ORGANIZACIJSKI ODBOR ORGANIZING COMMITTEE · Ramadan Duraku, Kristi Bombol Key findings from literature review on traffic incident management 42 Elvis Fičur, Robert Muha Models for

Slovensko društvo za znanost v prometu

in Fakulteta za pomorstvo in promet (Univerza v Ljubljani)

Pomorski fakultet (Sveučilište u Splitu) Polish Naval Academy (Gdynia)

17. MEDNARODNO POSVETOVANJE O PROMETNI ZNANOSTI

17TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TRANSPORT SCIENCE

ICTS 2015

POMORSTVO, PROMET IN LOGISTIKA

MARITIME, TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS SCIENCE

ZBORNIK REFERATOV

CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS

21. – 22. MAJ 2015

PORTOROŽ, SLOVENIJA

PROGRAMSKI ODBOR

PROGRAM COMMITTEE

Elen Twrdy, Slovenia – President

Nikola Račić, Croatia – Vice-president

Milan Batista, Slovenia

Kristi Bombol, FYR Macedonia

Stane Božičnik, Slovenia

Olja Čokorilo, Serbia

Karel Havel, Slovakia

Janis Kokars, Latvia

Serđo Kos, Croatia

Tomasz Lus, Poland

F. Xavier Martínez de Osés, Spain

Sanja Steiner, Croatia

Pero Vidan, Croatia

ORGANIZACIJSKI ODBOR

ORGANIZING COMMITTEE

Marina Zanne, Slovenia – President

Patricija Bajec, Slovenia – Secretary

Pero Vidan, Croatia

Referati so recenzirani z mednarodno recvenzijo.

Založnik: Fakulteta za pomorstvo in promet, Portorož, 2015

Uredniki: Marina Zanne, Patricija Bajec, Pero Vidan

Naklada: 100 izvodov

© 2015 by FPP Portorož

CIP - Kataložni zapis o publikaciji Narodna in univerzitetna knjižnica, Ljubljana

656(082)(0.034.2)

MEDNARODNO posvetovanje o prometni znanosti (17 ; 2015 ; Portorož) Pomorstvo, promet in logistika [Elektronski vir] : zbornik referatov = Maritime,

transport and logistics science : conference proceedings / 17. mednarodno

posvetovanje o prometni znanosti = 17th International Conference on Transport

Science - ICTS 2015, 21.-22. maj 2015, Portorož, Slovenija ; [organizirala] Slovensko društvo za znanost v prometu in Fakulteta za pomorstvo in promet (Univerza v Ljubljani) ... [et al.] ; [uredniki Marina Zanne, Patricija Bajec, Pero

Vidan]. - Portorož : Fakulteta za pomorstvo in promet, 2015

ISBN 978-961-6044-98-1

1. Gl. stv. nasl. 2. Vzp. stv. nasl. 3. Zanne, Marina 4. Slovensko društvo za znanost v prometu

279640320

17th

International Conference on Transport Science – ICTS 2015

~ Conference proceedings ~

i

INDEX

Emre Akyuz, Metin Celik

A conceptual framework for maritime project towards human reliability analysis

(HRA) and monitoring in shipboard operations (H-RAMS)

1

Oliver Bajt

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in sediments of the gulf of Trieste-

distribution, sources and temporal trends

11

Ivana Čavka, Olja Čokorilo Air transport development within the Adriatic basin

17

Mirko Čorić, Anita Gudelj Compression of iris images in the safety of marine systems using image processing

methods and classified vector quantization

28

Branislav Dragović, Davorin Kofjač, Maja Škurić, Andrej Škraba, Tomislav

Markolović

Emission inventories from ships in the Adriatic’s urban regions

35

Ramadan Duraku, Kristi Bombol

Key findings from literature review on traffic incident management

42

Elvis Fičur, Robert Muha Models for the introduction of alternative fuels in the Republic of Slovenia

54

Stipe Galić, Zvonimir Lušić, Danijel Pušić

Nautical tourism and analysis of marinas, boat and yacht traffic in Split-Dalmatia

County

62

Andrzej Grzadziela, Bogdan Szturomski

Operational and construction problems of the firefighting installation on naval vessels

