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The Fukushima Accident:Consequences for Global

Nuclear Power

Charles McCombieArius Association, Switzerland

AAEA MeetingExpert meeting on Technical and Economical

Feasibility of NPP in Arab countries Hammamet, Tunisia, 17-19 June 2013

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Great East Japan Earthquake

Post natural disaster reaction amongst nuclear power generating nations

Instant panic

Think long and hard – then act

Premature complacency

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Fukushima Impacts

Operation of current nuclear plantsStress testsEmergency Planning

Development of national nuclear programmes

Business as usual – including expansionStop/ReduceCase studies – Germany, Switzerland

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EU Stress Tests

ApproachCommon methodology; multinational teamsAssessments of extreme natural eventsAll NPPs (17 countries 145 NPPs)

ResultsNo NPP to be shut down for safety reasonsNeed for improvements in almost allSome potential improvements in the spent fuel poolsCosts ~EUR 200M/reactor (145 NPPs) -> EUR 25B

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Reactions to EU Stress Reults

European Parliament March 2013Criticism of completeness

New safety Directive planned for 2013New study on emergency preparedness and responseVarious specific improvements being initiated (e.g. improved venting systems)

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Swiss Safety Inspectorate (18th Mar 2011)

Implement an external store (earthquake and flood proof); sufficiently far from the NPPs containing:

Emergency power suppliesBatteries, measuring instrumentsMobile pumps, cables, pipingTransportable fuelsBorated materials

All transportable by helicopter

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Fukushima:deaths due to evacuation

Total no of evacuees 333,000In Fukushima, around 134,000 people of which around 100,0000 were evacuees of the nuclear plant accident 1632 deaths (“physical and psychological fatigue”)34 deaths from “emotional stress due to nuclear accident”

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EPA Protective Action Guide

Planning for emergency response to radiological incidentsThree principles in establishing exposure levels for the PAGs—

1. Prevent acute effects 2. Balance protection with other important factors and ensure that actions result in more benefit than harm3. Reduce risk of chronic effects

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EPA Protective Action GuideEarly Phase: The PAG for evacuation or sheltering-in-place is a projected whole body dose of 1 to 5 rem (10 – 50 mSv) total effective dose (TED) over four days. Response worker guidelines of 5, 10 or 25 rem (50, 100 or 250 mSv) are based on the urgency of activities and knowledge of the risks involved Intermediate Phase: The PAG for relocation is 2 rem (20 mSv) over the first year of exposure. After the first year, the PAG for relocation is 0.5 rem (5 mSv) per yearLate Phase: Exposure limits in a range of one in a population of ten thousand (10-4) to one in a population of one million (10-6) excess lifetime cancer incidence outcomes are generally considered protective, though this may not be achievable after a large radiological incident

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NCRP – Late recoveryThe recovery requires careful planning for the return of the population to a condition no longer under emergency status — known as the “new normal” The optimisation approach has since been balanced to include incidents that could result from the terrorism events or off-site When the incident has moved into the late phase, the situation is considered an existing exposure situation. Dose limits do not apply because existing exposure situations cannot be managed in a priori fashion (ICRP, 2009a). The reference level recommended by ICRP Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007) for optimisation is a range of 1 to 20 mSv y-1

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Significant Policy Change …or Panic?

GermanyCease nuclear power generation by 2022. Significant increase in fossil fuel power

SwitzerlandNuclear power generation will cease by 2034; also needs fossil power

BelgiumRevert to earlier decision to phase out

KuwaitPostponed/slowed down programme, research reactor only

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Germany: Fr Merkel

Oct 2010 CDU decides to extend NPP lifetimes. Merkel and CDU were pronuclearGerman NPPs “the safest in the world” (2010)Fukushima 11 Mar 2011; German elections 27th Mar 201114th March “three month moratorium” announcedPhase out by 2022 now plannedGerman electricity already expensive (24¢/kWh); UK=14; Fr=13

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Shutdown effects on Germany

Siemens: costing of the nuclear shutdown ranges from €11 billion to €252 billionThis comes on top of the general cost of the energy policy and takes the total to €1, 670 trillionImmediate effects:

