Personalities, processes, Personalities, processes, politicspolitics

Lecture 3 IEM5010 Summer 2002Lecture 3 IEM5010 Summer 2002

Paul E. Rossler, Ph.D., P.E.Paul E. Rossler, Ph.D., P.E.

Essay 3 questionsEssay 3 questions

1.1. What are the characteristics of an effective What are the characteristics of an effective (or ineffective) new technology or (or ineffective) new technology or development effort?development effort?

2.2. How should new technology or How should new technology or development efforts be designed, managed, development efforts be designed, managed, and led? and led?

3.3. How should a leader or manager deal with, How should a leader or manager deal with, for example,“John Harrison” types or a for example,“John Harrison” types or a Maurice WilkinsMaurice Wilkins-Rosalind Franklin -Rosalind Franklin (or (or Bragg-Crick)Bragg-Crick) type of personality conflict? type of personality conflict?

WebsitesWebsites

• John Harrison John Harrison http://www.rog.nmm.ac.uk/museum/harrhttp://www.rog.nmm.ac.uk/museum/harrison/ison/

• Watson and Crick Watson and Crick http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aso/databank/http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aso/databank/entries/do53dn.htmlentries/do53dn.html

Longitude Act of 1714 Longitude Act of 1714 sounded good on papersounded good on paper

• Objective set (practicable and useful)Objective set (practicable and useful)

• Performance criteria and test procedure Performance criteria and test procedure establishedestablished

• Committee (Board of Longitude) Committee (Board of Longitude) appointed to review proposalsappointed to review proposals

15 years pass and the15 years pass and theBoard had not yet metBoard had not yet met

• No single suggested solution had held No single suggested solution had held enough promise to inspire any five enough promise to inspire any five commissionerscommissioners

• Suspect many ideas were variations on Suspect many ideas were variations on wounded dogs and signal shipswounded dogs and signal ships

Enter a self-educated Enter a self-educated watchmaker, John Harrisonwatchmaker, John Harrison

• Wins support of George GrahamWins support of George Graham• First watch, H1, built between 1730 and 1735First watch, H1, built between 1730 and 1735• Portable version of Harrison’s wooden clocksPortable version of Harrison’s wooden clocks• Linked balance mechanism Linked balance mechanism negates the effects negates the effects

of motion of the clockof motion of the clock• After year delay, passes shipboard test in 1736After year delay, passes shipboard test in 1736• Harrison requests financial assistance from the Harrison requests financial assistance from the

Board of Longitude to make a second marine Board of Longitude to make a second marine timekeepertimekeeper

Harrison’s second attempt Harrison’s second attempt better…but not in his eyesbetter…but not in his eyes

• Began in 1737, completed in 1940Began in 1737, completed in 1940• Fundamentally same design as H1 but larger Fundamentally same design as H1 but larger

and heavierand heavier• Wins full backing of the BoardWins full backing of the Board• But Harrison “already disgusted with it” - bar But Harrison “already disgusted with it” - bar

balances did not always counter the motion of balances did not always counter the motion of a shipa ship

• Harrison requests more money from the Harrison requests more money from the Board to work on a third timekeeperBoard to work on a third timekeeper

The (long in the making)The (long in the making)third attemptthird attempt

• Harrison begins work in 1740Harrison begins work in 1740

• Re-emerges 19 years later with H3Re-emerges 19 years later with H3

• Incorporated two innovations still used Incorporated two innovations still used today: bimetallic strip and Caged roller today: bimetallic strip and Caged roller bearingbearing

• Submitted for testing, but withdrawn in Submitted for testing, but withdrawn in favor of H4favor of H4

The very different fourth The very different fourth attemptattempt

• In 1753, John Jefferys follows In 1753, John Jefferys follows Harrison’s design specs and makes him Harrison’s design specs and makes him a pocket watcha pocket watch

• Changes Harrison’s vision of the sea Changes Harrison’s vision of the sea clockclock

• H4 takes roughly four years to complete H4 takes roughly four years to complete (1755-1759)(1755-1759)

• Presented to Board in 1760Presented to Board in 1760

It’s here that the It’s here that the story takes a turnstory takes a turn

• Astronomy-based methods had been making Astronomy-based methods had been making steady progresssteady progress

• In 1731, Hadley and Godfrey independently In 1731, Hadley and Godfrey independently created the instrument on which lunar method created the instrument on which lunar method depended (quadrant or octant depended (quadrant or octant sextant) sextant)

• By late 1750s, lunar distance method finally By late 1750s, lunar distance method finally looked practicallooked practical– Flamsteed Flamsteed Halley Halley Bradley Bradley– Tobias MayerTobias Mayer– Reverend Nevil MaskelyneReverend Nevil Maskelyne

A long, frustrating waitA long, frustrating wait

• H4 tested in 1762, again in 1764H4 tested in 1762, again in 1764• Board implies watch a fluke; copies Board implies watch a fluke; copies

must be made and testedmust be made and tested• In 1765 Harrison ordered to turn over all In 1765 Harrison ordered to turn over all

watches to Maskelynewatches to Maskelyne• Harrison and son William begin work on Harrison and son William begin work on

H5; recommends Kendall to build K1H5; recommends Kendall to build K1• Not recognized until 1773Not recognized until 1773

But can it be made?But can it be made?