74

Lucjan Gucma, Andrzej Bak

Stochastic model of ships traffic as a tool of waterway design in respect to different

traffic solutions in Świnounjście – Szczecin waterway

83

Maciej Gucma, Katarzyna Gawdzińska, Barbara Kwiecińska

Metal composite foams – selected properties

94

Blanka Ivančić-Kačer, Frane Mitrović

Lease contract

100

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ii

Dalibor Ivanišević, Luka Grbić Comparison between conventional LNG carriers and SRV-LNG carriers

108

Ivan Ivković

Transport indicators within the areas of ports in the Adriatic region: motor vehicle

traffic volumes and analysis

118

Zdeslav Jurić, Nikola Račić, Đorđe Dobrota

Thermodynamic analysis of onboard compressed air supplied system

131

Violeta Jurkovič Logistics, logistical, logistic: diachronic and synchronic corpus analysis

139

Nexhat Kapidani

Maritme single window as a solution of e-navigation

149

Izabela Kotowska

The impact of the sulphur directive on European shipping market

159

Maciej Kozak, Artur Bejger, Maciej Gucma

Control of back-to-back inverters exciting synchronous and squirrel-cage electric

generators in parallel connection

170

Urša Kralj, Petra Bizjak, Edi Debernardi Effective ship – shore management: Ensuring safety and business optimization

178

Maja Krčum, Marina Brodarić, Veljko Plazibat Impact of technological environment in strategic development of maritime company

187

Ivica Kuzmanić, Igor Vujović, Joško Šoda

The impact of the noise in the fibers to vessel’s communications

195

Kristofor Lapa, Blenard Xhaferaj

A case study on the stability analysis of a passenger ship in lake Koman in Albania

200

Kinga Lazuga, Lucjan Gucma, Andrzej Bak

Optimization of oil spill response resources locations on the example of heavy oil spill

on the Gdansk bay area

211

Christoph Link, Regine Gerike

Rail freight system in central Europe – satisfaction and demands from the user’s perspective

219

Blaž Luin, Stojan Petelin, Franc Dimc

Energy labeling of road network

232

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iii

Justyna Łukomska-Szarek, Agnieszka Wójcik-Mazur

Realization of a budgetary expenditures in the area of transport and communication by

local self-government units in Poland

240

Marino Lupi, Alessandro Farina, Fabio Severi

A comparison of deep sea container routes in the years 2011 – 2014

251

Axel Luttenberger, Lidija Runko Luttenberger

Environmental aspects of public procurement in transport sector

261

Ana Macura

Challenges of logistic research

275

Marta Mańkowska The concept of development of passenger ferry services in Baltic Sea Region in terms

of the growing interbranch competition

285

Željko Marušić, Dajana Bartulović, Ivan Forjan

Improvement of crew resource management (CRM) regarding Germanwings flight

9525 disaster

299

Agata Mesjasz-Lech

Logistic determinants of the freight transport by road development in Poland

306

Mario Milošević, Peter Jenček Technical means for safe stopping of vehicles – “Air stinger” (AIST)

318

Gabriela Mitran, Sorin Ilie, Viorel Nicolae, Adrian Vilcan

Microscopic simulation of traffic flows for performance evaluation of complex road

interchange

329

Đani Mohović, Robert Mohović, Mate Barić

Identifying skill gaps in the knowledge and teaching of COLREGS

339

Luka Mudronja, Marko Katalinić, Pero Vidan

Seafarers’ approach for ship manoeuvring in heavy seas

349

Kristijan Novak, Tomislav Josip Mlinarić, Drago Sever

The identification of relevant technical-technological parametres of railway charging

schemes to be used for the upgrade of railway charging systems

356

Marko Pavliha

Integrated maritime and transport policy of Slovenia: utopia or the EU ultimatum?

366

Marko Perkovič, Milan Batista, Peter Vidmar

Mooring analyses of the ro-ro vessel exposed to a strong wind; breakaway case study

375

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iv

Ružica Popović, Dario Medić, Zvonimir Lušić

Winds and waves in Adriatic meteorology

387

Gorazd Požgaj A model of deployment of anti-collision devices for gliders and unmanned aerial

vehicles in Slovenian uncontrolled airspace

399

Željka Primorac Current issues on the establishment of European list of ship recycling facilities

