Model-Based Systems Engineering Tradespace Analysis with ......•Total Ownership Cost (TOC) modeling to enable affordability tradeoffs with other ilities ―Integrated costing of

SSRR 2017 November 8, 2017

Model-Based Systems Engineering TradespaceAnalysis with SysML and COSYSMO

Sponsor: DASD(SE)By

David Jacques, Air Force Institute of TechnologyRay Madachy, Naval Postgraduate School

Kristin Giammarco, Naval Postgraduate SchoolCPT Dennis Edwards, United States Military Academy, West Point

9th Annual SERC Sponsor Research ReviewNovember 8, 2017

FHI 360 CONFERENCE CENTER1825 Connecticut Avenue NW, 8th Floor

Washington, DC 20009www.sercuarc.org

SSRR 2017 November 8, 2017 2

Agenda

2

• Introduction• SysML and COSYSMO Integration• Case Study: Remote Targeting System UAS• Conclusions and Future Work


Overview

• Total Ownership Cost (TOC) modeling to enable affordability tradeoffs with other ilities― Integrated costing of systems, software, hardware and human factors across full

lifecycle operations―Combine with other MBSE architecture-based behavior and performance analysis

• Current shortfalls for ilities tradespace analysis―Models/tools are incomplete wrt/ TOC phases, activities, disciplines, SoS aspects―No integration with physical design space analysis tools, system modeling, or

each other

• Cost estimation can be improved by using the same architectural definitions for cost model inputs, without the need for independent cost modeling expertise and effort expenditure.

• Developing translation rules and constructs between MBSE methods, performance analysis and cost model inputs.

• Demonstrating tool interoperability and tailorability


Case Study Method

• Use various MBSE methods and tools to evaluate behavior and performance analysis in the face of requirements changes and System of System (SoS) architectural variations.

• Develop operational and system architectures to capture sets of UAS military scenarios for cooperative swarms with 3 UAS group sizes

• Transition the architectures to MBSE environments. ―SysML diagrams and executable activity models using Innoslate, CORE

• Develop cost model interfaces for components of the architectures in order to evaluate cost effectiveness in an uncertain future environment.―XML model files parsed automatically to extract cost model inputs

• Design and demonstrate UAS ISR tradespace including cost in integrated MBSE environment with executable models of architectures


Example UAS Missions

• Single UAS Search and Target Tracking (Simple Mission)

• UAS Pair Search and Target Tracking

• Find, Fix and Finish Terrorist Leadership (1)

• Find, Fix and Finish Terrorist Leadership (2)

• Mobile Missile Launcher Monitoring (1)

• Mobile Missile Launcher Monitoring (2)


Single UAS Simple Mission Threads

• Launch

•Navigation and flight

• Search and target ID including evaluation

•Target tracking

•Return/recovery

•Enumeration of these in MBSE models constitutes primary size input for Constructive Systems Engineering Cost Model (COSYSMO)


Example Activity Model (OV-5b) for Two UAS Mission


UAV Mission Nominal Cost Comparisons

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Single UAV(Simple)

UAV Pair Find, Fix andFinish TerroristLeadership (1)

Find, Fix andFinish TerroristLeadership (2)

Mobile MissileLauncher

Monitoring (1)

Mobile MissileLauncher

Monitoring (2)

# Operational Scenarios

Mission Baselines

Relative System Size/Cost


Agenda

9



COSYSMO Size Inputs

Size Type DescriptionRequirements The number of requirements for the system-of-interest at a

specific level of design. Requirements may be functional, performance, feature, or service-oriented.

Interfaces The number of shared physical and logical boundaries between system components or functions (internal interfaces) and those external to the system (external interfaces).

Algorithms/Blocks The number of newly defined or significantly altered functions that require unique mathematical algorithms to be derived in order to achieve the system performance requirements.

Operational Scenarios (Threads)

Operational scenarios that a system must satisfy, including nominal and off-nominal threads.

