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P²-ROTECT – Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats. Jeffrey Apeldoorn et al. Overview of the Presentation. Context Project Project Consortium & Personal Introduction Protection Solutions against Space Debris Conclusions & Next Steps - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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P2ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats
Space Debris Event DayGraz, August 12th, 2011
P²-ROTECT – Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats
P²-ROTECT – Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats
Jeffrey Apeldoorn et al.
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 2
Overview of the PresentationOverview of the Presentation
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 3
Overview of PresentationOverview of Presentation
Context Project Project Consortium & Personal Introduction Protection Solutions against Space Debris Conclusions & Next Steps Contact details & Questions
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 4
Context ProjectContext Project
600.000 objects
larger than 1 cm
150 Million objects
larger than 1 mm6 Billion objects
larger than 100 µm
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 5
P²-ROTECT contextP²-ROTECT context
Evolution of catalogued space debris (CSD) since 1957 (Source
NASA)
Uncatalogued space debris (USD) are only known via flux measurements. Their number is estimated to some billions.
What can we do to improve space assets security from
on-orbit collisions ?
1. Evaluate risk versus orbits 2. Investigate solutions (predict CSD, protect from
USD, remove risky SD)3. Recommend solutions versus orbits by evaluating
risk reduction
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 6
P²-ROTECT General InfoP²-ROTECT General Info
P²-ROTECT = Prediction, Protection & Reduction of Orbital Exposure to Collision Threats
Project within the EU‘s 7th Framework Programme in the activity “Strengthening of space foundations”.
Project had its kick-off in February 2011 Total Budget ~3 Million Euro of which EU contributes ~2 Million Euro Total duration of 30 months To minimize the impact of the ever increasing threat of Space
Debris, different strategies to enhance mission protection will be established by a European consortium composed in a multi-disciplinary manner, involving research organizations and academia, on the one side and industrial companies and SME on the other.
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 7
P²-ROTECT objectivesP²-ROTECT objectives
Objective 1: Provide a quantitative tool to evaluate the vulnerability of space missions in relation to SD collisions.
Objective 2: Quantify the vulnerability of specific current space missions of interest for Europe.
Objective 3: Analyse core techniques to reduce space missions’ vulnerability (prediction, protection, removal), based on the analysis of the effects of on-orbit collisions (with both trackable and untrackable debris) while identifying mitigating solutions.
Objective 4: Propose recommendations for risk-minimising architectures leading to reduced vulnerability of space assets specific to mission types.
Objective 5: Quantify the vulnerability reduction for specific future space missions of interest for Europe using proposed recommendations.
Objective 6: Disseminate results towards space community and provide a cross-fertilisation of results with the ESA Space Situational Awareness Programme.
Evaluate risk versus orbits
Investigate solutions
Recommend solutions versus orbits by evaluating risk reduction
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 8
P²-ROTECT Consortium & Personal IntroductionP²-ROTECT Consortium & Personal Introduction
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 9
P²-ROTECT ConsortiumP²-ROTECT Consortium
Onera: Vulnerability evaluation, better prediction of collisions.OHB-System AG: LEO/MEO/GEO missions knowledge, better
protection, active debris removal for LEO.TAS-I: LEO/MEO/GEO missions knowledge, better protection,
active debris removal for MEO/GEO.Tubitak: Better protection, missions operations, dissemination.EMI: Physical component damage evaluation.TUBS: Debris environment knowledge (MASTER model).TELINT: Contribution to dissemination
Research organisms, Academia, Industry & SME
ONE31%
OHB24%
TAS-I18%
EMI12%
TBU8%
TUBS6%
TEL1%
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 10
OHB-System AG, FactsOHB-System AG, Facts
OHB-System AG, subsidiary of OHB AG
OHB-System AG is a subsidiary of OHB AG The group total revenues in 2010 were 460 million Euro As of now, the OHB AG Group has approx. 2,250 employees
(Year-end 2009: 1,550) OHB AG is listed as No. 3 in the European manufacturer market, and No.
8 among the overall European space markets
(Source: Space News, August 3, 2009). OHB-System AG is the leading German satellite manufacturer in the
launch mass range up to 800 kg in LEO and MEO, and for a launch mass of up to 3200 kg for GEO satellites.
ESA has included OHB-System AG into the definition as
“Large Systems Integrator” OHB-System AG is today the third satellite prime in Europe OHB-System’s headquarters at the Bremen Technology Park is home to
400 highly qualified engineers and scientists Major contracts won recently include the Galileo project and Meteosat Third Generation (MTG)
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 11
Personal IntroductionPersonal Introduction
Jeffrey Apeldoorn, M.Sc. Born in the Netherlands, currently working in Germany Studied Aerospace Engineering at Delft, University of Technology Employer: since nov 2007 at OHB-System AG in Bremen, Germany
(Largest German Space company)in the Space System Studies Directorate (Phase 0/A/B)
ISU: SSP09 at NASA Ames and Class Representative Project Manager in OHB for:
P²-ROTECT (EC project) Scenario Studies for Human Spaceflight & Exploration (ESA project)
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 12
Which problems exist with space debris?Which problems exist with space debris?
