Rice systems in Southeast Asia:h ll d ichallenges to production

FAO/OECD WorkshopRome ItalyRome, Italy

24 April, 2012

Caterina Batello

Rice in Southeast Asia

• Rice has been feeding Southeast Asia’s population for over 4 thousand years

• It is the central subject of:• economic policy • a determinant of national objectives• an important anchor in the maintenance of political stability• an important anchor in the maintenance of political stability

Year 2000 2020 2050

Population (millions) 520 650 780

Rice production (MT) 150 160 180

Per capita consumption (kg) 270 250 230

Source: Better crops International, Vol. 15, Special Supplement, May 2002

Drought

• Drought regularly occurs on 23 million ha of rice land in Asia (Pandey et al 2007)23 million ha of rice land in Asia (Pandey et al., 2007)

• Severe droughts in recent years:• India from 2001-2002 production India from 2001 2002 production

decreased by 23% (FAOSTAT)

• Thailand 2003 to 2004 production decreased by 3% (FAOSTAT)decreased by 3% (FAOSTAT)

Heat sensitive stages in rice1 0 0

et fe

rtili

ty (%

)

4 0

6 0

8 0

1 0 0

Microsporogenesis

D a y re la tiv e to a n th e s is-2 5 -2 0 -1 5 -1 0 -5 0 5 1 0

Spik

ele

0

2 0

4 0

Anthesis

80

100

120

ity (%

) Control

Heat

D a y re la tiv e to a n th e s isSource: Yoshida et al., 1981 in Jagadish ppt 2010

0

20

40

60

80

Spik

elet

fert

ili

0

IR200

6

IR200

6 IR6

N22(481

9)N22

(4819)

N22(626

4)Vand

ana

GenotypesSource: Jagadish et al., unpub in Jagadish ppt 2010Jagadish ppt 2010

Heat sensitive stages in rice (cont.)

Source: Mittler, 2006 in Jagadish ppt 2010

Salinity

2008, Gotha, UP, India

Swarna Sub1

• Salinity tolerance is important at both

dli d Swarna

Swarna-Sub1 seedling and reproductive stages of the rice plant

Eastern UP, 2007:Eastern UP, 2007:32 sites comparison32 sites comparisonSwarnaSwarna: 2.69 t/ha: 2.69 t/haSwarnaSwarna--Sub1:3.92 t/haSub1:3.92 t/haSwarnaSwarna Sub1:3.92 t/haSub1:3.92 t/ha

NEFORD & NDUAT in Mackill et al., ppt in 2010

Traditional varieties and local k l dknowledge

• many varieties and lines of flood resisting rice are still grown by are still grown by farmers and maintained in genebanks

i h • more attention to the local varieties and production systems is p yneeded

Submergence

• Submergence is increasingly becoming a major production constraint, affecting about 15-20 million ha of rice fields in South and Southeast Asia

• It is causing a loss of up to USD 1 billion every year

Intermediate heightHigh tilleringLodging resistanceSubmergence toleranceSubmergence toleranceSource: Mackill ppt 2010

Limitation of current approaches t d t tito adaptation

• Lack of functional models • Lack of functional models capable of representing rice-based farming systems (in Roth ppt 2010)

• Lack of integration of social sciences and weak social sciences and weak capabilities in interdisciplinary and systems science (in Roth ppt 2010)

Simulation designClimate change AdaptationClimate change Adaptation

Elevated CO2 Increased Temp. Shifting Temp. Panicle tolerance

1.0xCO2

+1

+0

S1

S0

T1

T0

B1 1.5xCO2

2.0xCO2

+2

+3

S2

S3

T2

T3

B1

A1B

2.5xCO2

+4

+5

S4

S5

T4

T5A2

2070 +6 S6 T6

29 year historic weather data superimposed with climate change factors29 year historic weather data superimposed with climate change factors

2070~2100 data

Source: Tao Li ppt 2010

Adaptation priorities – Bangladesh case studycase study

Capital Collective actions targeted at…

Human improving regional education and health services, community events, increase sharing, raising awareness, improving quality of education and training;

Social improving extension and information access, better planning, improving Social improving extension and information access, better planning, improving networks and social interactions (sense of community), increase membership in formal & non-formal groups;

Natural improving planning, extension services, management strategies, monitoring and improving incentives;monitoring, and improving incentives;

Physical building cyclone centre, improve road networks and infrastructure, funding for modern equipments, improving education;

Financial provide facilities of the formal financial institution, change policies of financial institution, inspire the cooperative system, reduce rate of interest, provide agricultural subsidy.

Source: Iqbal Khan et al 2009Source: Iqbal Khan et al., 2009

Ecosystem Approach to adaptation, mitigation Intensification through FFSmitigation, Intensification through FFS

• Enhancing productivity • Resource use efficiency• Resource use efficiency• Ecological and economic sustainability• A global survey in 2005 estimated that, by 2008,

10–20 million farmers would have graduated from FFS

From Integrated Pest Management t FFSto FFS

R d i i id l d b 50% • Reduce insecticide load by > 50% while food production grows with population

• Reduce Highly Toxic Pesticides that are available in country

• Strengthen Institutional Bases for IPM

Deep Urea Placement

Farmers who use Urea Deep Placement reduce urea use by 78 to 150 kg/ha and increase paddy yields by y g/ p y y y900 to 1 100 kg/ha. The net return with UDP versus broadcasting averages USD188/ha.

Mali Irrigated RiceIPPM and Conventional Practice

eMean Savingsto Farmers: $ 348 / Ha

41%

IPPM and Conventional Practice

8000

ated

Ric

e 41%

4000

6000

/ Ha

Irrig

a

Median:Yield = 7,187 kgNet value = $1,192

2000

4000

Kg

/

Median:Yield = 5,210 kgNet value = $844

0

2000

N = 23 FFS

IPPM FP

Challenges• Rising costs of inputs for rice farming• Poor water quality • Poor land availability and management

• Soil nutrient leaching: about USD18.7 billion is spent to replace soil nutrients lost to erosion each year

• Philippines: has lost 50% of irrigated cropland• Thailand: has lost about 32 km2/year• Indonesia: has lost 200 km2/year

• Market balance – import/export demands• the rice export market is highly concentrated • the rice export market is highly concentrated

(Thailand, India, Vietnam, USA and China), this accounts for 81% of the rice global markets

Conclusions

• Integration of research into adaptive capacity with farming systems modelling ff f l ti h foffers way of selecting such farmer-

preferred adaptation options• Research about stress tolerant species • Increased focus on traditional knowledge• Increased focus on traditional knowledge• Improve knowledge and technology

concerning efficient use of inputs (fertilizers, pesticides)p )

• Increased policy dialogue to develop adaptation and mitigation rice production systems in the framework of international

t h th I t ti l Ri agreements such as the International Rice Commission and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Thank youThank you