Stone’s Problems: Stone’s Problems: CausesCauses

By: Omar AbdelghanyBy: Omar Abdelghany Farida ReyesFarida Reyes Mandy ReynoldsMandy Reynolds Monica SchlaichMonica Schlaich Meghann Meghann

ShannonShannon

Classic and Erred Policy Classic and Erred Policy ThinkingThinking

► Men do not think they know a thing till they Men do not think they know a thing till they have grasped the “why” of it (which is to have grasped the “why” of it (which is to grasp it’s primary cause).” Aristotle’s grasp it’s primary cause).” Aristotle’s Physica, Book IIPhysica, Book II

► Problems:Problems: We think we have defined a problem when we We think we have defined a problem when we

have described it’s causes.have described it’s causes. Policy debate is dominated by the notion that Policy debate is dominated by the notion that

problems are solved by finding root causes, and problems are solved by finding root causes, and treating symptoms.treating symptoms.

Analysis of causes is scarcely mentioned in policy Analysis of causes is scarcely mentioned in policy analysis textbooks.analysis textbooks.

Conceptualizing CausesConceptualizing Causes

► When a problem is defined by causes, the When a problem is defined by causes, the conception of “cause” being used states:conception of “cause” being used states: Every problem has a deep or primary cause.Every problem has a deep or primary cause. Cause can be found if only one looks hard and Cause can be found if only one looks hard and

carefully.carefully. Causes are objective, and in principle, can be Causes are objective, and in principle, can be

proven by scientific research.proven by scientific research.

► Ultimately with this conception, the true Ultimately with this conception, the true cause is to blame, and to be eliminated, cause is to blame, and to be eliminated, reduced, or neutralized by policy.reduced, or neutralized by policy.

Causal Reasoning in the Causal Reasoning in the PolisPolis

► In politics:In politics: We use cause not only to understand, but to We use cause not only to understand, but to

assign responsibility for problems.assign responsibility for problems. We prevent people from causing the problem.We prevent people from causing the problem. Problem causers are made to compensate other Problem causers are made to compensate other

people for bearing the problem.people for bearing the problem. Causers are punished for causing suffering.Causers are punished for causing suffering.

► To identify a cause in the polis is to place To identify a cause in the polis is to place burdens on one set of people instead of burdens on one set of people instead of another.another.

Two Primary Frameworks for Two Primary Frameworks for Interpreting the World: The Interpreting the World: The

Natural & The Social.Natural & The Social.► In the Natural World:In the Natural World:

We understand occurrences as undirected, We understand occurrences as undirected, unanimated, and purely physical.unanimated, and purely physical.

Nature is the realm of fate and accident.Nature is the realm of fate and accident. The best we can do is to mitigate effects.The best we can do is to mitigate effects.

► There are natural determinants:There are natural determinants: The clash of a cold and warm front causes a The clash of a cold and warm front causes a

storm.storm.► We believe we have an adequate We believe we have an adequate

understanding of natural causation when we understanding of natural causation when we can describe the sequence of events by can describe the sequence of events by which one thing leads to another.which one thing leads to another.

Two Primary Frameworks for Two Primary Frameworks for Interpreting the World: The Interpreting the World: The

Natural & The Social.Natural & The Social.► In the Social World:In the Social World:

Events are understood to be the result of will.Events are understood to be the result of will. Society is the realm of control and intent.Society is the realm of control and intent.

► We believe we have an adequate understanding We believe we have an adequate understanding of social causation when we can identify the of social causation when we can identify the purposes or motives of a person or group and link purposes or motives of a person or group and link those purposes to their actions.those purposes to their actions.

Because causation in the social sphere is related to Because causation in the social sphere is related to purpose we believe that influence works.purpose we believe that influence works.

