Project Management in PracticeProject Management in ...kisi.deu.edu.tr/uzeyme.dogan/dosyalar/05_pert_cpm_tanitimi_ornek.pdf · PERT/CPM termiljiiinolojisi ... Task will be between

Project Management in PracticeProject Management in PracticeSecond Edition

Mantel, Meredith, Shafer, and Sutton

Prepared byp yScott M. Shafer

Wake Forest UniversityWake Forest University

John Wiley and Sons, Inc.Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons,

Inc.5-1

Jo W ey a d So s, c.

Chapter 5Chapter 5

Scheduling the Project

Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

5-2

PERT AND CPM NETWORKSPERT AND CPM NETWORKS


5-3

ihTarihçe

1950 lerin sonlarındaP E l i d R i T h i– Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Program değerlendirme ve gözden

i k iğigeçirme tekniği• U.S. Navy, Booz-Allen Hamilton, and Lockeheed

Ai ftAircraft• Probabilistic faaliyet süreleri

– Critical Path Method (CPM) Kritik yol yöntemi• Dupont De Nemours Inc.


5-4• Deterministic faaliyet süreleri

/C i l ji iPERT/CPM terminolojisi

Activity –Faaliyet-İşlemGö ö l i– Görev veya görevler seti

– Kaynak kullanırEvent- Olay- Düğüm

Bir yada daha fazla faaliyetin tamamlanması– Bir yada daha fazla faaliyetin tamamlanması durumuK k d k ll– Kaynak ya da zaman kullanmaz

– Öncel(öncül) faaliyetler tamamlanmalıCopyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons,

Inc.5-5

/CPERT/CPM terminolojisi

Milestones- kilometre taşlarıh k i ifi– events that mark significant progress

Network –Ağ-Serimğ– diagram of nodes and arcs

used to illustrate technological relationships– used to illustrate technological relationshipsPath -Yol– series of connected activities between two

eventsCopyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons,

Inc.5-6

/CPERT/CPM

Critical Path –Kritik Yolf i i i h h if d l d ill– set of activities on a path that if delayed will

delay completion of projectCritical Time –Kritik süre- Proje tamamlanma süresi– time required to complete all activities on the

critical pathcritical path


5-7

k A lNetwork- Ağı oluşturma

AOA (Activity 0n Arc) Network(faali etlerin oklarla gösterimi(faaliyetlerin oklarla gösterimiAON(Activity on Node) Network(faaliyetlerin düğümlerle gösterimi)


5-8

Table 5-1 A Sample Set of ProjectTable 5 1 A Sample Set of Project Activities and Precedences

Task Predecessora --a

b --

c a

d b

e b

f df c, d

g eCopyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons,

Inc.5-9

Figure 5-1 Stage 1 of a SampleFigure 5 1 Stage 1 of a Sample AON Network


5-10

Figure 5-2 Stage 2 of a SampleFigure 5 2 Stage 2 of a Sample AON Network


5-11

Figure 5-3 A Completed SampleFigure 5 3 A Completed Sample AON Network


5-12

Figure 5-4 Stage 1 of a SampleFigure 5 4 Stage 1 of a Sample AOA Network


5-13

Figure 5-5 Stage 2 of a SampleFigure 5 5 Stage 2 of a Sample AOA Network


5-14

Figure 5-6a A Completed SampleFigure 5 6a A Completed Sample AOA Network


5-15

Figure 5-6b A Completed Sample AOAFigure 5-6b A Completed Sample AOA Network Showing the Use of a Dummy Task


5-16

Table 5-2 A Sample Problem for FindingTable 5 2 A Sample Problem for Finding the Critical Path and Critical Time

Activity Predecessor Duration

a -- 5 daysb -- 4c a 3d a 4d a 4e a 6f b, c 4g d 5h d, e 6i f 6j g, h 4


5-17

Figure 5-7 Stage 1 of a SampleFigure 5 7 Stage 1 of a Sample Network


5-18

i 8 A C l kFigure 5-8 A Complete Network


5-19

Figure 5-9 Information ContentsFigure 5 9 Information Contents in an AON Node


5-20

Figure 5-10 The Critical Path andFigure 5 10 The Critical Path and Time for Sample Project


5-21

Faaliyetlerin Boşluk SüreleriniFaaliyetlerin Boşluk Sürelerini Hesaplama

Slack or FloatLST EST LFT EFT Sl k (b l k)LST - EST = LFT - EFT = Slack (boşluk)


