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In a Context of Discontinuity
Guiding Principles
FROM WHENCE …
You can cause a discontinuity …
CHANGE HAPPENS!
Competition • Bon Aqua upset the
comfortable world of Voltic and Nsu with superior marketing
Technological • CONSHIP has used
technology that allows customers see the progress of their jobs in real-time to build stronger customer bonds
Business model • Moving parcel post
went from the confines of Ghana Post to the bustle of transport hubs
FROM WHENCE …
… or it can happen to you
THE ONLY CONSTANT IN LIFE …
What crisis has your business faced in the last five years?
Have you encountered any major shifts in how you do business as a result?
Have you changed the sectors/segments in which you operate?
SUDDENLY …
STRATEGIC INFLECTION POINTSThe Fundamentals Change New Horizons OR The End
The impact of changing rules creates new opportunity to rise and signals the beginning of the end
MACRO CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL/LOCAL ECONOMIESNation-states To Networks As The Source Of Economic Power• Intra-ECOWAS trade stands at 31.5% (2011, ILO)
Traditions To Options As The Basis For Individual Behaviour • Mass-individualism
Export-led To Consumer Driven Economies• Fuelled By An Emerging Middle Class With
New Expectations
Government-controlled To Market-driven Economies• A New Model Of Economic Co-operation
And Co-ordination
Rural/Farm To Urban/Service Economy• The Locus Of New Opportunities
Labour-intensive To High-technology• The Basis For Competition/Job Creation
From Male Dominance To The Emergence Of Women• Voters, Workers, And Consumers
From West To East• As The Axis Of The Global Economy
IN THE SHORT-TERM: REVIEW YOUR COMPANY STRATEGY
Have the factors that informed the strategy
changed? If so what will be the impact?
Have any new factors emerged that did not exist
or were not known?
Does the current strategy and key actions address the
issues of the current operating environment and
what you see emerging?
Is the strategy robust enough to accommodate
short term plans and actions while building for
future growth?
What needs to change immediately?
What should the new focus be?
YOU ARE NOT ALONE!
Traditional business models are being shaken apart by
Rapidly changing consumer habitsNew business models and ideas New competitive environment
YOUR RESPONSIBILITY IS TO …
“… [create] the conditions for doing business in a
modern, competitive way in a global economic system”
“… guide your business … and place it in a position
where it can prosper in the new order.”
CHANGE IN GHANA …
PARADIGM FORCES
Substitutes
Competitors
Potential Competitors
Options
Consumers
Complimentary Products
Habits
Suppliers
Supply Chain
MASTERING PARADIGMS
SUBSTITUTES:
SUBSTITUTES: KOKO KING
Strategic PartnershipsComplimentary Dispensing
technology Dry Foods Technology School-feeding Programme
Dynamise SalesChannel Marketing:
VendorsCategory Marketing:
Breakfast & Morei-Sales:
Order Online
LoyaltyRewards Feedback Personalise Service
COMPETITION:
COMPETITION: CHALLENGE BOOKSHOP
Redefine your business
founders [] journeyed to difficult places to share the Gospel [] to glorify God by planting, strengthening, and partnering with churches around the world
Customised solutionsMobile Cinema
Mobile Bookshops
Local Follow up
Prison Ministry
and Chaplaincy
Young Searchers League
Mail Box Club
Conferences
Counselling Services
Specialisation For the past 50 plus years, … the leading name in the distribution of Christian literature in Ghana and offers the
best in Christian reading.
CONSUMERS:(Non-interest earning) e-money use is growing
Modern Trade share of retail spending doubled 26% of consumer plan to save
More people using the web to buy and sell
2050: Slightly more men; fewer new children Job prospects flat to negative
CONSUMERS: AQUAFRESH LTD
Align for Changing Attitudes
What better option […] to keep you at your best […]?
