7/27/2019 Thayer Vietnam: New Wave of State Enterprise
Reform?
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Background Brief
Vietnam: New Wave of StateEnterprise Reform?
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 2, 2013
[client name deleted]
We are preparing a report that will analyze some recent signals
by Vietnam that it isready to embrace economic reforms. These
signals include:
1) The politburo's April resolution calling for economic
integration;
2) The appointment in May of Nguyen Thien Nhan to the
Politburo
3) Vinashin's recent signals that it is planning to restructure
its debt and fire more
than half its workforce; and
4) PM Dung's comments yesterday in New York:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-29/vietnam-premier-opens-door-to-
foreign-investors.html
Are these developments (and perhaps also others that we have
overlooked) signsthat Vietnam is edging closer to implementing some
hard-hitting economic reforms,
even if that means clipping the wings of some state-owned
enterprises (SOEs)? We
request your assessment.
ANSWER: Vietnam is moving into another cycle of economic reform
including the
reform of SOEs. The Vietnam Communist Party will be holding its
eighth plenum this
month. This marks the halfway point between national party
congresses. The next
national congress is scheduled for early 2016.
By all account this plenum will be a significant meeting with
speculation of possible
senior leadership changes. Some of the indications of a renewal
of economic reformwe are now seeing are an attempt by some senior
party officials to pre-empt
criticism by Central Committee members on how they have handled
the economy.
Nguyen Tan Dung is working hard to overcome the stinging
criticism he received at
the October 2012 party plenum.
On April 10, the Politburo unanimously adopted a resolution on
international
integration. This document makes absolutely clear that economic
integration has the
highest priority and that Vietnam must engage more with
multilateral economic
organisations. It is significant that Prime Minister Dung was
put in charge of
overseeing international integration; but he has to report
annually to the Politburo
on progress.
Thayer ConsultancyABN # 65 648 097 123
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-29/vietnam-premier-opens-door-to-foreign-investors.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-29/vietnam-premier-opens-door-to-foreign-investors.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-29/vietnam-premier-opens-door-to-foreign-investors.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-29/vietnam-premier-opens-door-to-foreign-investors.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-29/vietnam-premier-opens-door-to-foreign-investors.html
7/27/2019 Thayer Vietnam: New Wave of State Enterprise
Reform?
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Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Vietnam: New Wave of
State Enterprise
Reform?, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 2, 2013.
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current
regional security issues andother research support to selected
clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
