Mainstreet Mid October National

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 5,630 Canadians by Smart IVR on October 6-7, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Results were weighed by language, age

and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

DEAD HEAT AS LIBERALS SURGEOctober 9, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new national Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Conservatives and Liberals in a close race for first as the Liberals surge in Ontario. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of 1.31%, 19 times out of 20.

Among Leaning & Decided Voters the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 1% - a statistical tie, 36% to 35% with the NDP well back at 20%.

The Liberals have surged in Ontario while the NDP have been slipping - noticeably so in Qubec where we now have them in third, behind both the Liberals and Conservatives though this is within the margin of error, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.

The election really has come down to a two horse race in the final stretch. If those Quebec numbers hold the NDP would lose seats to all three parties. In the Greater Montreal area the Liberals would be the main beneficiary while the Conservatives can look to gains in and around Qubec City. For the Bloc, there are pickup opportunities in rural Qubec and Gilles Duceppe faces a much easier path now to reclaim his seat.

In Ontario the Liberals now lead the Conservatives 44% to 37%, a 7 point lead with the NDP at 14%. For the Conservatives these have to be worrying numbers. Liberal support is high enough to knock out incumbents in the 905, the Tories need the NDP to rebound so they can pull some of these seats out on vote splits.

In Battleground BC we still see a three way race but now with the Conservatives in the lead. The NDP are not far behind at 29% and the Liberals are one point back at 28% with the Green Party steady at 10%. For the Greens there are still pickup opportunities and if the NDP number continues to dip in the province it may make it easier for Elizabeth May to add to her caucus. There may be some surprises at the end of the night.

In Manitoba, its still a two way race between the Liberals and Conservatives. In Saskatchewan however the NDP still have the numbers to gain new seats if they do not begin to bleed to the Liberals. Our recent Saskatchewan poll found interesting numbers for Regina and Saskatoon which stand ready to elect non-Conservative MPs for the first time in a long while thanks to redistribution.

When asked what topical issue making headlines has influenced them the most, Canadians said it was the Economy (35%). Surprisingly, 9% of Canadians cited the Trial of Mike Duy as having made an impact on their decision despite it being one of the very first stories of the campaign. Not many (5%) cited the discussion of the Niqab but that is not to say it has not had an impact. In Qubec, 9% cited it as the most important story. Just because it isnt the most important story doesnt mean its not important. Certainly the Bloc Qubcois and Conservative party have calculated this is an issue that plays well for them.

As the campaign finally winds down to an end we still dont know who will win come Election night. What we do know is these last few days will be exciting - as Canadians sit down to Thanksgiving dinner they will have important choices to make, finished Maggi. About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs. Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.

-30-Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]

A2

A3

CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUBECOISGREEN PARTY

BC33%29%28%

x10%

AB56%13%27%

x4%

SK47%29%20%

x4%

MB47%19%31%

x3%

QC27%25%27%17%4%

ON37%14%44%

x5%

Atlantic25%28%42%

x6%

CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UD

CONSERVATIVENDPLIBERALBLOC QUBECOISGREEN PARTY

36%20%35%4%5%

-1%-4%+6%-%-2%

CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC

36%

20%

35%

4% 5%

A4

CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLE

BC29%25%24%

x9%13%787

AB51%11%25%

x4%9%908

SK37%23%17%

x4%19%577

MB40%14%27%

x2%17%618

QC25%23%25%15%3%9%

1040

ON35%13%40%

x5%8%

1280

CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDED

Certain34%18%31%3%5%9%

Might27%17%33%1%5%17%

Likely33%12%33%4%5%13%

Unlikely23%21%21%7%5%22%

CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3425%20%40%5%6%5%449

35-4937%19%24%3%5%12%

1060

50-6433%15%31%4%4%13%1914

65+39%17%28%3%3%10%

2207

Female32%19%28%3%5%12%

3084

Male34%16%34%4%4%8%

2546

The Question Was:If the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?

Party and Leader Name were givenie. The Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper

Atlantic22%22%36%

x5%16%420

CONSERVATIVE (CPC)NDPLIBERAL (LPC)BLOC QUBECOIS (BQ)GREEN PARTY (GPC)UNDECIDED (UD)

33%18%31%3%5%10%

+1%-2%+7%

--1%-5%

A5


33%

18%

31%

3% 5% 10%

A6

Regional Margins of Error:British Columbia +/- 3.49%

Alberta +/- 3.25%Saskatchewan: +/- 4.08%

Manitoba: +/- 3.94%

British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba

A7

Regional Margins of Error:Ontario +/- 2.74%Quebec +/- 3.04%Atlantic +/- 4.78%

Ontario Quebec Atlantic

A8

CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUBECOISGREEN PARTY

BC33%29%27%

x10%

AB56%12%28%

x4%

SK46%29%21%

x4%

MB49%17%33%

x2%

QC28%25%27%17%4%

ON38%14%43%

x5%

Atlantic26%26%42%

x6%

CONSERVATIVENDPLIBERALBLOC QUBECOISGREEN PARTY

37%20%35%4%5%

-1%-3%+4%

--2%

37%

20%

35%

4% 5%


WHICH PARTY ARE YOU LEANING TOWARDS? (UNDECIDED ONLY)

A9


11%

11%

16%

2%3%

57%

A10

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you wil change you mind before the next election?

CONSERVATIVESTRONG 84%MIGHT CHANGE MIND 14%DONT KNOW 2%

NDPSTRONG 63%MIGHT CHANGE MIND 29%DONT KNOW 7%

LIBERALSTRONG 68%MIGHT CHANGE MIND 23%DONT KNOW 8%

84%

14%

2%

63%

29%

7%

68%

23%

8%

And who would be your second choice?

A11

14%

32%

23%

4% 10%

19%


A12

During the campaign a number of stories have made headlines at dierent stages, which issue has most aected the way you will vote?

TRIAL OF MIKE DUFFYTHE ECONOMYTPPNIQABREFUGEE CRISISSOMETHING ELSENOT SURE

18-3410%33%5%4%7%

22%19%

35-498%

36%6%5%6%19%20%

50-649%35%4%5%7%19%20%

65+8%37%5%5%7%18%21%

Female9%33%5%5%6%22%20%

Male9%37%5%4%7%17%20%

TRIAL OF MIKE DUFFYTHE ECONOMYTPPNIQABREFUGEE CRISISSOMETHING ELSENOT SURE

BC8%

33%7%4%6%22%19%

AB8%

43%5%4%7%14%19%

SK8%37%5%4%6%19%20%

MB6%

36%5%5%9%18%21%

QC9%32%4%9%7%21%18%

ON10%35%5%5%7%18%20%

Atlantic11%29%5%4%7%

20%24%

9%

35%

5%5%7%

20%

20%

Duffy Economy TPP Niqab Refugees

Something Else Not Sure

A13

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal Election?

Absolutely certain to voteLikely to vote

Might vote Unlikely to vote

And if the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?

Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperNDP led by Tom Mulcair

Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe

Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided

And which party are you leaning towards voting for? [Undecided Only]


Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Bloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe


Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [Selected a Party Q2]

Strong supporter Might change your mind

Dont know

And who would be your second choice? [Might Change/Dont Know Only]


Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauBloc Qubcois led by Gilles Duceppe


During the campaign a number of stories have made headlines at dierent stages, which issue has most aected the way you will vote?

The Trial of Mike DuyThe Economy

The Trans Pacific Partnership, also known as the TPPThe Discussion of the Niqab

The Refugee CrisisSomething Else

Not sure

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2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.

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Mainstreet Mid October National