10


SySML to COSYSMO Mapping

# Requirements

Parametric Diagram

<<constraint>>

SysML COSYSMO

System Size

# Interfaces

# Algorithms

# Operational Scenarios (Threads)

Internal Block Diagram

port

Block Definition Diagram

port Σ

Use Case Diagram

use case

Package Diagram

<<requirement>>Requirements

Diagram

<<requirement>>

Block Definition Diagram

+


XML Interface Processing12

…

…

…


Example COSYSMO Estimate13


Agenda

14



Remote Targeting System (RTS) Background

• Comparing two architecture variants of Remote Targeting System (RTS) performed by semi-autonomous vehicles

• Baseline variant can have multiple vehicles, but uses human-in-the-loop to declare targets― Requires data link back to operator for each vehicle

• Autonomous Target Recognition (ATR) variant has heterogeneous sensors, and can use multiple vehicles to auto confirm target declarations without requiring a human.― Vehicle needs an autonomous target recognition algorithm (ATR)

― Vehicle requires a data link between vehicles, in addition to the data link back to the human operator (which must be modified to accommodate the ATR declarations);

― The Plan Mission Use Case must be modified to include loading of target templates

― Search Use Case must be modified to accommodate the ATR activities

― Additional <<include>> Use Cases, “Perform ATR” and “Confirm Target” must be added

― New and modified requirements must be accommodated

• Both variants are modeled in SysML from which cost estimates are directly derived

15


Remote Targeting System (RTS) Scenarios (Use Cases)

16

Remote Targeting System

<<include>>

<<include>>

<<include>>

<<include>>

<<include>>

<<include>>

<<include>>

<<include>>

Egress and Recovery

Launch and Ingress

Perform Search

Perform Setup

Perform Surveillance

Self Destruct <<include>>

Plan Mission <<include>>Use Case

<<actor>>

GPS

Ground Operator

<<actor>>

Target

Off Board C2 Oper...

uc Provide Remote Targeting

University Edition - For Academic Use OnlyDate:

December 3, 2016


RTS Requirements17

refined by refined by refined by refined by specifies

refined by refined by refined by refined by refined by refined by refined by refined by refined by refined by refined by refined by refined by refined by refined by refined by refined by refined by refined by refined by

R.0.2

Ground StationRequirements

Requirement

R.0.2.1

GS FcnalRequirements

Requirement

R.0.2.1.1

Comm with AV

Requirement

R.0.2.1.2

MP Preparation

Requirement

R.0.2.1.3

TelemetryStorage

Requirement

R.0.2.1.4

TLE Calculation

Requirement

R.0.2.2

GS InputRequirements

Requirement

R.0.2.2.1

Flight ModeChange

Requirement

R.0.2.2.2

MP SuccessReceipt

Requirement

R.0.2.2.3

Operator MissionPlanning

Requirement

R.0.2.2.4

Telemetry Receipt

Requirement

R.0.2.2.5

Video Receipt

Requirement

R.0.2.3

GS OutputRequirements

Requirement

R.0.2.3.1

CommandTransmission

Requirement

R.0.2.3.2

Fcn Check Display

Requirement

R.0.2.3.3

Fcn CheckInitiation

Requirement

R.0.2.3.4

Flight Status

Requirement

R.0.2.3.5

MP Transmission

Requirement

R.0.2.3.6

Video Display

Requirement

R.0.2.3.7

Telemetry Display

Requirement

R.0.2.3.8

MP SuccessDisplay

Requirement

R.0.2.3.9

TLE Display

Requirement

R.0.2.4

GS PerfRequirments

Requirement

R.0.2.4.1

GS ID

Requirement

R.0.2.4.2

GS TLE Accuracy

Requirement

C.0.4.2

Ground Station

Component

hier Ground Station Requirements


December 3, 2016

<<specified by>>

<<satisfy>> <<specified by>> <<satisfy>> <<satisfy>> <<satisfy>>

<<requirement>>

RTS Requirements

<<requirement>>

Command Destruct

The System shall be capableof executing a CommandDestruct during any portionof mission flight. The Co...

