Shanghai, August 2007 Page 1

GKSS is a member of the Hermann von Helmholtz Association of National Research Centres (HGF e. V.)

Institute for Coastal Research@GKSS

Hans von Storch, director

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 2

Membranes

in Process

Technology

Lightweight Structures

for Transportation

and Energy Industries

Research for

Managing the

Coastal Zone

Coastal Research Material Science Chemistry

We performfundamental and applied research

In the Institutes for:

GKSS Research Program – today

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 3

Institute for Coastal Researchof GKSS Research Center

Key research questions addressed by the GKSS coastal research program are

• How is global change affecting the coastal system?

• What is the present state and present change of the coastal zone?

• How can we reliably and cost-effectively monitor coastal processes?

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 4

Coasts are …

• multi-dimensional environments (geophysical, ecological, social, economic), the character and utilization of which are shaped by the relationship to the sea.

• a subsystem of the global Earth System. As such, a comprehensive view and analysis is only possible using an Earth System modeling approach.

• under the influences of global changes in the environmental system (climate change) and in the social system (globalization; aestheticization).

• key regions for global ecosystems• significant factors of global cycles of matter

(sources; temporary storage)

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 5

climate variability

and change

Coastal areas are made up of• coastal sea• coastal land• catchment

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 6

Institutions/Platforms engaged

in GKSS/AWI cooperation

Uni HH

Bremerhaven Geesthacht

FTZ

Uni Bremen

Uni KielHelgoland

Sylt

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 7

1. CoastDat – retrospective and prospective decadal simulations of marine weather – North Sea; also: E Asian coastal regions.

2. North German Climate Office

3. BALTEX Assessment for Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region

Issues briefly touched in the following

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 8

Globale development(NCEP)

Dynamical DownscalingREMO or CLM

Simulation with barotropicmodel of North Sea

Empirical Downscaling

Tide gauge St. Pauli

Cooperation with a variety of governmental agencies and with a number of private companies

Regional and local conditions – in the recent past and next

century

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 9

TRIM 3dwater level and barotropic currents

21.02.1993 12 UTC

grid size between about 100 m and 5km

grid size about 5 x 5 km

grid size about 50 x 50 km

SN-REMO wind speed and direction 21.02.1993 12 UTC

WAM sig. wave height and direction

21.02.1993 12 UTC

NCEP Global Reanalyses 1958 - 2002IPCC A2 Global Warming Scenario, 2070 - 2100 ≈ 200km

TRIM 3d storm surge statistics change in high percentiles, A2

scenario 2070-2100

WAM sig. wave height trend in severe events

SN-REMO storm count trend 1958-2002

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 10

The CoastDat-effort at the Institute for Coastal Research@GKSS

Long-term, high-resolution reconstuctions (50 years) of present and recent developments of weather related phenomena in coastal regions as well as scenarios of future developments (100 years) Northeast Atlantic and northern Europe “Standard” model systems (“frozen”) Assessment of changes in storms, ocean waves, storm surges, currents and regional transport of anthropogenic substances. Data freely available.

Applications many authorities with responsibilities for different aspects of the German coasts economic applications by engineering companies (off-shore wind potentials and

risks) and shipbuilding companyPublic information

www.coastdat.de

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 11

A comparative study on the retrospective simulation of typhoon seasons in SE Asia

• As a prerequisite to derive and assess changing statistics of typhoon formation in SE Asia, simulation models should demonstrate their capability to simulate year-to-year variations of typhoon statistics in SE Asia during the past 40-50 years.

• During this period, NCEP and ERA have constructed global-reanalyses describing the large scale atmospheric state with some fidelity, but spatial details are not that well described. Therefore regional atmospheric models, forced with global re-analyses, may be a suitable tool to reconstruct the past decades’ variability.

