Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd 30 September 2011 ...research.cyberquote.com.hk/page/htm/kc/share_companyrpt/support… · Western markets rallied but closed off their highs

(MICA (P) 027/12/2010) Ref No: RM2011_0193

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd 30 September 2011

Singapore

� The STI closed flat in previous trading session, +6.96 points to 2,708.13. Oil related counters faltered while banking stocks took the lead in gains. Commodities stocks were generally lacklustre with the exception of Wilmar which showed mild gains. Despite positive news flow from the Western markets, we maintain our bearish stance. Previously, we said that the resistance will be 2,720, this is on the basis of using a support-turned resistance level. We further note that the STI is trading within a clear downward channel and although we could be generous and raise the resistance level to 2,750 at current trading levels, the existence of this downward channel has in fact intensified STI's bearish trend and we maintain this stance until a breakout occurs.

� On the US economic front, jobless claims fell 37,000 to 391,000, significantly

lower than anticipated but the decline may not be sustainable and claims could rise again over the next few weeks. The US GDP growth of 1.3% for the quarter was ahead of forecast. Commerce Department also reported after tax corporate profits to rise at 4.3% rate in 2Q11, the largest increase in a year. In Europe, bund yields fell and Euro appreciated as Germany voted in approval of positive reforms to EFSF. Western markets rallied but closed off their highs.

Close +/- % +/-FSSTI 2708.13 6.96 0.26P/E (x) 7.54P/Bv (x) 1.29

4.07Dividend Yield

STRAITS TIMES INDEX

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

9/29 12/29 3/29 6/29 9/29

Source: Bloomberg

Hong Kong

� Hong Kong Market Closed due to typhoon Nesat shuts.

Close +/- % +/-HSI INDEX 18011.06 -119.49 -0.66P/E (x) 8.30P/Bv (x) 1.29

3.81Dividend Yield

HANG SENG INDEX

17000

19000

21000

23000

25000

9/29 12/29 3/29 6/29 9/29

Source: Bloomberg

Regional Market Focus 30 September 2011

2

Thailand � Thai stocks swung between positive and negative territory in volatile session on

Thu while the market awaited developments on Greek debt solution. Defensive plays such as commerce, healthcare and telecom counters continued to trade with a positive bias. Foreign investors turned net sellers of Thai shares worth Bt453.84m on Thu.

� Sentiment in overseas markets improved as German approval of a beefed-up

euro zone crisis fund EFSF, and several better-than-expected US economic data. However, we believe it would take more time until we will see a sustainable recovery to help put the market back into an uptrend given the magnitude of the current crises in Europe and the US. For this reason, we believe any rebound for the time being would continue to be treated as a bounce in a downtrend. Overall we think the SET index would continue to face wild swings in a trading range of 900-950 today.

� In the near term, the strategy is still to buy on dips and sell on rises. � Today we peg resistance for the SET index at 938-950 and support at 900-867.

Close +/- % +/-SET INDEX 926.21 -5.39 -0.58P/E (x) 11.24P/Bv (x) 1.73

4.56Dividend Yield

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX

800

900

1000

1100

1200

9/29 12/29 3/29 6/29 9/29

Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia

� On yesterday’s market opening, the Jakarta Composite index (JCI) started the day on a negative territory, but in the second session JCI opened in the green zone until the end of the trading hour. The JCI closed at 3,573.178, or raise 24.012 points (+0.68%) after making an intra-day low of 3,466.626 and intra-day high of 3,549.184.

� Seven sectors rose as compared to two sectors that declined. Miscellaneous

Industry sector (+2.67%), Basic Industries Sector (+1.52%) and manufactured sector (+1.38) were the leading contributors to the market rise, while Mining sector (-0.93%) and Trade & Service sector (-0.02%) put pressure on the JCI yesterday. The breadth of the market was positive with 112 shares advanced as compared to 102 that negative. The total turnover on regular market was recorded at IDR 3.5 trillion (USD 395 million).

� For today, we are looking at JCI’s support and resistance levels at 3,400 and

3,650 respectively with a negative bias.

Close +/- % +/-JCI Index 3537.18 24.01 0.68P/E (x) 15.47P/Bv (x) 2.69

2.32Dividend Yield

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

9/29 12/29 3/29 6/29 9/29

Source: Bloomberg

Sri Lanka � The market reflected a buying sentiment throughout the day backed by the

interest of both the institutional and non-institutional investors. The All Share Price Index (ASPI) closed the day at 6,747.91 gaining 37.24 points where the liquid Milanka Price Index (MPI) was fluctuating a lot and failed to stable at a point above 6000; it marginally dropped 1.13 points and closed the day at 5,998.15 which is the lowest for the month-to-date. The market capitalization was LKR 2.42Tn.

