MONITORING OF RENEWABLE

ENERGY PERFORMANCE

PROGRESS UPDATE FOR FIRST QUARTER 2016

ISSUE 7

APRIL 2016

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CONTENTS

Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations........................................................................................ 3

1. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ................................................................................. 6

2. STATUS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS ...................................................................... 8

3. PLANT PERFORMANCE ..................................................................................................... 12

3.1 Daily energy production of solar and wind energy power plants ........................... 12

3.2 Monthly Energy Production ..................................................................................... 14

3.3 Capacity factors of Renewable Energy ...................................................................... 15

4. CONCLUDING REMARKS ................................................................................................... 16

ANNEXURE A: GEOGRAPHICAL MAPS OF IPP RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS ...................... 17

ANNEXURE B: NEW RENEWABLE ENERGY POWER PLANT ADDITIONS .................................. 20

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Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations

GLOSSARY

BID WINDOW

Means any of the procurement phases under the Renewable Energy Independent

Power Producer Procurement Programme of the Department of Energy.

CAPACITY FACTOR

Means the ratio of the power plant output over a period of time, to its potential output if

it were possible for it to operate at full nameplate capacity continuously over the same

period of time.

ENERGY REGULATOR

Means the regulatory authority established as a juristic person in terms of Section 3 of

the National Energy Regulator Act, 2004 (Act No. 40 of 2004).

GOVERNMENT

Means the Government of the Republic of South Africa, and any of its departments,

agencies or other entities that it manages or controls.

GIGAWATT HOUR

Energy unit in which electricity consumption is measured. 1GWh = 1000MWh.

INDEPENDENT POWER PRODUCER (IPP)

IPPs are defined as typically limited-liability, investor-owned enterprises that generate

electricity either for bulk sale to an electric utility or for retail sale to industrial or other

customers with certain conditions.

MEGAWATT HOUR

Energy unit in which electricity consumption is measured. 1MWh = 1000kWh.

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MINISTER

Means Minister of Energy

RENEWABLE ENERGY (from the 2003 White Paper on Renewable Energy)

Renewable energy harnesses naturally occurring non-depletable sources of energy,

such as solar, wind, biomass, hydro, tidal, wave, ocean current and geothermal, to

produce electricity, gaseous and liquid fuels, heat or a combination of these energy

types.

TERAWATT HOUR (TWh)

Energy unit in which electricity consumption is measured. 1TWh = 1000GWh = 3,600 x

103 GJ (Gigajoule) (a Joule is a unit of energy).

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ABBREVIATIONS

BW Bid Window

CF Capacity Factor

COD Commercial Operation Date

CSIR Council of Scientific and Industrial Research

CSP Concentrated Solar Power

DoE Department of Energy

IPP Independent Power Producer

IRP Integrate Resource Plan

MW Megawatt

MWh Megawatt hour

GWh Gigawatt hour

NERSA National Energy Regulator

PPA Purchase Power Agreement

PV Photovoltaic

RE Renewable Energy

REIPPP Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer

Programme

RfP Request for Proposal

TWh Terawatt-hour

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1. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

South Africa has demonstrated to the world that renewable energy can be implemented

successfully in power systems that are still dominated by a large power utility.

Government policy on renewable energy (RE), coupled with solid regulatory framework

have ensured that Independent Power Producers (IPPs) are afforded an opportunity to

contribute in this important electricity industry. The National Energy Regulator of South

Africa (NERSA) supports Government's RE plans set out in the Integrated Resource

Plan 2010-2030 (IRP2010-2030). In order to implement the plan, the Minister has so far

made three Determinations under the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer

Programme (REIPPP) of the Department of Energy (DoE). In the first Independent

Power Producer (IPP) Determination, issued in 2011 ('the IPP Determination 2011'), a

target of 3 825MW of RE was set. In the second IPP Determination, ('the IPP

Determination 2012), 3 455MW of RE capacity will be procured until 2020.

