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8/3/2019 Simplex Infrastructures Result Updated
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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY12 3QFY11 2QFY12 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq)
Net sales 1,594.3 1,166.7 1,322.0 36.7 20.6
Operating profit 127.4 107.6 119.0 18.4 7.0
Net profit 18.0 23.2 17.9 (22.3) 0.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
For 3QFY2012, Simplex Infra’s (Simplex) numbers came above our and street’s
expectations on the revenue and earnings front and marginally lower at the
EBITDAM level. At the end of the quarter, the company’s order book stood at
` 14,442cr (2.9x FY2011 revenue). Order inflow for the quarter stood at
` 1,018cr, with the company having L1 orders worth ` 2,565cr. We are revising
our estimates for FY2012 and FY2013 upwards owing to better-than-expected
performance during the quarter. We maintain our Buy view on the stock.
Healthy set of numbers: On the top-line front, Simplex reported robust growth of
36.7% yoy to ` 1,594cr, higher than our estimate of ` 1,348cr (consensus
` 1,145cr). This performance was on account of 40% and 15% yoy growth in the
domestic and overseas segments, respectively. EBITDAM dipped by 120bp yoy to
8.0% for the quarter, marginally lower than our estimate of 8.6%. Interest cost
came in at ` 55.0cr, reporting a jump of 52.0% yoy/7.6% qoq and in-line with
our estimate of ` 54.3cr. PAT declined by 22.3% yoy to ` 18.0cr, above our
estimate of ` 13.6cr. Better-than-expected bottom-line performance was due to
robust revenue growth during the quarter.
Outlook and valuation: Prior to 2QFY2012, Simplex’s performance was affected
by slowdown on the execution front, stretched working capital and subdued
order inflow. However, in the past two quarters, Simplex’s performance has
improved, with execution and order inflow picking up along with improvement
on the working capital front (during 3QFY2012). Hence, we have revised our
estimates upwards for FY2012 and FY2013. Our revised target price for the
stock is `261 (`233), based on 9x FY2013E earnings, implying an upside of
30.9%. Hence, we recommend Buy on the stock.
Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Net Sales (incl op. income) 4,564 4,889 5,961 6,732
% chg (3.1) 7.1 21.9 12.9
Adj. Net Profit 127.1 106.7 119.0 144.3
% chg 9.2 (16.1) 11.5 21.3
FDEPS (`) 25.6 21.5 24.0 29.1
EBITDA Margin (%) 10.0 9.8 9.4 9.5
P/E (x) 7.8 9.3 8.3 6.9
RoAE (%) 13.5 10.3 10.4 11.4
RoACE (%) 13.0 11.8 11.6 11.9P/BV (x) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7
EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.8 5.3 5.6 4.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUYCMP ` 200
Target Price ` 261
Investment Period 12 Months
Stock Info
Sector
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 55.0
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 25.2
FII / NRIs / OCBs 14.7
Indian Public / Others 5.2
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 4.3 (1.9) 91.8
Simplex (1.4) (40.4) 33.2
Face Value ( ` )
BSE SensexNifty
Reuters Code
988
0.4
366/157
3,615
Infrastructure
Avg. Daily Volume
Market Cap ( ` cr)
Beta
52 Week High / Low
2
17,8495,416
SINF.BO
SINF@IN
Shailesh Kanani
022-39357800 Ext: 6829
Nitin Arora
022-39357800 Ext: 6842
Simplex Infrastructures
Performance Highlights
3QFY2012 Result Update | Infrastructure
February 14, 2012
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Simplex Infra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
February 14, 2012 2
Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY12 3QFY11 2QFY12 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq) 9MFY12 9MFY11 % chg
Net Sales 1,594 1,167 1,322 36.7 20.6 4,177 3,395 6.9
Total Expenditure 1,467 1,059 1,203 38.5 21.9 3,811 3,062 7.0Operating Profit 127 108 119 18.4 7.0 367 333 5.9
OPM (%) 8.0 9.2 9.0 (120)bp (100)bp 9 10 (100)bp
Interest 55 36 51 52.0 7.6 156 94 17.9
Depreciation 49 40 44 20.9 10.2135 119 5.7
Non Operating Income 3 3 2 (2.0) 38.9 13 7 31.7
Nonrecurring items - - - - - - - -
Profit Before tax 27 34 26 (22.0) 3.1 88 128 0.8
Tax 9 11 8 (21.4) 8.1 28 41 4.0
Net Profit before MI 18 23 18 (22.3) 0.9 60 86 (1.1)
PAT (%) 1.1 2.0 1.4 - - 1.4 2.5 -
Minority Interest (MI) - - - - - - - -
Net Profit after MI 18 23 18 (22.3) 0.9 60 86 (1.5)
Adj. PAT (%) 1.1 2.0 1.4 - - 1.4 2.5 -
Adj. FDEPS 3.6 4.7 3.6 (22.3) 0.9 12.1 17.4 (1.5)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 3QFY2012 Actual vs. Estimates
(` cr) Estimates Actual Variation (%)
Net Sales 1,348.4 1594.3 18.2
EBITDA 116.4 127.4 9.4
EBITDAM (%) 8.6 8.0 (60)bp
Interest and Financial Charges 54.3 55.0 1.3
PAT 13.6 18.0 32.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Robust top-line growth
On the top-line front, Simplex reported robust growth of 36.7% yoy to ` 1,594cr,
higher than our estimate of ` 1,348cr (consensus ` 1,145cr). This better-than-
expected performance was on account of 40% and 15% yoy growth in the
domestic and overseas segments, respectively. At the end of the quarter, the
company’s order book stood at ` 14,442cr (2.9x FY2011 revenue). Order inflow
for the quarter stood at ` 1,018cr, down 47.8% qoq and 52.2% yoy. As per
management, the infrastructure, building and power segments have witnessed
good order inflow activity, whereas the industrial segment has seen poor order
awarding activity. Further, for FY2012, management expects to achieve order
inflow of ~ ` 7,000cr ( ` 6,000cr already achieved) and accordingly we are factoring
in order inflow of ` 7,696cr and ` 8,194cr for FY2012 and FY2013, respectively.
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Simplex Infra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
February 14, 2012 4
Exhibit 7: Order inflow for 3QFY12 – Segment wise (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: Order backlog – Segment wise (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Outlook and valuation
Prior to 2QFY2012, Simplex’s performance was affected by slowdown the on
execution front, stretched working capital and subdued order inflow. However, in
the past two quarters, Simplex’s performance has improved, with execution and
order inflow picking up along with improvement on the working capital front
(during 3QFY2012). Hence, we have revised our estimates upwards for FY2012
and FY2013. Our revised target price for the stock is `261 (`233), based on 9x
FY2013E earnings, implying an upside of 30.9%. Hence, we recommend Buy on
the stock.
Exhibit 9: Historical one-year forward PE band
Source: Company, Angel Research
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1 4 - F e b - 0 5
1 4 - M a y - 0 5
1 4 - A u g - 0 5
1 4 - N o v - 0 5
1 4 - F e b - 0 6
1 4 - M a y - 0 6
1 4 - A u g - 0 6
1 4 - N o v - 0 6
1 4 - F e b - 0 7
1 4 - M a y - 0 7
1 4 - A u g - 0 7
1 4 - N o v - 0 7
1 4 - F e b - 0 8
1 4 - M a y - 0 8
1 4 - A u g - 0 8
1 4 - N o v - 0 8
1 4 - F e b - 0 9
1 4 - M a y - 0 9
1 4 - A u g - 0 9
1 4 - N o v - 0 9
1 4 - F e b - 1 0
1 4 - M a y - 1 0
1 4 - A u g - 1 0
1 4 - N o v - 1 0
1 4 - F e b - 1 1
1 4 - M a y - 1 1
1 4 - A u g - 1 1
1 4 - N o v - 1 1
1 4 - F e b - 1 2
P/E 7YEAR AVG 5YEAR AVG 3YEAR AVG