<<activity>>

UC7i: Self Destruct

<<requirement>>

Inventory

The RTS shall include allnecessary ground and flightequipment to successfullyexecute all required functi...

<<block>>


<<requirement>>

MP Plan/Re-plan

The Operator shall be ableto initiate a new or modifiedMission Plan duringpre-launch, Ingress, Searc...

<<activity>>

UC6i: Plan Mission

<<requirement>>

RTL

The System shall be capableof executing aReturn-to-Launch (RTL)during any portion of missi...

<<activity>>

A/V Rcv Cmd (RTL)

<<activity>>

GS Send Cmd (RTL)

<<block>>


req RTS Requirements


December 3, 2016


Requirements Decomposition Level for Costing

18

< < r e q u i r e m e n t > >

A i r V e h i c l e R e q u i r e m e n t s

g

e g i n a n .

e m e n t > >

i c l e s h a l l b e e x e c u t i n g s e a r c h

f i n e d i n M i s s i o n

< < r e q u i r e m e n t > >

W a y p o i n t n a v i g a t i o n

T h e A i r V e h i c l e s h a l l b ec a p a b l e o f G P S w a y p o i n tn a v i g a t i o n .

< < r e q u i r e m e n t > >

A V I n p u t R e q u i r e m e n t s

< < r e q u i r e m e n t > >

F l i g h t m o d e c h a n g e

T h e A i r V e h i c l e s h a l l r e c e i v ec o m m a n d s t o c h a n g e f l i g h tm o d e s .

< < r e q u i r e m e n t > >

M P R e c e i p t

T h e A i r V e h i c l e s h a l l a c c e p tM i s s i o n P l a n f r o m t h eG r o u n d S t a t i o n a t a l l t i m e so n c e c o m m u n i c a t i o n h a s b . . .

< < r e q u i r e m e n t >

A V O u t p u t R e q u i r

< < r e q u i r e m e n t > >

F u n c t i o n c h e c k r e s u l t s

T h e A i r V e h i c l e s h a l lt r a n s m i t r e s u l t s o f f u n c t i o nc h e c k t o t h e G r o u n d S t a t i o n .

< < r e q u i r e m e n t > >

M P S u c c e s s

T h e A i r V e h i c l e s h a l l s e nr e c e i p t o f M i s s i o n P l a n t ot h e G r o u n d S t a t i o n .

< < r e q u i r e

T e l e m e t r y

T h e A i r V e h c a p a b l e o f st e l e m e t r y f r o S t a t i o n . . . .


Use Case Level for Costing19

Perform SurveillanceDescription: This Use Case covers surveillance activitiesPreconditions: Target has been identified and Air Vehicle has entered Surveillance modePrimary Flow: 1. Air Vehicle transmits telemetry to Ground Station(s)2. Ground Station(s) receives and displays flight data3. Ground Station(s) stores telemetry data4. Air Vehicle loiters over target5. Air Vehicle continues video transmission to Ground Station and Off-Board C26. Ground Station(s) receives and displays video transmission7. Operator and Off-Board C2 monitor video and flight data8. Ground station(s) calculate target coordinates based on video and telemetry9. Ground station(s) displays target coordinates10. Operator initiates RTL11. Ground Station sends RTL command to Air Vehicle12. Air Vehicle enters RTL modeAlternate Flow: At any time:

a. If bad vehicle health, Operator enters RTL command on Ground Stationb. Ground Station sends RTL command to Air Vehiclec. Air Vehicle enters RTL mode

At any time:a. Operator initiates <<include>> Plan Mission Use Caseb. Vehicle ingresses to new Search Insertion point

At any time:a. If vehicle compromise is evident, execute <<include>> Self Destruct Use Case

Postconditions: Air Vehicle is loitering over the target for > 10 minutes and target coordinates are calculated and displayed on Ground Station(s); Air Vehicle enters RTL mode


RTS Interfaces (Ports) (1/2)20

GPS Link {:GPS Signal}

Video Link {:Video data}Telemetry Link {:MP Loaded, :Telemetry}

Command Link {:Cmd (BIT), :Cmd (Launch), :Cmd (RTL), :Cmd (Self Destruct), :Cmd (Surveillance), :MP}

: Air Vehicle

: Ground Station

ibd Remote Targeting System


December 3, 2016

A/V Datacomm

A/V GPS

A/V Video

: Air Vehicle

: Ground Station

ibd Remote Targeting System


December 3, 2016

Video S/W API

USB

MP S/W API

Computer Video

: Data Modem

: Laptop

: Mission Control So...