� 232 counters traded during the day to record a turnover of LKR 2.8Bn which is

an increase of 86.37% comparing to yesterday’s turnover. A total of 96.5Mn shares changed hands during the trading day which is an increase of 73.22% comparing to yesterday’s volume of transacted shares. Price gainers outnumbered the price losers by 123:77. The foreign investors reflected a selling sentiment recording a net foreign outflow of LKR 134Mn.

Close +/- % +/-CSEALL Index 6747.91 37.24 0.55P/E (x) 15.25P/Bv (x) 2.47

1.57Dividend Yield

SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH

5500

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

9/29 12/29 3/29 6/29 9/29

Source: Bloomberg


3

Singapore

CapitaMalls Asia Ltd – Company update Recommendation: Buy Previous close: S$1.20 Fair value: S$1.76 � CMA to develop largest mall in Suzhou via 50:50 JV, costs Rmb6,740 mil � Strategically located in Suzhou Industrial Park CBD, with direct metro line access � Spent ~$2.3bil YTD, surpassed its target of $2bil investment in 2011 � Maintain Buy with fair value unchanged at S$1.76 Hong Kong

BYD (1211.HK) — Still halted in the trough Recommendation: Sell (Downgrade) Previous close: HK$13.36 Fair value: HK$11.3(-15.4%) � Due to disappointing auto business and slumped gross margin, BYD’s 2011H revenue and net profit declined 10.8% and 88.6% to

Rmb21.483 bn and 275 mn. EPS decreased by 88.68% to 0.12yuan from 2010H’s 1.06. � The worst time of BYD has not yet past. The Company’s Auto business is undergoing the period of rebuilding its brand image and sales

network. The solar business is also relatively remaining the low level. A bad FY2011 results is still possible as the profitability is unlikely to improve significantly in the second half of the year.

� We reduce our EPS forecast in FY2011 and FY2012 to RMB0.36 and RMB0.51 respectively, which is HK$0.44 and HK$0.63. We give 18 x P/E to 2012E EPS, which implies 12-month overall TP of HK$11.3, 15.4% lower than the last closing, a sell rating.

Thailand

Central Plaza Hotel – Company Update Recommendation: BUY Previous close: Bt8.10 Fair value: Bt12

� In 3Q11, hotel occupancy rate and food same store sales growth )SSSG (appear to have improved both YoY and QoQ. � Current hotel booking momentum remains strong. Asian tourist numbers are likely to grow at a healthy pace, offsetting a decline in

European clients. � We upgrade CENTEL shares to 'BUY' from 'HOLD.' Shares in CENTEL fell 32.5% from the year's closing high of Bt12, putting it at a

mere 11.7x 2012 P/E.


4

Market News

US � Consumer confidence slumped last week to the second-lowest level on record as Americans grew more concerned with their financial

situation and the buying climate worsened. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index dropped to minus 53 in the period ended Sept. 25 from minus 52.1 the prior week. Another report showed the economy grew at a faster pace in the second quarter than previously estimated. The comfort gauge showed the share of households saying it was a bad time to buy needed goods and services climbed to the highest level in three years, raising the risk that the biggest part of the economy will slow heading into the holiday shopping season. A lack of jobs and growing concern that policy makers will be unable to spur the recovery may keep sentiment depressed. (Source: Bloomberg)

� Claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell more than forecast last week as an atypical calendar alignment made it more difficult for the government to adjust the data for seasonal changes. Applications for jobless benefits dropped by 37,000 in the week ended Sept. 24 to 391,000, the fewest since April, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 420,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. An agency official said the data probably reflected a “slight mistiming” in the seasonal factors used to modify the figures. (Source: Bloomberg)

� The U.S. economy grew at a 1.3 percent pace in the second quarter, faster than estimated last month and helped by exports and spending on services. The revised rise in gross domestic product compares with a 1 percent gain previously calculated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was 1.2 percent, following a 0.4 percent increase in the first three months of the year. (Source: Bloomberg)

� The number of contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes fell in August, a sign that lower prices and borrowing costs are doing little to stoke demand. The 1.2 percent decrease in the index of pending home sales followed a 1.3 percent drop the previous month, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. Economists forecast a 2 percent drop, according to the median of 43 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. (source: Bloomberg)

