Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd 14 September 2011 ...research.cyberquote.com.hk/page/htm/kc/share_companyrpt/support/RMF... · (MICA (P) 027/12/2010) Ref No: RM2011_0180 Phillip

(MICA (P) 027/12/2010) Ref No: RM2011_0180

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd 14 September 2011

Singapore

� The STI gave up an early advance to close 0.5% down to 2729. We are below the 200 week MA. Momentum on weekly charts are bearish. Meanwhile US and European stocks advanced 0.9% (S&P500) and 2% (Stoxx50) respectively as French banks dismissed concern about funding issues and Angela Merkel expressed confidence that Greece will meet fiscal targets for their next bailout. Credit markets are still sceptical selling PIGS debt, sending Greek yields to 21.4% and Italian yields to 5.66%.

� The big elephant in the room is now Italy, as borrowing costs soar, re-financing old debt becomes more and more difficult. Asking the Chinese to buy their debt to keep yields low smacks of desperation. With Italian debt running into trillions, a default by Italy would be catastrophic. As we have said, the global recovery is a moot point now, and clients should think twice about going long on stocks, as even defensive stocks in Singapore still have a habit of declining with the market only less so. Clients in cash should stay in cash, clients in risk assets should de-risk as much as possible for better opportunities ahead.

Close +/- % +/-FSSTI 2729.37 -14.21 -0.52P/E (x) 7.69P/Bv (x) 1.32

4.02Dividend Yield

STRAITS TIMES INDEX

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

9/13 12/13 3/13 6/13 9/13

Source: Bloomberg

Hong Kong � Local Stocks slumped sharply due to lingering concerns of European sovereign

debt crisis spreading and local investors fear on Greek will default finally. The HSI and HSCEI slumped 836.09 points and 501.03 points to 19030.54 and 9967.86 respectively. Market volume reached 57.73 billion only.

� For near term, we expect the HSI would demonstrate choppy trend, we reiterate a cautious bullish view on HSI if the index will consolidate over 19,300 today, investors are suggested to buy gold ETF to hedge their position. However, technically if the HSI penetrated below 19,000,a precipitous collapse is highly possible.

� We peg resistance for the HSI at 19500 and support 18800.

Close +/- % +/-HSI INDEX 19030.54 -836.09 -4.21P/E (x) 8.82P/Bv (x) 1.37

3.55Dividend Yield

HANG SENG INDEX

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

26000

9/13 12/13 3/13 6/13 9/13

Source: Bloomberg

Regional Market Focus 14 September 2011

2

Thailand � Thai stocks opened in positive territory but reversed course to trade sharply

lower in the afternoon session on Tue as fears of Europe’s debt crisis returned to haunt the market. Even though the cabinet approved tax rebates for first-time car buyers as expected, the move only helped support some related stocks. Trading volume was light. Foreign investors continued to be net sellers of Thai equities for a third day worth Bt1,592.80m on Tue.

� Cautious movement is expected for the overall market as all eyes are focused on the progress of EU debt problem. Although sentiment remains negative, we foresee short-term buyback possibility during the intraday amid hopes from 1) meetings among leaders from France, Germany and Greece on Wed, 2) US FOMC meeting next week (Sep 20-21), as well as 3) preliminary talks among BRICS countries to buy Euro bonds.

� For short-term strategy, we advise investors to gradually book partial profits on rebound and turn to selective trading within the resistance-support. Nonetheless, equity holding should be capped at between 25% to 50%.

� Resistance on the main index is pegged at 1036-1040 and support at 1015-1000 today.

Close +/- % +/-SET INDEX 1031.67 -9.16 -0.88P/E (x) 12.55P/Bv (x) 1.93

4.03Dividend Yield

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX

800

900

1000

1100

1200

9/13 12/13 3/13 6/13 9/13

Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia

� The Indonesian market slid yesterday. Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) fell 21.336 points (-0.55%) to close at 3,874.783. JCI started the day on a positive territory. The index mostly stayed green during the first half of the day. During the day, JCI made an intra-day low of 3,855.036 and intra-day high of 3,929.549

� The upward movement was mainly led by gains in Agricultural sector and Consumer Goods sector. This index gain was limited by losses in all other sectors at the end of the trading day. The breadth of the market was negative with 105 shares advancing as compared to 114 that declined. The total turnover on regular market was recorded at IDR 3.34 trillion (USD 386.8 million).

