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Hillsborough County Deserves Better Why the One Percent Sales Tax For Transit Should Not Be On the Ballot. Jim Hosler, Owner Demographic Decision Dynamics, LLC www.demographic3d.com [email protected]. So, why not let the public vote?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Jim Hosler, OwnerDemographic Decision Dynamics, LLC
www.demographic3d.com [email protected]
Vote on what? Cost? Revenue? Operating and maintenance?
If Tampa wants it, let them pass it…incredible disservice to unincorporated Hillsborough County
There is no business plan, voters deserve respect The reputation of the BOCC…it is HC’s institution Elected bodies should only transit technically and
financially sound proposals to the voters… IF we need transit in the future, another failure won’t help Transit is for congestion…what congestion for transit? The underlying demographic data supporting the need for
transit are a SCIENTIFIC FRAUD…outside peer review? Stop Staff From Spending Anymore $$$ on This
NOW!!!
No scientific evidence of a benefit to the economy
Greatest positive impact within .25 miles of station stops
Economic benefits of mass transit always involve a TRANSFER of wealth or jobs within a region
FTA – cost overruns are a “common phenomenon”
Harms the bus component if revenue and ridership drops…most flexible component
All the current evidence in support is anecdotal Boston – cannot support itself with a one
percent sales tax D.C. Metro -- $36 million in Stimulus funds and
$150,000,000 in more Federal funds this year Charlotte – 51% increase in cost of future
expansions…$48 million per mile for first 9 miles, $101 million per mile for expansion
Phoenix – Expansion is on hold due to decline in sales taxes and increase in costs
New Urbanism and/or Neo-Traditional Planning A return to the good ole days when we all road trains to
work and walked to the store? We are all SUPPOSED TO desire Disney’s Celebration Land Planning was invented at the University of Chicago
as a reaction to “Big Business”…evil big business The AICP designation was invented in the 1970’s…a
professional designation to control lives “They know better”…permeates the 1% tax proposal It is like a RELIGION…non-believers simply can’t see the
light…two types of hubris
High Speed Rail half-promise
Judge the likelihood of the follow-on money…2010??
Look at the source…the Fed’s don’t have the money
Another reason to wait on the politics
Article in Forbes… Tampa Bay has the
worst commute in the country
Really…look at the methodology
If the article supports anything, it supports a regional approach
Our 1% Tax is only for Hillsborough…
The Mayor “suggests” how the BOCC can spend it’s tax money…the 25% going to roads
Proposes that the 25% will equal $2.4 Billion over 30 years…don’t worry about the details of the offer
$2.4 Billion is 25% of $9.7 Billion over 30 years Assumes an average annual collection $324
Million At it’s peak in 2006, the CIT was collecting the
1% equivalent of $214 Million Can any of this current bureaucracy be trusted? BOCC is dancing to the tune of the Mayor
Max Weber, 1921, “Once a bureaucracy is fully established, it is the hardest to change”
Coupled with ideology and a compliant press, bureaucracy steamrolls common sense
Those bureaucracies with the most to gain – MPO and HART – are using tax dollars to promote the tax by “educating the public”
Scientific fraud, yes fraud The BOCC is feeling the weight of this
inertia…where are their spines?
1) Bureaucratic Inertia…Staff are still spending Millions and will not stop unless the BOCC votes no on the ballot initiative
2) The Sales Tax is regressive and unstable3) The underlying demographic projections
are, scientifically fraudulent4) Too many unknowns…no methodology, just
politics and the City of Tampa, selected Transit Routes One and Two
5) Local governance issues – TBARTA, Eminent Domain and City of Tampa interference
December 2006 (HC)
• 570,121 jobs• 18,808 unemp.• 3.2% unemp. rateNovember 2009
(HC)• 530,839 jobs• 70,143 unemp.• 12.1% unemp. rate
And, transit will not create permanent, private jobs
Nearly half of local homeowners are upside-down in mortgages
Tampa Bay record # of bankruptcies 2009 – 28,504
Raising local taxes will add to the uncertainty coming from Washington and Tallahassee
Value-Added-Tax coming from the Feds? Health care and carbon tax increases? Why put ourselves at a local disadvantage
for planning theory? Florida – lost a net of 31,179 residents
due to net out-migration 08-09…1st to 45th in migration since 2000
Unstable 1st: 75 Recession & 81 Recession in Fla.?
Unitary Tax and the Sales Tax on Services proposed in the early 1980’s
In FY2006, we collected $107,000,000 in CIT, and in FY2009 we collected $89,000,000
6% annual increases prior to 2006 have turned into 10% annual declines…
Debt Service? $29 Million in 08/09 – 1/3 of the Collection – they will want to bond this 1%
At what cost?
Does thislook stable?
What is the trend-line?
Is thisbondable,and at whatcost?
Demographic Decision Dynamics, LLCwww.demographic3d.com [email protected] Source: Hillsborough County Finance
Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, 11/09 Florida: Second most REGRESSIVE TAX
SYSTEM – Fla. poor pay a much larger share of income to taxes
Sales Tax already consumes 9.4% of income for LT $17,000 in Fla.…almost 14% with property taxes
How would you like to pay 10% of your income in Sales Tax?
The new one cent will make Hillsborough County the most regressive county in the second most regressive state!!
And, for what? Planning theory??
Admittedly created to be “transit friendly” Hillsborough has had net out-migration for at
least two years…need to wait on the 2010 Census benchmark
2000-2009: 18.4% of growth in City of Tampa 2006-2025: 38.6% of growth in the City of
Tampa, according to new fraudulent projections What incentives would be needed to make
this shift happen? Cash and the City’s Land Development Code for a future Mayor
NW Hills. & Greater Brandon built-out??
Tampa’s Core: South of Hillsborough and North of SR60 (including downtown and Harbor Island) in City limits
Net of 91,000 residents added (06-25) – over 38,000 new homes –”taken from” Unincorporated HC
Net of 100,000 new jobs added to Tampa’s Core Inconsistent with the rest of all the comp. plans &
elements – water, wastewater, schools, parks, etc. Would existing Tampa Core residents want the
growth if they knew about it? Are the Unincorporated County’s water &
wastewater bonds or future bonding capacity in jeopardy?
Routes seem to change every month No business plan…why should the public loan
money when a bank would not? Why were transit routes 1 and 2 selected?
Politics… Does the State have the 25% match? What if we pass the 1% tax, and the Feds or State
don’t contribute? HART grant application with FTA is apparently
only for transit routes 1 and 2 What about the other routes…Another
penny(s)?? Bait and Switch??
BAITAND SWITCH?
HOW MANYMORE 1%SALES TAXESNEEDED FORTHE ENTIRESYSTEM?
Why isn’t TBARTA in the lead? Why not share the risk? Does our MPO and HART have the organizational
capacity? A citizens committee as oversight – – it will still be getting
its data from the MPO and HART, trust us?? Which agency is going to conduct the many years-worth
of eminent domain actions? Rail transit needs replacement like roads…how will it be
funded? Substitute for the user’s fee of the gas tax? Odds and ends…• Tampa-Centrist proposal…Urban Service Area
FOREVER??• USF employment HUB…more grant $$ don’t = jobs• Cars are not going away…serious emergency evacuation
issues
Jim HoslerDemographic Decision Dynamics, LLC