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Peter Nedergaard: ØMU og eurozonekrisen 18. august 2014. Dagsorden: 1) Hvad er eurozonekrisen? 2) Udslagene 3) Løsningsinitiativerne 4) Forklaringerne 4) Fremtidsperspektiverne. Eurozonekrisen. En gælds- og underskudskrise i eurozonen Udløst af subprimekrisen / Lehman Brothers krak - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Peter Nedergaard:ØMU og eurozonekrisen
18. august 2014Dagsorden:
1) Hvad er eurozonekrisen?2) Udslagene
3) Løsningsinitiativerne4) Forklaringerne
4) Fremtidsperspektiverne
Eurozonekrisen
2
En gælds- og underskudskrise i eurozonen-Udløst af subprimekrisen/ Lehman Brothers krak-Men det var kun den udløsende faktor-Krisen var kommer senere alligevel
Market failures eller government failures?
Indholdet af eurozonekrisen
3
- Store underskud i visse lande pga. offentligt overforbrug eller manglende skatteopkrævning
Tegn:
- Boligboble- Forbrugsfest
Konsekvenser:
- Massearbejdsløshed- Lav økonomisk vækst
Finanspagten
6
1. Intergovernmental aftale – med institutionel EU-back up
2. Skærpelse af Vækst- og stabilitetspagten (QMV for sanktioner)
3. Finanspagten: QMV for at hindre sanktioner
4. Max. 3 pct. konjunkturbetinget underskud
5. Max. 0,5 pct. strukturelt underskud (ordoliberalismen)
6. Nationale budgetlove
The EU Replies to the Euro Crisis
7
Time at agreement
of the initiative at
the EU level
Initiative Purpose Fora of decision-
making
Form of initiative Obstacles
2010 European Financial
Standing Facility
(EFSF)
Loan to member
states
European Council Temporary facility No bail-out clause
in TFEU (Article
123)
2011 Euro Plus Pact Increase
competitiveness
European Council Intergovernmental
agreement
The UK, the
Czech Republic,
Sweden and
Hungary
abstained
2011 European Semester Monitor national
budgets
European
Commission
Supranational EU
law
2011 Six Pack Correction of
macro-economic
imbalances and
sanctions
European
Commission
Supranational EU
law
The EU Replies to the Euro Crisis
8
2011 Buy government
bonds
Lower interest rates
in euro crisis
countries
ECB Market intervention German
Constitutional
Court might
declare plans
illegal (cf. Article
123 in TFEU)
2012 European Stability
Mechanism (ESM)
Loan to member
states
European Council Intergovernmental
institution
The UK, the
Czech Republic,
Sweden and
Hungary
abstained
2012 Fiscal Compact Fiscal discipline European Council Intergovernmental
treaty
The UK and the
Czech Republic
abstained
2013 Two Pack Surveillance
mechanisms
European
Commission
Supranational EU
law
2013 Banking Union Banking supervisory
authority
European
Commission
ECB supervisory
body
Some non-euro
countries will
abstain (e.g. the
UK and Sweden)
Teoretiske forklaringer på eurozonekrisen
9
Euro crisis
Theory
Cause of the political initiatives for the solution to the
euro crisis
Solution to the euro crisis
Neo-functionalism The proposals for closer economic integration and
coordination did not come until some time into the
crisis in 2011, when there was an urgent need to ease
the pressure on the interest rates in crisis countries.
The Fiscal Compact and further tightening of EMU
thereby complete the spill-over process and eliminate
the initial design flaw.
Intergovernmentalism As the leader of the EU Germany accepted the
establishment of EMU to ensure a stable EU, which is
a German interest. It has been an active leader from
2011 and onwards, when the euro crisis began to
affect important German economic and political
interests.
Euro crisis gives Germany an incentive to assume the
role of hegemon, but a solution requires other EU
member states to agree to Germany playing this role.
Ordo-liberalism Germany assesses the 2011 situation and concludes
that the EMU needs a dose of ordo-liberalism in the
form of monetary stability, zero-tolerance towards
public deficits and effective sanctions embedded in a
form of economic constitution.
The decision-makers of the euro countries adjust
institutions as well as their way of thinking in
accordance with the German model. Ordo-liberalism
assumes complete ideological hegemony and is
internalised at the decision-making level in the euro
area.
Prognoser angående en permanent løsning på
eurozonekrisen
10
Prognoses
Theory
Prognosis regarding the solution to the euro crisis: positive or negative?
Neo-functionalism Positive: Once the EU has corrected the design flaws of the EMU through
tightened rules, the euro crisis will be solved.
Intergovernmentalis
m
Positive/ negative: The other euro countries have to accept the hegemon
role of Germany and the German population has to accept the costs of
playing the role of the leader.
Ordo-liberalism Negative: Ideology and institutions are not easily changed into an ordo-
liberal model.
Opsamling
14
•EU har betalt en høj pris for ikke at centralisere den økonomisk-politiske beslutningstagen
1.I første omgang så der ikke ud til at være nogen pris at betale
2.Kommissionen var samtidig tøvende med at tilslutte sig den funktionalistiske argumentation
3.Kommissionen fra 2010: Gennemgang af finanslove om foråret, før de vedtages om efteråret + europagten i 2011: Offentlige lønninger, pensioner, produktivitet, konkurrenceevne.
4.Kommissionen styrer de factor finanspolitikken i Grækenland
5.Finanspagten