NBC News SurveyMonkey Toplines and Methodology 5 16 5 22

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NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, May 24, 2016 at 6:00AM

The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout

the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.

Results for the week of May 16, 2016 through May 22, 2016 are among a national sample of 16,710 adults aged 18 and over,

including 14,513 registered voters (+/- 1.0%), 4,077 registered Republican voters (+/-2.0%) and 4,888 registered Democratic voters

(+/-1.7%). Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below.

TOPLINE RESULTS

Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

Foreign

Policy

The

environment Terrorism Immigration

Health

care

Jobs and the

Economy Education Other

No

answer

5/16 – 5/22 4 8 13 6 16 36 12 5 1

5/9 – 5/15 4 9 12 7 16 35 11 5 15/2 – 5/8 4 9 12 7 15 36 12 5 1

4/25-5/1 4 9 14 7 16 33 11 6 1

4/18-4/24 4 9 14 8 15 32 11 6 1

4/11-4/17 4 8 16 7 15 32 11 5 1

4/4—4/10 4 8 17 8 14 31 11 6 1

3/28 – 4/3 5 8 19 7 15 32 10 5 1

3/21 – 3/27 4 8 18 7 13 32 10 5 1

3/14 – 3/20 4 9 12 7 15 36 11 5 1

3/7 – 3/13 4 8 13 8 16 35 10 6 1

2/29 – 3/6 4 9 13 7 16 35 11 5 1

2/22 – 2/28 5 8 14 7 16 34 10 5 1

2/15 – 2/21 5 8 16 7 15 33 10 5 1

2/8 – 2/14 4 8 16 8 14 34 10 5 1

2/1 – 2/7 5 9 15 7 16 32 10 5 -1/25 – 1/31 5 9 17 8 13 32 10 5 -

1/18 – 1/24 4 8 19 7 15 33 10 5 1

1/11 – 1/17 5 8 21 8 13 29 10 4 1

1/4 – 1/10 5 8 23 8 13 28 8 5 1

12/28-1/3 6 8 23 8 14 27 9 5 1



Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove No answer

5/16 – 5/22 27 23 13 36 1

5/9 – 5/15 28 23 13 35 1

5/2-5/8 28 23 12 36 1

4/25-5-1 27 24 13 36 1

4/18-4/24 26 24 13 37 1

4/11-4/17 28 24 12 37 1

4/4—4/10 27 23 13 37 1

3/28 – 4/3 28 24 13 35 1

3/21 – 3/27 27 24 13 35 1

3/14 – 3/20 27 24 13 35 1

3/7 – 3/13 27 23 13 36 1

2/29 – 3/6 27 23 12 37 1

2/22 – 2/28 27 23 12 37 1

2/15 – 2/21 26 22 12 39 -

2/8 – 2/14 26 24 12 38 1

2/1 – 2/7 27 23 12 38 1

1/25 – 1/31 25 22 12 40 1

1/18 – 1/24 26 24 14 36 -1/11 – 1/17 26 22 12 40 1

1/4 – 1/10 23 22 12 42 1

12/28 – 1/3 23 25 12 40 1

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent? Republican Democrat Independent No answer

5/16 - 5/22 29 34 35 1

5/9 – 5/15 28 35 35 1

5/2 - 5/8 32 35 31 2

4/25-5/1 28 36 35 1

4/18-4/24 28 35 36 1

4/11-4/17 29 34 35 1

4/4—4/10 30 34 35 13/28 – 4/3 29 35 35 2

3/21 – 3/27 30 33 36 2

3/14 – 3/20 30 36 32 2

3/7 – 3/13 31 35 33 2

2/29 – 3/6 32 36 31 2

2/22 – 2/28 31 35 33 2

2/15 – 2/21 31 35 33 1

2/8 – 2/14 30 35 33 2

2/1 – 2/7 30 35 33 2

1/25 – 1/31 31 34 33 2

1/18 – 1/24 28 34 36 1

1/11 – 1/17 31 34 33 2

1/4 – 1/10 33 32 34 2

12/28 – 1/3 30 34 34 2



As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T KNOW FOR

PARTY]

RepublicanParty

DemocraticParty Neither No answer

5/16 – 5/22 31 29 37 3

5/9 – 5/15 33 28 36 3

5/2 – 5/8 32 32 35 1

4/25-5/1 32 27 38 3

4/18-4/24 35 27 35 3

4/11-4/17 33 30 34 3

4/4 – 4/10 33 28 35 4

3/28 – 4/3 31 29 38 2

3/21 – 3/27 31 28 37 4

3/14 – 3/20 31 28 39 2

3/7 – 3/13 31 27 41 2

2/29 – 3/6 32 29 36 2

2/22 – 2/28 34 28 36 22/15 – 2/21 38 28 33 2

2/8 – 2/14 34 28 35 3

2/1 – 2/7 35 30 33 2

1/25 – 1/31 34 26 37 3

1/18 – 1/24 33 27 39 2

1/11 – 1/17 36 26 37 2

1/4 – 1/10 36 26 36 1

12/28 – 1/3 37 24 37 1

Here are the candidates running in the Democratic presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the