Singapore

� The benchmark three- month Sibor or wholesale interest rate has risen steadily to 0.37 per cent since hitting a low of 0.34 on Sept 9 in reaction to the turmoil in financial markets and the retreat to the greenback. 'The three-month Sibor has edged up three basis points in recent days. This reflects the increased funding competition, especially for US dollars,' said OCBC economist Selena Ling. 'The Sibor move is not unique, but tracks Libor rates etc, and also parallels the general (albeit choppy) move higher by SOR,' she said. (Source: BT Online)

� Strong economic growth in the past year boosted incomes, and hence, the total income tax collected by the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS) for its financial year ended March 31, 2011. The taxman collected a total of $34.7 billion of tax revenue - 16.3 per cent more than the $29.9 billion the year before. The amount accounted for three-quarters of the government's operating revenue for the year, and 11.4 per cent of Singapore's gross domestic product (GDP). Corporate income tax continued to make up the bulk of the total tax collected, accounting for almost a third. The total corporate income tax collected for FY2011 was $10.7 billion - 11.8 per cent higher than a year ago - as companies' earnings were boosted by the better economic performance in 2010. (Source: BT Online)

� The local debt market has shrunk along with volatile markets, but fees earned by banks have fallen much faster as they undercut each other in order to hang on to the smaller pie. According to Thomson Reuters, Singapore-domiciled bond issuance declined 22 per cent this year to US$12.4 billion after last year's first three quarter record volume of US$15.9 billion. It also slipped 14.9 per cent this quarter to US$3.9 billion from US$4.5 billion in Q2 2011. It added that Singapore dollar-denominated bonds increased 15.4 per cent so far this quarter to S$5.5 billion from S$4.8 billion in Q2 2011. But total year-to-date issuance of S$15.2 billion is still 18.7 per cent below the same period last year. (Source: BT Online)

Greater China Region � SASAC issued a notice to regulate state-owned equity swap. SASAC announced yesterday a "central state-owned equity swap

announcement," which will regulate the swap of state-owned equity. The announcement emphasized that the reorganization of assets of state-owned enterprises should strengthen the core business. SASAC official pointed out that the previous state-owned equity swap came with associated files but no special notice. A special notice is intended to regulate the practice of state-owned equity swap.(Source: xinhua)

� The China Central bank found it was hard to change the pattern of net capital investment, even with the 11 successive bill auction. This week features the financial side of the monetary tightening, therefore, the central bank will continue in the open market with the pattern of net capital investment. This week will be the 11 successive bill auction. On Tuesday the central bank issued CNY2 billion 1 year treasury bills, with a increase of CNY1 billion over the previous period, the issue price was CNY96.54 with the seventh consecutive reference yield remained unchanged at 3.584% weekly and 3 consecutive weeks of 7 days repo came to an end.(Source: xinhua)

Thailand � Foreign investors turned net sellers of Thai equities worth Bt453.84m on Thu. (Source: Bisnews) � Most global investors predict China’s economic growth will slow gradually to less than 5% annually by 2016, a Bloomberg poll indicated.

(Source: Bloomberg) � PM Yingluck Shinawatra said on Thu that the government will not adjust its GDP growth projection of 4.5% for 2011 even though the

economy is being hard hit by the widespread flooding and global economic crises. (Source: Daily News) � The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee held a special meeting on Wed to review the 2012 inflation target, and a central bank

deputy governor said later that a new inflation target, to be submitted to the Finance Ministry early next month, will contain a "significant"


5

change in how it sets monetary policy under its inflation-targeting framework. At the next meeting of the MPC on Oct 19, the Bank of Thailand will consider the European debt crisis in its appraisal of inflation risk and the risk of global economic volatility. (Source: The Nation)

Indonesia � Indonesia is yet to utilize its surplus state-budget funds to buyback government securities (Surat Utang Negara/SUN) as it sees the

financial market condition in Indonesia is still considered normal. Ministry of Finance said that in September 2011, the government had bought state bonds amounting to IDR 2.76 trillion (USD 311.88 million) using buyback funds from the Finance Ministry’s Directorate General of Debt Management. In the last few weeks, the funds were used to manage investment portfolios and stabilize the financial market. The government is also conducting buybacks through dealing rooms with direct transactions reaching IDR 676 billion. Ministry of Finance explained that the buyback was conducted because foreign investors started pulling out their money from Indonesia, especially this month. Ministry of Finance said that the market condition is still normal, so there is no need to make bonds stabilization framework yet. (Source: Indonesia Finance Today)

