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Demographic challengesFinding solutions for urban resilience to nature’s challenges
Brazilian–Finnish Workshop
Ricardo OjimaRio Grande do Norte Federal
University
Brazilian demographic transition
Fertility
Mortality
Population Growth
Brazilian demographic transition
1,5
1,7
1,9
2,1
2,3
2,5
2,7
2,9
3,1
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Taxa
de
Fe
cun
did
ade
To
tal (
n. m
éd
io d
e f
ilho
s p
or
mu
lhe
r)
Taxa de Fecundidade Total, Regiões e RN - 2000 a 2011
Região Nordeste
Rio Grande do Norte
Região Norte
Região Sudeste
Região Sul
Região Centro-Oeste
Total Fertility Rate (TFR), Brazil and EnglandTotal Fertility Rate (TFR), Brazil and Regions 2000-2011
Source: Estimativas: IBGE/Projeções demográficas preliminares; Dados
Diretos: MS/SVS - SINASC
Brazilian demographic transition
Crude Birth RateDeath Birth RateNatural Increase Rate
Source: ALVES, J.E.D. (2009)
Demographic Transition, Brazil (1872-2050)
Brazilian total population is expected to
fall after reaching 219 million at 2040’s.
Can population degrowth solve or even
reduce environmental crisis?
Is there demographic challenges without
total populational increase?
POPULATION AND
RESOURCES
ABSOLUTECONSUMPTION
PATTERN
Young and larger families
Old and small families
Share os population growth and CO2 emissions growth, 1980-2005 and 1950-1980
Brazil 2000-2010
Population
13% increase
Cars
86% increase
Trucks
97% increase
Motorcicles
314%
Change in % of age groups, Brazil – 2000-2060*
Source: IBGE - Projeção da População do Brasil por sexo e idade: 2000-2060
* Projections : 2020 a 2060.
30,0%25,5%
20,9% 17,6% 15,5% 14,1% 13,0%
64,4%67,7%
69,7%69,0%
66,9%63,3%
60,2%
5,6% 6,8% 9,4%13,4%
17,6%22,6%
26,8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
65+
15- 64
0-14
Understanding demographic
composition by age, sex, social groups
can be more important than look after
total population control.
Until 2030, Brazillian population will
increase more in 15-64 age groups. This
could be the demographic bônus, with
the max % of population in productive
ages.
Income and consumption by age, Brazil 2008
Source: World Bank, 2011. POF2008/2009
It could help the economic
development, but an older population
also have higher consumption rates.
Social Classes Evolution, Brazil 2003, 2013 and 2023*
Source: SERASA-EXPERIAN, 2014
* Projection
49,0%
24,0%
9,0%
38,0%
54,0%
58,0%
13,0%
22,0%
33,0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2003 2013 2023
Upper
Middle
Working
Consumption
Labor income
Family/household size
Population growth rate and household growth rate (% per year), Brazil
1980-2010
Average number of persons per household
– 1991 4,2 persons
– 2010 3,3 persons
Source: IBGE – Demographic Census 1980 and 2010
Population Households
Reducing fertility rates leads to small
households. The same population is now
living in more households. The per
capita rate of consumption increases.
Population Distribution
Cities and urban population distribution by biomes, 2010
45,7
27,5
30,133,6
12,9 19,2
61,7
33,3
34,8
63,9
32,4
33,1
86,4
81,6
36,044,4
44,4
77,8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Conselho municipal demeio ambiente
Fundo municipal de meioambiente
Licenciamento ambientalde impacto local
Amazonia Caatinga CerradoMata Atlântica Pampa Pantanal
INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK
% of municipalities with environmental regulation policies by biomes, 2009
Source: IBGE, Pesquisa de Informações Básicas Municipais (MUNIC), 2009.
Local environmental
council
Municipal
Environmental Fund
Local enrivonmental
impact regulation
26,2
63,6
58,0
55,6
45,2
27,7
12,2
4,3
14,0
37,8
34,9
34,2
26,7
14,1
4,3
1,2
8,1
21,2
21,2
21,6
16,6
9,9
2,4
0,5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Total
Até 5.000 hab.
De 5.001 a 10.000 hab.
De 10.001 a 20.000 hab.
De 20.001 a 50.000 hab.
De 50.001 a 100.000 hab.
De 100.001 a 500.000 hab.
Mais de 500.000 hab.
Cla
ss
es
de
ta
ma
nh
o d
a p
op
ula
çã
o d
os
mu
nic
ípio
s
% de domicílios com saneamento inadequado
2010
2000
1991
% of households with inadequate sanitation conditions by
municipal population size (1991-2010)
Source: IBGE, Censos Demográficos 1991-2010
In absolute numbers, Brazillian larger
cities have more people exposed to
environmental stress, around 50% os
population.
Another 50% is distribucted in small cities
with a fragile institutional framework,
specially for environmental questions.
Social and environmental vulnerability
reduced in last decades, but still have
demographic inbalances that needs
detailed analysis.
Considerations
Impacts of urbanization and demographic transitions in Brazil occurred simultaneously;
Brazil is an urban country experiencing a demographic bonus
Consumption increase with ageing and it will be faster than in another developed countries
How to guarantee sustainability in an ageing population?
How reduce poverty without increase consumption?
Adaptation and resilience policies in large or small cities must have different strategies.
Brazilian smaller cities cannot be ignored, specially in some ecological contexts like the
semiarid region.
It’s time to forget Malthus and look carefully to population patterns and dynamics.
Demographic challengesFinding solutions for urban resilience to nature’s challenges
Brazilian–Finnish Workshop
Ricardo OjimaRio Grande do Norte Federal
University
http:// www.abep.org.br
http:// www.demografiaufrn.net
http://demografianordeste.blogspot.com
