Population Growth

Materials and the Environmentt

Part 1 – Major Contributors to Increasing Consumption:

Population and Economic Growth

(Most recent update April 1, 2013)

Population Growth

Population Growth

World Population 1850-1950

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2013.

Billion

s


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


Billion

s


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


Billion

s

Sharp increase in growth rate as basic medical care is extended to 100s of millions that hadn’t before had access. Big drop in infant mortality.


(Medium Projection of Growth Assumed After 2000)

0123456789

10

Year

Billions


Number of years to add each billion (year)

Ninth

Eighth

Seventh

Sixth

Fifth

Fourth

Third

Second

First Billion (1800)

130 (1930)

30 (1960)

15 (1975)

12 (1987)

12 (1999)

13 (2012)

16 (2028)

26 (2054)

Growth in Global Population

Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population in 2300 (medium scenario),

2003.

All of recorded history

Millions

Annual Increase in World Population, 1951-2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Division, 2013.

China’s “great leap forward”

Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Birth rate Death rate

Natural Increas

e

World Birth and Death Rates, 1936-2010

Source: Data for 1936-2000 from United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003. Data for

2001-2010 from Population Reference Bureau, 2012.

Rates of Population Increase - 2013

Time Unit Population Increase

Year 78,044,135

Month 6,503,678

Week 1,496,740

Day 213,820

Hour 8,880

Minute 148

Second 2.5


Average Annual Rate of Population Growth for the

World, 1950 – 2020 Continuing Decline Since 1970

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Perc

en

t


Medium Projections of Population Growth

(Billions)

2000 2050 2100

World 6.1 9.2 10.1

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013.

Future population growth will largely occur in the Less Economically

Developed Countries

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

World Population Projection by Level of

Economic Development

Source: Population Reference Bureau (2013)

Billion

s

Developing Countries

Developed Countries

But significant growth of the U.S. population is

expected as well

Growth of U.S. Population, 1776- 2012

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


Million

s

Growth of U.S. Population, 1776- 2100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

History

Projection


Medium Projections of Population Growth

(World pop. in billions, U.S. in millions)

2000 2050 2100

World 6.1 9.2 10.1

United States 281 404 571


Discussions about population and population

growth tend to trigger great passion and substantial

disagreement. But one thing is abundantly clear –

continued growth is reducing the margin for error.

As the population grows . . .

. . . the area of biosphere per person becomes progressively smaller.

Consider this reality in the context of forests

Forests Then and Now - World

• In 1800• World population was 1 billion• There were about 11 acres (4.5

ha.) of forests for each person in the world

• Today• World population is over 7 billion• There are about 1.4 acres (0.6

ha.) of forest for each person in the world

Forests Then, Now, and Future - World

By the end of the next century

• World population is expected to reach 10 to 11 billion

• Even with zero loss of forests over the next 100 years, the amount of forest land for each person in the world will shrink to 0.7 to 0.8 acres (or about 0.3 ha.) - - half the current forest area per capita.

Forests Then and Now – U.S.

Year

Population

Forest Area (million ac.)

Forest Area/ Capita (acres)

1785 3,000,000

1,044 348

1850 23,300,000

926 40

1910 77,000,000

730 9.5

2000 281,000,000

747 2.7

2010 309,330,000

751 2.4

Source: Population data from U.S. Census Bureau, historical population estimates. Forest area figures from U.S. Forest Service.

Forests Then and Now – U.S.

Year

Population

Forest Area (million ac.)

Forest Area/ Capita (acres)

1785 3,000,000

1,044 348

1850 23,300,000

926 40

1910 77,000,000

730 9.5

2000 281,000,000

747 2.7

2010 309,330,000

751 2.4

2100 571,000,00

0

751 1.3

Source: Population data from U.S. Census Bureau, historical population estimates and projections. Forest area figures from U.S. Forest

Service; year 2100 figure based scenario in which there is no forest loss between 2010 and 2100.

Reductions in forest land/capita virtually ensure

escalating conflict over forest use, and raise the

question of where needed wood supplies will come

from in the future.

The same is true of minerals, energy resources, food,

agricultural fiber, and more.

No less significant, the world will be faced in the 21st

century with the challenge of providing food, fuel,

shelter, and clothing for a much larger population.

Economic Economic GrowthGrowth

Economic Economic GrowthGrowth

EconomyEconomy

Gross Domestic Product:

The value of all goods and services produced within the borders of a nation.

Gross World Product:

The sum of all Gross Domestic Product values expressed in a common

currency.

Gross World Product, 1970-2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Trillions of 2005 U.S. dollars

Source: United Nations Statistics Division, 2013.(http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnllist.asp)

An increase of 3.6X. World population increased

about 1.9x over the same period.

Source: IMF (2013)

As with Population, Economies of the Developing Nations are Growing Most

Rapidly

Historical and Projected Growth of World GDP by Level of Economic Development Annual Percent Change

1993-2000 2001-2008 2009-2012 2013-2016

Advanced Economies

3.1

2.1

1.1

2.4

Emerging and Developing Countries

4.1

6.6

5.7

6.7

World 3.5 4.0 3.3 4.6

China’s Gross Domestic Product

(Expressed in Current $US)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Bil

lio

ns

of

Cu

rren

t U

.S.

Do

llar

s

Source: World Bank, 2013.

Coincidentally, those nations with the most

rapidly rising populations, are also those with the most rapidly expanding

economies.

This translates to rapidly rising consumption.

It is a virtual certainty that

consumption of raw materials globally will

increase substantially in

the future.

Consider housing:

One effect of population and economic growth will be

demand for over one billion new housing units globally

over the next 50 years..

How will society achieve this while at the same time maintaining an environment that most of us would agree is acceptablechildren?for our children and grand-

Summary

• World and U.S. populations are growing.

• The rate of population growth is slowing, though significant and ongoing increase in numbers continues.

• Populations are growing most rapidly in the developing nations.

• World economic growth is much more rapid than the rate of population growth.

– as a result, per capita consumption of goods of all kinds is rising globally.

Summary

• The combined effect is a number of challenges for the global society.

A key challenge is how to maintain environmental quality for future generations, while at the same time providing for the needs of current generations.

Documents

Population Growth