In the third IPP Determination, ('the IPP Determination 2015'), a procurement of

renewable energy capacity of 6300MW is envisaged for the period 2021- 2025, in

accordance with the promulgated IRP2010-2030. In total, the renewable energy

capacity to be procured by 2025 is estimated at 13 580 MW. In November 2015, the

Minister issued a fourth Determination, (‘the Renewable Energy (Solar) Procurement

Programme 2015’). The Solar Procurement Programme proposes 1 500MW of capacity

to be procured from Solar PV or any other solar technology. Table 1 below lists all four

Ministerial Determinations for RE and technology capacity allocation. Table 2 lists other

Determinations on non-renewable technologies.

Four RE IPPP bid windows, including a mini-bid window of Concentrated Solar Power

(CSP) projects (termed 'Window 3.5'), have been concluded successfully by the

Department of Energy (DoE). Table 2 below shows a summary of capacity allocations

for each bid window.

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Table 1: Ministerial Determinations for Renewable Energy

Technology Ministerial Determination (Renewable Energy)

IPP Procurement

Programme 2011

IPP Procurement

Programme 2012

IPP Procurement

Programme 2015

IPP Procurement

Solar 2015

Onshore Wind 1850 1600 3040

Solar PV 1450 1200 2200

1500** CSP 200 400 600

Biomass 12.5 47.5 150

Biogas 12.5 47.5 50

Landfill Gas 25 0 0

Small hydro 75 60 60

Small Projects 100 100 200

Total Allocation 3725 3455 6300 1500

** According to the Ministerial Solar Determination 2015, 1 500MW will be for solar technologies i.e. CSP and Solar PV only.

Table 2: Capacity allocations for bid windows (BW)

RE Type Adjusted

Capacity (MW)

BW 1

(MW)

BW2

(MW)

BW 3

(MW)

BW 3.5

(MW)

BW 4

(MW)

Onshore wind 3 320 634.0 562.5 787 0 1362.4

Solar photovoltaic 2 525 631.5 417.1 435 0 812.9

Concentrated solar

power

600 150.0 50.0 200 200 0

Small hydro

(≤40MW)

135 0 14.3 0 0 5

Landfill gas 25 0 0 18 0 0

Biomass 60 0 0 16 0 25

Biogas 60 0 0 0 0 0

Small Projects 200 0 0 0 0 0

Total 6 925 1 415.5 1 043.9 1 456 200 2205.3

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On 26 May 2014, the DoE released the Request for Proposal (RfP) for the fourth bid

window. A total of 77 bids amounting to 5 804 MW were received against the available

capacity allocation of 1 105 MW. Preferred bidders were announced in two groups. The

first group of 13 preferred bidders were announced on 10 April 2015, while the second

group of 13 preferred bidders were announced on 07 June 2015. Annexure A shows

the location of projects from all four RE IPP bid windows.

In terms of section 4 of the Electricity Regulation Act 2006 (Act No. 40 of 2006) ('the

Act'), NERSA has a mandate to 'establish and manage monitoring and information

systems and co-ordinate the integration thereof with other relevant information

systems', The Renewable Energy (RE) Independent Power Producers (IPPs) are

required to submit reports on their monthly energy production, pursuant to section 15 of

Grid Connection Code for Renewable energy version 2.8 of 2015. The sections below

will cover the status of RE IPP projects and performance of the power plants during the

year 2015/16.

2. STATUS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS

Table 3 shows the update of the capacity under commercial operation since the last

update on 01 September 2015. As of 09 February 2016, the total grid connected

capacity of REIPP projects is 2 626.16MW. Out of this grid-connected capacity, 2

144.72MW is in commercial operation as illustrated in Table 3 below.

Table 3: Update from previous Monitoring Renewable Energy Performance Report (Issue 6)

Date Commercial Capacity (MW)

(Commercial and Early Operation)

Increase in MW

(since last report)

01 September 2015

(last report)

2021.44 ─

09 February 2016

(this report)

2144.72 123.28

Table 4 below provides a list of all REIPPP projects in commercial operation. The

projects in commercial operation are from BW1 and BW2 of REIPPP. The pictures of

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the new RE power plants added to the grid are shown in ANNEXURE B. The RE IPP

projects of BW 3 are currently under construction and the first Commercial Operation

Dates (CODs) are expected from July 2016 onwards.

