Public attitudes to the Covid-19 crisis, No. 37, 18th December 2020 Overview by Jake Puddle and Sunder Katwala

Key themes this week: - Most looking forward to Christmas – but doubts about relaxing rules. - Covid, Brexit and Economy continue to be public priorities – as immigration salience fades. - UK public share international consensus on US and UK as under-performers on Covid – and rank high on pro-vaccine sentiment in comparative context. Festive outlook on Christmas but fears that rule relaxation goes too far After a long year, a broad majority (70%) say that they are looking forward to Christmas, with some dampening effect from Covid. Anxiety about the costs of celebrating Christmas (66%) appears similar to non-pandemic years.

Half of the public (49%) worry that the Christmas relaxations are not strict enough, while a similar proportion found the policy balance is about right (39%) or too strict (10%) in the Ipsos-Mori survey.

However, YouGov reported 57% to 31% support for dropping the Christmas relaxations. By a similar margin, respondents were more likely to think people generally have poor (58%) rather than good judgement (39%) in making personal decisions to manage the risk of spreading Covid. Currently Coronavirus restrictions are due Thinking about Covid-19, do you think that to be relaxed for five days over Christmas. people in the UK have… Do you think…

Covid tops Issues Index through 2020, but economic and Brexit concerns re-emerging

The latest monthly Ipsos MORI Issues Index sees Covid dominant – and rising concern about the economy (+5). Poverty/inequality fell back by 7%, reversing an October spike, partly driven by Marcus Rashford’s high-profile campaigning on school meals.

Throughout 2020, Covid, Brexit and the economy have consistently dominated as the top three most important issues. Perhaps counter-intuitively, the priority given to the NHS fell somewhat across the year, below its salience during the pre-pandemic general election.

The salience of Brexit has risen again in the second half of the year, though the talks deadline had yet to entirely grip public attention during this 20th-27th November fieldwork. a

Immigration salience at its lowest level of this century Immigration ranks 12th – with 5% making it one of their top three issues, its lowest score since 1999, despite the increased political and media focus on asylum.

Race relations ranked 10th overall (6%) but with considerably higher salience (17%) among ethnic minority respondents, who rank it 5th, only marginally behind the NHS. Ethnic minority respondents were considerably less likely to prioritise Brexit or climate change.

Economic pessimism about the year ahead

There is a gloomy economic outlook heading into 2021. Two thirds of the public expect the economic situation to worsen (despite GDP having already fallen 8% since the pandemic began). But a growing minority (27%) think the economy will improve over the next year, which is the highest proportion recorded since February. In the issues index, 47% of those aged 55-64 listed the economy as a key issue, more than twice the percentage of people aged 18-24 (23%).

Concern about unemployment began the year at its lowest since 2008. Having risen to the 4th most important issue in September, its salience has fallen since, with some concerns allayed by the extension of the furlough scheme.

UK seen as second-worst performing country during pandemic response, behind USA Polling for the Kekst Opinion Tracker reveals that – both nationally and abroad – the UK has been regarded as one of the worst performing countries for its handling of the pandemic after the USA.

The British public hold broadly positive perceptions on the response to coronavirus in South Korea (+42% net rating), Germany (+32%) and Japan (+31%), with a negative self-perception of the UK (-32) in line with/mildly tougher than external perceptions. The British also hold the most negative perception of US performance (-76) in this survey. There is a considerable degree of international consensus on the comparative performance of different countries.

• US respondents are less critical of their own country– while being more impressed by responses elsewhere, including +7 for the UK.

• The strongest example of exceptionalism is that Japanese respondents are the most self-critical, while Swedish and German respondents are more favourable about their own national response than the comparative average.

In a comparative context, the UK has consistently had the strongest prioritisation of health over economic concerns about the impacts of Covid, despite some rebalancing on this axis over the year in the UK.

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The Kekst survey also finds that UK appetite for the vaccine is comparatively high. This has been a consistent feature of comparative polling, along with higher scepticism in France.

Public attitudes sources and links:

Ipsos Mori: Half believe Christmas measures not strict enough https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/half-believe-christmas-coronavirus-measures-not-strict-enough YouGov: Do people in the UK have good/poor judgement on managing the risk of spreading Covid-19 https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2020/12/16/b1ff6/1 YouGov: Do you think the relaxation of rules over Christmas should go ahead? https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2020/12/16/b1ff6/1 Ipsos Mori: November Issues Index https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-issues-index-november-2020 Ipsos Mori: Economic Optimism Index 2020 https://twitter.com/CameronGarrett_/status/1338477477992206337/photo/1 Kekst International Opinion Tracker https://www.kekstcnc.com/media/3031/kekst-cnc_research-report_covid19_opinion-tracker_wave-6_final-101150.pdf