5-22

Figure 5-11 An MSP Version ofFigure 5 11 An MSP Version of PERT/CPM Network


5-23

Figure 5-12 A Modified VersionFigure 5 12 A Modified Version of MSP Network


5-24

PROJECT UNCERTAINTY AND RISK MANAGEMENT


5-25

Calculating Probabilistic ActivityCalculating Probabilistic Activity Times

Three Time EstimatesP i i i (kö ü ) (b)– Pessimistic (kötümser) (b)

– most likely(en olası) (m)– Optimistic(iyimser) (a)


5-26

Figure 5-13 The Statistical Distribution of all Possible Times for an Activity(beta dağılımı)(beta dağılımı)


5-27

Activity Expected Time andActivity Expected Time and Variance

E 6)4(T ++

=bma

6

6)( −

=abσ

2)( ⎞⎛ b 22

6)(Var ⎟

⎠⎞

⎜⎝⎛ −

==abσ


5-28

9 l95 Percent Level

Task will be a or lower 5 percent of the timetimeTask will be b or greater 5 percent of the time

)(b33

)( ab −=σ

3.3


5-29

90 l90 Percent Level

Task will be a or lower 10 percent of the timetimeTask will be b or greater 10 percent of the time

)(b62

)( ab −=σ

6.2


5-30

95 Percent Level (Alternative95 Percent Level (Alternative Interpretation)

Task will be between a and b 95 percent of the timethe time

)( ab −=σ

92.3σ


5-31

90 Percent Level (Alternative90 Percent Level (Alternative Interpretation)

Task will be between a and b 90 percent of the timethe time

)( ab −=σ

29.3=σ


5-32

i 14 A AO kFigure 5-14 An AON Network


5-33

Figure 5-15 An MSP Version ofFigure 5 15 An MSP Version of a Sample Problem Network


5-34

Figure 5-16 A Pert/CPMFigure 5 16 A Pert/CPM Network for the Day Care Project


5-35

Figure 5-17 An MSP Calendar for theFigure 5 17 An MSP Calendar for the Day Care Project, 4/16/00 to 5/27/00


5-36

The Probability of CompletingThe Probability of Completing the Project on Time

)(D2

)(σ

μ−=

DZμσ

=NORMDIST(D μ σ TRUE)=NORMDIST(D,μ,σμ,TRUE)


5-37

Figure 5-18 The Statistical Distribution ofFigure 5-18 The Statistical Distribution of Completion Times of the Path a-b-d-g-h


5-38

S l i i k d i diSelecting Risk and Finding D

2σμ ZD += μσμ ZD +=

NORMINV(probability,μ,σ ,TRUE)NORMINV(probability,μ,σμ,TRUE)


5-39

SIMULATIONSIMULATION


5-40

Traditional Statistics VersusTraditional Statistics Versus Simulation

Similaritiesl h– must enumerate alternate paths

Differences– simulation does not require assumption of path

independenceindependence


5-41

THE GANNT CHARTTHE GANNT CHART


5-42

Figure 5-23 A Gantt Chart of aFigure 5 23 A Gantt Chart of a Sample Project


5-43

Figure 5-24 A Gantt Chart of Sample Project Showing Critical Path, Path Connections, Slack, EST, LST, EFT, and LFT


5-44

Figure 5-25 A Gantt Chart of a Day Care Project Showing Expected Durations, Critical Path, Milestone, and Resource Requirements


5-45

Figure 5-26 A Progress Report on a Day CareFigure 5-26 A Progress Report on a Day Care Project Showing Actual Progress Versus Baseline


5-46

EXTENSIONS TO PERT/CPMEXTENSIONS TO PERT/CPM


5-47

d i iPrecedence Diagramming

Finish-to-start linkageli kStart-to-start linkage

Finish-to-finish linkageFinish to finish linkageStart-to-finish linkage


5-48

Figure 5-27 PrecedenceFigure 5 27 Precedence Diagramming Conventions


5-49

O h h dOther Methods

Graphical Evaluation and Review Techniq e (GERT)Technique (GERT)– combines flowgraphs, probabilistic networks,

and decision trees– allows loops back to earlier events and p

probabilistic branching


5-50

C i hCopyrightCopyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.All rights reserved. Reproduction or translation of this work beyond that

permitted in Section 117 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act without express permission of the copyright owner is unlawful. Request for further information should be addressed to the Permissions qDepartment, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. The purchaser may make back-up copies for his/her own use only and not for distribution or resale. The Publisher assumes no responsibility for errors omissions orThe Publisher assumes no responsibility for errors, omissions, or damages, caused by the use of these programs or from the use of the information herein.


5-51

Documents

Project Management in PracticeProject Management in ...kisi.deu.edu.tr/uzeyme.dogan/dosyalar/05_pert_cpm_tanitimi_ornek.pdf · PERT/CPM termiljiiinolojisi ... Task will be between