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Simplex Infra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
February 14, 2012 5
Exhibit 10: Change in estimates
FY2012E FY2013E
Earlier estimates Revised estimates Variation (%) Earlier estimates Revised estimates Variation (%)
Revenues ( ` cr) 5,561.7 5,960.5 7.2 6,485 6,732 3.8
EBITDA Margins (%) 9.4 9.4 - 9.5 9.5 -
PAT ( ` cr) 94.0 119.0 26.6 128.6 144.3 12.2
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 11: Key assumptions
(` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Order Inflow 2,180 6,694 5,786 5,996 8,382 7,696 8,194
Revenues 1,708 2,808 4,713 4,564 4,889 5,961 6,732
Order Backlog (Y/E) 5,100 8,985 10,059 11,491 15,117 16,852 18,315
OB to Sales ratio (x) 3.0 3.2 2.1 2.5 3.1 2.8 2.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 12: Angel EPS forecast vs. consensus
Angel Forecast Bloomberg Consensus Variation (%)
FY2012E 24.0 20.3 (15.3)
FY2013E 29.1 26.7 (8.3)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment argument
Diversified play
Simplex is one of the oldest infrastructure companies in India (over eight decades
of work log). Since inception, the company has been involved in the different
segments of the infrastructure sector, from piling (1924) to power (1960), to roads,
railways and bridges (1980), and the real estate business (2007). The company
has executed ~2,400 projects and is currently involved in >150 ongoing projects
in India and abroad. This indicates the company's execution capabilities, apart
from qualifying it to successfully execute complex and numerous projects on time.
The company is also well spread geographically, with a presence in theMiddle-Eastern countries of Qatar, Oman, Dubai and Abu Dhabi and now
venturing in newer territories such as Bangladesh. In terms of its client profile,
Simplex has a healthy mix of government and private sector projects. This
successful diversification has not only provided the company the experience of
executing different and complex projects but has also qualified it to bid for bigger
ticket-size projects going ahead.
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Simplex Infra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
February 14, 2012 6
Exhibit 13: Recommendation summary
Company CMP TP Rating Top-line (` cr) EPS (`) Adj. P/E (x) OB/
FY11 FY12E FY13E CAGR (%) FY11 FY12E FY13E CAGR (%) FY11 FY12E FY13E Sales (x)
ABL 195 245 Buy 1,302 1,648 1,853 19.3 19.2 21.7 25.4 15.2 10.2 9.0 7.7 4.2CCCL 18 17 Reduce 2,199 2,258 2,646 9.7 2.5 (1.5) 2.4 (3.6) 7.1 - 7.7 2.7
HCC 29 - Neutral 4,093 3,915 4,633 6.4 1.2 (3.1) 0.6 (25.8) 24.9 - 45.3 4.0
IRB Infra 176 182 Neutral 2,438 3,176 3,781 24.5 13.6 14.2 13.1 (2.0) 12.9 12.5 13.5 -
ITNL 211 235 Accu. 4,049 5,178 6,619 27.9 22.3 22.9 26.0 7.8 9.4 9.2 8.1 5.2
IVRCL 61 - Neutral 5,651 5,426 6,458 6.9 5.9 3.4 4.6 (11.5) 10.4 18.1 13.3 4.5
JP Assoc. 79 88 Accu. 13,832 13,763 16,017 7.6 5.5 2.7 4.2 (12.6) 14.5 29.1 18.9 -
L&T 1,379 1,608 Buy 43,905 53,779 60,258 17.2 54.3 63.7 70.9 14.2 25.4 21.7 19.5 3.3
Madhucon 67 77 Buy 1,816 1,952 2,503 17.4 5.6 4.4 4.7 (8.1) 12.0 15.1 14.2 3.8
NCC 62 61 Neutral 5,074 4,946 5,790 6.8 6.4 1.4 3.5 (26.1) 9.8 45.2 17.9 4.3
Patel Engg 117 - Neutral 3,476 3,573 3,609 1.9 17.6 14.9 14.8 (8.3) 6.6 7.8 7.9 2.7
Punj Lloyd 62 - Neutral 7,850 10,147 10,592 16.2 (5.4) 3.5 2.9 - - 17.5 21.2 3.6
Sadbhav 142 157 Accu. 2,209 2,602 2,585 8.2 8.0 9.3 9.2 7.3 17.8 15.3 15.4 2.7
Simplex In. 200 261 Buy 4,889 5,961 6,732 17.3 21.5 24.0 29.1 16.3 9.3 8.3 6.9 2.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 14: SOTP breakup
Company Core Const. Real Estate Road BOT Invst. In Subsidiaries Others Total
` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` ABL 104 42 - - 141 58 - - - - 245
CCCL 17100
--
--
--
--
17HCC 4 12 12 37 16 51 - - - - 32
IRB Infra 116 64 - - 61 34 4 2 - 182
ITNL 59 25 - - 152 65 - - 25 10 235
IVRCL 37 66 - - - - 19 34 - - 56
JP Assoc. 31 35 24 27 - - - - 33 37 88
L&T 1,276 79 - - - - 332 21 - - 1,608
Madhucon 23 30 2 3 52 68 - - - 77
NCC 29 48 2 3 8 14 - - 22 35 61
Patel Engg 55 51 17 16 16 15 - - 19 18 106
Punj Lloyd 71 100 - - - - - - - - 71
Sadbhav 83 53 - - 75 47 - - - - 157
Simplex In. 261 100 - - - - - - - - 261
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Simplex Infra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
February 14, 2012 7
Profit & loss statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Net Sales 2,808 4,696 4,552 4,875 5,947 6,718
Other operating income - 16 12 14 14 14Total operating income 2,808 4,713 4,564 4,889 5,961 6,732
% chg 64.4 67.8 (3.1) 7.1 21.9 12.9
Total Expenditure 2,545 4,309 4,110 4,412 5,403 6,095
Net Raw Materials 1,275 2,149 1,856 1,945 2,396 2,693
Other Mfg costs 279 483 504 617 657 740
Personnel 839 1,413 1,472 1,571 2,011 2,275
Other 152 263 278 279 339 386
EBITDA 264 404 454 477 557 637
% chg 65.6 53.2 12.5 5.1 16.8 14.2
(% of Net Sales) 9.4 8.6 10.0 9.8 9.4 9.5
Depreciation& Amortisation 64 132 157 167 184 206
EBIT 199 272 297 310 373 431
% chg 66.0 36.4 9.2 4.6 20.2 15.6
(% of Net Sales) 7.1 5.8 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.4
Interest & other Charges 109 151 122 148 235 255
Other Inc (incl pft from Ass/JV) 37 46 26 38 40 40
(% of PBT) 28.8 27.5 13.0 18.8 22.2 18.5
Recurring PBT 127 166 201 200 178 216
% chg 81.1 30.8 20.6 (0.1) (11.1) 21.3
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - (7) - (18) - -
PBT (reported) 127 173 201 218 178 216
Tax 37 49 71 92 58 70
(% of PBT) 29.1 28.3 35.6 42.3 32.4 32.4
PAT (reported) 90 124 129 126 120 146
Less: Minority interest (MI) - 0.8 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.6
Prior period items - - - - - -
PAT after MI (reported) 90 123 127 125 119 144
ADJ. PAT 90 116 127 107 119 144
% chg 67.7 29.3 9.2 (16.1) 11.5 21.3
(% of Net Sales) 3.2 2.5 2.8 2.2 2.0 2.1
Basic EPS (`) (Reported) 18.2 24.9 25.6 25.1 24.0 29.1Fully Diluted EPS (̀ ) (Diluted) 18.1 23.5 25.6 21.5 24.0 29.1
% chg 67.7 29.3 9.2 (16.1) 11.5 21.3
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Simplex Infra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
February 14, 2012 8
Balance sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 10 10 10 10 10 10Preference Capital - - - - - -
Reserves & Surplus 743 899 968 1,078 1,185 1,318
Shareholder’s Funds 753 909 978 1,088 1,195 1,328
Minority Interest - 1 5 6 6 6
Total Loans 749 1,220 1,302 1,661 2,216 2,220
Deferred Tax Liability 37 58 88 138 138 138
Total Liabilities 1,540 2,189 2,374 2,893 3,555 3,693
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 757 1,219 1,277 1,509 1,684 1,859
Less: Acc. Depreciation 127 208 289 385 495 616
Net Block 629 1,011 988 1,123 1,189 1,243
Capital Work-in-Progress 24 14 19 27 30 33
Investments 10 2 3 23 78 183
Current Assets 2,152 2,946 3,125 3,767 4,705 5,183
Inventories 474 679 671 811 1,061 1,226
Sundry Debtors 1,150 1,682 1,806 2,298 2,851 2,899
Cash 123 119 110 108 76 213
Loans & Advances 321 338 398 405 540 646
Other 83 127 140 145 176 199
Current liabilities 1,276 1,784 1,760 2,048 2,447 2,949
Net Current Assets 876 1,162 1,364 1,719 2,258 2,233
Misc. Exp. not written off - - - - - -
Total Assets 1,540 2,189 2,374 2,893 3,555 3,693
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Simplex Infra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