Table 4: REIPPP projects that achieved COD as at 09 February 2016

Power Plant Technology Contracted Capacity (MW)

Achieved Capacity (MW)

Scheduled COD (As per PPA)

Achieved COD

1 155 RustMo1 Solar PV 6.93 6.93 15-Nov-13 15-Nov-13

2 202 Hopefield Wind 65.4 65.4 01-Feb-14 01-Feb-14

3 138 MetroWind Wind 27 27 01-Feb-14 07-Feb-14

4 159 Kalkbult Solar PV Solar PV 72.5 72.4 01-Jan-14 19-Mar-14

5 163 Aries Solar PV Solar PV 9.65 9.65 13-Dec-13 20-Mar-14

6 128 Konkoonsies Solar PV Solar PV 9.65 9.65 13-Dec-13 20-Mar-14

7 182 PV De Aar Solar PV 45.6 45.6 03-Apr-14 05-Apr-14

8 572 Droogfontein Solar PV 45.6 45.4 03-Apr-14 06-Apr-14

9 696 Herbert Solar PV Solar PV 19.98 19.9 11-Apr-14 11-Apr-14

10 443 Greefspan Solar PV Solar PV 9.9 9.9 11-Apr-14 11-Apr-14

11 123 Dassieklip Wind 27 27 27-Jan-14 07-May-14

12 186 Jeffreys Bay Wind 138 135.11 15-May-14 15-May-14

13 031 Letsatsi Solar PV 64 64 21-May-14 21-May-14

14 032 Lesedi Solar PV 64 64 21-May-14 21-May-14

15 523 Linde ** Solar PV 36.8 36.8 30-Jun-14 30-Jun-14

16 052 Soutpan Solar PV 28 27.94 14-Feb-14 04-Jul-14

17 036 Nobelsfontein Wind 75 73.8 11-Jul-14 12-Jul-14

18 064 Mulilo de Aar Solar PV 10 10 01-Apr-14 19-Jul-14

19 375 Vredendal** Solar PV 8.8 8.8 06-Jun-14 31-Jul-14

20 764 Upington Solar ** Solar PV 8.9 8.9 31-Jul-14 31-Jul-14

21 043 Dorper Wind 97.53 97.53 01-Jul-14 09-Aug-14

22 564 Solar Capital de Aar Solar PV 75 75 28-Feb-14 15-Aug-14

23 444 Reisa Kathu Solar PV 75 75 15-Aug-14 15-Aug-14

24 035 Witkop Solar PV 30 29.68 25-Apr-14 20-Sep-14

25 065 Mulilo Prieska Solar PV 20 19.93 01-Apr-14 01-Oct-14

26 750 Boshoff ** Solar PV 60 57 30-Sep-14 25-Oct-14

27 225 Cookhouse Wind 138.6 135.8 31-May-14 19-Nov-14

28 207 Sishen ** Solar PV 74 74 26-Nov-14 29-Nov-14

29 037 Touwsrivier Solar PV 36 36 20-Jun-14 05-Dec-14

30 562 Jasper ** Solar PV 75 75 17-Dec-14 17-Dec-14

31 373 Aurora Rietvlei ** Solar PV 9 8.9 05-Sep-14 23-Dec-14

32 527 Dreunberg ** Solar PV 69.6 69.6 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-14

33 815 Kakamas Hydro** Hydro 10 10 31-Jan-15 31-Jan-15

34 118 Kaxu Solar One CSP 100 100 06-Feb-15 06-Feb-15

35 148 Kouga Red Cap Wind 80 77.7 16-Dec-14 17-Mar-15

36 364 Grassridge ** Wind 59.8 59.8 06-Jun-15 06-Jun-15

37 309 West Coast** Wind 90.82 90.82 09-Jun-15 09-Jun-15

38 164 SlimSun** Solar PV 5 5 01-Jul-14 05-Aug-15

39 014 Gouda** Wind 135.5 135.5 11-July-15 28 -Aug-15

40 372 Chaba** Wind 21 21 12 -Sep-15 12-Sep-15

41 362 Waainek** Wind 23.28 23.28 26-Sep-14 10-Jan-16

42 798 Khi Solar One CSP 50 50 30-Jan-16 05-Feb-16

43 002 Bokpoort CSP** CSP# 50 50 28-Jan-16 06-Feb-16

TOTAL CAPACITY COD 2144.72 Source: ESKOM ** Bid Window 2 projects # Early Operation