Changes in electricity import-exportRush to finish building 10 GWe of fossil power plantsShort-term reliance on an oil-fuelled plant in AustriaEmission of 370 million tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2020Expensive electricity

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Switzerland: Fr LeuthardFr Leuthard (Energy Minister) und CVP were pro-nuclear; 11th Mar 2011 Fukushima; Swiss elections Oct 201126nd March 2011: Energy Minister: «Without knowing the exact consequences, it is foolish to demand that Switzerland gives up nuclear power.“ 25th May: Government decisions:

Swiss people wishes to reduce nuclear risksSwitzerland will move out of nuclear energy No need for immediate shutdown because Swiss NPPs are safe (!)

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Switzerland: public opinion Jan 2013

61% believe nuclear power is necessary74% are convinced Swiss NPPs are safe63% recognise economic benefits of nuclear52.6% believe waste problem is solvable75% wants electricity supply to be self-sufficient (Only) 43% believe that the NPPs ease the CO2 problem

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Shutdown effects on Switzerland

The Governement (DETEC) has already estimated that phasing out nuclear energy will cost it around CHF 30 billion ($33 billion) by 2050.A review by the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently highlighted the difficulties that the country will face in trying to achieve its carbon dioxide reduction goals while attempting to phase out nuclear power.

“In the absence of nuclear power, maintaining sufficient electricity capacity will require strong policies to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy. Such measures have already been outlined, but they will likely not be enough”

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New Energy Policy of Swiss Governement

To replace the nuclear power and reach the generating capacity proposed by the government for 2015, Switzerland would need:

+

+

2-3Storage dams as in Grimsel

25River hydro plant like Beznau

More than 1000

Windturbinesà 2 MW

175Geothermal

Power plants

10’000’000Solar panelseach 10 m2

1’000’000 Tons of biomass per year

+

+

+

From Nuklearforum Schweiz

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How big are solar parks?

Wind

Solarpark Waldpolenznear Leipzig (Sachsen)

• 40 Megawatt capacity

• 550’000 Solar panels

• Feed-in tariff > 50 Rp. pro kWh

In Switzerland, a facility like this would produce in one

year about the same electricity as the Gösgen NPP does in

two days.

From Nuklearforum Schweiz

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Pre-Fukushima Swiss Policy

Post-Fukushima Swiss Policy

Current Swiss NPPs safe No new NPPs – too risky

CO2- ambitious reduction goals Gas-fired stations to be built

Electricity supply autonomous Import strategy unavoidable

Strong environmental protection laws

New laws ease wind, solar permits

Economic production of electricity Large planned increases in prices

Fair treatment of all consumers Households subsidise industryInput from Swiss Nuklearforum

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Some Policy Change

JapanReview of energy policy; and new independent regulator. The government is formulating a new energy mix formula, with options for atomic power ranging from zero to 35% of electricity by 2030 against an earlier target of more than half

ChinaGovernment supports nuclear power but temporarily suspended approval process for new reactors

ItalyNuclear option is off the table for at least 5 years

JordanSchedule pushed back but still enthusiastic

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No Significant Policy ChangeArgentina, Brazil, Canada, Finland, France, India, Iran, Russia, Slovakia, South Korea, UAE, USA Armenia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Indonesia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Vietnam Egypt, Hungary, Jordan, Kenya, Mexico, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Slovenia, South Africa Sweden

Constructing

Planning Proposed based on WNA data

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EU Countries Support for Nuclear Power

Joint Ministerial Communique Statement 13th March 2013: NPPs

Help ensure security of supplyReduce CO2Provide economic benefitsNeed suitable investment environment

SignatoriesBulgaria; Czech republic; Finland; France; Hungary; Lithuania; Netherlands; Poland; Romania; Slovakia; Spain; UK

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Nuclear Power Plants under Construction

From WNA website

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World Nuclear Power (IAEA 2013-05-26)