410

Tomislav Skračić

The Betinska gajeta - Successful multi-purpose design since 1745

423

Tatjana Stanivuk, Ivana Zore, Milan Simić

Importance of port, floating and ship cranes in maritime transportation

434

Goran Stankovič, Stojan Petelin

Technologically advanced evacuation models and their influence on the risk analyses

during accidents in LNG terminal

449

Sanja Steiner, Ana Šimecki, Srđan Ljubojević

Air transport connectivity scenario of regional development

460

Petra Sušec, Marko Bek, Nikola Holeček

Road traffic noise along main road Arja vas – Velenje

474

Maja Škurić, Milena Bataković, Ervin Spahić, Aleksandar Božović, Milijana Ðinović

Montenegrin marinas and nautical ports: Potential area for improvement

483

Igor Štimac, Damir Vince, Ivica Kovačić

Analysis of European airports’ strategy during the global economic crisis

489

Matúš Šucha

Driver`s and pedestrian`s interaction at zebra crossings in urban settings

498

Dariusz Tloczynski

The analysis of transport accessibility in airports as the part of the competitiveness in

regions. Case study of Polish airports

507

Nataša Tomić-Petrović New legislation in the field of maritime law in the Republic of Serbia

515

Vassilis Tselentis, Branislav Dragović, Aleksa Ćorić, Ervin Spahić, Danijela Orlandić

Study of sustainable marinas in Montenegro

523

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v

Blanka Tundys

Evaluating green supply chain – role of transport and low-carbon economy

530

Blanka Tundys

Key performance indicators as element of assessment and towards the development of

sustainable mobility

540

Pero Vidan, Mihaela Bukljaš-Skočibušić, Jure Rubić

Effects of new technologies on human errors

554

Peter Vidmar, Marko Perkovič

Safety assessment of passenger ship

563

Igor Vujović, Joško Šoda, Zlatan Kulenović, Ivica Kuzmanić, Slavica Vujović Kežić

Vibration signal analysis as ship's diagnostic's tool

575

Anete Wlodarczyk

Analysis of carbon dioxide emissions by road transport in EU using Kuznets curve

approach

588

Aleš Zupančič Model of application of unmanned aerial vehicles in Slovenia

602

Luka Žunec, Marko I. Valič, Andrej Stijepić

System for guiding to vacant parking places for motion-disabled persons in Ljubljana

612

SPONSORS 624

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AIR TRANSPORT CONNECTIVITY SCENARIO OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Sanja Steiner, PhD

University of Zagreb

Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences

Vukelićeva 4, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia

[email protected]

Ana Šimecki, PhD

South East Europe Transport Observatory (SEETO)

Omladinskih Brigada 1, 11198 Belgrade, Serbia

[email protected]

Srđan Ljubojević, MSc University of Defence

Pavla Jurišića Šturma 1, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia

ABSTRACT

Scientific problem elaborated in the paper refers to insufficient development of inland transport

infrastructure and of air transport connections within the South East European region which hinders

citizens’ mobility as well as economic progress of the region. Targeted research has been done in 2012

and 2013 on sample SEETO1 network, which encompassed seven regional participants, including

Croatia prior to accession to the European Union. The paper presents developed Air Transport

Connectivity Model based on comparison criteria for transport mode options on the route samples by

applying method of multi-criteria decision. Establishment of identified air transport connections would

contribute to strategic objective of the regional transport system efficiency. Implementing scenario of

Air Transport Connectivity Model in the South East Europe would support development of regional

air transport on the line of European transport policy and White Paper 2011.

Key words: Air Transport, connectivity modeling, regional development, South East Europe.

1 INTRODUCTION

Transport is a key factor in development of international trade, regional integration and

national and regional economy where insufficiently developed transport system hampers

physical access to the market and thus prevents exchange of commodities and passenger

mobility. As a prerequisite for further integration into European Union (EU) networks and

market, it is necessary to establish appropriate connectivity within the South East European

(SEE) region and connect internal regional market.

1 SEETO – South East Europe Transport Observatory

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The main output of joint cooperation between seven Regional Participants2 and the European

Commission was the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the

Development of the Core Regional Transport Network in 2004. The multimodal Core

Regional Transport Network i.e. SEETO Comprehensive Network (SCN) defined under the

MoU represents a commonly agreed main and ancillary transport infrastructure in the SEE,

which is the base for the implementation of transport related investments programs. Seventeen

international airports in seven Regional Participants, with highest importance in the SEE

region, constitute air transport infrastructure as a part of the SEETO Comprehensive Network.

