The 2010 Census and Demographic Change Leo F. Estrada, PhD UCLA School of Public Affairs

The 2010 Census and Demographic Change

Leo F. Estrada, PhDUCLA School of Public Affairs

The Origins of the Census

“The Great Experiment”Congressional Representation based on population

First Census—1790 (10 year intervals)Census-racial distinctionsCollection of household information

Census TimelineLate January 2010: media outreach beginsMid-March: forms mailed out to 100 million households

April 1, 2010: Census DayMay – July 2010: phone follow-up interviews

July – September 2010: interview follow-upOctober – December: data processingDecember 31, 2010: Final results presented to the U.S. President

The 2010 “Short” Census Name Sex Age Date of Birth Hispanic Origin Race Household Relationships Own or rent

The American Community Survey

On-going monitor 77K households per month

Data summed up annually In 2010, survey sample will be of 1 million households

Characteristics of population will be determined by ACS (i.e., education, occupation, home value, income, etc)

The Undercount?

Every 1% of undercount is = to 3 Million

The undercount in 2000 was 2.78% Most likely to be undercounted:

Granny flats (address undercount)Babies (intra-household undercount)Youth (permanent residence)Transients (permanent residence)Immigrants (distrust, fear)

Outreach

Importance of outreach for cooperation

Trusted sources of information Alleviate confidentiality and privacy concerns

Why the Census Matters

Reapportionment/RedistrictingRestructuring political space

Government funding--$400 Billion for transportation, hospitals, schools, public works, etc.

Source for understanding markets

Growth

US Population Growth, 2000-2008

2008(millions

)

2000 (millions

)

%2008 %2000 Diff

Hispanic 46.9 35.2 15.5 12.5 3.0 Native

27.3 21.1 9.1 7.5 1.6

Foreign Born

18.0 14.1 6.0 5.0 1.0

White 206.2 194.5 67.8 69.1 -2.7Black 37.6 33.7 12.4 12.0 0.4Asian 13.4 10.1 4.4 3.6 0.8

U.S. Census Bureau, ACS, 2007 and 2008

Demography and Latinas

Population change is due to: Births Deaths Net Migration

Future of the U.S is aligned with the future trends of Latinas

Women Giving Birth Last Year, 2007

Births % of all Births

% Births to Unmarried

Latinas 897,810 21.7 42.0US Born Latinas

419,494 10.1 52.4

Foreign Born Latinas

478,316 11.6 32.9

White 2,337,722 56.5 26.4

Black 565,588 13.7 70.5

Asian 210,686 5.1 10.5

Total 4,136,978 100.0 35.8

Projections in Elementary School Minority Aged Children

2000 to 2025

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2000 2005 2010 2025

Other

Asian

Hispanic

Black

(in

thou

sand

s)

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, CPS, P25-1130

Marriage

CA Women by Marital Status, 2007

All Latinas

US Born Latinas

Foreign Born Latinas

White Women

Black Women

%Married 50.8 41.6 58.4 56.6 32.8%Separated 4.1 3.5 4.5 1.6 4.9

%Divorced 8.4 10.5 6.8 11.7 12.4

%Widowed 3.6 3.7 3.6 7.3 6.9

%Never Married

33.1 40.8 26.7 22.7 42.9

Total (millions)