Democratic nomination for president? [AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS]

Hillary Clinton Martin O’Malley Bernie Sanders Don’t know No answer

5/16 – 5/22 51 - 42 7 -5/9 - 5/15 54 - 40 5 -5/2 – 5/8 53 - 41 5 -4/25-5/1 54 - 40 6 14/18-4/24 52 - 42 6 -4/11-4/17 50 - 43 7 -4/4—4/10 49 - 43 7 13/28 – 4/3 51 - 42 6 13/21 – 3/27 49 - 43 8 -3/14 – 3/20 53 - 41 6 1

3/7 – 3/13 54 - 41 5 -2/29 – 3/6 55 - 38 7 12/22 – 2/28 51 - 41 8 12/15 – 2/21 51 - 40 9 12/8 – 2/14 50 - 40 9 12/1 – 2/7 51 1 39 8 11/25 – 1/31 50 2 39 8 11/18 – 1/24 51 2 37 9 11/11 – 1/17 52 1 36 9 2



1/4 – 1/10 52 2 37 8 112/28 – 1/3 53 2 36 8 1From 12/28-2/14, the question wording was slightly different because of the stage of the race. Previous question wording: If the 2016

Republican/Democratic primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

Hillary Clinton,

the Democrat

Donald Trump,

the Republican

No

answer

5/16 – 5/22 47 43 9

5/9 – 5/15 48 45 7

5/2 – 5/8 49 44 7

Which one of the following is the most important reason that you support Hillary Clinton: [AMONG those who selected Clinton in

match-up against Trump]

Opposition to

Donald Trump Experience

Positions on

the issues

Leadership

ability

She is the Democratic

nominee No answer

5/16 – 5/22 33 30 15 15 8 -

Which one of the following is the most important reason that you support Donald Trump: [AMONG those who selected Trump in

match-up against Clinton]

Opposition to

Hillary Clinton Experience

Positions on

the issues

Leadership

ability

He is the Republican

nominee No answer

5/16 – 5/22 36 2 31 24 6 -

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

Bernie Sanders,

the Democrat

Donald Trump,

the Republican No answer

5/16 – 5/22 53 41 6

5/9-5/15 53 41 6

5/5 – 5/8 53 40 7

Who do you think will win the 2016 presidential election?

Hillary Clinton Donald Trump No answer

5/16-5/22 51 42 7

5/9 – 5/15 51 43 6

How would you best describe your feelings toward Hillary Clinton, do you:

Admire her

Like her, but

don’t admire her

Dislike her, but

don’t hate her Hate her No answer

5/16 – 5/22 17 23 37 21 1



How would you best describe your feelings toward Donald Trump, do you:

Admire him

Like him, but

don’t admire him

Dislike him, but

don’t hate him Hate him No answer

5/16 – 5/22 10 26 39 24 1



METHODOLOGY

The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of May 16, 2016 through May 22, 2016 was conducted online among a

national sample of 16,710 adults aged 18 and over, including 14,513 who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected

from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age,

race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to

reflect the demographic composition of the United States.

Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error

can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and

measurement error.

To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.

The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.0 percentage point for the full sample and plus or minus 1.0 percentage point

for registered voters.

To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence

intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in

much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.

Group Unweighted N Plus or minus

Total sample 16,710 1.0

Total RVs 14,513 1.0

Republican RVs 4,077 2.0

Democrat RVs 4,888 1.7

Very conservative 1,375 3.5

Conservative 3,978 2.1

Moderate 6,855 1.5Liberal 2,867 2.2

Very liberal 1,236 3.5

Male 8,102 1.3

Female 8,608 1.3

18-24 1,389 3.3

25-34 2,207 2.7

35-44 2,635 2.4

45-54 3,497 2.1

55-64 3,902 2.065+ 3,080 2.2

White 12,004 1.1

Black 1,469 3.4

Hispanic 1,715 3.1

Other 1,522 3.0

Income: <$50k 4,702 1.8

Income: $50k-$99k 5,395 1.7



Income: $100k or more 5,675 1.6

Education: HS or less 2,369 2.2

Education: Some college 4,849 1.5

Education: College or more 9,492 1.1

Clinton voters 3,946 2.0Sanders voters 3,007 2.3

Documents

NBC News SurveyMonkey Toplines and Methodology 5 16 5 22