When focusing on air transport connectivity in the South East Europe, the factors such as

economic characteristics of the region as well as the level of social development should be

taken into account together with technical parameters of air transport system [1]. Scientific

research in the field of air transport connectivity differentiates spatial and temporal approach

in the definition of air transport connectivity. Spatial approach theory is elaborated in the

context of air transport network analysis by application of existing models such as graph

theory, modeling locations of potential node airports and implementation of the concentration

and dispersion measures [2]. Temporal approach is a modern approach used in air transport

connectivity analysis that emerged in response to increasing complexity of the air traffic

system. Temporal approach in the definition of air transport connectivity is highly used for

evaluation of connectivity within European air transport networks due to its high complexity

and large number of transfer flight on a daily basis [3].

In order to comprise both spatial and temporal variables it is necessary to define basic

configuration of the network according to the level of spatial and temporal airport

concentration [4]. Figure 1 shows existing air transport network structures with several

prototypes of nodal and linear structures included.

Figure 1: Graphical view of nodal airport connectivity and accessibility [5]

Summarizing above stated air transport connectivity models, it is perceivable that basic

condition for their usage is fully developed air transport network and its purpose is further

optimization for improvement of accessibility and connectivity within the existing network.

However, those models are not applicable in the evaluation of intraregional air transport

network in the SEE because their precondition is to establish complex and integrated hub and

spoke network with high number of daily flights. Until now there is no established regional

2Regional Participants – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of

Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo

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hub in the SEE being the basis for modeling networks on a temporal approach and it highlight

the need for targeted air traffic connectivity model development. Aforementioned approach

presents directions that can be evaluated in future research on air transport connectivity in the

SEE when the basic conditions will be fulfilled [1].

2 CRITERIA SET FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AIR TRANSPORT

CONNECTIVITY MODEL IN THE SOUTH EAST EUROPE

The Air Transport Connectivity Model processed 136 air transport connections among

seventeen SEETO Comprehensive Network international airports in the South East Europe.

By its very nature, the problem of air transport connectivity underdevelopment in the SEE can

be observed as a problem of multi-criteria ranking of air transport connections alternatives in

the network among the SCN airports.

Given the current state of air transport in the SEE region - underdevelopment of overall

transport network; insufficient number of studies that focused on economic character of

identified research problem; unavailability of precise data on origin-destination passenger

transport and uncertainty in estimation of required parameters, it was not possible to use

common, explicit economic criteria pertaining to profitability, efficiency and economic

viability of the air transport connection as the main criteria for evaluation of air transport

connections importance. Instead of these criteria, ranking of air transport connection

alternatives is made according to the criteria which value can be determined or estimated from

the available data with a high degree of reliability. Accordingly, problem of generating air

transport connections in the SEE is perceived in terms of aspects between the need for

establishment of air transport connections and the general principles of relative effectiveness

of different transport modes. Therefore, only primary network of direct connections among

the SCN airports were considered for model input.

The decision which network configuration type would provide the highest benefits for the

regional air transport development is brought based on research results of the survey

conducted on the SCN airport representatives.

Survey confirmed that current operations in the SEE are performed under “point to point” network configuration while regarding possible implementation of “hub and spoke” network, airports Zagreb, Belgrade, Skopje and Pristina tend to apply this operation model. Thus, the

model is based on a “point to point” network configuration which outcome should provide guidelines for the establishment of fully connected “point to point” network in the SEE.

Three main criteria and six sub-criteria are determined as main model input parameters. First

criteria “Technical specifications of air transport connection” in this case presents a combination of two possible priorities differentiation and comparison when establishing air

transport connection among the SEETO Comprehensive Network airports which are a) length

of the observed air transport connection and b) concerned airports technical specifications.

Second criteria “Regional importance of air transport connection” evaluates market demand, respectively social and economic justification of operations establishment on observed air

transport connections. Accordingly, the air transport connections are evaluated through

aspects of socio-demographic importance and economic importance.

“Competitiveness of air transport connection” is a third criterion that describes air transport connection competitiveness among the SEETO Comprehensive Network airports. It is

evaluated by assessing other transport modes available services on the observed air transport

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connection. Differentiation of air transport connection alternatives according to this criterion

provides comparative advantage to those air transport connections that do not have

competitive operating service provided by other transport modes between observed airport

pairs. In this respect, the existence and the level of service of inland transport connections

between the SCN airports is evaluated.