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The monthly cumulative capacity of the RE IPPs in commercial operation is shown in

Figure 1 below. From the plot it can be seen that the capacity of renewable increased

substantially from February 2014.

Figure 1: Monthly Cumulative commercial capacity of REIPP projects on 09 February 2016.

Figure 2 overleaf shows the commercial capacity of RE by technology. Wind technology

has 969.74MW of commercial capacity and is followed by Solar PV, with 964.98MW.

CSP capacity has increased by 100MW this year, following the commissioning of Khi

Solar One and Bokpoort CSP plants, both of which have 50MW of commercial capacity.

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Figure 2: Commercial capacity of various technologies on 09 February 2016.

Figure 3 below shows the commercial capacity of RE power plants for each province in

South Africa. Also shown in the figure are the number of projects for each province.

The Northern Cape has the highest RE capacity in the country due favourable solar

energy resource while the Western and Eastern Cape provinces follow with RE capacity

mainly from wind farms.

Figure 3: Capacity of renewable energy IPP power plants per province. (Data last updated on 09 February

2016).

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3. PLANT PERFORMANCE

Performance monitoring of the RE power plants is based on the hourly energy profiles,

which are reported monthly, and on total monthly energy sales, which are reported on

a quarterly basis. Below is the analysis of hourly and monthly energy production of

commercial RE power plants:

3.1 Daily energy production of solar and wind energy power plants

Energy data used for the analysis of photovoltaic (PV) plant hourly performance was

based on a sample of plants that provided timely information to NERSA, as listed in

Table 5. It covers the period, from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2015. The total

contracted capacity of the analysed sample of RE plants is approximately 695MW. The

majority of the RE projects in South Africa are located in the Northern Cape where most

solar resource is plentiful. Figure 4 shows the average hourly energy profiles of sixteen

solar PV and seven Wind plants for 12 months, starting from January 2015 to end

December 2015.

Table 5: IPP data sources for hourly energy.

PV Plants (695 MW) Wind Plants (562.84MW) CSP Power Plants (100MW)

Hydro Power Plants (10.9MW)

155 Rustmo1 123 Dassieklip 118 KaXu CSP Kakamas hydro plant

163 Aries 159 Dorper

128 Konkoosies 202 Hopefield

696 Herbert 128 Nobelsfontein

443 Greefspan 182 Jeffreys Bay

562 Jasper 138 Metro Wind Van Stadens

523 Linde 225 Cookhouse

527 Dreunberg

159 Kalkbult

034 Lesedi

031 Letsatsi

065 Mulilo Prieska

064 Mulilo DeAar

444 Reisa Kathu

564 SolarCapitalDeAar

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From the plot it can be seen that wind energy production is higher in the early afternoon

hours up to and including the peak evening hours i.e. from 16:00 PM and 20:00PM.

Therefore it can be concluded that wind energy contributes to meeting the evening peak

demand, while solar PV contributes to meeting the portion of the morning peak demand

of the system since solar irradiation increases rapidly before 09:00 AM. The annual

average ratio of morning to evening peak demand is about 0.95 (i.e. there is a small

difference between the two peak load period).

Figure 4: Daily average energy profile of Wind and PV power plants for 2015.

The first CSP power plant, KaXu, started commercial operation on 06 February 2015.

