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Sergio René Araujo Enciso Economist
Medium-term Outlook and
Market Analysis
Trade and Markets Division
OECD-FAO
2019-2028 Agricultural Outlook Special Focus: Latin America
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10/3/2019 2 OECD-FAO
Key messages
Prices Consumption
• Real prices for most commodities to decline
• Productivity to stay ahead of demand growth
• Expected volatility varies by commodity
• Strong demand growth from Africa and Asia
• Higher consumption of dairy, sugar and fats
• More crops drawn into feed, biofuel saturated
Production Trade
• Output of main commodities up 15% by 2028
• Productivity increases dominate growth • Global agricultural
land use largely
unchanged
• Trade important for food security and livelihoods
• Black Sea region and South America expand export shares
• China’s imports stagnant, but at a high level
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10/3/2019 3 OECD-FAO
Projection of FAO’s Food Price Index
Supply and demand
fundamentals keep real
international reference
price trends slightly
declining.
Most food commodity
prices follow similar
trends due to
substitutability and
complementarities.
The additional resources
can be mobilized at lower
prices.
0
50
100
150
200
250
Index 2
002
-04=
100
FAO Food Price Index (real)
Projected Real
FAO Food Price Index (nominal)
Projected Nominal
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10/3/2019 4 OECD-FAO
Consumption: demand drivers
Population: most significant driver of total food
consumption
Per-capita food demand:
• Income: linked especially to growth in meat and dairy
consumption
• Urbanization: more processed foods, rich in sugar and fats
• Policies and preferences: shifts in eating patterns influence
meat, fats and sugar
Feed: growing demand for livestock products, higher feeding
intensity to outweigh gains in feeding efficiency.
Biofuel: Policies to reduce local pollution and support
farmers
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Production: decomposition of growth
Yield improvements and
higher crop intensity
account for the bulk of
crop output growth. Area
expansion mostly in
oilseeds and cotton.
Production growth
projected mainly by herd
enlargements for poultry
and sheep meat, while
additional productivity
improvements to drive
growth in pigmeat, beef,
and milk.
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
20
16
/18
- 2
028
Crops
Area
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Milk Poultry Sheepmeat Beef andveal
Pigmeat20
16
/18
- 2
02
8
Livestock
Herd size
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Trade: volumes and regional developments
Basic trade patterns
expected to continue
Growing import
dependency of Africa;
high, but stagnant
imports by China
Latin America and the
Caribbean are expected
to further increase
exports, while North
American shipments
level off
Comprehensive and
Progressive Agreement for
Trans-Pacific Partnership
(CPTPP) and the EU-Japan
Economic Partnership
Agreement (EPA) are
included
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
Bill
ion c
onsta
nt U
SD
North America Latin America and the Caribbean
Europe Africa
China India
Oceania
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10/3/2019 7 OECD-FAO
Chapter 2: Latin American Agriculture: Prospects and
Challenges
Slowing global demand growth
affects the agricultural sector of the
region, but by capturing increasing
global market shares, it is expected
to maintain higher production
growth rates.
The region is simultaneously
experiencing multiple forms of
malnourishment. While many
households will still be unable to
afford the food they need, the
number of overweight and obese
people will further increase.
Support policies should support strategic investments into
sustainable productivity
improvements and promote
equitable growth.
Ensure income growth among the
poorest families, and evaluate
policies and scale up successful
initiatives.
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Thank you
For more information visit our website:
www.agri-outlook.org or contact us at:
[email protected]
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