3 AIR TRANSPORT CONNECTIVITY MODEL IN THE SOUTH EAST EUROPE

3.1 Connectivity Modeling

In accordance with defined ranking and selection criteria for the air transport connections

among the SEETO Comprehensive Network airports, due to its complexity, it is very

important to structure the problem hierarchically in order to retain possibility for further

decomposing. In accordance with that, fuzzy interpretation of AHP3 method is used for air

transport connection alternatives evaluation, as it enables elimination of uncertainties which

may arose where data assumptions are used. In fuzzy AHP approach, triangular fuzzy

numbers are used:

(1)

where is:

nl - lower value,

nm - medium value,

nu- upper value of fuzzy number,

and where the affiliation number is defined as:

(2)

All basic mathematical operations in fuzzy environment are used in accordance with

commonly accepted operations of triangular fuzzy numbers:

(3)

to sum triangular fuzzy numbers,

(4)

to multiply triangular fuzzy numbers,

(5)

to divide triangular fuzzy numbers,

(6)

to negate triangular fuzzy numbers.

3 AHP - Analytic Hierarchy Process

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In order to apply fuzzy AHP method on ranking and selection of air transport connections, the

problem has been hierarchically structured in four levels (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Hierarchy structure of the air transport connections ranking

In defined criteria set and in established hierarchy structure of air transport connections

ranking and selection problem, when applying fuzzy AHP method, each criteria is possible to

be further decomposed and analyzed in compliance with available data or on the basis of the

assumptions when the data is not available.

Following the results of the research published in scientific paper “Design and Development of Decision Making System Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process” [6], standard Saaty scale for pairwise comparison is fuzzyficated and applied in fuzzy AHP method according to

defined linguistic expression [7].

In order to define relevant weighting factors which are crucial input for Air Transport

Connectivity Model in the SEE development, the experts’ opinion inquiry was realized through online questionnaires. Two groups of experts were interviewed where “primary” expert’s group answers were used for model tightening factors defining and the other “control” expert’s group answers were used for model results validation.

Interviewed primary expert group was consisted of 38 air transport experts who provided their

opinion on the importa

nce of each criteria and sub criteria, and their degree of dominance in relation to each other

(for each pair of criteria) by choosing appropriate term on a scale of linguistic expressions

(Table 1) and assign it to observed criteria and sub criteria.

Ranking of air transport connections

Alternatives

Connection 1; Connection 2 …….Connection 136

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Table 1: Standard and fuzzyficated Satty scale for pairwise comparison

Standard

value

Definition

(linguistic expression)

Fuzzyficated values

A = (al, am, au)4

1 Same Significance (SS)

(1, 1, 1) if the comparison is done

with themselves

(1, 1, 3) in all other cases

3 Weak Dominance (WD) (2, 3, 4)

5 Strong Dominance (SD) (4, 5, 6)

7 Very Strong Dominance

(VSD) (6, 7, 8)

9 Absolute Dominance

(AD) (8, 9, 9)

2, 4, 6, 8 Intermediate Values (х-1, х, х+1), х=2,4,6,8

Collected or assessed data are used in the process of air transport connection alternatives

pairwise comparison. Pairwise comparison of criteria and sub criteria was based on primary

expert group responses (Table 2).

Linguistic expression which in a largest extent corresponds to a fuzzy number generated as

the arithmetic mean of primary expert group preferences was adopted as an arithmetic value

of expert’s group preferences, according to the folowing expression:

(7)

where is

n - number of correspondents.

Table 2: Results of survey conducted on primary expert group

Linguistic expression SS WD SD VSD AD Average expert group

preference

C1

4 Strong dominance C1 over C2

C2 4 26 4

C1

4 3 4 Weak dominance C3 over C1

C3 4 19 4

C2

4 22 4 Weak dominance C2 over C3

C3 8

SC11

4 23 4 Weak dominance SC11 over SC12

SC12 7

SC21 1

10 13 Same significance SC21 and SC22

SC22 4 7

SC31 4 4 22 Weak dominance SC31 over SC32

4al – lower value; am – medium value; au – uper value

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preference

SC32 4 4

Congruence of expert group preferences fuzzy arithmetic mean with specific linguistic

expression from Table 2 is identified according to the maximum fuzzy functional dependence

sections height of the observed fuzzy numbers. When elaborating linguistic expression of

experts preferences on specific criteria/sub-criteria pair, it is accepted that expression which

fuzzy interpretation A = (Al, Am, Au) has highest functional dependence section height with

functional dependence of fuzzy number Pexperts group = (Pexperts group l, Pexperts group m, Pexperts group u)

that presents arithmetic mean of experts preferences for observed criteria/sub-criteria ratio.