Figure 5 shows energy profile of the CSP power plant on 19 September 2015. From

the energy profile it can be seen that the power plant produced energy during sunshine

hours of the day, but in addition to that, the storage system of the plant fed power to the

grid for a further three hours of the evening. On that day 314MWh (24% of the daily

energy) of the total daily energy produced of 1 310MWh was dispatched to the grid from

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the thermal storage facility of the CSP plant during the evening. This demonstrates that

CSP technology combined with thermal storage is able to serve load during peak hours.

Figure 5: Energy production profile of KaXu CSP on 19 September 2015

3.2 Monthly Energy Production

Figure 6 shows the monthly energy production of RE IPP power plants for the period

September 2013 to December 2015. The plot also shows respective energy

contributions from various technologies. From October 2013, there was a significant

increase in monthly energy produced due to additional power plants commissioned from

BW1. The cumulative capacity additions (see Fig 1 above) are consistent with the

cumulative energy production (see Fig 6 overleaf). . In general, 2015 had fewer plant

capacity additions compared to 2014. This is evident from the appearance of seasonal

variation (i.e. PV production dropped in winter months of 2015), something which was

overshadowed by new plant additions in 2014. Table 6 shows the total energy

production of RE technologies from 2013 till 2015. During 2015 calendar year,

approximately 4 393GWh of energy was generated by RE IPP power plants. The latter

996MWh generated

before 6pm

314MWh

generated

after 6pm

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figure is almost double than the previous year, when 2 189GWh of energy was

produced. Energy production of solar PV and wind power plants was approximately,

2.19TWh and 1.98TWh, respectively. CSP and hydro power plant combined produced

approximately 0.22TWh. Furthermore, on average, the RE IPP power plants produced

more than 350GWh per month in 2015.

Figure 6: RE IPP monthly energy production over the past three years. Table 6: Annual energy production of RE technologies.

RE technology 2013

(GWh) 2014

(GWh) 2015

(GWh)

PV 63.66 1183.00 2185.43

Wind 2.63 1006.00 1985.48

CSP 0 0 187.54

Hydro 0 0 34.22

Total Energy (GWh) 66.29 2189.00 4392.66

3.3 Capacity factors of Renewable Energy

The monthly energy production of the Wind and PV power plants was used to calculate

the monthly capacity factors (CFs). For the majority of the projects, the data represents

the first full-year performance. The CFs of solar PV power plants over a 12-month period

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were between 18% and 32%, with an average CF of 25%. Wind energy CFs varied

from 26% to 35%, with an average of 31%. The latter figure is expected to increase as

more modern wind turbines are employed.

Fig 7: Monthly average capacity factors of solar PV and Wind power plant.

4. CONCLUDING REMARKS

A total of 43 REIPPP projects are feeding power into the grid. As of 09 February 2016,

the total installed capacity on the grid was 2 626.16MW. Out of this total installed

capacity, 2 144.72 is in commercial operation. Based on submitted energy production

data by IPPs, renewable energy power plants produced nearly 4.4TWh of energy in

2015. The hourly energy profiles of wind farms and one CSP plant show that RE is

contributing energy in the evening peak-period. In 2015, the average monthly capacity

factor for wind power plants was 31%, while the average capacity of solar PV was 25%.

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ANNEXURE A: GEOGRAPHICAL MAPS OF IPP RENEWABLE ENERGY

PROJECTS

Source: http://energy.org.za

Figure A1: Western Cape RE IPPs. Courtesy of Stephen Forder.

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Source: http://energy.org.za

Figure A2: RE IPP plants in the Eastern Cape. Courtesy of Stephen Forder.

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Source: http://energy.org.za

Figure A3: RE IPP plants in John Taolo and ZF Mgcawu District Municipalities in Northern Cape.

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ANNEXURE B: NEW RENEWABLE ENERGY POWER PLANT ADDITIONS

Table B1: New CSP power plants

POWER PLANT PHOTOS

KHI SOLAR CSP (50MW)

Located in Northern Cape near

Upington.

BOKPOORT CSP PLANT (50MW)

Located near Groblershoop in the

Northern Cape.

Source:http://crowieconcessions.co.za/portfolio-item/bokpoort-

csp-plant/. Last accessed 20 February 2016.

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