► FlatteringFlattering► BribingBribing► ThreateningThreatening

Our Purposeful Actions May Our Purposeful Actions May Have Unintended Have Unintended

ConsequencesConsequences► This is why in policy and politics, there is a crucial distinction This is why in policy and politics, there is a crucial distinction

between:between: Actions that have purpose, will, and motivation and those that Actions that have purpose, will, and motivation and those that

do not.do not. Effects that are intended and those that are not.Effects that are intended and those that are not.

Distinctions between action and consequence, and between Distinctions between action and consequence, and between purpose and lack of purpose create a purpose and lack of purpose create a framework for framework for describing causal stories in politics.describing causal stories in politics.

IntendedIntended UnintendedUnintended

UnguidedUnguided

PurposefulPurposeful

ConsequencesActions

Accidental Causes

Intentional Causes

Accidental CausesAccidental Causes► Accidental Causes include:Accidental Causes include:

Natural disasters.Natural disasters. Anything our culture understands as belonging to the realm of Anything our culture understands as belonging to the realm of

fate.fate.► Persons good luck to have bet the right lottery number, or to have Persons good luck to have bet the right lottery number, or to have

bought a stock just before a takeover bid.bought a stock just before a takeover bid.► Some aspects of personal looks and health.Some aspects of personal looks and health.

Machines that run amok.Machines that run amok.► Car breaks that unexpectedly fail, or a CAT scanner that crushes a Car breaks that unexpectedly fail, or a CAT scanner that crushes a

patient.patient.► These are devoid of purpose in either their actions or These are devoid of purpose in either their actions or

consequences. consequences. ► One can not speak of actions here, but only occurrences.One can not speak of actions here, but only occurrences.

► Politically, this is a good place to retreat to if one is being Politically, this is a good place to retreat to if one is being charged with responsibility, because there is no responsibility charged with responsibility, because there is no responsibility in the realm of fate.in the realm of fate.

Intentional CausesIntentional Causes

► When Intentional Causes Yield Bad When Intentional Causes Yield Bad Outcomes:Outcomes: Blame is laid directly at someone’s feet.Blame is laid directly at someone’s feet. It casts someone as willfully or knowingly causing It casts someone as willfully or knowingly causing

harm.harm. Problems are understood as the consequences of Problems are understood as the consequences of

willful human action.willful human action. We have stories of oppressors and victims.We have stories of oppressors and victims.

► When Intentional Causes Result in Good:When Intentional Causes Result in Good: It is the domain we call “rational action”.It is the domain we call “rational action”.

Inadvertent CausesInadvertent Causes

►Found in the lower right section of the Found in the lower right section of the model, it is the unintended model, it is the unintended consequences of willed human actionconsequences of willed human action

►The story of inadvertent cause is a The story of inadvertent cause is a common interpretation of poverty, common interpretation of poverty, malnutrition and diseasemalnutrition and disease

Type of InadvertenceType of Inadvertence

►Carelessness or recklessnessCarelessness or recklessness

►Usually attributed to labor or Usually attributed to labor or management, but includes problems in management, but includes problems in occupational safety and healthoccupational safety and health

►Safety is put on the backburner due to Safety is put on the backburner due to the interests in profitsthe interests in profits

Mechanical CausesMechanical Causes

►Have no will of their own but are Have no will of their own but are designed, programmed, or trained by designed, programmed, or trained by humans to produce certain humans to produce certain consequencesconsequences

►Somebody acts purposefully, but their Somebody acts purposefully, but their will is carried out through other will is carried out through other people, through machines or through people, through machines or through “automatic” social procedures and “automatic” social procedures and routines. routines.

Mechanical CausesMechanical Causes

►The exact nature of human guidance The exact nature of human guidance or control becomes the issue.or control becomes the issue.

►The fight about the cause of a problem The fight about the cause of a problem is a debate usually about whether is a debate usually about whether certain people are acting out of their certain people are acting out of their own will or mechanically carrying out own will or mechanically carrying out the will of othersthe will of others

Causal TheoriesCausal Theories

►The four types of causal theories The four types of causal theories conjure up images of a single action, a conjure up images of a single action, a single actor and a direct result. This single actor and a direct result. This image then remains even when image then remains even when applied to corporations, agencies and applied to corporations, agencies and large groups or to sequences of large groups or to sequences of identifiable actions and results. identifiable actions and results.

