Political Attitudes and Public Opinion

I need to see …

Daniel Fried Takako Kimura Tyler Richards Lenis Warren

Problems with relying on public opinion

Many people lack political knowledge Attitudes not “ideological” (no apparent pattern) Attitudes seem to shift from day to day Difficult to measure reliably

Measuring Public Opinion

Polling Concerns:

– Sampling issues– Measurement issues

Sampling issues

What is the relevant population? Is the sample random?

- who do we ask? (selection bias)

- who answers? (nonresponse bias) Is the sample big enough?

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Number of Questions Answered Correctly

0

5

10

15

20

25

Nu

mb

er o

f S

tud

ents

4 4

13

18

12

24

16

11

6

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Number of Questions Answered Correctly

0

5

10

15

20

25

Nu

mb

er o

f S

tud

ents

4 4

12

19

11

25

1413

7

1

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Nu

mb

er o

f S

tud

ents

Co

rrec

tly

An

swer

ing

80

110

53

3128

53

94

31

6460

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Nu

mb

er o

f S

tud

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An

swer

ing

Co

rrec

tly

79

109

52

29 27

52

93

30

6357

Measurement issues

A poll is only as good as the questions asked! Problems

– Confusing questions– Value-laden questions (push polling)– Over-simplified questions– Satisficing– Salience– Question order

Possible Survey Question –What’s Wrong?

Most semesters are 15 weeks long; while most quarters are 10 weeks long.  However, in a quarter, we take out two days for Thanksgiving, one for Veteran’s Day, and one for Columbus Day.  On the other hand, semester schools also get Labor Day off, but they start several weeks earlier in the fall and generally attend school farther into December.  Plus, some semester systems take more than two days for Thanksgiving.  Considering the above, which system would you prefer?

Possible Survey Question – What’s Wrong?

Since informed political participation is the lynchpin of American democracy, should PSCI 1050 be a requirement for graduation?

Possible Survey Question –What’s Wrong?

Should abortion be legal or illegal?

Possible Survey Question –What’s Wrong?

Do you think UNT faculty should or should not be allowed to opt out of the Texas Teachers’ Retirement System?

What’s a politician to do??

Don’t take polls too seriously Know your audience! Avoid “position issues” in favor of “valence

issues”

Example of a Valence Issue