Climate change and the response of phenology of Great Tit , Collared Flycatcher, Summer Oak and herbivorous caterpillars during 1961 – 2007 in the Czech Republic

Lenka Bartošová (1), Miroslav Trnka (1), Zdeněk Bauer (1), Petr Štěpánek (2), Jana Bauerová (1), Martin Možný (3), Zdeněk Žalud (1)(1) Institute for Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry Brno, Czech Republic, Lenka_Bartosova@seznam.cz

(2) Department of Climatology and Meteorology, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute Brno, Czech Republic(3) Agrometeorological observatory in Doksany, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Doksany, Czech Republic

phenological input data

t-test, Kendall Rank Correlation test for significance in trends

coherency analyses – at 95% and 99% confidence levels for pheno and meteo

series

Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficient for pairs of pheno stages

meteorological parameters

INTRODUCTIONOn this poster we present phenology of Great Tit, Collared Flycatcher, Summer Oak and herbivorous caterpillars within flood plain forest ecosystem during 1961 and 2007. Phenophases of species mentioned above have shifted during last 47 years to the earlier time and therefore the study focuses on the mutual influence of shifts in phenology of individual species in this simplified trophic chain and its overall stabillity.

AIMS - to find out how shifting of phenophases affect trophic chain of observed species - to analyse if happen mistiming of individual phenophases - to clarify how temperature in particular period correlate with development of phenophases

STUDY AREA- 4 research plots of biogeocenoses group Ulmi-fraxineta carpini - 3776 pairs of Great Tit, 3437 pairs of Collared Flycatcher- 2 species of caterpillars: Winter Moth (Operophtera brumata) and Tortrix Moth (Tortrix viridana)- bud break and full foliage of Summer Oak

METHODOLOGY

Onset of phenophases of a) Summer Oak where the dashed line is bud bursting and continuous line is full foliage; b) Great Tit, for both bird populations the dashed line is FLD (first laying date) and solid line is MLD (mean laying date); c) peak of caterpillar, where the dashed line is start and solid line is end of excrement fall-down; d)Collared Flycatcher

RESULTS

1. shifting of phenophases 4. onset of phenophasesOnset of phenological stages during individual decades of the record. The white bar indicates range of mean and ± st. dev. with mean value being depicted by vertical line. The extend of black bars indicate minimum and maximum values in the individual periods.

2. coherency analysisCoherency analysis between accumulated maximum temperatures above 8°C and Summer Oak bud burst, Great Tit MLD, start of caterpillar peak season and Collared Flycatcher MLD. The sum of maximum temperatures was accumulated for period of Summer Oak: January 1 – April 25, Great Tit: January 1 – April 10, caterpillar: January 1 – April 30, Collared Flycatcher: March 1 – May 5.

3. coherency analysis IICoherency analysis of selected pairs of phenophases at selected location. 1) Summer Oak bud burst – beginning of caterpillar season; 2) Summer Oak full foliage – end of caterpillar season; 3) Summer oak bud burst – Great Tit MLD; 4) beginning of caterpillar season – Great Tit MLD, 5) end of caterpillar season – Great Tit MLD; 6) beginning of caterpillar season – Collared Flycatcher MLD; 7) end of caterpillar season – Collared Flycatcher MLD; 8) Great Tit MLD – Collared Flycatcher MLD. CONCLUSION

- results for sum of maximum daily temperatures above 8°C and for onset of phenological stages of all the species studied exceeded the 95% and 99% confidence levels for frequencies above 20 years - the mutual timing of the phenological stages in simplified trophic chain do not be affected by shifting of phenophases. Phenophases are separating or overlaying in some years but there is no disruption of the food chain. There has been a consistent shift towards earlier onset of individual phenophases over the last 47 years - Summer Oak bud bursting has shifted on average by 7.9 days and full foliage by 8.9 days, MLD has advanced on average by 7.8 days for the Great Tit and by 8.7 days for Collared Flycatcher and the activity of caterpillars has advanced by 8.7 days

Acknowledgements: The study was supported by the project Grant Agency of the Czech Republic (no. 521/08/1682), Research plan No. MSM6215648905 “Biological and technological aspects of sustainability of controlled ecosystems and their adaptability to climate change” and KONTAKT OC 187 (linked to COST 734).