Three Models of CauseThree Models of Cause

►Complex systems: Social systems are Complex systems: Social systems are necessary to solve modern problems necessary to solve modern problems are inherently complex. are inherently complex. It is impossible to anticipate all possible It is impossible to anticipate all possible

events and effects, so failure or accident events and effects, so failure or accident is inevitable. is inevitable.

Three Models of Cause Three Models of Cause (Cont’d)(Cont’d)

► Institutional: A social problem is Institutional: A social problem is caused by a web of large, longstanding caused by a web of large, longstanding organizations with ingrained patters of organizations with ingrained patters of behavior. behavior.

►Historical: Social patterns tend to Historical: Social patterns tend to reproduce themselvesreproduce themselves People in power benefit from their social People in power benefit from their social

organization & current resource organization & current resource distribution that keeps them in powerdistribution that keeps them in power

Thus, they maintain their patterns Thus, they maintain their patterns through control over selection of elites & through control over selection of elites & socialization of both elites & nonelitessocialization of both elites & nonelites

Three Models of Cause Three Models of Cause (Cont’d)(Cont’d)

Usefulness of Complex Usefulness of Complex CauseCause

►Not useful because they don’t offer…Not useful because they don’t offer… Single locus of controlSingle locus of control Plausible candidate to take responsibilityPlausible candidate to take responsibility

►Biggest tension between social science Biggest tension between social science & real-world politics & real-world politics → → Social scientist Social scientist tend to see complex causes of social tend to see complex causes of social problems, while in politics, people problems, while in politics, people search for immediate & simple causessearch for immediate & simple causes

Making Causes in the Making Causes in the PolisPolis

► 1995 → William Weld addresses Clinton seeking federal disaster assistance

► Qualifications for federal disaster assistance Show problem is result of uncontrollable forces of

nature

► Contentions: Weld – accident of nature [rising predator

populations] Scientists & other experts – issue of human control

[overfishing]►@ best, inadvertence through ignorance

Struggle for Political Struggle for Political PowerPower

► Table 8.1: Types of Causal TheoriesTable 8.1: Types of Causal Theories

ConsequencesConsequences

ActionsActions IntendedIntended UnintendedUnintended

UnguidedUnguided Mechanical Mechanical CauseCause::

intervening intervening agentsagents

Accidental Accidental CauseCause::

naturenature

PurposefuPurposefull

Intentional Intentional CauseCause::

oppressionoppression

Inadvertent Inadvertent CauseCause::

carelessnesscarelessness

Positions in Struggle for Positions in Struggle for Political PowerPolitical Power

►2 strong positions:2 strong positions: AccidentAccident → → no possibility of human no possibility of human

responsibilityresponsibility IntentIntent → direct control & knowing action → direct control & knowing action

leading to full responsibilityleading to full responsibility►2 weak positions:2 weak positions:

Mechanical CauseMechanical Cause → human control → human control mediated by other mediated by other people/machines/systemspeople/machines/systems

Inadvertent CauseInadvertent Cause → action without full → action without full knowledgeknowledge

Strategies for the Strategies for the AccusedAccused

1)1) Show the problem was accidentally Show the problem was accidentally causedcaused

2)2) Show the problem was cause by Show the problem was cause by someone elsesomeone else

3)3) Show inadvertence, especially of Show inadvertence, especially of unforeseen consequencesunforeseen consequences

Books & StudiesBooks & Studies

►Crystal Eastman, Crystal Eastman, Work Accidents & the Work Accidents & the LawLaw

►Rachel Carson, Rachel Carson, Silent SpringSilent Spring►Ralph Nader, Ralph Nader, Unsafe at any SpeedUnsafe at any Speed►Both claim that condition…Both claim that condition…

Formerly interpreted as accident was Formerly interpreted as accident was actually the result of human willactually the result of human will