� As for today, we estimate support-resistance level of 3,840-3,874.783. Close +/- % +/-

JCI Index 3874.78 -21.34 -0.55P/E (x) 16.99P/Bv (x) 2.95

2.10Dividend Yield

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

9/13 12/13 3/13 6/13 9/13

Source: Bloomberg

Sri Lanka � Both indices experienced declines in their values and ASPI closed at 6,930.04

with a dip of 37.58 points while MPI reduced by marginal 0.63 points and closed the day at 6,270.41.Total Market turnover was Rs 3Bn and was a 33.5% increase against previous day. Lanka Milk Foods PLC (LMF) was the highest contributor providing Rs. 590Mn recording 11 crossings. In addition, Muller and Phipps PLC (MULL) and Tess Agro PLC (TESS) also provided noticeable subscriptions with Rs. 277Mn and Rs. 171Mn respectively. Reported Net Foriegn outflow was Rs. 340Mn.

� 297.3Mn shares were traded today, 55% increase compared with previous day. More liquid shares were highly attractive among retailers and MULL was the counter with highest number of traded shares of 74.8Mn.

� Negative contributors highly outnumbered the positive counters with 153:54 and Sathosa Motors (SMOT) was the top gainers today, in contrast Ascot Holdings (ASCO) became the top loser.

Close +/- % +/-CSEALL Index 6930.04 -37.58 -0.54P/E (x) 15.85P/Bv (x) 2.59

1.56Dividend Yield

SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

9/13 12/13 3/13 6/13 9/13

Source: Bloomberg


3

Singapore Technical Analysis – Banking Sector � Banking stocks are near support and given weakness in macroecnomic environment and possible deterioration in banks’ fundamentals,

we believe the support will break and bank stocks are likely to become prime shorting targets. � Both DBS and OCBC are at their second support while UOB is at its first. � Any rebound at this support is likely to be short lived and should be accompanied by favourable candlesticks.

Hong Kong China Pacific Insurance Company (2601.HK) - Better-than-expected profit growth Recommendation: Buy Previous close: $29.25 Fair Value: $34

� According to interim results of China Pacific Life Insurance Company (CPIC or the Company), the premium income grew stably and its

P&C insurance incomes realized the strong growth due to the decrease of combined ratio, the Company’s net profit increased significantly.

� By the end of June 2011, CPIC’s accumulative gross premium income increased by 14.21% yoy to RMB86.875 billion and the accumulative net premium income rose approximately 16% to RMB79.569 billion, equivalent to EPS of RMB0.68.

� Additionally, the Company’s investment expanded steadily. In 1H2011, total investment income achieved RMB10.828 billion, increased largely by 16.9% yoy. During the period, the Company made an effort to increase the investments in fixed-income assets and reduced equity investments.

� In all, CPIC’s business had a stable development and the asset scale increased consistently. The current valuation level was reasonable. Due to the SOTP (sum of the parts valuation) method we reduce its 12-month target price to HK$34.00 under the situation that current price dropping largely, which is about 16% premium over the current price. We still maintained CPIC on “buy” rating.

Thailand Sino-Thai Engineering and Construction – Company Update Recommendation: BUY Previous close: Bt11.30 Fair value: Bt14

� We believe full-year order book target of Bt42b for newly awarded projects is likely to be met for STEC amid a chance of new contract wins from the new government’s infrastructure projects.

� The daily minimum wage hike could cut into margins but revenue growth would be a key earnings driver for STEC this year and next. � We maintain a ‘BUY’ stance on STEC with a price target of Bt14/share as a new round of bidding for mass transit projects by the end of

this year would present a trading catalyst.


4

Market News

US � Prices of goods imported into the U.S. fell in August for the second time in three months as the cost of oil and food dropped while autos

stabilized. The 0.4 percent decline in the import-price index followed a 0.3 percent increase in July, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists projected a 0.8 percent decrease, according to the median of 52 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Prices excluding fuel rose 0.2 percent. Slower growth in Europe and emerging economies like China, together with less U.S. demand, may restrain the cost of goods from abroad. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said “transitory” influences that had pushed up some prices will wane, and that the central bank had tools to spur growth if necessary. (Source: Bloomberg)

� The U.S. government’s budget deficit widened in August, primarily reflecting a calendar- related jump in spending compared with the same month last year. The gap climbed to $134.2 billion last month, exceeding the August 2010 shortfall of $90.5 billion, according to the Treasury Department’s monthly budget statement issued in Washington. For the fiscal year to date, the deficit increased to $1.23 trillion, less than at the same point in 2010. (Source: Bloomberg)

