2010.01.26

Long-term Disaster Recovery Processes:Processes:

Lessons Learned From The 1995 Kobe Earthquake

Haruo HayashiKyoto UniversityKyoto University

2010.01.26

Action ResearchAction ResearchThere is nothing more practical than a good theory K Lewinthan a good theory K. Lewin

過去の知見と新しい技術を 現地の対応支援に生かす過去の知見と新しい技術を、現地の対応支援に生かす

Implementation

TheoryTheory PracticePractice

ImplementationSharing

Theory理論

Theory理論

Practice実践

Practice実践

Research

現場活動を通して、新しい問題を発見し、解決法を研究する

2010.01.26

2005

M6 9M6.9 Kobe EarthquakeJanuary 17, 1995 J y ,

Where is Kobe?

出典：日本の地震活動<追補版>に加筆

2010.01.26

Fi T S dFirst Ten Seconds

2010.01.26

Disaster Impacts of Kobe EarthquakeDisaster Impacts of Kobe Earthquake (1995.1.17)

• Dead 6,433• Injured 40 071• Injured 40,071• Damages Housing

UnitsUnits 444,900

• Shelters 1,153• Homeless 316,678,

2010.01.26

Japanese Disasters by MortalitiesJapanese Disasters by Mortalities

M t litMortality

Earthquakes & Tsunamis

Floods & Land Slides

45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00

Year

2010.01.26

Majority of People Were KilledMajority of People Were Killed Because of Housing Collapses

5.7%2.7%1.2%

5.7%1.2%

Collapse

Severe

84.6%Moderate

Slight

No

災害過程シミュレーションチーム 地震災害過程の総合シミュレーションに関する研究

2010.01.26

What is meant by Collapsed Housings

災害過程シミュレーションチーム 地震災害過程の総合シミュレーションに関する研究

2010.01.26

Severe Damage for Lifeline Systems

Damage Recovery in Power 2,600,000 9 daysGas 850,000 3 months

Water 1,300,000 1 monthSwage 260 km 3 months Phone 193,000 2 weeks

2010.01.26

Recovery Process of Utility Services

%

Recovery Process of Utility Services

%

Electricity

Water

Gas

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Weeks

2010.01.26

Damage & Losses:Damage & Losses:99,630 Million US Dollar Worth

Public

Business7%

Facilities9%

99,630

BuildingsLifelines

25%

99,630MUSD

59%

2010.01.26

By experiencing unprecedented l f b th k di tscale of urban earthquake disaster,

we learned

L T R M tLong Term Recovery Management became an important new issue for disaster research community

It took 10 years before the direct f h kimpact of earthquake was overcome

2010.01.26

Three Goals of Recovery PlanThree Goals of Recovery Plan

R t ti D t t d CitiPhysical Recovery

Reconstructing Destructed Cities+

Economic RecoveryRevitalizing Local Economies

H l i Di Vi iLife Recovery

Helping Disaster Victims

2010.01.26

Importance ofImportance of Recovery Planning

• Recovery is not just restoring what it was• Recovery is not just restoring what it wasbefore the disasterR i h f li i• Recovery is a great chance for realizing abetter and sustainable way of life: a newidealideal

• Recovery planning is the key for takingd d dcoordinated and cooperative actions to

realize the new ideal among allstakeholdersstakeholders

2010.01.26

Municipalities with Recovery Plan1,000,000

Municipalities with Recovery Planif 1,000+ House or Over 10% of Stock Damaged

100,000

With Recovery Plan

Without Recovery Plan

Kobe

Nishinomiya

10,000

stroyed

AmagasakiTakarazuka

ItamiAshiya

Akashi

Toyonaka

NagaokaOsaka

1,000

Hou

ses Des OdiyaKawanishiOsaka

100

Num

ber o

f 

10

M ki H hi & T (2007)

1

0.01 0.1 1 10 100

%

% Maki, Hayashi, & Tamura (2007)