Formerly interpreted as indirectly caused Formerly interpreted as indirectly caused is actually pure intentis actually pure intent

Common Strategy in Causal Common Strategy in Causal PoliticsPolitics

►Conspiracy StoryConspiracy Story►Rational Choice TheoryRational Choice Theory

Holds that whatever people do, their Holds that whatever people do, their behavior is largely a result of conscious behavior is largely a result of conscious deliberate choicedeliberate choice

►Teleological FallacyTeleological Fallacy Assumption that effects of an action are Assumption that effects of an action are

its purposes to commitits purposes to commit Purposes must be demonstrated with Purposes must be demonstrated with

evidence of actor’s wishes/motives, evidence of actor’s wishes/motives, apart from effects of his/her actionsapart from effects of his/her actions

Knowingly Tolerating Risks Knowingly Tolerating Risks of Injuriesof Injuries

►1981 suit against Ford was upheld 1981 suit against Ford was upheld because safety was traded for cost-because safety was traded for cost-reductionreduction

►““Conscious disregard of the probability Conscious disregard of the probability that conduct will result in injury to others,” that conduct will result in injury to others,” this is considered “malicious intent.” this is considered “malicious intent.”

► Idea of calculated risksIdea of calculated risks

Disproportionate ImpactDisproportionate Impact

►Disproportionate Impact is discrimination Disproportionate Impact is discrimination based on a rule or policy, where accused based on a rule or policy, where accused does not blatantly show intentdoes not blatantly show intent

► In 1971 the Supreme Court allowed In 1971 the Supreme Court allowed statistical evidence to prove statistical evidence to prove discriminationdiscrimination

► Plaintiff needs to show that the results Plaintiff needs to show that the results of a selection process were highly of a selection process were highly unlikely to occur by chance unlikely to occur by chance

Disparate ImpactDisparate Impact

►Behaviors and rules that discriminate Behaviors and rules that discriminate against minorities and womenagainst minorities and women

►This led to the idea of “institutional This led to the idea of “institutional discrimination” discrimination”

►Discriminatory Impact is the moral and Discriminatory Impact is the moral and political equivalent of calculated riskpolitical equivalent of calculated risk

The Uses of Causal The Uses of Causal Argument In The PolisArgument In The Polis

1)1) Challenge of protect an existing set of rules, Challenge of protect an existing set of rules, institutions, and interestsinstitutions, and interests

2)2) Assign blame and responsibility for fixing a problem Assign blame and responsibility for fixing a problem and compensating victimsand compensating victims

3)3) Legitimize certain actors as “fixers” of the problem, Legitimize certain actors as “fixers” of the problem, giving them new authority, power, and resourcesgiving them new authority, power, and resources

4)4) Create new political alliances among people who Create new political alliances among people who perceive themselves to be harmed by the problem. perceive themselves to be harmed by the problem.

1. Challenge or protect an existing social 1. Challenge or protect an existing social orderorder

Example 1:Example 1: In the 19In the 19thth and early 20 and early 20thth century, many poor rural whites in the South century, many poor rural whites in the South were afflicted with a sickness later discovered to be caused by the were afflicted with a sickness later discovered to be caused by the hookworm parasite. People with the disease were listless and hookworm parasite. People with the disease were listless and eventually became slow-witted. Charles Stiles discovered in 1902 that eventually became slow-witted. Charles Stiles discovered in 1902 that the hookworm was the cause of the disease and it could be easily the hookworm was the cause of the disease and it could be easily cured with cheap medicine. Stiles was ridiculed for discovering the cured with cheap medicine. Stiles was ridiculed for discovering the “germ of laziness.” The discovery was resisted because it meant “germ of laziness.” The discovery was resisted because it meant Southern elites had to stop blaming poor whites for their laziness and Southern elites had to stop blaming poor whites for their laziness and stupidity and stop congratulating themselves for their superior ability stupidity and stop congratulating themselves for their superior ability to work hard and think fast-a supposed superiority that served to to work hard and think fast-a supposed superiority that served to justify political hierarchy.justify political hierarchy.