� Confidence among U.S. small businesses dropped to a 13-month low in August as fewer companies projected better economic conditions and improving sales, a private survey found. The National Federation of Independent Business’s optimism index decreased to 88.1, the weakest reading since July 2010 and the sixth-consecutive decline, from 89.9 in July. The number of small-business owners saying they expected the economy will improve six months from now fell to the lowest level since 1980. (Source: Bloomberg)

Singapore

� The residential market here will not see a correction in 2014 and 2015 even though a sizeable amount of new homes is due to be completed over those two years, argued Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) in a new white paper. 'Demand for housing is likely to remain fairly stable and support the injection of new stock over the next few years,' said JLL's South-east Asia research head Chua Yang Liang, who presented the paper yesterday. JLL's view differs from most analysts' prediction that Singapore is set to face a housing glut from 2013 to 2015. According to JLL, an average of about 50,000 HDB flats and private homes will be ready each year in 2014 and 2015. This is equivalent to 2.5 times the average yearly stock completed since 2001. (Source: BT Online)

� The more cautious bidding mood among developers for residential land at state tenders that began last month has spread to the industrial market. Yesterday, a 60-year leasehold industrial plot at Woodlands Avenue 12 saw a top bid from OKH Development of about $71.84 million or $142 per square foot per plot ratio, or 6.6 per cent lower than the $152 psf ppr that OKH had paid for the next-door plot at a tender in June this year. And yesterday's tender drew just four bids, a significant drop from nine bids for the June tender. 'Prior to this, we had been seeing industrial sites being sold at higher prices than nearby plots transacted earlier. So today's tender result could be a turning point,' said Colliers International director (industrial) Tan Boon Leong. (Source: BT Online)

Greater China Region

� China’s stocks fell, dragging the benchmark index to a one-week low, on concern the government may intensify policy tightening after imports jumped to a record and new lending increased. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (601398) Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp. (939) declined after the Beijing News reported the central bank sold additional bills to major lenders, a step to drain liquidity from the banking system. Among commodity companies, Jiangxi Copper Co. and Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. retreated at least 1.7 percent. BYD Co., the automaker part- owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., tumbled to a record low on a bond-sale plan. (Source: Bloomberg)

� The Shanghai gauge has slumped 12 percent this year as the central bank raised interest rates five times and ordered lenders to set aside more cash as deposit reserves 12 times since the start of 2010 to contain inflation. The stock gauge is valued at 11.4 times estimated profit, the lowest on record according to daily data compiled by Bloomberg dating back to January 2006. A spokesman for Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti declined to comment on possible talks on Chinese investments in Italy. News of the Chinese interest comes on the eve of a 7 billion-euro ($9.6 billion) bond sale. (Source: bloomberg)

Thailand � Council of State secretary-general said DSI’s acceptance of NBTC selection process as a special case does not prohibit PM Yingluck

Shinawatra’s submission of the list of 11 National Broadcasting and Telecommunication commissioners-elect to HM the King for royal endorsement. (+ ADVANC, DTAC, TRUE) (Source: Bisnews)

� The cabinet yesterday approved an excise tax deduction for first-time car buyers as proposed by the Finance Ministry, deputy government spokesman Chalitrat Chantharubeksa said. The scheme, which will take effect from Oct 1, 2011 until Dec 31, 2012 is expected to help grow the auto industry and drive auto sales up by 500,000 units in 2012. According to the Transport Department, car buyers before 2006 may also be eligible for the scheme as there were no databases kept. (+ SAT, AH) (Source: Matichon)

� PTTCH plans to buy stake of bio plastic maker in US. Meanwhile, the new merged co, PTTGC, is expected to start trading on Oct 21. (According to the swap ratio, PTTCH remains at an advantage to PTTAR). (Source : Than Hoon)

� Foreign investors continued to be net sellers of Thai equities for a third day worth Bt1,592.80m on Tue. (Source: Bisnews) � The cabinet approved an expenditure budget of Bt2.33 trillion for fiscal year 2012, Finance Minister Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala said

on Tue. Under the projection, government revenue would be about Bt1.98 trillion and the budget deficit would be Bt350 billion. Of the total Bt2.33 trillion planned expenditure, Bt1.839 trillion would be for regular expenses, Bt384 billion for investment, Bt54 billion for repayments to the treasury reserve, and Bt51 billion for loan principal repayments. (Source: Bangkok Post)


5

Indonesia � Indonesia plans to renegotiate its trade deal with China this December in the wake of the country’s trade deficits with China. Industries in