2010.01.26

Basic Structure of Recovery ProgramBasic Structure of Recovery Program

Individual Assistance for VictimsIndividual Assistance for Victims

MajorIndustries

MajorIndustries

SmallBusiness

SmallBusiness HousingHousing Land Use

PlanningLand UsePlanning

InfrastructureInfrastructure

2010.01.26

How Far We Came for over 10 yearsHow Far We Came for over 10 years

Individual Assistance for VictimsIndividual Assistance for Victims

MajorIndustries

MajorIndustries

SmallBusiness

SmallBusiness HousingHousing

Land Use

Planning

Land Use

PlanningPlanningPlanning

InfrastructureInfrastructure

2010.01.26

Ph sical Reco erPhysical Recovery

Reconstructing Destructed Cities:

SuccessSuccess

2010.01.26

What was doneWhat was done• Wise Land Use PlanningWise Land Use Planning

– Planning First– Moratorium for the First Two months to prohibit p

building construction • Quick Debris Removal: 1 year

– Recycle debris by discriminating materials• Quick Restoration of Infrastructure:

– In 2 years– Basis of all kinds of recovery activities

• Providing Places to Live for Victims: – In 5 years, no temporary housings left– Enforce ‘building codes’ strictly for a higher

seismic performance

2010.01.26

Why successWhy success

• Based on Lessons Learned from Mnay Past Disasters– 1923 Kanto Earthquake, – Post WWII ReconstructionPost WWII Reconstruction– Large Scale Fire Incidents

• Specific Numerical Targets were E t bli h dEstablished– In the First Five Years, Physical Recovery

C l dwas Completed

2010.01.26

Long-term Physical RecoveryLong term Physical RecoveryFrom July, １９９５ to March, 2000

Residential Area Commercial/ResidentialMixed Area

Higashinada Ward, Kobe City Nagata Ward. Kobe City

2010.01.26

Economic Reco erEconomic Recovery

Revitalizing Local Economies:

Partially SuccessPartially Success

2010.01.26Monitoring Economic Recoveryby Power Consumptionby Power Consumption

2010.01.26

Changes in GDP & GRP after EqChanges in GDP & GRP after Eq120%

115%

120%

All Japan

105%

110%J p

T k

100%

Tokyo

90%

95% Hyogo

Kobe City

85%

Kobe City

80%1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

2010.01.26

Three Basic Economic Recovery PatternsThree Basic Economic Recovery Patternsafter Kobe EQ

Immediate boom & following slumpEx. Building Reconstruction

Immediate boom & following slump

d l f llEx. Daily Consumption

Immediate slump & following recovery

Immediate slump & No full recovery

Ex Economic Activities w/ Competitors

p y

Ex. Economic Activities w/ CompetitorsImport & Export at Kobe Harbor

2010.01.26

M it i E i RMonitoring Economic Recoveryby City Statistics

14 14

y y

68

1012

F13 Exports (Foreign Trade)

68

1012 F14 Imports (Foreign Trade)Exports

(Foreign Trade) Imports (Foreign Trade)

-2024

-20246

-10-8-6-42

-10-8-6-42

-14-1210

-07

-01

-07

-01

-07

-01

-07

-01

-07

-01

-07

-01

-07

-01

-07

-01

-07

-01

-07

-14-12-10

-07

-01

-07

-01

-07

-01

-07

-01

-07

-01

-07

-01

-07

-01

-07

-01

-07

-01

-07

92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 92 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01

Katatani & Hayashi (2002)

2010.01.26

Why Partial SuccessWhy Partial Success• Over-concentration of national governmentOver concentration of national government

money and work for a very short time period killed local business recovery– Major Contractors in Tokyo got contracts– Little “Trickle-down” effect for local small business

10 years worth housing renewal was completed in 3 years– 10 years worth housing renewal was completed in 3 years, followed by big economic slump

Over reliance on Public Spending by Victims• Over-reliance on Public Spending by Victims– Little Initiative for Promoting a New Economy Development – Government was the only risk takery

• Customers Never Waited for recovery– Shift to competitors and never returned to old daysShift to competitors and never returned to old days– Importance of Business Continuation Plan

2010.01.26

Life Reco erLife Recovery

Helping Disaster Victims:

Partial SuccessPartial Success

2010.01.26

Life RecoveryLife Recovery

• New DevelopmentNobody Can Define• Nobody Can Define – Scope of Work– Desired End State– Need for Ethnographic Inquiry of eed o t og ap c qu y o