• Kendall’s K2 inferiorKendall’s K2 inferior

• Mudge built three (“Maskelyne’s new Mudge built three (“Maskelyne’s new sparring partner”)sparring partner”)

• Arnold produced several hundred of Arnold produced several hundred of high qualityhigh quality– Farmed out bulk of routine work to Farmed out bulk of routine work to

craftsmancraftsman

But can it be made? But can it be made? (continued)(continued)

• Mudge’s son built 30, but cost twice as much Mudge’s son built 30, but cost twice as much as Arnold’s, not as goodas Arnold’s, not as good

• Arnold and his son’s biggest competition Arnold and his son’s biggest competition came from Earnshawcame from Earnshaw– Earnshaw stuck to single basic designEarnshaw stuck to single basic design– Could turn out chronometer in two monthsCould turn out chronometer in two months– In “patent” suit with Arnold over escapement In “patent” suit with Arnold over escapement

designdesign

• By 1780s prices down to £80 for an Arnold, By 1780s prices down to £80 for an Arnold, £65 for an Earnshaw£65 for an Earnshaw

The road to Watson and Crick, The road to Watson and Crick, Wilkins and FranklinWilkins and Franklin

• In 1943, Oswald Avery proved that DNA In 1943, Oswald Avery proved that DNA carries genetic informationcarries genetic information

• 1948, Linus Pauling discovered that 1948, Linus Pauling discovered that many proteins take the shape of an many proteins take the shape of an alpha helixalpha helix

• In 1950, biochemist Erwin Chargaff In 1950, biochemist Erwin Chargaff found that the amount of certain found that the amount of certain nitrogen bases in DNA always occurred nitrogen bases in DNA always occurred in a one-to-one ratioin a one-to-one ratio

Two competing Two competing (complementary?) paths (complementary?) paths

• At Cambridge University, graduate At Cambridge University, graduate student Francis Crick and research student Francis Crick and research fellow James Watson employ model fellow James Watson employ model building techniquesbuilding techniques

• At King's College in London, Maurice At King's College in London, Maurice Wilkins and Rosalind Franklin use X-ray Wilkins and Rosalind Franklin use X-ray diffraction techniquesdiffraction techniques

Various stages of research Various stages of research and developmentand development

• ExplorationExploration

• Detailed investigationDetailed investigation

• Scientific investigationScientific investigation

• ModelingModeling

• Study/PlanningStudy/Planning

• TestingTesting

• ProjectProject

Who was managing this Who was managing this effort?effort?

• Watson and Crick seemed to be in Watson and Crick seemed to be in stealth modestealth mode– With Watson avoiding, as best he could, With Watson avoiding, as best he could,

learning chemistrylearning chemistry

• Wilkins and Franklin seemed to be at Wilkins and Franklin seemed to be at warwar

Personalities and progressPersonalities and progress

BraggBragg CrickCrick FranklinFranklin WatsonWatson WilkinsWilkins

BraggBragg ------

CrickCrick ------ ++++++

FranklinFranklin ---- ---- ------

WatsonWatson ++++++ ---- ++

WilkinsWilkins ++ ------ ++

Elements of the processElements of the process

• Using available resources of modern Using available resources of modern sciencescience

• Recognizing expertise in various fieldsRecognizing expertise in various fields

• Flexibility of thought (and comfort with Flexibility of thought (and comfort with errors)errors)

• Use of screening mechanisms (grants, Use of screening mechanisms (grants, review boards, peer review)review boards, peer review)

A footnoteA footnote

• Crick, Wilkins, and Watson awarded Crick, Wilkins, and Watson awarded Nobel Prize in 1962Nobel Prize in 1962

• But not Franklin…why?But not Franklin…why?

Lessons learnedLessons learned

Example Product Development and Example Product Development and Management ProcessManagement Process

StageStage GateGate1 - Opportunity Clarification1 - Opportunity Clarification Is this our core business?Is this our core business?

2 - Opportunity Justification2 - Opportunity Justification Is this a good opportunity to Is this a good opportunity to pursue?pursue?

3 - Product Design3 - Product Design Does the product meet the Does the product meet the market needs?market needs?

4 - Product Launch4 - Product Launch Does this product fit our Does this product fit our portfolio?portfolio?

5 - Life Cycle Management5 - Life Cycle Management Should we keep this product Should we keep this product in the portfolio?in the portfolio?

(Source: S. Strattan, 2001)

The Business CaseThe Business Case

• Is the opportunity well defined?Is the opportunity well defined?• Do we understand the market for this product Do we understand the market for this product

and is it financially justified?and is it financially justified?• What is the strategic and technical What is the strategic and technical

importance of the project and the risks importance of the project and the risks associated with it?associated with it?

• Is the opportunity technically feasible?Is the opportunity technically feasible?• What will be our market launch strategy?What will be our market launch strategy?• Can we meet the market or customer delivery Can we meet the market or customer delivery

expectations?expectations?