Example 2: Example 2: The theory of maternal deprivation-that children whose mothers work The theory of maternal deprivation-that children whose mothers work suffer developmental deficits and delays-arose just as middle-class suffer developmental deficits and delays-arose just as middle-class women entered the workforce in large numbers. Consciously or women entered the workforce in large numbers. Consciously or unconsciously, the theory served as a brake on disintegration of the unconsciously, the theory served as a brake on disintegration of the standard middle-class pattern in which the man is breadwinner and standard middle-class pattern in which the man is breadwinner and the woman is child rearer.the woman is child rearer.

2. Assign blame and responsibility for 2. Assign blame and responsibility for fixing a problem and compensating fixing a problem and compensating

victims.victims.

► ““The fall of a kingdom can be traced back The fall of a kingdom can be traced back through a lost battle, a fallen soldier, an through a lost battle, a fallen soldier, an injured horse, and a loose horseshoe, all the injured horse, and a loose horseshoe, all the way to a missing nail and a careless way to a missing nail and a careless blacksmith.”blacksmith.”

► Even when there is a strong statistical and logical Even when there is a strong statistical and logical link between a substance and a problem there is still link between a substance and a problem there is still a range of places to locate control and impose a range of places to locate control and impose sanctions. sanctions.

► Finding the ultimate cause of harms in these policy Finding the ultimate cause of harms in these policy areas is not the issue. Locating moral responsibility areas is not the issue. Locating moral responsibility and real economic costs on a chain of possible and real economic costs on a chain of possible causes is the true issue. causes is the true issue.

3. Legitimize certain actors as “fixers” of 3. Legitimize certain actors as “fixers” of the problem, giving them new authority, the problem, giving them new authority,

power, and resources.power, and resources. Causal stories become Causal stories become mechanisms for linking a desired mechanisms for linking a desired

program to a problem that happens to be high on the program to a problem that happens to be high on the policy agenda. policy agenda.

Example 1Example 1:: HMO’s HMO’sAnswer to:Answer to:

► increase health care to the poorincrease health care to the poor► cost-containment problem cost-containment problem

Example 2:Example 2: Urban Mass TransitUrban Mass TransitAnswer to:Answer to:

► traffic congestiontraffic congestion► PollutionPollution► Energy conservation Energy conservation

Causal theories server as Causal theories server as devices for building alliances devices for building alliances between groups who have problems and groups who between groups who have problems and groups who have solutions. have solutions.

4. Create new political alliances among 4. Create new political alliances among people who perceive themselves to be people who perceive themselves to be

harmed by the problem.harmed by the problem.

Causal theories predicated on statistical association can Causal theories predicated on statistical association can create create alliances by mobilizing people who share a “risk factor” alliances by mobilizing people who share a “risk factor” but otherwise have no natural communication or but otherwise have no natural communication or association.association.

Example 1:Example 1: Shifting the location of responsibility on a causal chain can Shifting the location of responsibility on a causal chain can restructure alliancesrestructure alliances. In the past, the drunk driver was solely . In the past, the drunk driver was solely responsible for accidents. These days, taverns can be held responsible for accidents. These days, taverns can be held responsible for the server’s negligence and now see their responsible for the server’s negligence and now see their customers as potential liabilities. Tavern owners may customers as potential liabilities. Tavern owners may seek new seek new alliances with other anti-regulation groupsalliances with other anti-regulation groups..

Example 2:Example 2: Women who took the drug Women who took the drug DESDES 30 years ago to prevent 30 years ago to prevent miscarriages now have daughters who are at greater risk of miscarriages now have daughters who are at greater risk of developing certain cancers. developing certain cancers. Organizations of these women Organizations of these women sprung upsprung up as soon as the initial publicity of the DES-cancer link as soon as the initial publicity of the DES-cancer link occurred.occurred.