Meaning of Recovery • Public Help was provided mainly for• Public Help was provided mainly for

Low-Income and/or Senior Citizens

2010.01.26

Seven Elements for Life Recovery489500 (30.1%)

Seven Elements for Life Recovery

407

400

450 (25.1%) Ｎ＝1623

300

350

197

154 154 138200

250 (12.1%)

(9.5%) (9.5%) (8 5%)154 154 138

84100

150

200 (9.5%) (9.5%) (8.5%)

(5.2%)

50

100

0Housing Community Mental

Physical Health

GovernmentalAssistance

2010.01.26

R ili M d lResilience Model

DisasterPreparedness

Hazard-SpecificResilience Preparedness

Mental S i l

Resilience

PersonalAssets

MentalPhysical Health

Social Network

PersonalLife Basis

FinancialSituation Housing

Multi-HazardResilience

SocialI f

Community Governmental

Resilience

InfrastructureSupport Assistance

2010.01.26

Holistic Recovery ResearchHolistic Recovery Researchby Hyogo Prefecture and Kyoto University

1999(4th)

Longitudinal Panel Study

ries

N=1289

Pretest

N 486

(4th)

N=364 N=297pled

vey

Ser

2001 2003 2005

N=717

N=486 N 364

m S

amp

nal S

urv

2001(6th)

N 1203Rand

os

Sect

io

ΣN=12032003 N=1203

Cros

s

(8th)

N=10282005(10th)

2010.01.26

R Ti liRecovery Timeline• When the disaster victims thought the followingsWhen the disaster victims thought the followings

were recovered or restored• Chronological Change in Percentage of those who

thought recovered in terms of log scale

Work and/or School (n=405)

thought recovered in terms of log scale

Housing issues (n=435)

Fi i l b d ( 404)Financial burden (n=404)

Daily routine (n=450)y ( )No more victims (n=409)

Local economy (n=403)Kimura et al. (2006)

2010.01.26

100％

90

① Work/School② Housing issue (n=435)③ Financial burden (n=404)④ daily routine (n=450)

Work/School Resumption

1 month

Psychological Recovery

80% in 10 yrs

70

80 ⑤ No more victims (n=409)⑥ Local economu (n=403)

Bold line: the 2004 Niigataken Chubu earthquake

50

60

① ②④①H④H ②H

Thin line: the 1995 Kobe earthquake

40

③

⑤

③H

⑤HPersonal

Recovery Design 6 12 months

EconomicRecovery

20

30

⑥ ⑥H

6 – 12 months y50% in 10 yrs

0

10⑥

10/23 Midnight Mornin /24 26 /30 Nov March/06 Oct 2006 2007 2014Dec

⑥H

10/23 Midnight

10 102 103 104100

Morning

/24-26 -/30 Nov March/06 Oct 2006-2007-2009

-2014

hours

Dec

Kimura et al. (2006)X=log hours passed

2010.01.26

National economy stronglyNational economy strongly influences Life Recovery

60.0

L

¥25,000

調査時期と日経平均株価NIKKEI 225 Stock Average at survey points

50.0

Life Re

+1SD++

+

¥20,000

40.0

ecovery

AVG

+¥15,000

30 0

y Inde -1SD

---

¥10,000

30.0

ex

¥5,000

20.02001 2003 20051995

¥01995.01 1996.01 1997.01 1998.01 1999.01 2000.01 2001.01 2002.01 2003.01 2004.01 2005.01 2006.01

2010.01.26

Bird's-eye view of life recovery process:Bird s eye view of life recovery process: The 2003 study results (N=1,203, Jan. 2003)Community Empowerment

公・共・私型の

社会意識地域活動

Community EmpowermentActive Citizenship⑤Preparedness⑦Rltn to Gov

③CommunityRebuilding

＋

＋⑦Rltn to Gov.