Indonesia have been complaining of China’s alleged dumping practice, which they have not been able to prove due to lack of evidence. Data from the Ministry of Trade reveal that Indonesia has been suffering trade deficits with China since 2008, while in 2006 and 2007 Indonesia still enjoyed trade surplus with China at USD 1.71 billion and USD 1.12 billion, respectively. (Source: Indonesia Finance Today)

� Indonesian government expects to gradually attract investment from Russia amounted to USD 1 billion in coming years. The current value of Russian investment into Indonesia is still quite small, which is below USD 50 million. Some of the government targeted investment sectors are machinery, heavy equipment and infrastructure. Authorized data of BKPM during the period of 2000-2010 showed the total value of Russia's investment in Indonesia was only USD 0.56 million. In the first half of 2011, the investment value of this country had improved although it was still relatively small, to USD 1.15 million. (Source: Bisnis Indonesia)

� Coal production in Indonesia is set to surge next year as coal miners bolster their businesses and several new mines commence production. Indonesia’s production of thermal and coking coal is forecast to hit 380 million tons in 2012, up 5.5 percent on this year’s estimate. The Energy Ministry’s forecast for coal production next year is 332 million tons, but that estimate does not include the output of smaller mining companies. China’s demand for coal is expected to double in the next five years to 6 billion tons. Meanwhile, coal is used in Indonesia’s power plants to make up for insufficient supplies of natural gas, which is locally produced in large amounts but most of which is exported. Indonesia exports the majority of its coal to China, India and Japan. (Source: Jakarta Globe)

Sri Lanka � Sri Lanka’s People Leasing Company (PLC), a fully owned subsidiary of state owned banking giant People’s Bank, is bracing for an

Initial Public Offering (IPO), which is going to be the second largest IPO so far in the Colombo bourse. Sources close to the upcoming PLC IPO, confirmed that the firm last week made an application to the Colombo Stock Exchange in this regard and is planning to come up with the share issue by the end of October. PLC functions as group of companies with six subsidiaries which include People’s Leasing Finance PLC, People’s Microfinance Ltd, People’s Insurance Ltd, People’s Leasing Fleet Management Ltd, People’s Leasing Property Development Ltd and People’s Leasing Havelock Properties Ltd. (Source: www.Daily Mirror.lk)

� The Sri Lankan government plans to set up a listed company to manage 'rest houses', state-owned budget hotels often sited in scenic locations, according to its new tourism strategy. It explained it was considering "greater involvement" by government agencies in investing in and managing the rest houses, which are currently leased to private operators now. “A government company with some shares issued to the public will be formed to manage these properties," the tourism strategy by Sri Lanka Tourism. (Source: www.LBO.lk)

� Credit boom to private sector continues unabated with the amount extended in the first half topping Rs. 200 billion and the end June cumulative figure surpassing the Rs. 1.7 trillion mark.The estimated Rs. 209 billion lent in 2011 first half nearly three times the amount disbursed between end December 2009 and June 2010 worth Rs. 73 billion. In comparison to end the 2010 figure of Rs. 1,495 billion; the June 2011 amount reflects a 14% increase whilst year on year (YoY), the growth was a high 34.4%. Since early this year YoY percentage growth has been at high 30s after credit to private sector slumped by nearly 6% in 2009 and picked up to 25% in 2010. (Source: Daily FT)