� The Indonesian central government is coordinating with bank Indonesia (BI) and state owned enterprises (SOEs) to stabilize the national securities market. SOEs and BI have confirmed their readiness to buy back bonds when required. The buybacks will not be conducted in the global market but instead in the domestic market only, considering the funds availability and the national market stabilityBank Indonesia (BI) has lowered its forecast for foreign fund inflows to the country’s financial market as worldwide jitters over global economic uncertainties may turn investors to safer options. BI said capital inflows for portfolio investment in equity and debt markets might fall below USD 10 billion this year from the previous forecast of between USD 12 billion and USD 13 billion. That compares with USD 13.26 billion last year, according to BI data. So far this year, international funds have pumped IDR 8.5 trillion (USD 960.5 million) into the nation’s stock market and IDR 27.04 trillion into government debt papers after selling IDR 6 trillion in stocks and IDR 26.07 trillion in government bonds this month. Amid mounting worries of a global recession triggered by the Euro-zone and the United States’ crisis, investors prefer cash or safer instruments such as US dollars. (Source: Kontan)

Sri Lanka � Sri Lanka's Treasury bill yields edged up one basis points across maturities with the 3-month yield moving to 7.15 percent. The 6-month

yield moved one basis points to 7.23 percent and the 12-month yield moved to 7.31 percent. The debt office, which is a unit of the central bank announced that it sold 4.1 billion rupees in 3-month bills, 2.6 billion in 6-month bills and 3.2 billion in 12-month bills. In forex markets the spot dollar intervention rate was moved to 110.20 rupees, from 110.30 a day earlier and the market quotes were at 110.18/20. Dealers expect some inflows to reduce pressure on the spot market today. (Source: Daily Mirror)

� Sri Lanka had recorded a balance of payments surplus of 1,006 million US dollars by July 2011, with official foreign reserves climbing to 8,099 million US dollars, the Central Bank announced. Official reserves were equal to 5.7 months of imports by end July. The central bank said up to July exports rose 30.3 percent to 6,014 million dollars and imports rose 48.3 percent to 11,091 million dollars. Imports rose due to investment goods, and intermediate goods like oil. Sri Lanka's oil bill had risen 39.4 percent to 2,493 million dollars in the seven months to July from a year earlier. Services account showed a surplus of 461 million US dollars with workers’ remittances amounting to 2,922 million dollars. Foreign inflows to the state, including a billion dollar sovereign bond was 2,754 million US dollars and foreign direct investments were 413 million US dollars, creating a balance of payments surplus of 1,006 million US dollars. (Source: LBO)

� State-run Sri Lankan Airlines said it had lost 202 million rupees in the year to March 2011, down from 6.03 billion rupees a year earlier, helped by 3.6 billion rupees in one-off non-operating incomes. The firm earned 2.1 billion rupees from a sale and lease-back of an Airbus A330 aircraft. It also reported one billion rupees in income from a preference share issued by a subsidiary. Group revenues rose to 78.5 billion rupees from 63.3 billion rupees and expenses rose from 61 billion rupees to 71.9 billion rupees allowing gross margins to improve to 6.5 billion rupees from 2.3 billion a year earlier including its catering unit. Without catering, gross margins improved to 3.9 billion rupees from 319 million rupees. (Source: LBO)


6

Dollar Index 77.92 -0.23%

70

75

80

85

9/3

0/1

0

10/3

0/1

0

11/3

0/1

0

12/3

0/1

0

1/3

0/1

1

2/2

8/1

1

3/3

0/1

1

4/3

0/1

1

5/3

0/1

1

6/3

0/1

1

7/3

0/1

1

8/3

0/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

Gold 1614.40 +0.45%

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

9/3

0/1

0

10/3

0/1

0

11/3

0/1

0

12/3

0/1

0

1/3

0/1

1

2/2

8/1

1

3/3

0/1

1

4/3

0/1

1

5/3

0/1

1

6/3

0/1

1

7/3

0/1

1

8/3

0/1

1

9/3

0/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

Crude oil 82.14 +1.15%

70

80

90

100

110

120

9/3

0/1

0

10/3

0/1

0

11/3

0/1

0

12/3

0/1

0

1/3

0/1

1

2/2

8/1

1

3/3

0/1

1

4/3

0/1

1

5/3

0/1

1

6/3

0/1

1

7/3

0/1

1

8/3

0/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

US Treasury 10yr Yield 1.9962 +0.83%

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

9/3

0/1

0

10/3

0/1

0

11/3

0/1

0

12/3

0/1

0

1/3

0/1

1

2/2

8/1

1

3/3

0/1

1

4/3

0/1

1

5/3

0/1

1

6/3

0/1

1

7/3

0/1

1

8/3

0/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

DJI 11153.98 +1.30%

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

9/3

0/1

0

10/3

0/1

0

11/3

0/1

0

12/3

0/1

0

1/3

0/1

1

2/2

8/1

1

3/3

0/1

1

4/3

0/1

1

5/3

0/1

1

6/3

0/1

1

7/3

0/1

1

8/3

0/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

S&P 500 INDEX 1160.4 +0.81%

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

9/3

0/1

0

10/3

0/1

0

11/3

0/1

0

12/3

0/1

0

1/3

0/1

1

2/2

8/1

1

3/3

0/1

1

4/3

0/1

1

5/3

0/1

1

6/3

0/1

1

7/3

0/1

1

8/3

0/1

1

Source: Bloomberg

SHCOMP 2392.06 -1.12%

2300

2550

2800

3050

3300

9/3

0/1

0

10/3

0/1

0

11/3

0/1

0

12/3

0/1

0

1/3

0/1

1

2/2

8/1

1

3/3

0/1

1

4/3

0/1

1

5/3

0/1

1

6/3

0/1

1

7/3

0/1

1

8/3

0/1

1

Source: Bloomberg


7

Major World Indices

Indices % Chg Chg Last Indices % Chg Chg Last

TEL AVIV 100 INDEX +1.59 +15.22 969.77 ALL ORDINARIES INDX -0.73 -29.80 4067.90

HANG SENG INDEX -0.66 -119.49 18011.06 S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX +0.87 +100.45 11686.32

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX +0.68 +24.01 3537.18 FTSE 100 INDEX -0.40 -20.79 5196.84

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI +1.16 +15.91 1387.46 CAC 40 INDEX +1.07 +32.03 3027.65

KOSPI INDEX +2.68 +46.20 1769.29 DAX INDEX +1.10 +61.16 5639.58

NIKKEI 225 +0.99 +85.58 8701.23 DOW JONES INDUS. AVG +1.30 +143.08 11153.98

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX -0.58 -5.39 926.21 S&P 500 INDEX +0.81 +9.34 1160.40

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE -1.12 -26.72 2365.34 NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX -0.43 -10.82 2480.76

TAIWAN TAIEX INDEX +0.50 +35.63 7182.61 NYSE Arca Gold BUGS +0.73 +3.82 523.91

BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX +1.53 +252.05 16698.07

SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH +0.55 +37.24 6747.91

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Top Value & Volume

Singapore

Top 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume

KEPPEL CORP LTD

7.94 -1.61 -0.130 79,925,040 GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD

0.63 -0.79 -0.005 105,014,000

GOLDEN AGRI-RESO

0.63 -0.79 -0.005 63,570,200 GENTING SINGAPORE PLC

1.60 -0.31 -0.005 37,907,000

SINGAP TELECOMM

3.17 +1.28 +0.040 61,384,150 YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING

0.93 -3.13 -0.030 32,092,000

GENTING SINGAPOR

1.60 -0.31 -0.005 60,621,300 NOBLE GROUP LTD 1.41 +0.00 +0.000 31,310,000

NOBLE GROUP LTD

1.41 +0.00 +0.000 43,523,740 SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD

0.43 +1.19 +0.005 21,965,000

DBS GROUP HLDGS

12.00 -0.25 -0.030 38,702,970 NEXT-GENERATION SATELLITE CO

0.02 -11.76 -0.002 20,813,000

YANGZIJIANG SHIP

0.93 -3.13 -0.030 30,074,170 SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD

3.17 +1.28 +0.040 19,647,000

OCBC BANK 8.28 +0.61 +0.050 27,819,380 SWING MEDIA TECHNOLOGY GROUP

0.14 +6.67 +0.009 18,135,000

UNITED OVERSEAS

17.21 +0.82 +0.140 25,500,990 NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES LTD

1.14 +4.61 +0.050 17,444,000

SEMBCORP MARINE

3.35 -1.47 -0.050 23,694,250 STX OSV HOLDINGS LTD

1.01 -2.88 -0.030 15,217,000


Hong Kong


IND & COMM BK-H 4.04 -3.81 -0.16 2,096,457,000 BANK OF CHINA-H 2.57 -3.02 -0.08 574,180,527

HSBC HLDGS PLC 62.05 +0.57 +0.35 2,051,749,000 FREEMAN FINANCIA

0.06 +57.89 +0.02 560,560,000

CNOOC LTD 13.30 +3.91 +0.50 1,974,035,000 IND & COMM BK-H 4.04 -3.81 -0.16 514,202,662

TENCENT HOLDINGS

165.40 +3.38 +5.40 1,911,623,000 SIMSEN INTERNATI

0.02 +15.38 +0.00 343,100,000

CHINA MOBILE 77.00 -0.84 -0.65 1,776,039,000 APOLLO SOLAR ENE

0.28 +9.80 +0.03 333,190,000

CHINA CONST BA-H 5.08 -2.31 -0.12 1,616,069,000 CHINA CONST BA-H

5.08 -2.31 -0.12 317,800,082

BANK OF CHINA-H 2.57 -3.02 -0.08 1,468,929,000 GOME ELECTRICAL

2.34 -11.36 -0.30 289,599,000

PETROCHINA CO-H 9.72 +2.10 +0.20 1,174,919,000 AGRICULTURAL-H 2.82 -1.74 -0.05 207,716,930

CHINA LIFE INS-H 18.58 +0.65 +0.12 1,084,591,000 ACTIVE GROUP HLD

1.19 -0.83 -0.01 180,818,000

CHINA NATL BDG-H 7.59 +3.41 +0.25 1,037,161,000 CNOOC LTD 13.30 +3.91 +0.50 149,312,747



8

Thailand


PTT PCL 263.00 -2.95 -8.00 3,608,352,000 JASMINE INTL PCL

1.67 +3.09 +0.05 658,309,600

PTT CHEMICAL PCL 99.75 -0.25 -0.25 977,067,000 TMB BANK PCL 1.47 -1.34 -0.02 140,952,900

SIAM CEMENT PCL 267.00 -1.48 -4.00 1,348,744,000 TRUE CORP PCL 3.26 -3.55 -0.12 189,344,800

THAI OIL PCL 51.75 +0.00 +0.00 794,656,000 NATURAL PARK PCL

0.02 +0.00 +0.00 164,867,100

BANPU PUB CO LTD 544.00 -3.89 -22.00 1,545,954,000 KARMARTS PCL 1.86 -2.11 -0.04 78,595,600

KRUNG THAI BANK 15.90 +0.63 +0.10 627,484,000 IRPC PCL 3.56 -2.20 -0.08 106,600,200

BANGKOK BANK PUB

145.00 +0.00 +0.00 1,034,422,000 BTS GROUP HOLDIN

0.60 +0.00 +0.00 42,803,300

ADVANCED INFO 126.00 +3.28 +4.00 1,293,756,000 NEP REALTY & IND

0.62 +0.00 +0.00 33,876,000

JASMINE INTL PCL 1.67 +3.09 +0.05 1,089,351,000 INTL ENGINEERING

0.02 +0.00 +0.00 14,783,700

PTT AROMATICS 25.00 -0.99 -0.25 499,497,000 UNION PETROCHEMI

1.72 -0.58 -0.01 18,276,400


Indonesia


BANK RAKYAT INDO 5900.00 0.00 0.00 398,934,800,000 DARMA HENWA 75.00 -5.06 -4.00 218,920,500

ASTRA INTERNATIO 64050.00 2.97 1850.00 364,697,000,000 ENERGI MEGA PERS 137.00 -2.14 -3.00 213,183,000

BUMI RESOURCES 1930.00 -5.85 -120.00 356,903,100,000 BANK BUKOPIN 570.00 5.56 30.00 209,525,500

BANK MANDIRI 6450.00 4.03 250.00 311,511,500,000 BUMI RESOURCES 1930.00 -5.85 -120.00 183,535,000

ADARO ENERGY TBK 1730.00 2.37 40.00 160,023,600,000 BAKRIE & BROTHER 52.00 0.00 0.00 169,783,000

INDOFOOD SUKSES 4850.00 2.65 125.00 138,582,900,000 BAKRIELAND DEV 112.00 -2.61 -3.00 141,872,500

UNITED TRACTORS 21950.00 0.00 0.00 119,984,800,000 ADARO ENERGY TBK 1730.00 2.37 40.00 93,751,000

BANK BUKOPIN 570.00 5.56 30.00 114,991,400,000 BANK RAKYAT INDO 5900.00 0.00 0.00 66,906,500

BANK CENTRAL ASI 7650.00 1.32 100.00 104,594,200,000 KERAMIKA INDO AS 92.00 12.20 10.00 64,052,500

TELEKOMUNIKASI 7450.00 1.36 100.00 99,811,120,000 TRADA MARITIME 780.00 -2.50 -20.00 58,605,500


Sri Lanka


NESTLE LANKA PLC 875.70 0.00 0.00 #N/A N/A TESS AGRO LTD 5.70 0.00 0.00 3,109,800

COLOMBO LAND & D 65.30 -0.91 -0.60 56,069,420 SMB LEASING PLC 2.70 3.85 0.10 3,164,300

REGNIS LANKA PLC 420.30 5.90 23.40 181,823,600 SMB LEASING - NV 0.80 0.00 0.00 2,210,500

ASIAN ALLIANCE 350.60 49.96 116.80 233,583,700 COLOMBO LAND & D 65.30 -0.91 -0.60 859,900

TESS AGRO LTD 5.70 0.00 0.00 17,491,400 BROWNS INVESTMEN 4.90 0.00 0.00 663,700

BUKIT DARAH PLC 1070.00 -0.10 -1.10 3,745,000 AMANA TAKAFUL 2.70 0.00 0.00 643,700

RADIANT GEMS INT 214.20 2.59 5.40 144,443,800 MULLER & PHIPPS 3.30 6.45 0.20 3,345,900

ENVIRONMENTAL RE 63.50 1.76 1.10 28,737,710 BLUE DIAMONDS JE 10.10 13.48 1.20 12,607,200

EAST WEST PROPER 31.80 1.60 0.50 17,738,750 FREE LANKA CAPIT 3.90 2.63 0.10 1,102,000

HVA FOODS LTD 54.80 0.55 0.30 32,331,680 VIDULLANKA PLC 9.00 0.00 0.00 1,611,000



9

Commodities & Currencies

Commodities % Chg Chg Last Currencies Price of FX to

S$ Price of FX to

US$

GOLD SPOT US$ / OZ +0.45 +7.30 1,614.40 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR 0.7889 0.9785

SILVER SPOT US$ / OZ +0.28 +0.09 30.63 CANADIAN DOLLAR 0.7992 1.0354

WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot Px +1.15 +0.93 82.14 EURO 0.5682 1.3586

BRITISH POUND 0.4937 1.5637 Source: Bloomberg

US DOLLAR 0.7721 1.0000

Commodities % Chg Chg Last CHINA RENMINBI 4.9400 6.3984

Malaysian Rubber Board Standard -3.25 -43.25 1288.50 HONG KONG DOLLAR 6.0145 7.7904

PALM OIL (RM$/METRIC TON) -0.71 -21.00 2919.00 JAPANESE YEN 59.2400 76.7200

Source: Bloomberg KOREAN WON 908.1294 1176.3000

Index % Chg Chg Last MALAYSIAN RINGGIT 2.4586 3.1850

DOLLAR INDEX SPOT -0.23 -0.18 77.92 THAI BAHT 24.0812 31.1900


US Treasury Yields

Maturity Today Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Months 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00

6 Months 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.03

2 Years 0.25 0.24 0.19 0.19

3 Years 0.43 0.40 0.33 0.31

5 Years 0.97 0.94 0.77 0.93

10 Years 1.99 1.98 1.72 2.18

30 Years 3.05 3.07 2.79 3.52

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 3 mths) 1.98

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 2 yrs) 1.74

Source: Data provided by ValuBond – http://www.valubond.com

Economic Announcement

US Singapore

Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior

9/30/11 Personal Income AUG 0.1% 0.3% 9/30/11 Credit Card Bad Debts AUG - - 15.3M

9/30/11 Personal Spending AUG 0.2% 0.8% 9/30/11 Credit Card Billings AUG - - 2897.2M

9/30/11 PCE Deflator (YoY) AUG 2.9% 2.8% 9/30/11 Bank Loans & Advances (YoY)

AUG - - 27.8%

9/30/11 PCE Core (MoM) AUG 0.2% 0.2% 9/30/11 M1 Money Supply (YoY) AUG - - 19.8%

9/30/11 PCE Core (YoY) AUG 1.7% 1.6% 9/30/11 M2 Money Supply (YoY) AUG - - 11.9%

9/30/11 Chicago Purchasing Manager

SEP 55.0 56.5 10/4/11 Electronics Sector Index SEP - - 48.0

9/30/11 U. of Michigan Confidence

SEP F 57.8 57.8 10/4/11 Purchasing Managers Index

SEP - - 49.4

9/30/11 NAPM-Milwaukee SEP 56.2 58.3 10/5/11 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A

