The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2010: Selected

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2010:Selected Highlights

Presenter: Gary DietachmayerWGNE-26

Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010

Overview – riding instructions

From your perspective do you seek or can you provide some advice to other groups? Is there a need for a workshop on an issue that WGNE should be involved in? Are there any new concrete projects that would benefit from a group effort that WGNE can support?

We have shortened the time for each report to 20 minutes including questions ………….. This means that we do not expect a full report on what happened at your centre in the last 12 months.


Overview

• New Supercomputers

• Drove some timelines

• CMIP5 related activities

• Major activity

• NWP (high-res) / SREP (grey-zone????)


Supercomputer

• Combined bid with BoM and CSIRO/ANU/NCI

• ‘Solar’ (BoM-HO) and ‘vayu’ (ANU)


Supercomputer (NEC SX6 – Solar)


Supercomputer (vayu)

• 1492 nodes

• Each of two quad-core Nehalem CPUs

• Peak theoretical performance of approximately 140TFlops.

• Total of 37TB of RAM on compute nodes

• Approx 800 TBytes of usable global storage • (very) loose division: Solar for

NWP, (fraction of vayu, approx 1,000 cores) for climate


Supercomputer (Solar timelines)

• Feb 09 Contract signed

• Jun 09 Phase One: Initial system delivery.

• ….. resolution of a number of HW/SW issues …..

• 30 May 10 Phase Two: Full system ready for production use.

• 22 Jun 10 Oracle and BoM declare system ready for operational use.

• 29 Jun 10 NMOC declares the core ACCESS NWP suite operational on Solar.

• 31 Aug 10 NMOC software suites operational on Solar, NEC decommissioned.


CMIP5/CLIMATE (models)

• CSIRO Mk3.6 AOGCM

• Existing global AOGCM

• CMIP5 long term only

• Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (C-CAM)

• Existing RCM – CAWCR is currently reviewing its RCM capability

• CORDEX• Two African simulations• One by McGregor at al., CAWCR/CSIRO• One by collaborators at Univ. Pretoria.

• Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS)

• New global AOGCM/ESM

• CMIP5 long term initially


CMIP5 (CSIRO Mk3.6)• Features:

• Atmosphere: Grid T63 (1.875 x 1.875); 18 levels - hybrid sigma,p

• Ocean: MOM2.2 code; Grid 0.94 NS x 1.875 EW; 31 levels

• Interactive aerosol treatment – sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, mineral dust and sea salt

• Upgraded radiation scheme, upgraded (non-local) PBL scheme

• Anthropogenic aerosol impact on Australian rainfall

• Shadings indicate significance at the 5% and the 1% level


Control 500 yr 1 Completed 450/500 70% delivered

Historical 1850-2005 10

AMIP 1970-2008 10

Mid-Holocene 100 yr 1 Completed 370/400 0% delivered

RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 2006-2100 10 5 yrs remaining on E10 25% delivered

1%/yr CO2 to 4x 140 1

AGCM + control SSTs 30 1

AGCM + control SSTs + 4x CO2 30 1

4x CO2 150 + 5 1+11

AGCM + control SSTs + AA 30 1

AGCM + control SSTs + SA 30 1

Historical (natural) 1850-2005 10

Historical (GHGs) 1850-2005 10 75% delivered

Historical (anthropogenic) 1850-2005 10 50% delivered

Historical (all except ozone) 1850-2005 10 0% delivered

Historical (all except AA) 1850-2005 10 50% delivered

Historical (AA) 1850-2005 10 50% delivered

Historical (Asian aerosols) 1850-2005 10 Completed 60/156 0% delivered

CMIP5 (CSIRO Mk3.6)


CMIP5 (ACCESS coupled model)

• Atmosphere: UKMO UM Grid N96 (1.875 x 1.25); 38 levels

• Sea Ice: CICE 4 Grid 1.0 x 1.0, enhanced tropical; 46 levels

• Coupler: OASIS 3.2.5 or 4

• Ocean: “AusCOM” MOM 4p1

• Land surface/carbon cycle: “CABLE” (Kowalczyk et al. 2006) + CASA-CNP + LPJ dynamic vegetation



• For AR5 timeline, AOGCM only

• Status

• Components coupled and numerous centennial-length simulations performed

• Now have two versions • Atmosphere – HadGEM2 settings (much delayed)• Atmosphere – proto-HadGEM3 settings + modifications

• Extensive evaluation underway

• Resources

• New NCI machine (share ~1,000 cores)

• 6 coupled simulations in parallel at 4 years per day

• should be adequate to perform “core” experiments in 4 months



Version with HadGEM2 atmosphere

Version with proto-HadGEM3 atmosphere

ΔSST (model – obs) (K)



• Aims for AR5 (as early as possible 2011)

• All “core” long term CMIP5 simulations

• Consider select “Tier 1” and “Tier 2” if time

• Aims for CMIP5 subsequent to AR5

• Tier 1 and Tier 2 expanded set

• ESM participation (include carbon cycle)

• CFMIP (?)

• Transpose-AMIP (?)