6

Dollar Index 77.06 +0.00%

70

75

80

85

90

9/1

4/1

0

10/1

4/1

0

11/1

4/1

0

12/1

4/1

0

1/1

4/1

1

2/1

4/1

1

3/1

4/1

1

4/1

4/1

1

5/1

4/1

1

6/1

4/1

1

7/1

4/1

1

8/1

4/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

Gold 1833.60 +0.01%

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

9/1

4/1

0

10/1

4/1

0

11/1

4/1

0

12/1

4/1

0

1/1

4/1

1

2/1

4/1

1

3/1

4/1

1

4/1

4/1

1

5/1

4/1

1

6/1

4/1

1

7/1

4/1

1

8/1

4/1

1

9/1

4/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

Crude oil 90.21 +2.29%

70

80

90

100

110

120

9/1

4/1

0

10/1

4/1

0

11/1

4/1

0

12/1

4/1

0

1/1

4/1

1

2/1

4/1

1

3/1

4/1

1

4/1

4/1

1

5/1

4/1

1

6/1

4/1

1

7/1

4/1

1

8/1

4/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

US Treasury 10yr Yield 1.9906 +2.21%

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

9/1

4/1

0

10/1

4/1

0

11/1

4/1

0

12/1

4/1

0

1/1

4/1

1

2/1

4/1

1

3/1

4/1

1

4/1

4/1

1

5/1

4/1

1

6/1

4/1

1

7/1

4/1

1

8/1

4/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

DJI 11061.12 +0.40%

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

9/1

4/1

0

10/1

4/1

0

11/1

4/1

0

12/1

4/1

0

1/1

4/1

1

2/1

4/1

1

3/1

4/1

1

4/1

4/1

1

5/1

4/1

1

6/1

4/1

1

7/1

4/1

1

8/1

4/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

S&P 500 INDEX 1172.87 +0.91%

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

9/1

4/1

0

10/1

4/1

0

11/1

4/1

0

12/1

4/1

0

1/1

4/1

1

2/1

4/1

1

3/1

4/1

1

4/1

4/1

1

5/1

4/1

1

6/1

4/1

1

7/1

4/1

1

8/1

4/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

SHCOMP 2497.75 -1.06%

2300

2550

2800

3050

3300

9/1

4/1

0

10/1

4/1

0

11/1

4/1

0

12/1

4/1

0

1/1

4/1

1

2/1

4/1

1

3/1

4/1

1

4/1

4/1

1

5/1

4/1

1

6/1

4/1

1

7/1

4/1

1

8/1

4/1

1

Source: Bloomberg


7

Major World Indices

Indices % Chg Chg Last Indices % Chg Chg Last

TEL AVIV 100 INDEX +2.30 +20.69 918.67 ALL ORDINARIES INDX +0.81 +33.30 4158.40

HANG SENG INDEX -4.21 -836.09 19030.54 S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX +0.47 +56.65 12205.48

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX -0.55 -21.34 3874.78 FTSE 100 INDEX +0.87 +44.63 5174.25

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI +0.12 +1.74 1448.00 CAC 40 INDEX +1.41 +40.12 2894.93

KOSPI INDEX -1.83 -33.71 1812.93 DAX INDEX +1.85 +94.03 5166.36

NIKKEI 225 +0.95 +80.88 8616.55 DOW JONES INDUS. AVG +0.40 +44.73 11105.85

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX -0.88 -9.16 1031.67 S&P 500 INDEX +0.91 +10.60 1172.87

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE -1.06 -26.45 2471.31 NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX +1.49 +37.06 2532.15

TAIWAN TAIEX INDEX -2.88 -219.20 7391.37

NYSE Arca Gold BUGS +0.60 +3.68 613.70

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Top Value & Volume

Singapore

Top 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume

GENTING SINGAPOR

1.65 +0.61 +0.010 182,309,100 GENTING SINGAPORE PLC

1.65 +0.61 +0.010 109,025,000

SEMBCORP MARINE

3.70 +1.37 +0.050 76,217,610 NOBLE GROUP LTD 1.51 +0.33 +0.005 41,175,000

DBS GROUP HLDGS

12.20 -1.21 -0.150 71,864,420 SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD

0.47 +0.00 +0.000 35,836,000

SINGAP TELECOMM

3.04 +0.00 +0.000 63,552,000 GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD

0.65 -0.76 -0.005 35,499,000

NOBLE GROUP LTD

1.51 +0.33 +0.005 63,088,310 SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD

3.04 +0.00 +0.000 20,723,000

KEPPEL CORP LTD

8.52 +0.24 +0.020 49,442,560 SEMBCORP MARINE LTD

3.70 +1.37 +0.050 20,274,000

UNITED OVERSEAS

17.17 -0.46 -0.080 48,143,020 YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING

1.02 +0.00 +0.000 18,925,000

OCBC BANK 8.24 -0.24 -0.020 31,859,910 GENTING HONG KONG LTD

0.33 -1.52 -0.005 18,233,000

CAPITALAND LTD 2.50 -0.40 -0.010 28,451,280 YANLORD LAND GROUP LTD

0.85 +0.00 +0.000 17,308,000

SEMBCORP INDUS 3.73 -1.32 -0.050 24,431,760 THE STYLE MERCHANTS LTD

0.00 +50.00 +0.001 16,125,000


Hong Kong


HSBC HLDGS PLC 61.35 -5.54 -3.60 2,260,116,000 BANK OF CHINA-H 2.90 -3.65 -0.11 547,172,806

IND & COMM BK-H 4.69 -5.25 -0.26 1,903,099,000 IND & COMM BK-H 4.69 -5.25 -0.26 560,560,000

BANK OF CHINA-H 2.90 -3.65 -0.11 1,588,791,000 AGRICULTURAL-H 3.24 -5.81 -0.20 302,200,929

AIA GROUP LTD 24.70 -5.18 -1.35 1,444,597,000 CHINA CONST BA-H

5.47 -4.70 -0.27 208,360,151

CHINA MOBILE 77.85 -2.01 -1.60 1,272,635,000 IMERCHANTS 0.01 +0.00 +0.00 114,525,000

CHINA CONST BA-H 5.47 -4.70 -0.27 1,149,130,000 GCL-POLY ENERGY

2.88 -6.49 -0.20 100,632,200

AGRICULTURAL-H 3.24 -5.81 -0.20 990,838,200 SIMSEN INTERNATI

0.02 -5.88 -0.00 99,700,000

CHINA OVERSEAS 14.30 -7.50 -1.16 903,518,000 CHINA NATL BDG-H

9.05 -11.27 -1.15 91,821,970

CHINA LIFE INS-H 18.04 -5.75 -1.10 847,162,600 CHINA SOLAR ENER

0.06 -22.08 -0.02 88,835,000

CHINA NATL BDG-H 9.05 -11.27 -1.15 843,253,700 CHINA PPT INV 0.01 -14.29 -0.00 84,948,705



8

Thailand


BANGKOK BANK PUB

148.50 -1.33 -2.00 1,086,903,000 ANGPAO ASSETS PC

0.60 -14.29 -0.10 734,497,500

PTT PCL 310.00 -1.27 -4.00 1,686,785,000 TMB BANK PCL 1.71 -2.29 -0.04 156,625,500

INDORAMA VENTURE

35.25 -2.08 -0.75 853,650,000 TRUE CORP PCL 3.92 -0.51 -0.02 107,943,100

SIAM CEMENT PCL 311.00 -0.32 -1.00 433,521,000 THAI YUAN METAL 0.35 -2.78 -0.01 42,817,600

ADVANCED INFO 123.00 +1.65 +2.00 1,447,197,000 JASMINE INTL PCL

2.20 -2.65 -0.06 124,693,200

KASIKORNBANK PCL

118.00 -2.07 -2.50 1,159,769,000 BTS GROUP HOLDIN

0.65 +0.00 +0.00 125,605,600

SIAM COMM BK PCL 112.50 -0.88 -1.00 668,240,000 NATURAL PARK PCL

0.02 +0.00 +0.00 80,901,500

PTT CHEMICAL PCL 124.50 -1.97 -2.50 841,410,000 BANGKOK LAND PCL

0.62 -1.59 -0.01 30,016,900

BANPU PUB CO LTD 622.00 -0.64 -4.00 826,660,000 KC PROPERTY PCL

0.98 -2.97 -0.03 17,663,300

THAI OIL PCL 65.00 +0.00 +0.00 467,460,000 IRPC PCL 4.60 -1.29 -0.06 35,932,700


Indonesia


BUMI RESOURCES 2725.00 1.87 50.00 123,083,300,000 ENERGI MEGA PERS 186.00 -0.53 -1.00 225,373,500

ASTRA INTERNATIO 69000.00 -0.58 -400.00 216,951,300,000 SENTUL CITY TBK 300.00 -3.23 -10.00 144,735,000

ADARO ENERGY TBK 1970.00 0.00 0.00 74,868,750,000 KAWASAN INDUS JA 186.00 -1.06 -2.00 160,847,000

BANK MANDIRI 6850.00 -0.72 -50.00 222,899,000,000 ALAM SUTERA REAL 420.00 0.00 0.00 115,047,500

BANK RAKYAT INDO 6400.00 -3.03 -200.00 448,908,200,000 BAKRIELAND DEV 140.00 0.72 1.00 122,179,500

INDOFOOD SUKSES 5700.00 0.00 0.00 122,398,800,000 BAKRIE & BROTHER 62.00 -1.59 -1.00 213,125,000

TELEKOMUNIKASI 7350.00 -0.68 -50.00 55,317,770,000 STAR PETROCHEM T 310.00 3.33 10.00 133,827,500

HARUM ENERGY 7900.00 -3.66 -300.00 65,438,700,000 AGIS TBK PT 143.00 8.33 11.00 275,920,500

INDO TAMBANGRAYA 44700.00 0.68 300.00 23,827,320,000 INDOPOLY 166.00 -0.60 -1.00 42,963,500

PERUSAHAAN GAS N 2800.00 0.00 0.00 107,360,400,000 BUMI RESOURCES 2725.00 1.87 50.00 44,902,000


Sri Lanka