(8)

where is:

(9)

The example of linguistic expression determination for expert group preferences when

comparing criteria 1 (C1) and criteria 2 (C2) is shown on Graph 1. According to the described

procedure, arithmetic mean of expert group preferences for criteria C1 and C2 ratio

corresponds to linguistic term “strong dominance”.

(10)

Linguistic values of expert’s group preferences in criteria/sub-criteria comparison are

presented as fuzzy values for each criteria/sub criteria, respectively negation of correspondent

fuzzy value if other criteria/sub criteria within evaluated pair received higher preference

score. In that way, the relative ranking weights of criteria and sub-criteria are defined on

expert group preferences.

Graph 1: Primary expert’s group preferences on C1 and C2 criteria ratio

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Consistency Ratio (CR) for previously described procedure of criteria/sub criteria rating is

derived through defuzzification technique (method Center of Gravity). Lower, medium and

upper CR values are defined following traditional crisp consistency CR calculation in AHP

method, for all values of fuzzyficated comparison matrices (lower, medium, upper):

(11)

According to the described procedure, defined expert groups preferences consistency index5

amount CI = 0.0834 [7].

Furthermore, the air transport connections among the SCN airports are mutually ranked and

their relative weightings are determined following the defined criteria, perceived input

alternative parameters, expert’s group preferences and applied defined prioritization model

based on conducted fuzzy AHP method. In order to identify the final list of air transport

connection alternatives, the defuzzification technique, Center of Gravity method, was applied

on the first outgoing results. The seven air transport connections of highest importance

without established air transport services is presented on Graph 2.

Graph 2: Fuzzy relative weightings of first seven of air transport connections without

established air transport services

Out of 18 operable air transport connections among the SEETO Comprehensive Network

airports, 15 are positioned among 26 highest ranked connections with percentage cumulative

sum share of the total sum of the connection alternatives relative weights lower than 50%. It

proves credibility of models air transport connections ranking results in reality and on the

scientifically proven basis further accentuate necessity for establishment of new air transport

connections in the SEE.

5 CI – Consistency Index

1

0

1

3

Rang of contemporary non-existent routes

2. Route Tirana - Zagreb

5. Route Zagreb - Belgrade

3. Route Tirana - Belgrade

7. Route Sarajevo - Skopje

Membership

function's

value

Alternative's value0,0390280,033165

0,029317

0,0282680,027866

8. Route Tirana - Pristina

0,024003

9. Route Tirana - Sarajevo

0,022353

14. Route Sarajevo - Pristina

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3.2 Validation of the model

With the purpose of model results confirmation, it was necessary to conduct a process of Air

Transport Connectivity Model in the SEE verification and validation. Although verification

and validation of the model are conceptually different, the fact that they are in a dynamic

feedback enabled simultaneous performance of both processes.

Given that the concept of AHP is scientifically accepted, and that no standardized and

universally accepted procedure of various models verification and validation exists in the

scientific literature, the process of the Air Transport Connectivity Model verification and

validation is focused at relative weighting criteria verification and evaluation of the impact of

changes in mutual ranking criteria on final results which are most delicate stages of each

multi-criteria prioritization.

Table 3: Results of survey conducted on control expert group

Relative weights of criteria/sub-criteria are identified following the responses on the survey

conducted on air transport experts group (38 experts) while as previously mentioned,

additional survey has been conducted on control experts group (9 experts) with the purpose of

Air Transport Connectivity Model in the SEE results validation. Control expert group

preferences have been analyzed according to the same procedure as primary expert group

preferences used for model development.

Consistency index (CI) for control expert group criteria/sub-criteria rating is identified

through using defuzzifcation technique (Center of Gravity Method) analogue as in primary

experts group and is in the frame of acceptable values amounting CI = 0.0885.

When comparing primary and control group preferences, it is apparent that ranking of criteria

is identical, although values of mutual ranking among pairs of criteria are different. According

to control expert group preferences, dominance of criteria C2 over criteria C1 and C3 is more

pronounced than is primary expert group preferences. It is also considered according to the

control experts groups preferences that sub-criteria SC31 and SC32 are of same significance

which is not the case in primary expert group preferences where the weak domination of sub

criteria SC31 is indicated.