• A number of partners have agreed on a comparative study, namely to run their different regional atmospheric models for the storm-rich season of 1994 and the storm-poor season of 1998. The focus of the analysis will be on the number of storms, their tracks and their core pressure developments as well as on the mean circulation.

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 12

Participating modelling groups

• GKSS, Dr. Frauke Feser, Geesthacht, Germany, with the spectrally nudged model CLM.

• National Taiwan University, Prof. Ming-Chin Wu, Taipei, Taiwan, with RSM• National Central University, Prof. C. Sui, Jung-Li, Taiwan, with the MM5

model• Seoul National University, Prof Dong-Kyou Lee, Seoul, S Korea, with the

model REG-CM2 and a bogus-technique to introduce typhoons

Data for atmospheric conditions will be helped with by• Central Weather Bureau, Dr. Mong-Ming Lu, Taipei, Taiwan• Prof Tim Li, IPRC, with his model-based analysis of the 2004-season. 

Since analyses of wind on the sea are of limited reliability, a validation using derived wave conditions may be helpful. An agreement has been made that National Cheng Kung University, Prof. Chia Chuen Kao, Tainan, Taiwan will use the wind and pressure output of the regional models to run an ocean wave model and compare the output to ocean wave observations.

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 13

North German Climate Office@GKSS

An institution set up to enable communication between science and stakeholders

• that is: making sure that science understands the questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders

• that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific assessments and their limits.

Typical stakeholders: Coastal defense, agriculture, off-shore activities (energy), tourism, water management, fisheries, urban planning

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 14

BALTEX Assessment for Climate Change in the Baltic

Sea Region

Shanghai, August 2007

… of the BACC assessment was to provide the scientific community and the public with an assessment of ongoing and future climate change in the Baltic Sea region. This was done by reviewing published scientific knowledge about climate change in the Baltic Sea region.

An important element was the comparison with the historical past (until about 1800) to provide a framework for the severity and unusualness of the change.

Also changes in environmental systems, due to climate change, were assessed – such as hydrological regimes and ecosystems.

BACC: The purpose …

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 16

BACC report: Chapters

1. Introduction and Policy Advise

2.Past and Current Climate Change

3.Projections of Future Climate Change

4.Climate-related Change in Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems

5.Climate-related Change in Marine Ecosystems

6.Annexes

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 17

BACC results: In short … Presently a warming is going on in the Baltic Sea region. BACC considers it plausible that this warming is at least

partly related to anthropogenic factors. So far, and in the next few decades, the signal is limited

to temperature and directly related variables, such as ice conditions.

Later, changes in the water cycle are expected to become obvious.

This regional warming will have a variety of effects on terrestrial and marine ecosystems – some predictable such as the changes in the phenology others so far hardly predictable.

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 18

BACC: HELCOM analysis

• BACC report officially accepted by HELCOM board as basis for further for analysis in March 2007.

• Based upon the BACC review HELCOM has prepared its own analysis of recent, ongoing and future climate change in the Baltic Sea region – and the implications for environmental politics.

• Problem: tight timeline at HELCOM vs. quality control at BACC.

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 19

Climate Research done at:• Institute for Oceanography:

global ocean re-analysis; regional oceanography.

• Institute for Meteorology; dynamical meteorology, predictability (incl. typhoons); urban climate.

• and other institutes, dealing with soils, forests, marine ecosystems and economy.

Geoscience Institutes@Hamburg University

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 20

Shanghai, August 2007 Page 21

Climate science in Hamburg, GermanyA series of world-class scientific institutions in Hamburg:

• the Max-Planck Institute of Meteorology,

• the geosciences institutes of Hamburg University and

• the Institute for Coastal Research of the federal research laboratory GKSS.

• and their joint “daughter”, the German Climate Computer Center

plus a series of (partly) climate related service and application institutions, among others:

Office for Marine Weather (DWD), the Federal Waterways Engineering,Research Institute (BAW), the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH)and the municipal Hamburg Port Authority (HPA)