COUNTRY COUNTRY

CHINA 18 ROMANIA 2

CZECH REPUBLIC 6 RUSSIA 33

FINLAND 4 SLOVAKIA 4

FRANCE 58 SLOVENIA 1

GERMANY 9 SOUTH AFRICA 2

HUNGARY 4 SPAIN 8

INDIA 20 SWEDEN 10

IRAN 1 SWITZERLAND 5

JAPAN 50 UKRAINE 15

KOREA, REPUBLIC 23 UNITED KINGDOM 16

MEXICO 2 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 102

NETHERLANDS 1

PAKISTAN 3 TOTAL 436

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Argentina 3 3 India 27 57 Romania 2 3Armenia 1 1 Indonesia 0 6 Russia 43 44Bangladesh 0 2 Iran 1 3 Saudi

Arabia 0 16Belarus 0 4 Israel 0 1 Slovakia 6 1Belgium 7 0 Italy 0 10 Slovenia 1 1Brazil 3 4 Japan 53 12 South

Africa 2 6Bulgaria 2 1 Jordan 0 1 Spain 7 0Canada 19 5 Kazakhstan 0 4 Sweden 10 0Chile 0 4 North Korea 0 1 Switzerland 5 3China 45 169 South Korea 27 6 Thailand 0 5Czech Rep. 6 3 Lithuania 0 1 Turkey 0 8Egypt 0 2 Malaysia 0 2 Ukraine 15 13Finland 5 2 Mexico 2 2 UAE 1 13France 59 2 Netherlands 1 1 UK 16 13Germany 9 0 Pakistan 5 2 USA 106 24Hungary 4 2 Poland 0 6 Vietnam 0 10

World 501 479        

NPPS: a) operation or construction b) planned or proposed

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What can we do to ensure that nuclear power prevails?

Correct false assertions about safety Correct false assertions about waste managementCorrect false assertions about economics

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U.S. Sailors Sue Japan Over Fukushima

 “They’ve got leukemia, they have growths, they’re undergoing surgery to remove lesions in their brains, a couple of them have had them and have lost the sight in their eye,” Attorney Paul C. Garner     They are seeking $10 million in compensatory damages and $30 million in punitive damages for fraud, negligence, strict liability, failure to warn, public and private nuisance, and defective design. They also want TEPCO ordered to establish a fund of $100 million to pay for their medical expenses

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UNSCEAR Report 2013

UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR):

"Radiation exposure following the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi did not cause any immediate health effects. It is unlikely to be able to attribute any health effects in the future among the general public and the vast majority of workers."

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Karecha and Hansen 2013

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The “Waste Problem”

Greenpeace: Only countries that face the unsolvable problem of radioactive waste head-on by ending their reliance on nuclear power can stop the vicious circle that shifts responsibility to the next generations.”

Blue Ribbon Commission: “Deep geological disposal is the most promising and accepted method currently available for safely isolating spent fuel and high-level radioactive wastes from the environment for very long periods of time.”

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Economics of Nuclear PowerThe Economist: ”Since the 1970s, far from being “too cheap to meter”—as it`s proponents once blithely claimed—nuclear power has proved too expensive to matter.”

World Nuclear Association: “Nuclear power is cost competitive with other forms of electricity generation, except where there is direct access to low-cost fossil fuels.”

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New 2013 Report from IEA

The world is not on track to meet the target agreed by governments to limit the long-term rise in the average global temperature to 2 degrees Celsius (°C).Energy is at the heart of this challenge: the energy sector accounts for around two-thirds of greenhouse-gas emissions, as more than 80 of global energy consumption is based on fossil fuels

If governments are serious about addressing climate change, nuclear energy is one of the key options to look into because it generates electricity at a low cost and does not emit carbon-dioxide

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Take-away MessagesFukushima did NOT cause any nuclear deathsNuclear power remains safe and environmentally friendly….. IF it is implemented and maintained in a responsible mannerNuclear power is expanding globallyNew generation nuclear plants will be even saferThe challenges facing nuclear power remain:

Ensuring operational safetyEstablishing a credible waste management systemKeeping the economics competitive with alternatives

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The end

Thank You