NCEP UCAR Review(updated version from AMS presentation)

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction

October 6, 2009

“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

2

Overview

• Motivation for Review• Define NCEP

– Organization and Staff– Introduce Office of Director– Strategic Alignment with Seamless Suite of Products– Collaborative Efforts– Service/Science Linkage: Test Beds

• NCEP Budget/Planning Process• Large Projects• R2O• Forces for Change• Summary

3

Motivation for Review

• NCEP is considered a “National Resource” and a “National Treasure”…– Needs to be treated as such– Outside review is essential

• Last overall review spanned a five year period between 1997-2002

• NCEP has been aggressive in responding to reviews

• Time is now to initiate a new cycle in the review process– Prefer reviewing NCEP in its entirety; rather than sequential

center by center reviews

4

Why Now?

• We Are at a Strategic Crossroad– Some who believe we should expand the predictive

capabilities from the traditional weather and climate into new areas (e.g., ecosystems)

– Others feel we should stick to our core abilities (i.e., weather and short-term climate)

• We Have a New Strategic Plan– Based on internal and external input

– Based on new approaches • Multi-model ensembles, community modeling, etc.

• We Are Moving Into a New Facility• We Are Entering a New Era

5

Define NCEP

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NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products

Space Weather Prediction CenterAviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations

Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Tropical Prediction Center

Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

Organization: Central component of NOAA’s National Weather Service

Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.

Storm Prediction Center

Total FTE: 431167 Contractors/61 Visitors

5 NOAA Corps

Keesha JohnsonSupporting Secretary

Barbara Eubanks Secretary

Sue PerrottaAdministrative Officer

NCEP Office of Director

Louis UccelliniDirector

Lauren MoroneOperations Officer

Kim MontgomeryBudget Officer

Mark MoranChief Science Officer

Dennis StaleyExecutive Officer

Adena FritzAsset Manager

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Director Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

Secretary Barbara Eubanks Admin Support for Director, Coordinate Director’s Calendar, Correspondence, Time & Attendance, Travel Point OC, Tours/Visits.

Secretary Keesha Johnson Admin Support for Office of Director

Executive Officer Dennis StaleyAdvisor to Director, Executive Oversight, Overall Planning and Financial Management, Strategic Planning, Policy, NWSEO/Employee Relations.

Chief Science Officer Commander Mark MoranInteragency and International Coordination, Planning and Execution of Science Activities, Data Collection Requirements, HPC Resource Allocation Council

Operations Officer Lauren MoroneAnnual Operating Plan Milestones, Performance Measures, Weekly/Monthly Reports, Training, Aviation, Directives, Presentations

Administrative Officer Susan C. PerrottaPersonnel, Security, Facilities, Safety, Admin Procedures, EEO, NCEP Table of Organization, OD Office Purchasing

Budget Officer Kim MontgomeryBudget Execution, Budget Operating Plans, Reimbursable Agreements, Line Office Transfers, NCEP Technical Operating Plan

Asset Manager Adena FritzAsset Management, Property Custodian, Designated Agency Representative.

Chief Admin Officer, JCSDA

Vacant

NCEP Office of Director

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Introduce Office of Director

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Climate/WeatherLinkage

Week 2 Hazards Assessment

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

CPC

Fo

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Lea

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Fo

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Lea

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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Benefits

TPCOPCHPC

SWPCAWCSPC

Service Center Perspective

Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 8

Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 :

NDFD, Days 4 -7

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Seasonal Predictions

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Climate/WeatherLinkage

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Climate Forecast System*

Fo

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Lea

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Fo

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Lea

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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Benefits

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model

Hurricane Models

Global Forecast System

North American ForecastRapid Update Cycle for Aviation

Dispersion Models for DHS-GFDL -WRF

NCEP Model Perspective

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Increasing Collaboration Within NCEP Service Centers and the NWS

• AWC/SPC/CWSUs – CCFP

• SPC/WFO– Watch “by county”

• HPC/WFO– Winter Weather Desks– Medium Range: Days 4-7/NDFD

• TPC/HPC/WFO– Hurricane “Hot Line”

• AWC/WFO/CWSU– Collaborative Convective Forecast

Product• CPC/SPC/HPC Regions/WFO/RFC

– Hazard Assessment– Seasonal outlooks/CTB

• OPC/TPC/WFO– Near shore High seas

• HPC-TPC-OPC-AR-PR– Unified Surface Analysis!

