisheries Strong 2001 and 2004 yearclasses contribute to stock History of overestimating stock size

Sole in Eastern Channel: summary

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

010

0030

0050

00

yield

tonn

es

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Mean F (3-8)

1/ye

ar

Fpa

Flim

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

020

000

4000

060

000

Recruitment age 1

thou

sand

s

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

050

0010

000

SSB

tonn

es Bpa

Blim undefined

Sole in Division VIId (Eastern Channel): history of

assessments

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1990 1995 2000 2005

SSB ('000 tonnes)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

1990 1995 2000 2005


0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

1990 1995 2000 2005


Advice last year Fish according to Fpa; landings of 6 440 t.

New advice Fish according to Fpa; landings of 6 590 t.

Plaice in the Skagerrak and Kattegat

home

Plaice in IIIa

Assessment Surveys cover mainly inner part of IIIa Landings are mainly taken close to North Sea No basis for an assessment

Issues Stock identity (high total mortality) Assessments have been very uncertain for many years Recruitment and SSB in IIIa appear to high in recent

years (according to surveys)

Plaice in IIIa: distribution of landings

2006

Plaice in IIIa: survey distributions

Plaice in IIIa

Advice last year No analytical assessment Surveys indicate biomass increase. The advice is to maintain the current TAC of 9600 t for

2007.

New advice Indications that biomass and recruitment has

increased. No indications that the current catch level is detrimental

to the stock Advice for 2008 is not to increase the catches above

the most recent catch of 9400 t (2006).

Norway pout

North Sea and Skagerrak

home

Norway pout

Assessment Seasonal assessment method 1 commercial CPUE series + 2 surveys

Issues Recent recruitment low But 2005 yearclass just above average

Norway pout: summary

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

010

020

030

040

0

yield

tonn

es

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

Mean F (1-2)

1/ye

ar

F(pa) undefined F(lim) undefined

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0e

+00

1.0e

+08

2.0e

+08

Recruitment age 0

thou

sand

s

GM

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0e+

002e

+05

SSB

tonn

es

Bpa

Blim

Norway pout: advice

Suggested management plan by ICES In-year monitoring using surveys and exploratory

fishing Evaluation finished in February 2007

ICES advice No fishing unless new information shows that stock can

be rebuild to Bpa by 2008

More information:www.ices.dk

[email protected]

http://www.ices.dk/

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Documents

ICES advice for 2008