: Video Processing S...

: Video Receiver

ibd Ground Station


December 3, 2016


RTS Interfaces (Ports) (2/2)21

AP GPSModem Power

AP Modem

GPS Power

AP Fuze

AP Controls

AP Power

AP Video Control

Video Power

AC Power

: A/V Data modem

: Aircraft

: Autopilot

: Ordnance pkg

: Video System

: GPS Receiver

: Power Module

ibd Air Vehicle


December 3, 2016


RTS Baseline Systems Engineering Cost Estimate

22


RTS Baseline Systems Engineering Monte Carlo Analysis

23

http://csse.usc.edu/tools/59dffb2d69d30


Extrapolation for RTS Full Program Cost Distribution

24

Input TableVariable Units Optimistic Expected PessimisticSystems Engineering Hours (From COSYSMO) Hours 9476 10652 16284SE Conversion Factor Hours / Hour 0.150 0.125 0.100Labor Rate $ / Hour 100 110 125Bill of Materials $M 2 3 7Travel Percentage 2.5% 3.5% 6.0%G&A Percentage Percentage 10%ODC Percentage Percentage 10.0%Fee Percentage 10.0%MR Percentage 10.0%Calibration Factor No Units 1.3


RTS Architecture Cost Comparisons25


Agenda

26



Systems Engineering Cost Model Sizing Correlation in MBSE Tools

RequirementsThe number of requirements for the system-of-interest at a specific level of design.

InterfacesThe number of shared physical and logical boundaries between system components or functions (internal interfaces) and those external to the system (external interfaces).

AlgorithmsThe number of newly defined or significantly altered functions that require unique mathematical algorithms or component to be derived/designed in order to achieve the system performance requirements.

Operational ScenariosOperational scenarios that a system must satisfy, including nominal and off-nominal threads.

These size drivers are further weighted for complexity levels.


Conclusions and Future Work

• Have demonstrated architectural tradespaces with simpler UAS swarm models for further elaboration on more complex mission scenarios

• We have found a strong correspondence between SysML constructs and system size measures of requirements, interfaces, algorithms, and operational scenarios.― Still comparing approaches for complex algorithm representations in SysML― Require additional attributes for modeling complexity levels of size drivers

• Continue transcribing all UAS architectural variations into SysML for cost tradeoffs to evaluate with other Measures of Effectiveness― Expanded mission sets to include heterogeneous UAS teams and more complex scenarios

• Apply method and case study with other MBSE tools, evaluate and compare― More detailed modeling to support thread, requirements, functions, algorithms and interface

definitions

• Develop guidelines with examples for practitioners on modeling decomposition levels of detail


Completed Student Theses

• Maj. Zhongwang Chua (Singapore AF), “Application of Executable Architecture in Early Concept Evaluation using DoDAF”, M.S. Thesis, AFIT, September 2016

• Maj. Ryan Pospisal (DTRA/A9, Kirtland AFB), “Application of Executable Architectures in Early Concept Evaluation”, M.S. Thesis, AFIT, December 2015

• Monica Farah-Stapleton, “Resource Analysis Based On System Architecture Behavior”, Ph.D. thesis, NPS, September 2016

• CPT Dennis Edwards (USArmy), “Exploring the integration of COSYSMO with a model based system engineering methodology in early trade space analytics and decisions”, M.S. thesis, NPS, June 2016

Documents

Model-Based Systems Engineering Tradespace Analysis with ......•Total Ownership Cost (TOC) modeling to enable affordability tradeoffs with other ilities ―Integrated costing of