• SWPC/AWC– Solar/Aviation Products

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Model Assessment: Engaging the Outside Community

• EMC Planning Meeting (each December)– SSD Chiefs, NCEP Service Center reps and “outside”

participants attend

– Review assessments

– Provide priorities for current and next fiscal year

– Influence next year’s implementations

• Regions and outside participants have opportunity to assess all implementations– Participants decide which to take part in

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Model Assessment: Engaging the Outside Community

• Expanded participation during recent years– NCEP Centers– NWS Regions– University Community– Private Sector

• Mailing list maintained for notifications of upcoming major changes

• Notification is provided to mailing list of upcoming evaluation periods including due dates

• Parallel data sets are made available to those who agree to participate

• Completed evaluations submitted by due date are used as input to decision on implementation

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Management Support for Increasing NWS Interactions with NCEP

• Ongoing support for including regional view in new NCEP Strategic Plan

• Visiting forecaster program• 9 forecasters visited HPC in 2008

• Considering visiting forecast program for OPC

• Spring experiment in Norman– Active inclusion of field forecasters

Examples:

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• EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

• CPC Climate Test Bed

• TPC Joint Hurricane Test Bed

• HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed

• SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL

• SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed (with AFWA)

• AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed (Being developed)

• OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch

Test BedsService – Science Linkage with the Outside Community

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Budget / Planning Process

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Internal Planning ProcessCentered Around NOAA’s PPBES

NOAA Strategic Plan

NWS Strategic Plan

NCEP Strategic Plan

NCEP Operating Plan

NCEP Technical Operating Plan

Center Executive Summaries

Individual Center Multi-Yr Implementation Plans

Individual Performance Plans

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NCEP Technical Operating PlansMapping Resources to Goals

GPRA

NWS GOALS

NCEP GOALS(Strategic Goals)

KEY DELIVERABLES

MILESTONES

BUDGET ALLOCATION

ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN

EXECUTIVESUMMARIES

NTOPELEMENTS

NOAA GOALS

NCEP GOALS(Strategic Goals)

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Performance MeasuresGoals/ObjectivesMilestonesResources ($$/People)

NCEP Technical Operating Plan (NTOP)

Internal Planning Timeline

Nov.Dec.

LateSept.

MidSept

Early Sept. Aug.

Apr.NCOReview

Dec.EMCReview

NTOPS1st draft

Final NTOPWhen Budgetis Allocated

ExecutiveSummary

AnnualOperating

Plan

Identify Agency

Milestones

Internal CoordinationCorporate Board Planning Meeting

Question: How Are We Mapping This NTOP Process Into Individual Performance Plans?

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BudgetHistorical Base Funding (Direct Appropriation)

020406080

100120140

Fiscal Year

$ in

Mill

ions

* Another $10-$15M

Other Funding Sources

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Climate

Weather & Water

Commerce & Transportation

Ecosystems

Mission Support

6%CPC

11%AWCOPC

45%HPC, SPC, TPC, SWPC, NCO OR&F

38%EMC, NCO Supercomputing

*

* Emerging Area

• EMC and NCO Supercomputing Recently Moved to NOAA Mission Support

• NCEP working on Ecosystem White Paper with NOS, OAR and other NOAA components to initiate participation in ecosystem goal

% of NCEP BudgetContributing to NOAA Strategic Plan Goals

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Large Projects

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Large Projects

• New Building • Computer Upgrade • AWIPS2 Transition• NEMS• Multi-model ensembles