5-Oct - - 48006

10/3/11 Construction Spending MoM

AUG -0.2% -1.3% 10/5/11 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B

5-Oct - - 64889

10/3/11 ISM Manufacturing SEP 50.3 50.6

10/5/11 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E

5-Oct - - 62502



10

Thailand Hong Kong


9/30/11 Foreign Reserves 23-Sep - - $184.8B 9/30/11 Money Supply M1 - in HK$ (YoY)

AUG - - 15.5%

9/30/11 Total Exports YOY% AUG - - 36.4% 9/30/11 Money Supply M2 - in HK$ (YoY)

AUG - - 9.4%

9/30/11 Forward Contracts 23-Sep - - $27.3B 9/30/11 Money Supply M3 - in HK$ (YoY)

AUG - - 9.3%

9/30/11 Total Exports in US$ Million

AUG - - $21098M 9/30/11 Govt Mthly Budget Surp/Def HK$

AUG - - 2.2B

9/30/11 Total Imports YOY% AUG - - 13.1% 10/3/11 Retail Sales - Value (YoY)

AUG - - 29.1%

9/30/11 Total Imports in US$ Million

AUG - - $18393M 10/3/11 Retail Sales - Volume (YoY)

AUG - - 22.4%

9/30/11 Total Trade Balance AUG - - $2705M 10/6/11 Purchasing Managers Index

SEP - - 47.8

9/30/11 Current Account Balance (USD)

AUG -$1050M $3574M 10/7/11 Foreign Currency Reserves

SEP - - $279.4B

9/30/11 Overall Balance in US$ Million

AUG - - $541M 10/18/11 Unemployment Rate SA SEP - - 3.2%

9/30/11 Business Sentiment Index

AUG - - 51.2 10/19/11 Composite Interest Rate SEP - - 0.33%

10/3/11 Consumer Price Index (YoY)

SEP 3.80% 4.29% 10/21/11 CPI - Composite Index (YoY)

SEP - - 5.7%

10/3/11 Consumer Price Index NSA (MoM)

SEP -0.43% 0.43% 10/25/11 Exports YoY% SEP - - - -

10/3/11 Core CPI (YoY) SEP 2.90% 2.85% 10/25/11 Imports YoY% SEP - - - -

10/7/11 Foreign Reserves 30-Sep - - - - 10/25/11 Trade Balance SEP - - - -

10/7/11 Forward Contracts 30-Sep - - - - 10/31/11 Money Supply M1 - in HK$ (YoY)

SEP - - - -


Indonesia Sri Lanka


10/3/11 Inflation (YoY) SEP - - 4.79% 9/30/2011 CPI Moving Average (YoY)

SEP 7.2% 7.1%

10/3/11 Inflation NSA (MoM) SEP - - 0.93% 9/30/2011 CPI (YoY) SEP 6.4% 7.0%

10/3/11 Core Inflation (YoY) SEP - - 5.15% 07-15 OCT Exports YoY% AUG - - 9.4%

10/3/11 Exports (YoY) AUG - - 39.5% 07-15 OCT Imports YoY% AUG - - 58.2%

10/3/11 Total Imports (YoY) AUG - - 27.2% 10/11/2011 Repurchase Rate 11-Oct - - 7.000%

10/3/11 Total Trade Balance AUG - - $1363M 10/11/2011 Reverse Repo Rate 11-Oct - - 8.500%

03-07 OCT Danareksa Consumer Confidence

SEP - - 88.2 10/31/2011 CPI Moving Average (YoY)

OCT - - - -

03-11 OCT Consumer Confidence Index

SEP - - 110.6 10/31/2011 CPI (YoY) OCT - - - -

03-07 OCT Foreign Reserves SEP - - $124.64B 07-15 NOV Exports YoY% SEP - - - -

05-09 OCT Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln)

SEP - - 1035.32T 07-15 NOV Imports YoY% SEP - - - -

07-13 OCT Money Supply - M1 (YoY)

AUG - - 18.5% 11/8/2011 Repurchase Rate 8-Nov - - - -

07-13 OCT Money Supply - M2 (YoY)

AUG - - 15.6% 11/8/2011 Reverse Repo Rate 8-Nov - - - -

10/11/11 Bank Indonesia Reference Rate

11-Oct - - 6.75% 11/30/2011 CPI Moving Average (YoY)

NOV - - - -

17-21 OCT Total Local Auto Sales SEP - - 73279 11/30/2011 CPI (YoY) NOV - - - -

17-21 OCT Total Motorcycle Sales SEP - - 679052


PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS

BUY >15% upside from the current price

HOLD Trade within ± 15% from the current price

SELL >15% downside from the current price

We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors

like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or

absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final

recommendation

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12

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