• Potential – CMIP5 short term decadal

• Potential – CMIP5 atmospheric chemistry

• Potential if Univ. collaboration – PMIP

• Model output

• Post-processing using CMOR; hosted at NCI ESG node/gateway


ACCESS-NWP (APS0 timelines)“APS0”:

• Replicates legacy domains

• G – Global (80km)• R – Regional (38km)• T – Tropical (38km)• A – Australian Meso (12km)• C – City (5km)• TC – Tropical Cyclone (12km)

• G, R, T went operational Sept/Oct 2009 on NEC-SX6• Solar declared operational June-22 2010

• G, R, T, A – June-29• C operational – August-12• Last forecasts from GASP, LAPS, TXLAPS, MesoLAPS, MALAPS – August-17• NEC-SX6 shutdown – August-31• Not yet operational – TC, UM-based-Ozone


ACCESS-NWP (APS0 G Verification)


ACCESS-NWP (APS0 R/T/A verification)

• MSLP• S1 (upper)• RMS (middle)• Bias (lower)

• Sep-2009 to Aug-2010 (R, T)

• Nov-2009 to Aug-2010 (A)

• Up to 72hr (R, T)• Up to 48hr (A)

LAPS, ACCESS-R TXLAPS, ACCESS-T MesoLAPS, MALAPS, ACCESS-A


ACCESS-NWP (ACCESS-C)

• “Tropical” city systems (Brisbane, Sydney) crashed often in development

• Signal was localised run-away vertical-velocities

• Resistant to UM targeted-diffusion

• Were using UKMO 4km system parameters, but for now “old” model (v6.4)

• “Grey zone” issue???

• Experiment with convective-settings• Change CAPE-closure from “Grid-box-area scaled” to “vertical-velocity

dependent”• Stronger coupling between developing instability and stabilising action of parameterised

convection


ACCESS-NWP (ACCESS-C)

• Change stabilises and (probably) improves rainfall accuracy


ACCESS-NWP (ACCESS-TC)

• ACCESS-TC close to complete

• Assim/Forecast components in place, number of promising studies for NH and SH TCs

• Post-processing/diagnostic tools being finalised

• Addition of TC-bogus to other ACCESS systems

• Should be ready for Aus TC season


ACCESS-NWP (APS1 - Domains)

APS0:• Replicates legacy domains

APS1:• No 0.375o equivalent• N320 global, some

experimentation with N512• Meso domain now focussed

on ACCESS-R replacement• No TXLAPS equivalent ??• L50 -> L70


ACCESS-NWP (APS1 – Model/Assim)

• “Catch-up”: move from UM 6.4 to 7.5• Re-examine model issues from APS0

• Convection / Precipitation for “C” (and “R-12” !), particularly in (semi) tropics• Grey-Zone Project ???

• (Very) large velocities at top-of-model in “R”, feeding into “C”.

• New/extended satellite data• IASI, NOAA-19 ATOVS, GPS-RO, hourly AMVs• SSMI/S out of scope for APS1, high-priority for APS2

• Improved background error specification for ACCESS-R12


SREP (Strategic Radar Enhancement Project)

• “Catch-up • CAWCR: Improve the underlying science to assimilate radar data into the Bureau’s NWP models

• OEB: Install 4 new radars

• (Eventual) Replacement for city based systems

• 5km → ~2km

• 00 & 12Z → 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, ….

• Assimilation• In situ obs & satellite• Doppler winds• Precipitation


SREP (Strategic Radar Enhancement Project)

• Sydney 1.5km resolution ‘test-bed’.

• Focus is very much on DA, but some model development/evaluation is budgeted for.

Milestones Date

Activity 1: Development and assessment of meso-scale NWP systems over Australia

Task 1.1 Test UM at ~2km Jul 2010 – Oct 2010

Run Case studies run for test-bed

Report on case studies Oct 2010

Task 1.2 Test UM+3dVAR at ~2km Nov 2010 – Sep 2011

Case studies run for Sydney and/or Brisbane

Presentation of case studies Mar 2011

• Will have 5km and 1.5km models running over similar domain

• “Grey Zone” project???


A Grey Lunch

• Some Australian perspectives on the morning discussion ……

• ECMWF global resolution = Australian-Meso resolution

• Martin’s global grey-zone is our Meso

• UKV style “jump-across” grey-zone probably not feasible for us – Aus domain is too large

• Conclusion – we should be supportive here

• Nice words, or contribution?

• Don’t currently have CRM/LES capability, nor world’s largest SC.

• Possibilities ….

• Do some of the simulations at the coarse-end (liase with UK?)

• Contribute to some of the analysis

• In-house

• In collaboration with Uni-sector via ACCESS? (*)


MBM (My Burridge Moment ……. with apologies to Dave)

• Perhaps this is a uniquely Aussie affliction, but the R&D branch of the Australian “Operational Centre” is very different now to five years ago.

• CAWCR has responsibility for both NWP & Climate R&D.

• Already have UK-based unified systems for NWP & Climate, will slowly move to include RCM, SP, etc under this framework.

• An NWP scientist who might have been deployed to, say, high-res AMIP, can now be deployed directly to, say, help tuning of the coupled system for CMIP5 – which of those activities has the higher profile?

• Take home story: the “pitch” as to why an “operational centre” might want to join a project may vary significantly from OC to OC.

Documents

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2010: Selected