February 14, 2012 9
Cash flow statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Profit before tax (excluding MI) 127 173 201 217 177 214
Depreciation 37 79 92 96 109 121Change in Working Capital 181 358 314 357 571 (161)
Less: Other income 37 46 26 38 40 40
Direct taxes paid 23 30 46 16 58 70
Cash Flow from Operations (76) (181) (93) (97) (382) 387
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (328) (408) (118) (241) (178) (178)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (5) 8 (1) (20) (55) (105)
Other income 37 46 26 38 40 40
Cash Flow from Investing (296) (355) (93) (223) (193) (243)
Issue of Equity 429 - - - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans 62 444 107 358 555 5
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 8 12 12 11 12 12
Others (31) 100 82 (29) - -
Cash Flow from Financing 452 532 177 318 543 (7)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 81 (4) (9) (2) (32) 137
Opening Cash balances 42 123 119 110 108 76
Closing Cash balances 123 119 110 108 76 213
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Simplex Infra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
February 14, 2012 10
Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 11.0 8.5 7.8 9.3 8.3 6.9P/CEPS 7.8 5.1 4.5 4.9 4.3 3.7
P/BV 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7
Dividend yield (%) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
EV/Sales 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
EV/EBITDA 6.1 5.2 4.8 5.3 5.6 4.7
EV / Total Assets 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8
Order Book to Sales 3.2 2.1 2.5 3.1 2.8 2.7
Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 18.2 24.9 25.6 25.1 24.0 29.1
EPS (fully diluted) 18.1 23.5 25.6 21.5 24.0 29.1
Cash EPS 25.6 39.3 44.2 40.9 46.0 53.4
DPS 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Book Value 152 183 197 219 241 267
DuPont Analysis
EBIT margin 7.1 5.8 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.4
Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
Asset turnover (x) 2.4 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9
ROIC (Post-tax) 12.0 11.2 8.8 7.1 8.0 8.4
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 10.7 11.0 6.2 5.8 8.2 7.8
Leverage (x) 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.6
Operating ROE 13.5 11.4 11.9 8.9 7.8 9.4
Returns (%)
ROACE (Pre-tax) 15.8 14.6 13.0 11.8 11.6 11.9
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 16.9 15.6 13.7 12.3 11.9 12.4
ROAE 17.5 14.0 13.5 10.3 10.4 11.4
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 4.7 4.8 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.8
Inventory / Sales (days) 49 45 54 55 57 62
Receivables (days) 130 110 139 153 158 156
Payables (days) 130 116 141 141 137 145
Wcap cycle (ex-cash) (days) 86 70 92 107 116 114Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.5
Net debt to EBITDA 2.4 2.7 2.6 3.3 3.8 3.2
Interest Coverage 1.8 1.8 2.4 2.1 1.6 1.7
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Simplex Infra | 3QFY2012 Result Update
February 14, 2012 11
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should makesuch investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
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Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, pleaserefer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited andits affiliates ma have investment ositions in the stocks recommended in this re ort.
Disclosure of Interest Statement Simplex Infra
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)