30.0 13.5 16.5 156.6 26.0

Source: Pew Hispanic Center and ACS 2005

Source: Pew Hispanic Center and American Community Survey 2005

Source: American Community Survey 2006-2008

Morbidity: Causes of Death

Rank Cause of Death Deaths Rate /

100,000

Percent of All Deaths

Ratio of Hispanic to non-Hispanic White

1 Heart Disease 222.2 27 0.7

2 Cancer 186.6 23 0.6

3 Stroke 51.1 6 0.8

4 Respiratory Disease 41.5 5 0.4

5 Accidents 38.1 5 0.8

6 Diabetes mellitus 24.9 3 1.5

7 Alzheimer’s 22.5 3 0.6

8 Influenza / Pneumonia 20.3 3 0.9

9 Kidney Disease 14.5 2 0.9

10 Blood Poisoning 11.4 1 0.8

11 Suicide 11.0 1 0.5

12 Liver Disease 9.2 1 1.6

13 High Blood Pressure 7.9 1 1.0

14 Parkinson’s Disease 6.1 1 0.6

15 Homicide 5.9 1 2.7

Leading Causes of Death, 2005

Youthfulness

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Age Distribution by Sex and Age Distribution by Sex and Hispanic Origin: 2000Hispanic Origin: 2000

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

Male Female Female

Male

(In percent)(In percent)Hispanic

Non-HispanicWhite

Source: Current Population Survey, March 2000, PGP-4

age

California Median Age, 2007

White Latino

Total 42.5 26.6

Male 41.3 26.4

Female 43.6 26.8

CA Latina/o Median Age, 2007

Total Latino Latina

Total 27 27 27

US Born 17 17 18

Foreign Born

36 35 38

Immigration

ImmigrationImmigration

*Immigration is an global phenomena

*Immigrants are risk takers

*Immigrants revitalize decaying urban areas

*Immigrants reduce the rate of wage growth

Leading Countries of Immigration

1900 1960 2000

Germany Italy Mexico

Ireland Germany China

Canada Canada Philippines

UK UK India

Sweden Poland Cuba

Italy Soviet Union Vietnam

Russia Mexico El Salvador

Poland Ireland Korea

Norway Austria Dominican Republic

CA Latina Citizenship, 2007

Latinas <18 Latinas 18+

2,216,306 4,086,793

Native Born 91.1 42.6

Foreign Born 8.8 57.4

Naturalized

9.8 32.7

Not US citizen

8.0 38.6

U.S. Citizenship of the Foreign-U.S. Citizenship of the Foreign-Born Hispanic Population by Year of Born Hispanic Population by Year of

Entry: 2000Entry: 2000(in percent)(in percent)

Percent

74.2

45.7

23.9

6.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Before 1970 1970 to 1979 1980 to 1989 1990 to 2000

Source: Current Population Survey, March 2000, PGP-4

The New Demographic Terrain

16 States Will Account for 90% of All Future Growth in the US

California VirginiaTexas TennesseeFlorida UtahGeorgia South CarolinaArizona OregonWashington MichiganNorth Carolina NevadaColorado Minnesota

California Population by Race and Ethnicity, 1980

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

White Latino Black Asian/Other


0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000



0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000



0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000


California Population by California Population by Race/EthnicityRace/Ethnicity1970-20071970-2007

Source: United States Census Bureau

California Latinos will become California Latinos will become the single largest ethnic groupthe single largest ethnic group

Source: California Department of Finance

CALIFORNIA 1990

Other (42%) White(58%)

CALIFORNIA 2020

Other (59%)White (41%)

Department of Finance, Urban Research Unit, Report 88, P-4

CALIFORNIA 2040

Other (69%)White (31%)

Department of Finance, Urban Research Unit, Report 88, P-4

U.S. Latinos--The Fourth Largest Latino “Nation”

1. Mexico 110 million 2. United States 46.9 million 3. Colombia 44.4 million 4. Spain 41.3

million 5. Argentina 36.0 million 6. Peru 28.7 million 7. Venezuela 26.4 million 8. Chile 16.4 million 9. Ecuador 13.7 million 10 Guatemala 13.0 million

The number for the U.S is 51.4 million including Puerto Rico

Education

4.

6.

10.

11.

1.

2.

5.

7.

3.

8.

9.