In the process of Air Transport Connectivity Model in SEE validation, ranking of air transport

connection alternatives is done based on control expert group criteria preferences. When


preference

C1

Strong dominance C1 over C2

C2 2 5 2

C1

1 1 Weak dominance C3 over C1

C3 1 5 1

C2

2 6 Weak dominance C2 over C3

C3 1

SC11

2 4 1 Weak dominance SC11 over SC12

SC12 2

SC21

4 1 Same significance SC21 and SC22

SC22 2 2

SC31 2

3 1 Weak dominance SC31 over SC32

SC32 2 1

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comparing outgoing results derived on the basis of control and primary experts group input

parameters, it is apparent that the only differences are in relative weightings while ranking of

the alternatives remains unchanged.

Considering that criteria and sub criteria ranking is the same in both cases (except for sub-

criteria SC31 and SC32), and that final ranking of air transport connection alternatives is the

same in both cases as well, it can be stated that validity of criteria/sub-criteria relative

weighting is confirmed. Scientifically conducted verification of applied AHP method process

in the development of Air Transport Connectivity Model in the SEE confirms validity of

criteria/sub-criteria relative weights and accordingly it confirms validity of the Air Transport

Connectivity Model in the SEE. Consequently, it can be concluded that developed Air

Transport Connectivity Model in the SEE provides scientifically approved solution which can

be used for resolving of stated scientific problem that “identified insufficient development of

inland transport infrastructure and of air transport connections within the SEE region which

hinders citizen’s mobility as well as economic progress of the region”.

4 MODEL RESULTS APPLICATION AND DISCUSSION

Improvement of flight efficiency and reduction of air transport impacts on the environment

are of the most important issues in European air transport development strategies specified in

SES6 legislation – regulatory packages I and II, which are the basic mechanisms to overcome

future challenges, currently apparent in inefficiency of flight operations and extra costs

amounting to 1 billion Euros per year.

The reform of the European air traffic management system aims to meet the challenge of

significant air traffic increase, as well as contribute the regional services harmonization and

functional integration [8]. It should generate sufficient capacity to manage the growing

number of flights over the European continent, to decrease delays, to enhance safety and cost

efficiency and to lessen the impact on the environment based on four pillars: performance,

single safety framework, new technologies and managing capacity on the ground [9].

Introduction of services on proposed air transport connections in the SEE is in conformity

with the SES objectives, primary relating to routes distance reduction and consequently

improvement of flight and cost efficiency, reduction of fuel consumption and negative impact

on the environment.

At European level it has been calculated that in 2007 the actual flight distance flown per

aircraft was 49 kilometers longer than optimum distance, while reduction of 4 kilometers per

flight would result in cost savings of about €200-250 million per annum, and an annual

reduction in CO2 emissions of approximately 120,000 tones [10].

Due to underdevelopment of direct connections among the SCN7 airports, several airports are

reachable only through European hubs. Four highest frequency air transport connections in

the SEE are linking the SEE and the Western Europe, with the largest number of flights to

European nodal airports (Frankfurt, Munich and Vienna).

6 SES – Single European Sky

7SCN – SEETO Comprehensive Network

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Comparison of distances flown by proposed sample (11 connections) of direct air transport

connections and transfer connections through Airport Vienna is presented on Table 4, whereas

the distance increase of average 278% on transfer connections is apparent.

Table 4: Travel distances on direct and transfer (via Vienna Airport) air transport connections

When comparing value of passenger time saved or lost with road and rail passenger services,

loss of 2,369 Euros is apparent in road transport services and 3,728 Euros in rail (Table 5).

Table 5: Travel time saving on potential air transport connections comparing to road and rail

SCN Airport 1 SCN Airport 2

Direct

connection

(km)

Transfer connection

through Airport Vienna

(km)

Increase (%)

Tirana Zagreb 536 1,049 96

Tirana Belgrade 381 1,249 228

Zagreb Belgrade 348 730 110

Sarajevo Skopje 339 1,285 279

Tirana Sarajevo 290 1,279 341

Sarajevo Pristina 260 1,202 362

Sarajevo Podgorica 179 1,167 552

Osijek Zagreb 216 605 180

Banja Luka Sarajevo 275 851 209

Belgrade Nis 208 1,138 447

Belgrade Pristina 256 1,172 358

SCN

Airport 1

SCN

Airport 2

Travel time

saving - personal

road transport

(EUR)

Travel time

saving -business

road transport

(EUR)

