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NCEP Climate ActivitiesBased on a Service-Science Linkage

“Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

Louis W. UccelliniDirector, NCEP

GAPP PIs MeetingBoulder, CO

August 30, 2004

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Outline

• NCEP Overview• Climate Mission• Climate Support

– Environmental Modeling Center– Computer Resources– Climate Forecast System– Reanalysis– Climate Test Bed

• Future Opportunities

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NCEP Mission Statement

NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information.

Space Environment Center

Storm Prediction Center

Aviation Weather Center

NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Tropical Prediction Center

NCEP Strategic Vision

Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.

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Climate Mission

• Focus is on SI to decadal forecasts

• Official products for the U.S.

• Forecasts for week 2 and beyond in collaboration with

– CDC, HPC, IRI

“CPC serves the public by assessing and forecasting the impacts of short-term climate variability, emphasizing enhanced risks of weather-related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains.”

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NCEP Climate Support• Computer resources

– Supercomputer - $5M/yr for climate forecasts

– Backup Computer -1/3 for climate applications to support Climate Test Bed

• EMC organization

Marine & Coastal Ocean

Mesoscale Atmosphere

Global Climate & Weather

(Atm. Ocean& Land)

ScienceTeam Leads

X X X Data Assimilation - John Derber

X X Climate – Hua Lu Pan

X X X Models - Atmosphere/Ocean/Land/Ice; Dynamics; Physics

X X X Land Surface/Hydrology - Ken Mitchell

X X Ensembles & Probabilistic Guidance

X X X Hurricanes – Naomi Surgi

X X X Products – Development; Utilization

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NCEP Climate Support (cont.)

• NCEP products linked directly to 122 WFOs (regional downscaling)– EMC testing regional climate models for downscaling

purposes

• Reanalysis – applications to model calibration and other climate studies

• Climate Forecast System – fully coupled– Atmosphere – land – ocean

– Initialized through GODAS

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Reanalysis

• Global – T62(~210 km)/28 level, global domain– Used as benchmark to measure model improvement– Waiting on funding;working with NASA/GSFC– Review paper for Climate Change Science Program

• Regional– 32 km, 45 layer, domain covers N. and C. America,– Includes precipitation assimilation– Includes most recent Noah land model– Completed 24 years of RR production in just over 3 months– Real-time update now executing– Output available through NCDC

The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System (implemented August 24, 2004)

1. Atmospheric component• Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03)

• T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical

• Recent upgrades in model physics Solar radiation (Hou, 1996) cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998) gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995) cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997)

2. Oceanic component• GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998)

• 1/3°x1° in tropics; 1°x1° in extratropics; 40 layers

• Quasi-global domain (74°S to 64°N)

• Free surface3. Coupled model

• Once-a-day coupling

• Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology

CompositeComposite

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Most Recent CFS

Latest CPC Forecast: El Nino conditions are expected to develop within the next three months

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Figure 6. Upper: Eta model layer 2 (10-40 cm) volumetric soil moisture is relatively moist (dry) inJuly 1999, left (July 2000, right). Lower: Verification of operational Eta model multi-station,monthly-mean2-m air temperature for interior Southwest: moister and cooler (warmer and drier) conditions in July 1999, left (July 2000, right) are well-captured.

Eta model monthly-mean 2-m (C) air

temperature vs obs:interior Southwest

interiorSouthwest

OPERATIONAL COUPLED LAND-ATMOSPHERE ETA MODEL (Model captures interannual variability of daytime max temperature and model soil moisture)

Eta modelend-of-month

2nd layervolumetric

soil moisture relativelydry

relativelymoist

Eta forecast hour00 2412 36 48

obs

Eta

29 C

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30 33 C

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Eta forecast hour00 2412 36 48

obs

Eta

July 1999 July 2000

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Most recent upgrade in Noah land model physics: snowpack physicsEliminate early bias in springtime depletion of significant winter snowpack

Revised physics of: A) surface evaporation over patchy snow coverB) surface albedo over snow cover

Mean snow waterequivalent (SWE)over 110 SNOTEL sites of western CONUS.

Control Noah run: greenRevised Noah run: yellowyellowObs (SNOTEL): black

From N. American Land Data Assimilation System(NLDAS)

Winter 1996-1997

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Climate Test Bed

• Mission– To accelerate the transition of research and

development improvements to NOAA operational climate forecasts

• High profile activities– Product generation/test

– Model assessment

– Reanalysis applications

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Climate Test Bed Status

• Director (Wayne Higgins of CPC) and Deputy Director (Hua Lu Pan of EMC) named

• Resource allocation ongoing (within NCEP)• Additional resources being provided through OGP

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Summary• NCEP provides critical operational support to climate-

weather product stream• NCEP focus: seasonal-interannual-decadal• Infrastructure support is in place

– Computers– Data assimilation (ocean, land and atmosphere)– Coupled global model (atmosphere, land, ocean)– Product generation, product dissemination– Climate Test Bed

• Partnerships are critical element of success– OGP, NASA, NCAR, GFDL, CDC, NCDC, COLA and others

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Issues/Future Opportunities

• Extend ability to provide seasonal prediction (time, space, regime)

• THORPEX/IPY (’07/’08): climate/weather linkage

• Ecosystem forecasts: enhancing the application of climate predictions