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 13
Two different problems existTwo different problems exist
Untrackable space debris
1. Collision probability : high, depends on orbits, repeatedly
2. Collision severity : medium to high
3. Collision predictability : no
Trackable space debris
1. Collision probability : low, depends on orbits
2. Collision severity : catastrophic
3. Collision predictability : yes, but fuel consumption for manoeuvres
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 14
Possible solutions must be traded-off (1/3)Possible solutions must be traded-off (1/3)
Untrackable space debris
1. Collision probability : high, depends on orbits, repeatedly
2. Collision severity : medium to high
3. Collision predictability : no
Trackable space debris
1. Collision probability : low, depends on orbits
2. Collision severity : catastrophic
3. Collision predictability : yes, but fuel consumption for manoeuvres
Desired : one index to quantify the best solutions to reduce risk depending on
missions.
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 15
Possible solutions must be traded-off (2/3)Possible solutions must be traded-off (2/3)
Environment situation
Physical damage to components
over time
Functional performance of
components over time
Functional performance of
mission over time
Fuel consumption due to collision avoidance manœuvres over time
Untrackable debrisTrackable debris
+ Space Surveillance Networkknowledge
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 16
Possible solutions must be traded-off (3/3)Possible solutions must be traded-off (3/3)
Business As Usualenvironment
situation
Future environment
situation
Functional performance of
mission over time
Functional performance of
mission over time
Vulnerability index
SEVERITY of performance degradation
-
For one space mission
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 17
Protection solutions against Space DebrisProtection solutions against Space Debris
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 18
Possible solutions to be investigatedPossible solutions to be investigated
Increase quality of prediction Reduce useless manoeuvres
Increase protection Reduce collision severity
Action on environment Reduce collision probability
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 19
Increase quality of predictionIncrease quality of prediction
Increase quality of prediction Reduce useless manoeuvres
Reduction of detection threshold for trackable objects Increased prediction reliability Increased prediction accuracy Decreased prediction delay
600.000 objects
larger than 1 cm
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 20
Increase protection (1/2) Increase protection (1/2)
Increase protection Reduce collision severity
Improvement of spacecraft protection by innovative shielding: e.g. the multi layer solution for the ISS
Improvement of spacecraft protection by enhanced redundancy and design:Building in more redundancy with vital components, re-locating vulnerable components to different areas of the satellite (Calculations with ESABASE2)
Spacecraft self-protection: attitude control by S/C itself such that impacts have less impact
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 21
Increase protection (2/2) Increase protection (2/2)
Increase protection Reduce the risk of hits or even avoid them
Fractionated mission design: divide the Mission functionality over multiple satellites (e.g. MTG)
Improved mission operations: adaptation of the mission planning -> avoidance manoeuvres
Maintenance and repair of satellites in orbit by a servicing mission
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 22
By Hyper Velocity Impact tests!
Testing of Shielding MethodsTesting of Shielding Methods
But how do we verify new innovative shielding methods?
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 23
Impact SimulationsImpact Simulations
Impact Simulations The Ernst-Mach-Institute, EMI, is the
Fraunhofer-Institute for high-speed dynamics. Hypervelocity impact research Space asset vulnerability modeling Shielding for manned space vehicles Impact detection payloads Accelerator research
-> Now time for Videos……
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 24
Possible actions on environmentPossible actions on environment
Action on environment Reduce collision probability
By letting the spacecraft autonomously go into another orbit at their mission end. (End-of-Life Debris Mitigation Measures)
Graveyard orbit De-orbit & (partly) burning up
Or, by removing the End-of-Life satellites with a robotic Orbital Transfer Vehicle (Active de-orbiting or re-orbiting)
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 25
Conclusions & Next StepsConclusions & Next Steps
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 26
P²-ROTECT will provide recommendations for improving space mission survivability.
Recommendations for improving space debris knowledge Recommendations for improving mission and spacecraft design
(Case studies: Sentinel-1 in LEO, Galileo in MEO and MTG in GEO). Recommendations for improving mission planning Establishment of a Vulnerability Index creation Tool (ATLAS) to track
influence of proposed design/mission changes
Conclusions & Next StepsConclusions & Next Steps
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 27
Project Contact DetailsProject Contact Details
P²-ROTECT Website:http://www.p2rotect-fp7.eu/index.html
P2-ROTECT FP7-SPACE-262820, SSP11 - Space Debris Theme Day, 12th of August 2011 Page 28
Contact DetailsContact Details
Questions?Mr. Jeffrey Apeldoorn, M.Sc.
OHB-System AGTel: +49 (0)421 2020 9722Fax: +49 (0)421 2020 700
new email: [email protected]