Travel time

saving -

personal rail

transport

(EUR)

Travel time

saving

business - rail

transport

(EUR)

Tirana Zagreb 158 290 0 0

Tirana Belgrade 108 199 0 0

Zagreb Belgrade 40 73 97 178

Sarajevo Skopje 145 265 416 763

Tirana Sarajevo 90 165 0 0

Sarajevo Pristina 126 231 212 389

Sarajevo Podgorica 53 98 426 781

Osijek Zagreb 24 44 65 119

Banja Luka Sarajevo 31 57 49 91

Belgrade Nis 12 22 50 92

Belgrade Pristina 49 89 0 0

Total 836 1,533 1,316 2,413

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The value of travel time that might alternatively be spent working has been calculated by

applying gross wage costs. For leisure travel, the approach has been to apply the net wage

rate since that is the amount the wage earner must sacrifice to have additional leisure time

[11].

Graph 3: CO2 emissions on direct and transfer (via Vienna Airport) air transport connections

The increase in air transport connection distance is in direct correlation to the increase of fuel

consumption and of negative environmental impact apparent the amount of emitted CO2

emissions as presented on Graph 3. Hence, one step forward in meeting SES targets could be

done by the introduction of the services on proposed air transport connections.

Figure 3: Operable air transport connections in 2010 and proposed air transport connections

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5 CONCLUSIONS

Targeted research methodologically was based on infrastructure and performance assessment

of road, rail and air transport modes in the South East Europe. Evaluated weaknesses of inland

transport modes argue the potential of the intra-regional route network development.

Following the outcome of the intraregional air transport connectivity assessment, inland

traffic dynamics and planned infrastructure development [12], the Air Transport Connectivity

Model in the South East Europe has been developed. Scientifically conducted verification of

applied AHP method in the development of Air Transport Connectivity Model in the SEE

confirms validity of the model and proposed ranking of potential air transport connections.

Results of the assessment of air transport system in the SEE and the list of proposed air

transport connection by the Air Transport Connectivity Model in the SEE has been confirmed

by identified underdevelopment of road and rail transport services on the connections among

the SEETO Comprehensive Network airports, the reduced passenger mobility caused by low

share (10%) of intraregional air transport connections and identified potentials for regional

development.

New air transport connections within the SEE region could considerably improve mobility

and accelerate economic and social cohesion. The unleashed potential of South East European

air transport market should be highly and efficiently exploited in the following period as to

attract growing demand for air transport from congested EU airports thereby enabling win-

win situation for both parties.

REFERENCES

[1] Simecki, A. (2013). Air Transport Connectivity Model in South East Europe. Doctoral Dissertation. Zagreb: Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, University of Zagreb.

[2] Redondi, R., Burghouwt, G. (2010). Measuring connectivity in air transport networks:

technical description of the available models. Working Paper, Version 11.

[3] Burghouwt, G., De Wit, J. (2005). Temporal configurations of European airline networks.

Journal of Air Transport Management, 11 (3), 185-198.

[4] Veldhuis, J., Kroes, E. (2002). Dynamics in relative network performance on the main

European hub airports. European Transport Conference, Cambridge.

[5] Tinkler, K. J. (1977). An introduction to graph theoretical methods in geography. Concepts

and Technics in Modern geography 14. Norwich: GEO Abstracts, University of East Anglia.

[6] Chin, W.C., Lee, H.J., Mak, C.M., Amy, L.H.L. (2008). Design and Development of

Decision Making System Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 5 (7), 783 – 787.

[7] Triantaphyllou, E. (2000). Multi-Criteria Decision Making Methods: A Comparative Study.

Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

[8] Steiner, S., Mihetec, T., Božičević, A. (2010). Prospects of Air Traffic Management in South

Eastern Europe. Promet-Traffic&Transportation, 22 (4), 293-302.

[9] European Commission (2008). Single European Sky II: Towards more sustainable and better

performing aviation. COM 389 final, Brussels.

[10] Department of Air Transport, Cranfield University (2011). Fuel and air transport, Report for European Commission, Cranfield.

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[11] EUROCONTROL (2011). Standard Inputs for EUROCONTROL Cost Benefit Analyses.

Brussels.

[12] Šimecki, A., Steiner, S., Čokorilo, O. (2013). The Accessibility Assessment of Regional

Transport Network in the South East Europe. International Journal for Traffic and Transport Engineering. 3 (4), 351-364.

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