TESS AGRO LTD 5.30 1.92 0.10 170,815,300 TESS AGRO LTD 5.30 1.92 0.10 31,183,000

ASCOT HOLDINGS 161.50 -9.42 -16.80 130,455,200 AMANA TAKAFUL 2.90 0.00 0.00 19,794,100

JOHN KEELLS HLDG 218.20 1.68 3.60 84,637,750 SMB LEASING - NV 0.80 0.00 0.00 9,823,000

UNITED MOTORS 169.50 -2.87 -5.00 12,918,880 PANASIAN POWER L 5.10 -5.56 -0.30 11,020,700

DIPPED PRODUCTS 122.60 -2.62 -3.30 6,028,530 MULLER & PHIPPS 3.30 10.00 0.30 74,792,700

HVA FOODS LTD 71.40 -1.79 -1.30 53,987,560 BLUE DIAMONDS JE 11.40 0.00 0.00 5,922,500

PANASIAN POWER L 5.10 -5.56 -0.30 57,657,800 FREE LANKA CAPIT 4.10 2.50 0.10 31,007,200

BLUE DIAMONDS JE 11.40 0.00 0.00 69,636,740 RENUKA AGRI FOOD 6.70 0.00 0.00 2,447,700

FINANCE CO PLC 40.10 -4.75 -2.00 7,281,140 SMB LEASING PLC 2.60 0.00 0.00 13,837,200

AMANA TAKAFUL 2.90 0.00 0.00 58,854,040 BROWNS INVESTMEN 5.40 0.00 0.00 3,408,100



9

Commodities & Currencies

Commodities % Chg Chg Last Currencies Price of FX to

S$ Price of FX to

US$

GOLD SPOT US$ / OZ +0.01 +0.13 1,833.60 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR 0.7809 1.0322

SILVER SPOT US$ / OZ +0.13 +0.05 40.99 CANADIAN DOLLAR 0.7977 0.9895

WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot Px +2.29 +2.02 90.21 EURO 0.5880 1.3710

BRITISH POUND 0.5095 1.5822 Source: Bloomberg

US DOLLAR 0.8060 1.0000

Commodities % Chg Chg Last CHINA RENMINBI 5.1580 6.3995

Malaysian Rubber Board Standard +0.24 +3.25 1383.00 HONG KONG DOLLAR 6.2894 7.8035

PALM OIL (RM$/METRIC TON) +0.13 +4.00 3123.50 JAPANESE YEN 61.9600 76.8700

Source: Bloomberg KOREAN WON 886.6146 1102.5000

Index % Chg Chg Last MALAYSIAN RINGGIT 2.4717 3.0665

DOLLAR INDEX SPOT +0.00 +0.00 77.06 THAI BAHT 24.3203 30.1900


US Treasury Yields

Maturity Today Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Months 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

6 Months 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05

2 Years 0.20 0.20 0.19 0.19

3 Years 0.35 0.33 0.32 0.32

5 Years 0.88 0.86 0.88 0.95

10 Years 1.99 1.95 1.98 2.25

30 Years 3.33 3.25 3.27 3.72

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 3 mths) 1.99

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 2 yrs) 1.79

Source: Data provided by ValuBond – http://www.valubond.com

Economic Announcement

US Singapore

Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior

9/14/11 Monthly Budget Statement

AUG -$132.0B -$90.5B 9/15/11 Unemployment Rate (sa) 2Q F 2.2% 2.1%

9/14/11 MBA Mortgage Applications

9-Sep - - -4.9% 9/15/11 Retail Sales Ex Auto (YoY) JUL 9.0% 10.4%

9/14/11 Producer Price Index (MoM)

AUG 0.0% 0.2% 9/15/11 Retail Sales (YoY) JUL 8.8% 10.9%

9/14/11 PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM)

AUG 0.2% 0.4% 9/15/11 Retail Sales (MoM) sa JUL 1.0% 1.6%

9/14/11 Producer Price Index (YoY)

AUG 6.5% 7.2% 9/16/11 Electronic Exports (YoY) AUG -14.9% -16.9%

9/14/11 PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY)

AUG 2.6% 2.5% 9/16/11 Non-oil Domestic Exports (YoY)

AUG -6.2% -2.8%

9/14/11 Advance Retail Sales AUG 0.2% 0.5% 9/16/11 Non-oil Domestic Exp SA (MoM)

AUG -0.9% -2.3%

9/14/11 Retail Sales Less Autos AUG 0.2% 0.5% 9/21/11 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A

