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MODERN WAR

AVM MOHAN DE ZOYSA. ndc. psc. ctf-ndu(USA). MSc(NSW-Pak).MSc(DEF-Ind).

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"I don't know how man will fight World War III, but I do know how they will fight World War IV; with sticks and stones"

- Albert Einstein

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INTRODUCTION

• There are glaring inter-dependencies in the 21st century;

– Economies are interwoven and dependant

– Political ideologies now exportable - democracy

– Globalization has breached gap between people and states and

widened the gap between the haves and the have-nots

– Religion and extremism has found common grounds leading to

conflict

– Non-state actors in various spheres have become more relevant

– Challenges have reshaped cooperative security mechanisms

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INTRODUCTION

• Nation states apply all elements of national power to prosecute war as an outflow of conflict – The ability to influence the behavior of others to get a

desired outcome

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INTRODUCTION

– All the means that are available for employment in the pursuit of national objectives

GeographyNatural resourcesDemographyEconomic capacityTechnological basePolitical structureNational leadership

Cultural cohesionNational moraleNational characterMilitary strengthFaithInformationWar potential

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AIM

To impart an elementary knowledge of conflict & war in the 21st century

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SEQUENCE

• Definitions• Spectrum of War• Generational War• Emerging Character of War• Sources & Nature of War• Global Security Environment, Challenge & Reality• Conclusion

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CONFLICT AND WAR

• Conflict : issues that confront nation states, trans-national organizations and non-state actors

• War : violent outcome of a state of conflict

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SPECTRUM OF WAR / CONFLICT

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SPECTRUM OF WAR / CONFLICTProbability vs. Intensity

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GENERATIONAL WAR

• Generations of Warfare

– The First Generation of Modern War - War of line and column tactics

– Second Generation - Mass Firepower

– Third Generation warfare - Blitzkrieg or Maneuver Warfare

– Fourth Generation war - The state loses its monopoly on war and find themselves fighting non-state opponents

– Fifth Generation war - Hybrid war

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EMERGING CHARACTER OF WAR

• Conflict embedded in human nature has its manifestations at individual as well as group level

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EMERGING CHARACTER OF WAR

• Affected by Technological changes, national interests, regional and extra regional interests

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EMERGING CHARACTER OF WAR

• The non state actors struggling against the state• Armed struggle against foreign occupation• Wars of liberation or cessation• Uprising of masses for change of regime

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EMERGING CHARACTER OF WAR

• The military pitched against a much smaller and much less armed and organized adversary

• Remains a test of politico-military will of the state • Financed and armed by local / regional / I’national• Ideological dimension

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DOMESTIC SOURCES OF WAR

• Bureaucracies, Organizations• Information Processing And Decision Making

Failures• Intelligence Failures• Domestic Political Lobbies • Foreign Policy Considerations• Public opinion and Diversionary theory

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DOMESTIC SOURCES OF WAR

• The Military and Trade Lobbies• Youth Bulge• Political Alienation• Corruption• Poverty• Urbanization• Civil War; Genocide

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INTERNATIONAL SOURCES OF WAR

• Ideological difference• Post 9/11 Terrorism, Protracted Conflict• Engagement In Proxy Wars • Rivalry, Alliances and Economic Relations• Environmental Degradation And Conflict • Energy and Resource Wars• Nuclear Proliferation• Arms Race

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INTERNATIONAL SOURCES OF WAR

• Globalization• Clash of Civilization• Religious Differences• Cultural Dominance• Migration• Terrorism and Extremism

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NATURE OF CONFLICT / WAR

• Kinetic means - Have been the predominant form of war fighting

• Non-Kinetic Means - Diplomatic, Information, and Economic instruments of power, as well as the non-kinetic elements of the Military instrument

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GLOBAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT

• A different strategic environment • Dramatic changes in world's geopolitical

framework• difficult to predict due to exceedingly complex

nature of warInternational economyInformation technologyDemographyWeak / failed statesGlobalization

Energy demandResource scarcityClimate changeCyber war

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GLOBAL SECURITY CHALLENGE

• New trends have emerged in the environment• There is a new social awakening• Citizens are demanding for their rights• States versus people• Status Quo of political systems are challenged

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IMPLICATIONSSocial

Injustice,Alienation

Resistance Uprising

Writ of State State Failure

Political Change

Intervention: Domestic Regional

International

Peace, Stability

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GLOBAL SECURITY - REALITY

• The global security environment has challenged the current international system

• Strong states have assumed unilateralism and dominates global sphere

• The potential for multi-polarism becomes more eminent as struggle for space becomes invigorated

• Weak states are continually suppressed and becoming irrelevant

• Chances for new form of conflict becomes imminent such as hybrid war

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CONCLUSION

• Events are shaping the world as it transits 21st century

• States and NSAs relevant, as control for resources become competitive

• Challenges and expectations for key actors and players

• The ways and means changing to achieve the ENDS

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MODERN WAR

AVM MOHAN DE ZOYSA. ndc. psc. ctf-ndu(USA). MSc(NSW-Pak).MSc(DEF-Ind).

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