Sync with Changing Habits and Behaviour“offering high value for money” “meet your expectations for great taste, convenience,
nutrition and refreshment - every time”
Strategy RelevanceHealthy drink All occasions Convenient, take-along package
SUPPLIERS:
Strategic RelationshipsCommon Vision For
The Relationship
Disclosure Of Business
DriversContinuous
Improvement
Clearly Defined Roles &
Responsibilities
Real Metrics To Drive
Behaviour
Anticipating Business Needs
Strategic ImportanceVolatile Markets Merger & Acquisition
Expansion Of Supplier Value-added Services
ON THE CUSP AND UNAWAREBUILDING GREATNESS AND AVOIDING THE DESCENT INTO IRRELEVANCE
THE NATURE OF CHANGE
FIRST, HARDER TO DETECT BUT EASIER TO CONTROL …
THE HORIZONS THAT INFORM CHANGE
TIME
LEVE
L OF
VIA
BILIT
Y & R
ELEV
ANCE
SOME EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES Exploring the “Uncertain” opportunities
CREATING THE OPPORTUNITIES GLOBAL TRENDS, FUTURE EXPECTATIONS
AND THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY
THE NATURE OF CHANGE
THEN, EASIER TO OBSERVE BUT HARDER TO EXPLOIT
THE HORIZONS THAT INFORM CHANGE
TIME
LEVE
L OF
VIA
BILIT
Y & R
ELEV
ANCE
THE OPPORTUNITIES WE HAVE NOW Using Core Capabilities
SOME EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES Exploring the “Uncertain” opportunities
CREATING THE OPPORTUNITIES Global trends, future expectations and the
impact of technology
BUILDING GREATNESS AND AVOIDING THE DESCENT INTO IRRELEVANCE THE FIVE STAGES
Stage 1Constructive DestructionProactively reconstruct the competitive contextHubris born out of success
Stage 2Barbarian EffectsMaking the competition irrelevant Undisciplined pursuit of more Stage 3
Strategic InflectionFailure to see the perils of a dynamic Environment Denial of risks & Peril
Stage 4Grasping for Salvation
Stage 5Capitulation to Irrelevance or death
There Comes A Time ...
Source: How the Mighty Fall – Jim Collins
CONSTRUCTIVE DESTRUCTION• What can help your organisation/sector/country
create success in the first place?
• RISK:“Great enterprises can become insulated by success … and lose sight of the true underlying factors that created success in the first place.”
• OPPORTUNITY: A healthy tension between current commitments and the fear of what is to come Proactively reconstruct the competitive context
BARBARIAN EFFECTS• How does your organisation/sector/Government
avoid the dilution of purpose-driven growth?
• RISK: “Companies may overreach by making undisciplined leaps into areas where they cannot be great or growing faster than their ability to fill key spots with capable people.”
• OPPORTUNITY: Focus on making the competition irrelevant Rigorous succession planning
STRATEGIC INFLECTION• What does your organisation/sector/Government do to
avoid a failure to see the perils of a dynamic environment?
• RISK: “Companies in stage 3 begin to discount or explain away disturbing data, blame outside forces, and take outsized risks without giving enough weight to the consequences.”
• OPPORTUNITY: Reasonable proof as input for risk-taking on the ‘next big thing’ Look inside for the cause of stagnation/decline; don’t just reorganise
Stage 1Constructive DestructionProactively reconstruct the competitive contextHubris born out of success
Stage 2Barbarian EffectsMaking the competition irrelevant Undisciplined pursuit of more Stage 3
Strategic InflectionFailure to see the perils of a dynamic Environment Denial of risks & Peril
Stage 4Grasping for Salvation
Stage 5Capitulation to Irrelevance or death
There Comes A Time ...
Source: How the Mighty Fall – Jim Collins
WELL-FOUNDED HOPE
"The path to recovery lies first and foremost in returning to sound management practices and
rigorous strategic thinking."
GRASPING FOR SALVATION• How would your organisation/sector/Government
address its turnaround?
• RISK:“Instead of getting back to the disciplines that made them great, companies take dramatic action, seeking a silver bullet solution.”
• OPPORTUNITY: Avoid the temptation of silver bullets Focus on progression with consistency
CAPITULATION TO IRRELEVANCE OR DEATH• What does your organisation/sector/Government
do
• RISK: The company surrenders or runs out of options and cash. Hope alone is not enough; you need resources.
• OPPORTUNITY: Reasonable proof as input for risk-taking on the ‘next big thing’ Look inside for the cause of stagnation/decline; don’t just reorganise
NEVER GIVE IN …• Never give up your core purpose.
• Be willing to change tactics• Never give up on the idea of building a great company.
• Be willing to kill failed business ideas, even those operations you've been in for a long time
• Never give up on the principles that define your culture• Be willing to evolve into an entirely different portfolio of activities, even to the point
of zero overlap with what you do today • Never give up on the discipline to create your own future.
• Be willing to embrace the inevitability of creative destruction• Never give up faith in the ability to prevail
• Be willing to embrace loss, to endure pain, to temporarily lose freedoms• Never--ever--give up on your core values.“
• Be willing to form alliances with former adversaries, to accept necessary compromise