Service Life Predictionacademy.amccentre.nl/thesis/presentatie/Presentation_W_Koops.pdf · (Wikipedia) Definitions obsolescence 5 Early 20th century Service Life Prediction 12-3-2012

Service Life Prediction

Infrastructure Assets RWS

Thesis: MSc Asset management Control Student: W. Koops Date: 2012 March 09

Rijkswaterstaat

2

Thesis Presentation “MSc. Asset Management Control”

10:30 Welcome / reception

10:45 Thesis Presentation

11:15 Public Defense

11:45 Assessment by the Examining Panel

12:00 Presentation of Results and Diploma

12:15 Reception and lunch

13:00 Closing

12-3-2012 Service Life Prediction

Rijkswaterstaat

3

Content presentation

1. Scope of research

2. Research methodology

3. Theoretical framework

4. Reference model

5. Case study “Krammer locks”

6. Conclusions

7. Recommendations

8. Evaluation


Rijkswaterstaat

4

Research topic

The research topic addresses research into the predictability of the Service Life of infrastructure assets and how to improve. Four classes of deterioration, which lead to the end of Service Life, can be distinguished:


1. Mechanics based, (static, dynamic and fatigue loads);

2. Degradation based, (behaviour under physical, chemical and biological loads);

3. Accidental damage, (i.e. accidents, hail, lightning, operating errors, etc…);

4. Obsolescence, (a class of -non technical- deterioration that shows due to the inability to satisfy functional (human), economical, cultural or ecological requirements).

Rijkswaterstaat

The state of being which occurs when an object, service or practice is no longer wanted even though it may still be in good working order. (Wikipedia)

Definitions obsolescence

5

Early 20th century


21th century The inability to satisfy functional (human), economical, cultural or ecological requirements. (Asko)

Rijkswaterstaat

Life Cycle Management (MIRT & SLA)


Design / construct Sustain Reconstruct Sustain Dismantle

Rijkswaterstaat


Cases studied

River Maas

Zuid-Willems Vaart

Hansweert-Krammer

• De Maas

• Zuid Willems Vaart

• Hansweert-Krammer (test-case)

Rijkswaterstaat

8

Problem definition

Not having coherent information on performance requirements, used in the design- and sustainment phase of infrastructure assets, predicting the Service Life based on deterioration due to obsolescence.


Rijkswaterstaat

How can information concerning performance requirements be structured to improve the predictability of the end of Service Life of infrastructure assets caused by obsolescence?

9

Research Question and scope


Externalinfluences on

utilisation

(e.g. customerdemands andregulatory or

ecologicalchanges)

Service life prediction

based on information on

obsolescence

Performance requirements

Infrastructure Assets

Sustainment phase



Design phase

Rijkswaterstaat

12-3-2012

Research model


Rijkswaterstaat

Deterioration tree (Asko / Moubray / IEC 60300-3-11)


Service Life Prediction Obsolescence based

Rijkswaterstaat

System design (Blanchard)

12-3-2012

1

2

3 8


Rijkswaterstaat

13

Methods used

To correlate, as closely as possible, with existing methodologies used within RWS and supporting the monitoring of obsolescence, the three following steps are recommended as a base for the reference model.


A. Start by defining system borders and apply synthesis of system parts, “System Analysis”, part of Systems Engineering, using a „System Breakdown Structure‟ (SBS);

B. Set up a functional hierarchy, “Function Analysis” part of Systems Engineering, using FFBD‟s;

C. Make a matrix “House of Quality” to relate causes of obsolescence (external influences) per „type‟ to functions and (obligatory) performance requirements with QFD.

Rijkswaterstaat

A) System analysis (Six layer model of Water Infra System)

B) Functional analysis (FBS Water Infra System)

C) Requirement analysis (QFD)

Reference model SLIM


Externalinfluences on

utilisation

(e.g. customerdemands andregulatory or

ecologicalchanges)

Service life prediction

based on information on

obsolescence



Sustainment phase



Design phase

Service Life Planning

Deterioration

Mechanics based

Deterioration

Degradation based

Rijkswaterstaat


Hansweert – Krammer

Rijkswaterstaat

Krammer Locks

Service Life Prediction 12-3-2012

Rijkswaterstaat

SBS


Rijkswaterstaat

FFBD


Rijkswaterstaat

19

House of Quality (RWS)


QUALITATIVE DESCRIPTION

QUANTITATIVE (METRIC) FORMULATION

QUANTITATIVE (METRIC) FORMULATION

SCORE OBSOLESCENSE (Future demand)

WHEN?

STAKEHOLDER INFORMATION

Rijkswaterstaat

20

Conclusion

1. The HoQ provides a transparent listing of asset information to serve communication and decision-making on (re) construction;

2. Seen from the ambition of OP2015 to improve public-oriented network management, the developed “WHY” and “ WHEN” annex, with stakeholder information, certainly has added value;

3. The HoQ need further development to define the interpolation of the „obsolescence margin‟ of TPM‟s, to the score of the HoQ.


Rijkswaterstaat

21

Recommendations

1. Conducting further research into “Modern QFD” and additional instruments, to define the interpolation of the „obsolescence margin‟ of TPM‟s, to the score of the HoQ;

2. The HoQ and the maintenance plans for infrastructure assets should be combined in integral sustainment plans for infrastructure assets;

3. The HoQ should be used, as part of LCM, to transfer performance requirements (TPM‟s) through all life cycle phases of Service Life of infrastructure assets.


Rijkswaterstaat

22

Evaluation

• The ambition of the research, based on the three cases studied, was to research obsolescence on a network-unit level;

• Obsolescence can have many faces (deterioration tree) and affects network performance, but depends on the capability of infrastructure assets;

• To define whether the ‟obsolescence type‟ is function related, and how (with which score), obsolescence affects the design TPM‟s of infrastructure assets, first the function requirements for concerning network category and network-unit should be determined;

• RWS should make better agreements with the principal in order to define causal related requirements for the system layers 1, 2, 3 and 4!


Rijkswaterstaat

23 12-3-2012 Service Life Prediction

A. Cost Effective Management Control of Capital Assets, 2002; Mr J. Stavenuiter

B. Logistics Engineering and management, 2004; Mr B.S. Blanchard

C. Reliability-Centred Maintenance, 2007; Mr J. Moubray

D. International Infrastructure Management Manual, 2006; NAMS

E. Life Cycle Costing, 2003; Mr J. Emblemsvag

F. Integrated Logistics Support Handbook, 2006; Mr J. Jones

G. Quality Function Deployment, 1991; Mr Y Akao

H. Predictive and Optimised Life Cycle Management, 2006; Mr S. Asko

I. Products tuned, or "Producten op maat“, 1995; Mr S. Sarlemijn

J. Research Methods for Business Students, 2007; Mr. M. Saunders, P. Lewis & A. Tornhill

Literature

Rijkswaterstaat

24

Thanks


Address of Faculty residence: Asset Management Control Centre Willemsoord 52 C-D, 1781 AS Den Helder

HZ, University of applied sciences

Edisonweg 4 4382 NW Vlissingen

Documents

Service Life Predictionacademy.amccentre.nl/thesis/presentatie/Presentation_W_Koops.pdf · (Wikipedia) Definitions obsolescence 5 Early 20th century Service Life Prediction 12-3-2012