Chicana/o Educational Pipeline

100Elementary School

Students

44 Graduate from

High School

26Enroll in College17

Go to a Community

College

9 Go to a 4-

Year College

1Transfers to a

4-Year College 7Graduate w/ a B.A. Degree

56Drop out of

School

2Graduate w/ a

Graduate or Professional Degree

<1Graduates w/ a Doctoral DegreeSource: 2000 Census; Dan Solorzano

Educational attainment, Educational attainment, 2005-072005-07

Latino educational Latino educational attainment, 2005-07attainment, 2005-07

Latino educational Latino educational attainment, attainment, 1990 to 2005-071990 to 2005-07

Early Childhood Education: Children Enrolled in Pre-School

0

10

2030

4050

6070

8090

100

Age 3 Age 4 Age 5

White, NH

Black, NH

Asian

Hispanic

Source: CPS, Bureau of the Census, October, 1997

Digital divide: Digital divide: “Do you ever visit the website of your “Do you ever visit the website of your child’s school?”child’s school?”

Source: PPIC

Occupations and Earnings

Occupations CA Women, 2007

White Women Latinas

3,533,648 2,187,309

Management 46.4 21.2

Service 14.7 29.0

Sales 35.6 35.0

Farming 0.1 2.2

Construction 0.7 0.7

Production 2.6 1.2

CA Earnings, 2007

White Latino % of White Earnings

Male, Full-Time Worker

$62,789 $29,807 47.5%

Female, Full-Time Worker

46,600 26,066 55.9%

CA Per Capita Income, 2007

Whites $39,761 Blacks $21,406 Latino $15,206

Latino Politics

An ever important force….but low on registration..

California Latino Voters, 2008

0500,000

1,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,0004,500,0005,000,000

Citizen Adults Registered Voters

60 percent of eligible Latino adults are registered to vote

California Latino Voters

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1996 2000 2004 2008

Latino Voters

Source: NALEO

California Latino Share of Total Vote (percent)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1996 2000 2004 2008

Latino Share ofVote

Source: NALEO

California Voter Registration

MetroArea

LatinoLatino

19901990LatinoLatino

20002000LatinoLatino

GrowthGrowthNon-LatinoNon-Latino

20002000Non-LatinoNon-Latino

GrowthGrowth

Los AngelesLos Angeles 766,017 1,359,497 77% 5,578,624 8%

San San FranciscoFrancisco

276,452 309,198 12% 2,984,134 7%

San DiegoSan Diego 109,100 158,575 45% 964,347 -10%

SacramentoSacramento 129,544 175,479 35% 1,562,726 17%

FresnoFresno 107,424 153,354 43% 474,137 6%

OtherOther 118,854 191,173 61% 1351,000 27%

TOTALS 1,507,391 2,347,271 56% 12,914,968 9%TOTALS 1,507,391 2,347,271 56% 12,914,968 9%

Conclusions

Growth Forecast By 2020, Hispanic population

will double 36% will be minorities rising

from 28% now Whites are now minorities in

Hawaii and New Mexico and soon will be in California and Texas

Most Americans younger than 18 will be minorities

Latinos in CaliforniaLatinos in California

A New Terrain-A majority of Californians (53.4%) are non-White

Latinos in California-remain youthful, employed, with changing families, and generational differences

Impact: schools, consumer base, labor force, non-English language media, business formation, voting power, etc.

Persistent Issues: immigration, language, concerns about separatism, low educational attainment

PPIC

Digital divide: Digital divide: “Do you ever visit the website of your “Do you ever visit the website of your child’s school?” child’s school?”

Digital divide: Digital divide: Do you ever use a computer at home, at Do you ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school?” work, or at school?”

““How serious of a threat is air pollution How serious of a threat is air pollution in your region in your region to you and your immediate family?” to you and your immediate family?”

““How serious of a threat is air pollution How serious of a threat is air pollution in your region in your region to you and your immediate family?” to you and your immediate family?”

Politics: Percent Voting for Obama Politics: Percent Voting for Obama

Politics: Voted “yes” on Proposition 8 Politics: Voted “yes” on Proposition 8 to ban same-sex marriageto ban same-sex marriage

Documents

The 2010 Census and Demographic Change Leo F. Estrada, PhD UCLA School of Public Affairs