– For extreme events, e.g., severe and winter wx

• Satellite data assimilation through JCSDA

• “Decision Support”

• HFIP / WRF-DTC• CFS Upgrade:

Reanalysis/Reforecast• Global HYCOM (w/Navy)• Preparing for Solar Max with

Reorganized SWPC• NextGen Air Transportation

System Modernization• OCONUS support• Air Quality

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NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

• Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF

• Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers

• NESDIS research and satellite services

• OAR Air Resources Laboratory

• Includes 40 spaces for research community

Construction Start 09-May-07

Move Start Est. 2011

Move Complete Est. 2011

Revised Construction Schedule

Main Entrance

Main Entrance

Auditorium

December, 2008

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

Court Yard

Court Yard

December, 2007

August, 2009

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NOAA Center for Weather and

Climate Prediction

NORTH

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center

(in background)

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R2O

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NOAA is working on:

1. Research to Operations Policy (complete)

2. An overarching view of NOAA's research and development that provides criteria for research location

3. A better understanding of how to apportion resource allocations

NOAA Research and Development Funnel

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Launch List – Model Implementation Process

EMCNCO

R&D Operations Delivery

Criteria

Transition from Research to Operations

Requirements

EMC

Schematics in the Model Transition Process

OPS Life cycleSupport

Service Centers

NOAAResearch

Concept of Operations

ServiceCenters

User

Ob

serv

atio

n

Sys

tem

FieldOffices

Effort

EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations

Other Agencies&

International

Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

ASI, COLA,ARCS

Operations to Research

Test BedsJCSDA

CTBWRF DTC

JHT

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NCEP

R2O

1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs…

2. Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps Research-to-Operations (R2O).

Deliver skill-optimized forecast products founded on CTB-based innovation and& customer

feedback; Bring in customer requests

4. Systematic transition steps Operations-to-Applications (O2A).

5. Delivery of products to the

diverse community and customer

feedback

Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition ProcessApplying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process

2

NCEPis well

positionedto provide an operational

infra-structure for

the transition processes

User Community

R&D Community

OPERATIONS

1

3

EMCCFS

5

4

O2A

CTB

CPC

CTB role: facilitate transitions for the CPC specific product range (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal)

O2R

R2O

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Increases in skill of CPC official outlooks: 20% or more (O’Lenic et al 07)

Increases in skill of CPC official outlooks: 20% or more (O’Lenic et al 07)

CTB Spun up

(0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal) (0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal)

CFS (v1.0) implemented

FY09 Goal: 2048-mo Running Mean: 27FY10 Goal: 21Upward Adjustments planned, but depend on implementation time line for CFS v2, etc.

FY09 Goal: 2048-mo Running Mean: 27FY10 Goal: 21Upward Adjustments planned, but depend on implementation time line for CFS v2, etc.

Climate Prediction Advances at NCEP (CFS / CTB) Contributed to improved Forecast Skill

Climate Prediction Advances at NCEP (CFS / CTB) Contributed to improved Forecast Skill

GPRA Performance Measure

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• Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite; run at highest possible resolution – SREF– NAEFS– Climate Forecast System/Service

• Entering the NPOESS era– More rapid access to

hyperspectral data– Increasing IT security: Address

related vulnerabilities

• All models run as coupled Earth system models within ESMF– Models run concurrently – Applied to Ecosystems, Health…….– Community Model Approach (NUOPC;WRF)

• AWIPS2 – Converging NWS applications software systems

Forces for Change

Model Region 1

Model Region 2

Global/Regional Model Domain

ESMF-based System

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Summary• NCEP is:

– Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea”

– Working with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology,…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach

– A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery

– Actively pursuing opportunities for collaboration in research, transition to operations and operational production and delivery of services (both nationally and internationally)

– Still consider NCEP to be an underutilized entity by the research and operational communities