＋

＋＋

＋

＋＋

Encounter To Sig. Other

－

震災体験の評価

地域における

人間関係の

豊かさ

Event Evaluation ②Social Ties

Life

＋

＋＋

＋

生活復興感 復興過程Life RecoveryLifeRecoveryProcess

①Housing ⑥Income

＋

+

＋－

震災の影響Event Impact

DamageAlleviation

⑥Income④Stress Manag’t

EQ D

+

－

＋

EQ Damage-2003 Model

2010.01.26

Bird's-eye view of life recovery process:Bird s eye view of life recovery process: The 2005 study results （N=1,028, Jan. 2005)C i E

公・共・私型の

社会意識地域活動

Community Empowerment

⑤Preparedness ③CommunityRebuilding

＋

＋ ＋＋

＋

Encounter To Sig. Other

⑦Relation to Government

震災体験の評価

地域における

人間関係の

豊かさ

Event Evaluation ②Social Ties

＋

＋

＋

生活復興感 復興過程Life Recovery

①Housing＋

＋

－

LifeRecoveryProcess

＋

震災の影響Event Impact

Damage Alleviation

⑥Income

④Physical &－

＋

－

＋

Psychological Stress

－2005 Model

2010.01.26

Towards Integrated Model of RecoveryTowards Integrated Model of RecoveryRelationship among Three Goals

E i Rイメージを表示できません。メモリ不足のためにイメージを開くことができないか、イメージが破損している可能性があります。コンピュータを再起動して再度ファイルを開いてください。それでも赤い x が表示される場合は、イメージを削除して挿入してください。

as a ResultEconomic Recovery

イメージを表示できません。メモリ不足のためにイメージを開くことができないか、イメージが破損している可能性があります。コンピュータを再起動して再度ファイルを開いてください。それでも赤い x が表示される場合は、イメージを削除して挿入してください。

Revitalizing as a ResultRevitalizingLocal Economies

as a Toolイメージを表示できません。メモリ不足のためにイメージを開くことができないか、イメージが破損している可能性があります。コンピュータを再起動して再度ファイルを開いてください。それでも赤い x が表示される場合は、イメージを削除して挿入してください。

HelpingDisaster Victims

イメージを表示できません。メモリ不足のためにイメージを開くことができないか、イメージが破損している可能性があります。コンピュータを再起動して再度ファイルを開いてください。それでも赤い x が表示される場合は、イメージを削除して挿入してください。

ReconstructingDestructed Cities

Physical Recovery Life Recovery

2010.01.26

Holistic Recovery Policy ModelHolistic Recovery Policy Model

H iFunding

M h iPrograms

-Housing-Social Capital-Micro-finance-Income/JobsDirect

Mechanism

IndirectMeasures

FinancialSources

L

Income/Jobs-Physical/Mental Health CareMeasures

Sources-Subsidy-Loans-Tax Exemption

Eco

ife Rec

DirectMeasures

ManagingAuthorities

OperationAgencies

Tax Exemption

-Physical RecoveryInfrastructure restoration

onomic

covery

Infrastructure restorationPublic building construction

-New Regulation/deregulation-Technical supports

Recove

y

(Block Grants Program)Technical supports

-Human Resource Training-New business creation

ery

IndirectMeasures

2010.01.26

Towards Integrated Model of Recoveryg yRelationship among Three Goals

• Programs– Life recovery is the ultimate goalg– Use both Direct and Indirect Measures– Economic recovery is an indirect measure for life

recoveryrecovery– Physical recovery is an indirect meaure for

economic recovery • Funding Mechanism

– Identify Funding sources, Managing Authorities, and Operating Agenciesand Operating Agencies

– National Government is not a single resource– Community Block Grant ApproachCommunity Block Grant Approach

2010.01.26

SummarySummaryLong Term Recovery is a time consuming and complicated processpLong Term Recovery Management became an important new issue for disaster researchers and practitionersTh t l t th l f t b hi dThere at least three goals of recovery to be achieved: Physical recovery, Economic recovery, and Life recoveryActivities for achieving these three goals should be g gcoordinatedEconomic recovery should be the prime target, se ph sical reco er as the tool to achie e it anduse physical recovery as the tool to achieve it, and

life recovery as a consequencePre-planning of recovery strategy really helps prevent andPre planning of recovery strategy really helps prevent and reduce potential damagesRecovery planning should be holistic in nature, and participatory in actionparticipatory in actionDon’t rush, take time for recovery