21-Sep

- - 51000

9/14/11 Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas

AUG 0.3% 0.3% 9/21/11 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B

21-Sep

- - 63002

9/14/11 Business Inventories JUL 0.5% 0.3%

9/21/11 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E

21-Sep

- - 65589



10

Thailand Hong Kong


9/16/11 Foreign Reserves 9-Sep - - - - 9/15/11 Industrial Production (YoY)

2Q - - 3.5%

9/16/11 Forward Contracts 9-Sep - - - - 9/15/11 Producer Price (YoY) 2Q - - 8.2%

19-23 SEP

Total Car Sales AUG - - 72902 9/19/11 Composite Interest Rate AUG - - 0.31%

20-23 SEP

Customs Exports (YoY) AUG - - 38.3% 9/20/11 Unemployment Rate SA AUG - - 3.4%

20-23 SEP

Customs Imports (YoY) AUG - - 13.5% 9/22/11 Bal of Paymts - Current A/C

2Q - - $40.64B

20-23 SEP

Customs Trade Balance AUG - - $2798M 9/22/11 Bal of Paymts - Overall 2Q - - $18.69B

9/23/11 Foreign Reserves 16-Sep - - - - 9/22/11 CPI - Composite Index (YoY)

AUG - - 7.9%

9/23/11 Forward Contracts 16-Sep - - - - 9/27/11 Exports YoY% AUG - - 9.3%

28-29 SEP

Mfg. Production Index ISIC (YoY)

AUG - - -1.11 9/27/11 Imports YoY% AUG - - 10.2%

28-29 SEP

Mfg. Production Index ISIC (SA)

AUG - - 185.69 9/27/11 Trade Balance AUG - - -35.9B

28-29 SEP

Total Capacity Utilization ISIC

AUG - - 63.0 9/30/11 Money Supply M1 - in HK$ (YoY)

AUG - - 15.5%

9/30/11 Foreign Reserves 23-Sep - - - - 9/30/11 Money Supply M2 - in HK$ (YoY)

AUG - - 9.4%

9/30/11 Total Exports YOY% AUG - - 36.4% 9/30/11 Money Supply M3 - in HK$ (YoY)

AUG - - 9.3%

9/30/11 Forward Contracts 23-Sep - - - - 9/30/11 Govt Mthly Budget Surp/Def HK$

AUG - - 2.2B

9/30/11 Total Exports in US$ Million

AUG - - $21098M 10/3/11 Retail Sales - Value (YoY)

AUG - - 29.1%


Indonesia Sri Lanka


19-23 SEP

Total Local Auto Sales AUG - - 89056 15-25 SEP GDP (YoY) 2Q - - 7.9%

19-23 SEP

Total Motorcycle Sales AUG - - 737809 9/16/11 Repurchase Rate 16-Sep - - 7.000%

02-11 OCT

Consumer Confidence Index

SEP - - 110.6 9/16/11 Reverse Repo Rate 16-Sep - - 8.500%

10/3/11 Inflation (YoY) SEP - - 4.79% 23-30 SEP Exports YoY% JUL - - 31.6%

10/3/11 Inflation NSA (MoM) SEP - - 0.93% 23-30 SEP Imports YoY% JUL - - 49.6%

10/3/11 Core Inflation (YoY) SEP - - 5.15% 9/30/11 CPI Moving Average (YoY)

SEP - - 7.1%

10/3/11 Exports (YoY) AUG - - 39.5% 9/30/11 CPI (YoY) SEP - - 7.0%

10/3/11 Total Imports (YoY) AUG - - 27.2% 07-15 OCT Exports YoY% AUG - - - -

10/3/11 Total Trade Balance AUG - - $1363M 07-15 OCT Imports YoY% AUG - - - -

03-07 OCT

Danareksa Consumer Confidence

SEP - - 88.2 10/11/11 Repurchase Rate 11-Oct - - - -

03-07 OCT

Foreign Reserves SEP - - $124.64B 10/11/11 Reverse Repo Rate 11-Oct - - - -

05-09 OCT

Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln)

SEP - - 1035.32T 10/31/11 CPI Moving Average (YoY)

OCT - - - -

07-13 OCT

Money Supply - M1 (YoY)

AUG - - 18.5% 10/31/11 CPI (YoY) OCT - - - -

07-13 OCT

Money Supply - M2 (YoY)

AUG - - 15.6% 07-15 NOV Exports YoY% SEP - - - -

10/11/11 Bank Indonesia Reference Rate

11-Oct - - 6.75% 07-15 NOV Imports YoY% SEP - - - -


PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS

BUY >15% upside from the current price

HOLD Trade within ± 15% from the current price

SELL >15% downside from the current price

We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors

like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or

absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final

recommendation

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12

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