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Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major
Crops Areas
Update prepared byClimate Prediction Center / NCEP
3 January 2011
For Real-time information:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/
Outline
• Highlights
• ENSO Current Status
• MJO Current Status
• Monsoons Current Status
• Southern Hemisphere Circulation
• Rainfall & Temperature Patterns
• NCEP/GFS Model Forecast
• Forecast Verification
Australia: Several weeks of persistent and very heavy tropical rainfall across Queensland has caused extensive flooding and severe damage to cities, towns, and croplands. The GFS forecasts a continuation of the abnormal rainfall pattern in Queensland, with increased rainfall across parts of western Australia due to an approaching tropical disturbance.
Southern Africa: Scattered showers and thunderstorms brought generally above average accumulations to southern Africa’s corn growing regions. The GFS forecasts a continuation of favorable showers and thunderstorms across southern Africa.
South America: Heavy rainfall fell across a swath from Mato Grosso through Minas Gerais, while below average rainfall was observed across southern Brazil and northern and eastern Argentina. The GFS forecasts continued widespread rainfall across central Brazil, with less rainfall to the east. Increased rainfall is expected across Argentina, particularly across southern farmlands.
Highlights
ENSO Current Status
For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
During the last 4-weeks (5 Dec 2010 – 1 Jan 2011), SSTs were at least 1.0°C below average between 160°E and the South American coast, with departures more than 2.0°C below average in some areas.
General Summary:
• La Niña is present across the equatorial Pacific.
• Negative sea surface temperature anomalies persist across much of the Pacific Ocean.
• La Niña is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.
MJO Current Status
The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes
The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO
Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.
Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength
Line colors distinguish different months
MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast
RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days
light gray shading: 90% of forecasts
dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts
Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members
Green Line – Ensemble Mean
For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
The MJO signal became increasingly incoherent during the previous week.
The operational GFS and the GEFS ensemble mean forecasts indicate a continued incoherent MJO signal during the upcoming two weeks.
Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status
South America Southern Africa Australia
December rainfall improved moisture levels across most of southern Africa, but pockets of persistent rainfall deficits remain across portions of South Africa’s maize triangle and far northern Mozambique.
For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/
Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days
Below average precipitation was observed across much of South America, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, northeastern Argentina, and west-central Brazil. Three-month precipitation across eastern Brazil remained near to above average.
Near- to above-average rainfall was observed across most of Australia during the previous 90 days, with much above average rainfall along Queensland’s eastern coast.
Monsoon Season: NOV-APR
Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR
Monsoon Season: NOV-APR
Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days
Southern Hemisphere Circulation200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days
• During 26 Dec 2010 – 1 Jan 2011, easterly flow across Australia promoted well above average temperatures in the west, while persistent onshore transport of tropical moisture in Queensland aggravated the severe flooding situation (note the low-level below average temperature anomalies across northeastern Australia are due to cloud cover, see also the following slide).
Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations.
Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.
A
Southern Hemisphere Circulation
Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions.
Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions.
Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days
• During 26 Dec 2010 – 1 Jan 2011, strong anomalous rising motion (negative omega) persisted across northern Australia and Queensland, promoting continued torrential rainfall and aggravating the severe flooding situation. Areas of negative omega observed across parts of central and eastern Brazil and southern Africa were also associated with increased thunderstorm activity.
CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.
Australia
• Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns• Temperature Patterns• GFS Forecast
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days
Total Anomaly
During the last 7 days, heavy rainfall continued across northern Australia’s monsoon regions, as well as across northern and east central Queensland, aggravating the severe flooding situation.
Queensland Flooding• More than 200,000 people afflicted by flood waters, with one declared fatality.•Australian officials report that half of Queensland’s land area is affected by floodwaters.•22 towns/cities in Queensland have been inundated by floods, caused by several weeks of persistent, heavy rainfall.
Source: Reuters (MSNBC)
Source: BOM
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days
Total Anomaly
During the previous 15 days, much above average rainfall persisted across northern Australia and much of Queensland, causing extensive flooding.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days
Total Anomaly
During the previous 30 days, much above average rainfall was observed across northern Australia and Queensland, while a tropical disturbance brought heavy rainfall early in the period to coastal Western Australia.
Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days
• 30-day rainfall time series depict the heavy early December rains across southern Australia followed by drier weather, the persistent heavy rainfall across Queensland, and the recent increase in rainfall across southwestern Australia.
Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
•Hot weather overspread western and southern Australia, while cloud cover and heavy rainfall promoted below average high temperatures across Queensland and Northern Territory.
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 3 Jan 2011 – Days 1-7
For Days 1-7 (3 – 9 Jan 2011), heavy rainfall is expected to continue across much of Queensland, continuing to aggravate the flooding situation. A new tropical disturbance is forecast to bring areas of rainfall to coastal Western Australia during the upcoming week.
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 3 Jan 2011 – Days 8-14
For Days 8-14 (10 – 16 Jan 2011), widespread heavy rainfall is forecasted to return to northern Australia and persist in Queensland.
Southern Africa
• Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns• Temperature Patterns• GFS Forecast
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days
Total Anomaly
• Scattered showers and thunderstorms brought above average accumulations to much of South Africa’s corn belt region. Below average rainfall was observed across far northern South Africa and Mozambique.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days
Total Anomaly
During the last 15 days, near to locally above average rainfall was observed across South Africa, particularly across the south-central maize triangle.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days
Total Anomaly
During the last 30 days, above average rainfall was observed across the croplands of southern Africa.
Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days
• 30-day rainfall time series depict the favorable moisture observed across most of southern Africa during the previous three weeks.
Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
Near average temperatures were observed across southern Africa during the previous week, with no stressful heat across South Africa’s maize triangle.
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 3 Jan 2011 – Days 1-7
For Days 1-7 (3 – 9 Jan 2010), scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue across southern Africa, including South Africa’s corn belt region.
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 3 Jan 2011 – Days 8-14
For Days 8-14 (10 – 16 Jan 2011), lingering showers are expected across southern Africa as heavier rain develops to the north and in Mozambique.
Brazil & Argentina
• Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns• Temperature Patterns• GFS Forecast
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days
Total
Argentina
Brazil
Anomaly• Widespread heavy thunderstorms overspread corn and soybean croplands from Mato Grosso eastward into Minas Gerais, while dry weather overspread southern Brazil.
•Below average rainfall was observed across central and eastern Argentina, while above-average rainfall fell across the more arid pasturelands of northwestern Argentina.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days
Total
Argentina
Brazil
Anomaly• Despite a recent uptick in thunderstorm activity across central and eastern Brazil, two week rainfall totals were generally below average outside of pockets of Goias and Minas Gerais.
•Generally below average rainfall was observed across Argentina’s farmlands, with areas of above average rainfall observed in the north central states.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days
Total
Argentina
Brazil
Anomaly• Below average monsoon rains were observed across central Brazil, with heavier rain observed along the eastern coastline and portions of southern Brazil.
•Rainfall accumulations across most of Argentina were below average during the 30 day period.
Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days
• Time series depict the generally below average rainfall across central South America during the previous 30 days, despite the recent uptick in rainfall across central Brazil. Note also the recent dryness across southern Brazil (bottom right panel), following heavier rainfall in early December.
Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
Near to above average temperatures were observed throughout Brazil during the previous week.
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC)
Near to above average temperatures were observed across Argentina during the previous week, with widespread highs topping 35 deg C.
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 3 Jan 2011 – Days 1-7
• For Days 1-7 (3 – 9 Jan 2011), widepsread rainfall is expected to continue across central Brazil, though accumulations in some areas, particularly towards the east, are expected to be below average. Increased rainfall is possible across Argentina, with lcoally heavy rains across Buenos Aires and La Pampa.
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 3 Jan 2011 – Days 8-14
• For Days 8-14 (10 – 16 Jan 2011) locally heavy rainfall is possible across north central Brazil, with above average precipitation in the southeast contrasting with below average rainfall in eastern Brazil. Drier weather is expected to return to Argentina.
USDA Crop Information
Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP
Crop Calendars by Month
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars
