6
LETS PLAY A GAME simple. possible three, the third one. That is, combined probability of car being Dust the Grime of your brain cells and your chance of winning the car is 1/3. behind door 2 or door 3 is 2/3 and try to recollect Baye's Theorem (Yep, But, if you switch, you get yourself a since it is not behind door 2 the back to good old JEE days!) probability that the car is behind door So, here we go! Earlier when you were asked by the host to choose a door, you will agree with me that you had a 1/3 chance of winning the car. Now, after the host reveals a door (not So dear reader, what do you think? selected by you) having a fish, there Should you switch your door or not? are three routes. Is it that you have chosen the right Suppose door 1 contains a fish, door 2 door and now the game show host is again a fish, and door 3, the car. Now deliberately trying to mislead you into there could be three possible ways of playing the game: choosing the wrong door? After all, brand new car in two out of the 1. You chose door 1, host opens the the host is a crony of the people 3 is now 2/3. So it would be advisable possible three ways. That's 2/3 2nd, and then asks you to make the paying for the car and they definitely to switch the door. Thus you double doubling your probability of winning switch if you wish. your chances of winning if you don't want you to win it! Think for a the car. 2. You chose door 2, host opens the switch! So, the poor game show host, while before we give you the answer. Another way of understanding this is 1st, and then asks you to make the whom you suspected of trying to in the following way: switch if you wish. derail your chances of winning, is Done? Need help? Suppose you chose door 1 initially, 3. You chose door 3, host opens either willingly or unwillingly actually on All right then, we suggest you should your chances of winning are 1/3 of 1st or 2nd door, and then asks you your side! better thank the host for his very (since the car can be behind any of the to make the switch. generous offer and switch your three doors). So the probability that Now, if you stick to your decision choice! But how does it really matter, the car is behind either door 2 or door even when you are offered a switch, you ask? There would only be two 3 is 1 – 1/3 = 2/3. Since the car is not you have a chance of winning the car possible outcomes, you say-either behind door 2 - the one, which the only through one route out of the you win the car or not. Well it isn't that hosts open to reveal trash but still the ave you ever watched the Television game show 'Khul Ja Sim here comes the interesting part. Your host (who, by the way, knows Sim'? You might not have been lucky enough to be on the exactly what is behind each door) opens one of the doors (not chosen by Hshow. So here we offer you a chance to play this game with you) that contains the fish. And now, the host offers you another us.You are standing before three closed doors. One lucky door leads to opportunity and asks if you want to switch your choice to the other door your dream car and the other two conceal complete trash that makes which is still closed. TIME TO PUT ON YOUR THINKING CAPS! your host go “TAI TAI FISH”. Now, you are given the chance to choose any one of them. Let's say you choose one of the three at random. Now Switching Not Switching Case 1 Win Lose Case 2 Win Lose Case 3 Lose Win Door 1 Door 2 Door 3 1/3 1/3 1/3 1/3 2/3 1/3 FISH 2/3 ello folks. The KGPian Game Theory Society is back with another edition of The Strategist- a periodic paper that aims to spread the culture of strategic thinking among KGPians. Started in April 2012, The Strategist is Hnow the most widely read campus paper of IIT Kharagpur with the highest online viewership*- we thank you for that! In this edition we have presented some original and inspired ideas in a manner that is easily comprehendible.In this edition, the new members of the society have contributed a lot in terms of articles and we as editors commend them for coming up with such wonderful articles. There is also a glossary of technical terms for those who are reading our paper for the first time. As you go through the articles like “Dilemmas of KGP Hall Politics” and “Never Outshine the Master” you will realize how integral role game theory plays in your day to day life. You will also notice how various game shows across the world and little battles of life can be won using the basic concepts of game theory.This edition also introduces “Channu” , the new cool avatar of the greatest game theorist of all time Chanakya! He will be your companion in this wonderful journey of strategies, supplying a new tip at every crossroad. Tips, that are bound to make you more successful in life. But beware! Channu is a strategist, and not a social worker! Not everything he suggests might sound like ideal behaviour for a good person, but it will surely get you what you want, even if that means manipulating your loved ones to achieve your goals. So feel free to appreciate the tips we offer, but use them only after applying your own experience and conscience. And with that we welcome you to take plunge into the fascinating world of strategic thinking. *As per number of views on issuu.com WELCOME TO CHANNU'S WORLD! Visit Our FB page facebook.com/The.KGTS STR TEGIST THE LAWS OF POWER HALL POLITICS BURNING BRIDGES SPLIT OR STEAL Edition 3 February’13 The KGPian Game Theory Society

The Strategist February, 2013

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Page 1: The Strategist February, 2013

LETS PLAY A GAME

simple. possible three, the third one. That is, combined probability of car being Dust the Grime of your brain cells and your chance of winning the car is 1/3. behind door 2 or door 3 is 2/3 and try to recollect Baye's Theorem (Yep, But, if you switch, you get yourself a since it is not behind door 2 the back to good old JEE days!) probability that the car is behind door So, here we go! Earlier when you were asked by the host to choose a door, you will agree with me that you had a 1/3 chance of winning the car. Now, after the host reveals a door (not

So dear reader, what do you think? selected by you) having a fish, there Should you switch your door or not? are three routes.Is it that you have chosen the right Suppose door 1 contains a fish, door 2 door and now the game show host is again a fish, and door 3, the car. Now deliberately trying to mislead you into there could be three possible ways of

playing the game:choosing the wrong door? After all, brand new car in two out of the

1. You chose door 1, host opens the the host is a crony of the people 3 is now 2/3. So it would be advisable possible three ways. That's 2/3 2nd, and then asks you to make the paying for the car and they definitely to switch the door. Thus you double doubling your probability of winning switch if you wish. your chances of winning if you don't want you to win it! Think for a the car. 2. You chose door 2, host opens the switch! So, the poor game show host, while before we give you the answer. Another way of understanding this is 1st, and then asks you to make the whom you suspected of trying to in the following way: switch if you wish. derail your chances of winning, is Done? Need help? Suppose you chose door 1 initially, 3. You chose door 3, host opens either willingly or unwillingly actually on All right then, we suggest you should your chances of winning are 1/3 of 1st or 2nd door, and then asks you your side!better thank the host for his very (since the car can be behind any of the to make the switch.generous offer and switch your three doors). So the probability that Now, if you stick to your decision choice! But how does it really matter, the car is behind either door 2 or door even when you are offered a switch, you ask? There would only be two 3 is 1 – 1/3 = 2/3. Since the car is not you have a chance of winning the car possible outcomes, you say-either behind door 2 - the one, which the only through one route out of the you win the car or not. Well it isn't that hosts open to reveal trash but still the

ave you ever watched the Television game show 'Khul Ja Sim here comes the interesting part. Your host (who, by the way, knows Sim'? You might not have been lucky enough to be on the exactly what is behind each door) opens one of the doors (not chosen by Hshow. So here we offer you a chance to play this game with you) that contains the fish. And now, the host offers you another

us.You are standing before three closed doors. One lucky door leads to opportunity and asks if you want to switch your choice to the other door your dream car and the other two conceal complete trash that makes which is still closed.

TIME TO PUT ON YOUR THINKING CAPS!your host go “TAI TAI FISH”. Now, you are given the chance to choose any one of them. Let's say you choose one of the three at random. Now

Switching NotSwitching

Case 1 Win Lose

Case 2 Win Lose

Case 3 Lose Win

Door 1 Door 2 Door 3

1/3 1/3 1/3

1/3 2/3

1/3 FISH 2/3

ello folks. The KGPian Game Theory Society is back with another edition of The Strategist- a periodic paper that aims to spread the culture of strategic thinking among KGPians. Started in April 2012, The Strategist is Hnow the most widely read campus paper of IIT Kharagpur with the highest online viewership*- we thank you

for that! In this edition we have presented some original and inspired ideas in a manner that is easily comprehendible.In this edition, the new members of the society have contributed a lot in terms of articles and we as editors commend them for coming up with such wonderful articles. There is also a glossary of technical terms for those who are reading our paper for the first time. As you go through the articles like “Dilemmas of KGP Hall Politics” and “Never Outshine the Master” you will realize how integral role game theory plays in your day to day life. You will also notice how various game shows across the world and little battles of life can be won using the basic concepts of game theory.This edition also introduces “Channu” , the new cool avatar of the greatest game theorist of all time Chanakya! He will be your companion in this wonderful journey of strategies, supplying a new tip at every crossroad. Tips, that are bound to make you more successful in life. But beware! Channu is a strategist, and not a social worker! Not everything he suggests might sound like ideal behaviour for a good person, but it will surely get you what you want, even if that means manipulating your loved ones to achieve your goals. So feel free to appreciate the tips we offer, but use them only after applying your own experience and conscience. And with that we welcome you to take plunge into the fascinating world of strategic thinking. *As per number of views on issuu.com

WELCOME TO CHANNU'S WORLD!

Visit Our FB page facebook.com/The.KGTS

STR TEGISTTHELAWS

OFPOWER

HALLPOLITICS

BURNINGBRIDGES

SPLITOR

STEAL

Edition 3February’13 The KGPian Game Theory Society

Page 2: The Strategist February, 2013

The KGPian Game Theory Society The Strategist 2

Game: An interaction among rational other players do, the strategy earns a (Cooperate, Cooperate)

players (individuals or groups) such cooperate Betray player a larger payoff than any other. would have been a better strategic

that the decisions of some players In the above situation you may profile for the players but still they

have an impact on the benefit to other observe that for Player A, Betrayal is would go for the dominant strategy as

players. A game is described by its the dominant strategy since whatever defecting of one player from

players, their actions and their player B chooses A will get a higher (Cooperate, Cooperate) could lead to

corresponding payoffs. payoff(i.e. lesser loss) by betraying a huge fall in the payoff of other

Game Theory: Game Theory is the (0>-1) (-3>-5). player.

study of the strategic decision making the payoff matrix represents the Nash Equilibrium: It is a strategic Burning bridges: The act of

whenever two or more players are payoff of the row player and the profile from which no player would eliminating your options of escaping

involved in any cooperating or second entry represents the payoff of like to deviate as deviating from this or reversing your decisions.

conflicting situation. the column player. strategic profile would hurt the payoff For more on these terms refer to the

Payoffs: Payoffs in a game represent Rational Behaviour : Players are of the player. You may check for previous two editions of The

the utility gained (+ve)/ lost(-ve) by assumed to be rational, i.e. their only yourself that (Betrayal, Betrayal) is Strategist

the players depending on the actions objective is to maximise their own the Nash Equilibrium for the above .http://issuu.com/the.kgts/docs

taken by all the players in the game. payoff irrespective of whether their game. In general a game may have

Payoffs in a game are generally action increases or decreases the other multiple or no Nash Equilibriums.

represented in the form of a payoff player's payoff. Prisoner's Dilemma: The above

matrix. cooperate Betray Dominant Strategy: A strategy is matrix represents the prisoner's

cooperate Betray The first entry in dominant if, regardless of what any dilemma situation.

cooperate (-1,-1) (-5,0)

Betray (0,-5) (-3,-3)

BURNING YOUR BRIDGESof battle you cross the situation by assigning suitable will surely attack and you in all the bridge first payoffs for your actions taking into likelihood will lose the island.with your army in account the possible actions of But now let’s say you burn the order to claim the your enemy. bridge. The enemy again has the island. Well your same two options. However, you friend can also do 1.If both armies attack then both have only one- and that is to fight. the same. And if he lose their men, and since you are The enemy can see that if he d o e s h e c a n both equally strong nobody wins. attacks so will you and he gets a challenge you to Both have negated the enemy’s payoff of 1. But if he concedes he fight for the island. claim but have also lost enough gets 2. Clearly conceding will be a Do remember, to a men. Let us give a payoff(1,1) to wiser choice for him and you will wise king both. have increased your chances of

winning the island.2.If one attacks and other concedes the payoffs are(3,2) . 3 to attacking But now let's say you burn the

wants to one and 2 to receding one. Since bridge. The enemy again has the avoid the fight. At conceding a battle causes less dent same two options. However, you the same t ime to the economy and human have only one- and that is to fight. another part also resource the payoff 2>1 has been The enemy can see that if he

ou are the legendary strives for the island and doesn't assigned to the conceder . For he attacks so will you and he gets a K I N G o f P e r s i a - want to lose it. So the best case has lost the island but lives to fight payoff of 1. But if he concedes he powerful, majestic and Y scenario for you would be for your another day in future Keeping the gets 2. Clearly conceding will be a

ambitious. Near the shores of your opponent to surrender his claim on above in mind, SHOULD YOU wiser choice for him and you will kingdom, there is an unclaimed the island. BURN THE BRIDGE OR NOT? have increased your chances of island with many riches and winning the island.resources apt for a king for making Well, your Army has crossed the Let’s say you want to play safe and Indeed your minister is a wise man his kingdom shine. It's for sure you bridge. Just when you are about to don’t burn the bridge. Now your and burning your bridges is in your want that island. But nothing is set up a camp for your men your enemy has two options: attack or best interest. This strategy has won without sweat. In your minister says “Your majesty, I concede. If you respond to the historically been applied by many n e i g h b o u r i n g c o u n t r y think we should burn and destroy attack you get a payoff of 1 but if armies and is still in use today.Shehjanabad , lives your rival king, our bridge!” You are confused by you retreat and go back to Persia as powerful, majestic and greedy this insane advice to eliminate you save resources and get a higher as you. And he also has an eye on t h e o n l y payoff of 2. that island. Now comes the transport route Thus in a important part. There's a bridge you have. Now, i t u a t i o n between your country and the WEAR YOUR where you island. Same is condition for his T H I N K I N G face a strong part. C A P S , a n d enemy and Both of you want complete control m a k e A h a v e a n over the island and its wealth and D E C I S I O N o p t i o n o r hence your only option is war and WHETHER TO BURN THE retreat, conceding will be in your since both of you don't really have BRIDGE OR NOT. Be quick! best interest. The enemy can a naval force this would imply a TIME'S RUNNING OUT and you foresee this. If he attacks and you land battle on the island, for which don't know what decision your retreat (which you likely will) he you'll need to cross your respective rival had made. To enable you to gets payoff 3 whereas by bridges. Now, suppose on the day make this descision , let's analyse conceding he only gets 2. So he

his men are as important as his kingdom, due to which one part of you

...But now let's say you burn the bridge. The enemy again has the same two options.However, you have only one- and that is to fight...

PLAYER B

TERMS USED IN THIS EDITION

Senchandra

Page 3: The Strategist February, 2013

LAWS OF POWER: NEVER OUTSHINE THE MASTER

f i r e w o r k s f o l l o w e d b y a committing harmless mistakes. A GP is a place full of A LESSON FROM master who cannot bestow on you talented individuals with THE PRESENT:the gifts of his experience may a desire to excel in all K The above story about the fall of want you out of sight. Remember fields of life. However it is also a Nicolas Fouquet may have led those high school teachers who some of you to say that we are well place with a strong culture of could not bear the sight of you past the times of kings and hierarchy-most prominent in the simply because you were smarter dictatorships. So let's take a look Gymkhana and the Halls of than them?at similar incident from modern Residence. It is this culture that It is not a weakness to disguise day India. When the first season

leads to people trying to y o u r of the famous constantly prove their worth and strengths if I n d i a n attract attention of those above in the end P r e m i e r

they lead to them. It's a practice that you will League came power. By u p , i t w a s come across even more after your l e t t i n g marked with graduation. However, in your o t h e r s international desire to please and impress your

v iewersh ip , o u t s h i n e masters, do not go too far in skimpily clad you, you

displaying your talents or you cheerleaders, might accomplish the opposite - l a t e n i g h t inspiring fear and insecurity and alcohol parties and extensive performance by Moliere, who was cause your own downfall. Let us media coverage of one man- Mr. considered to be the greatest

L a l i t M o d i , i t s C h i e f understand this fact through some master of comedy in Europe. The Commissioner and an employee examples. party ran well into the night and of the BCCI, who himself was everyone agreed it was the most often found posing with pretty amazing affair they had ever seen. A LESSON FROM women in these extravagant The next day, T H E parties. Overnight the IPL had Fouquet was PAST: made Mr. Modi a celebrity, while arrested by the his counterparts and seniors k i n g ' s m e n . including the BCCI president N i c o l a s Three months Sharad Pawar still led the Fouquet , later he went on background life of a government L o u i s trial for stealing official. In 2010 after 2 successful X I V ' s f r o m t h e editions of the IPL Modi was f i n a n c e c o u n t r y ' s remain in control, instead of being charged with corrupt practices and t r e a s u r y m i n i s t e r a victim of their insecurity. This stripped off his post. He was (actually, most in the first will all come in handy the day you replaced by Mr. Chirayu Amin, a of the stealing he was accused of years of his reign, was a generous decide to rise above your present relatively less flamboyant person. had been done on the king's behalf man who loved lavish parties, status.Modi now has multiple warrants and with the king's permission) pretty women, poetry and gold. issued against him and leads a life and was sent to the most isolated Fouquet was clever and very much TURNING THE TIDE:of exile in London. prison in France, where he spent indispensable to the king, so when

If it is the highest power you seek, What do you think now, can you the last twenty years of his life in the prime minister, Jules Mazarin, and your superior is a falling star, see a stark similarity in the manner solitary confinement.died, in 1661, the finance minister there is nothing to fear from of unfolding of above events with

was expected to be named the th outshining him. Do not be those of 17 century France? INTERPRETATION:successor. Instead, the king merciful-your master had no such Could it be that for nearly 3 years

The evening of the party, as decided to abolish the position. scruples in his own cold-blooded the BCCI, the largest cricketing

Fouquet presented spectacle on This and other signs made climb to the top. Gauge his body in the world had no

spectacle to Louis he thought he Fouquet suspect that he was strength. If he is weak, discreetly knowledge of Mr. Modi 's

was demonstrating his loyalty and falling out of favor, and so he hasten his downfall: Outdo, practices or was it is his sudden

devotion to the king. Instead, each decided to ingratiate himself with outcharm and outsmart him at key rise to fame and a constant

appreciative smile bestowed by the king by staging the most spec-moments. If he is very weak and limelight that had put him out of

the guests on Fouquet, made it tacular party the world had ever ready to fall, let nature take its favor with those above him? We

seem to Louis that his own friends seen. The party's apparent purpose course. Do not risk outshining a take a diplomatic step here and

and subjects were more charmed would be to commemorate the feeble superior-it might appear leave it for you to answer these

by the finance minister than by the completion of Fouquet's chateau, cruel and people (be it your questions.

king himself. Rather than but its real function was to pay society members, batchmates or

flattering Louis XIV, Fouquet's tribute to the king and sing songs office colleagues) may turn on

elaborate party offended the king's of his greatness. PRACTICING THE you. But if your master is firm in The most brilliant nobility of vanity. Louis would not admit this LAW: his position, yet you know Europe attended the party. The to anyone, of course - instead, he K n o w i n g t h e d a n g e r s o f yourself to be the more capable, party had a lavish seven-course found a convenient excuse to get outshining your master, you can bide your time and be patient. (In dinner which was accompanied himself rid of the man who had turn this Law to your advantage. the case of KGP, we advise you to with music and songs to honor the inadvertently made him feel ndFirst you must flatter and puff up wait at least till the end of your 2 king. After dinner there was a insecure. Fouquet was later your master. Be discreet. If you are year). It is the natural course of leisure walk through the chateau's replaced by Jean-Baptiste Colbert, more intelligent than your master, things that power eventually fades gardens for which Fouquet a man famous for his parsimony for example, seem the opposite. and weakens. Your master will fall personally accompanied the and for giving the dullest parties in State him as the cause of all your someday, and if you play it right, young king. At the garden's canal Paris. accomplishments. Make it seem you will outlive and someday was an extravagant show of that you need his expertise by

“.....each appreciative smile bestowed by the guests on Fouquet, made it seem to Louis that his own friends and subjects were more charmed by the finance minister than by the king himself....”

"....Could it be that for nearly 3 years the BCCI, the largest cricketing body in the world had no knowledge of Mr. Modi's practices or was it is his sudden rise to fame and a constant limelight that had put him out of favor with

The KGPian Game Theory Society The Strategist 3

Vaibhav Bhargava

Page 4: The Strategist February, 2013

WHEN VAN PERSIE BURNT HIS BRIDGESfactors mentioned above. bridges wi th Arsenal and his one is for al l you Man-Running down the contract is a effectively putting himself in the U fans out there!Robin Van risky matter. He was on a hot streak transfer market as Arsenal didn't Persie a.k.a RVP was the Tthen and he would be less of a have any options left other than captain of Arsenal Football Club hotcake as he would turn 30 by selling him or keeping an unhappy and was voted best player in the then. The wages he would be player for a year and then losing English Premier League. By the offered after one year would be him for free.end of the 2011-12 season of the inferior too. There was also a Thus RVP assumed that this EPL, he had one year left in his possibility of injury which would message would kick off a chain of contract. It was his 8th year at the derail any transfer move. But the events that would make him end up club . He was 29 at that time and only positive is that he would still at some big club abroad. But what generally the years, 33 to 35 are have a great connection with the happened was that Juventus was considered to be the twilight fans.Moving abroad is possibly the the only foreign club which was p e r i o d o f a p r o f e s s i o n a l best option available. It would interested in making an offer and footballer's career. All the long-safeguard all the factors. He would they got involved in a match-fixing term football contracts lie between earn great money along with major mess. Thus he had the only option 3 to 5 years. Thus, it was the last

of moving to Manchester as both major deal he could sign at any City and United were keen to sign football club . Though Arsenal is him. He chose MUFC probably financially stable but it doesn't due to the stability of the club have deep pockets like other clubs, unlike their neighbours. The result so the maximum they could offer wasn't strategically as good as was 150,000 per week. RVP moving abroad (when analysed at could get double the wages he that time). So even though RVP would get at Arsenal if he had used the art of burning bridges moved to another big club. It cleverly, factors which he had no would also mean greater chance of control of made him move to winning major trophies as the United.Gunners hadn't won anything for Though moving to United wasn't the past 8 years . Thus all the on his mind when he posted that factors indicate that leaving is the

honours. Fan reaction would also note, it isn't a bad outcome best possible option he could take. be less violent and more considering he is still in great form But the problem was that he was at understanding if he moved abroad. and on course to win the league.Arsenal for 8 years and had some Moving to City/United would also So RVP, dubbed 'The Flying lengthy injury spells, the general guarantee money and silverware There was a rumour at that time Dutchman', did fly indeed!perception among the fans was that but there would be huge backlash that some Italian clubs was he should payback the faith they from the fans and he would be seriously interested in securing a had in him - when Arsene Wenger branded as a villain and a betrayer. move for RVP. So RVP probably (manager of AFC) supported him

thought of moving abroad to What happened?through all those lengthy layoffs. Juventus and while doing so he RVP posted a message on his So he wou ld be he ld i n wanted to leave on a positive note p e r s o n a l w e b s i t e w i t h o u t considerable bad light if he left with the fans. If we look closely at informing the club - which in short Arsenal.his message, it is observed that he is:RVP had these options:tried to sympathize with the fans. ·Sign a contract at Arsenal.By posting this note while keeping ·Stay at Arsenal without signing the club in dark, he caught the contract.everyone off-guard. It definitely ·Move abroad.meant breakdown of all contract ·Move to Manchester City/ negotiations. Thus RVP made a Manchester United.great strategic move by burning The first option is ruled out due to

£

but unfortunately in this meeting it has again become clear to me that we in many aspects disagree on the way Arsenal FC should move forward . I've thought long and hard about it, but I have decided not to extend my contract. You guys, the fans, have of course the right to disagree with my view and decision and I will always respect your opinions.I love the club and the fans, no matter what happens. I have grown up and became a man during my time with Arsenal FC. Everybody at the club and the fans have

always supported me over the years and I have always given my all (and more) on and off the pitch.”

"I personally have had a great season but my goal has been to win trophies with the team and to bring the club back to its glory days.Out of my huge respect for Mr. Wenger ,the players and the fans I don't want to go into any details,

“........RVP made a great strategic move by burning bridges with Arsenal and effectively putting himself in the transfer market......”

WINNING BY LOSINGho does no t l ike have is a multiple of 5, you win since you lose every time. Playing remaining balance that is a winning? But have you INR 8. If not, you lose INR 6. Game B exclusively is also not so multiple of 5, you will win INR 8, ever thought that to win You are supposed to play 1000 appealing and is a losing strategy then play Game A and lose INR 3, W

you might actually have to lose times and start with an amount too, since you will lose three out of and play Game B again with first? You must have heard of the INR 100. You can every four times exactly INR 5 more, which reality show “Biggest Loser play any game, any you play( th ink guarantees you will continue to Wins”. Well, it is about how you number of times why). Thus, you win Game B indefinitely, netting lose weight to earn health and and in any order lose INR18 for INR 5 each time (INR 8 – INR 3).wealth. Similarly, losing a pawn or you want. every INR 8 you Hence, playing Game A or Game another chess piece is a strategy So what is the best win, for an average B alone may seem to be an unwise aiming at long run benefit of the profit can you net loss of INR choice. However if we play both of chess player. Game theory m a k e ? W h a t 2.50 per game. the individual losing games in a provides innumerous examples would be your However if Games par t i cu la r sequence (here where losing becomes essential strategy? A and B are played BABA…)the resultant game for winning, one of which is cited Well , the best i n a l t e r n a t i n g would be a winning game since the below. strategy is to play sequence of one loss in Game A paves way for an Consider two games, game A and t h e g a m e s g a m e o f B overall win in Game B. So here game B. Following are the rules: a l t e r n a t i v e l y followed by one you win by playing two losing Game A: The game is called (BABAB…). g a m e o f A games! You will notice another 'Loser'. As the name suggests, if H e r e i s a n ( B A B A B … ) , article in this edition that talks you play this game you will explanation- then you will win about 'Winning by Losing' but the definitely lose and pay INR 3. O b v i o u s l y in the long run, calculations involved are not Game B: The game is called 'Hi 5'. playing Game A because the first mathematical. Can you identify it? Here if the amount of money you exclusively is a losing proposition, time you play Game B with a

"...........Kabhi Kabhi Kuch Jeetne Ke Liya Kuch Haar Na Bhi Padta Hai....."

The KGPian Game Theory Society The Strategist 4

Sourya Kakarla (original)

Shyla Gangwar

Page 5: The Strategist February, 2013

e all know that the golden ball the participants are if you think the other player is contestant but not about you and prisoner's dilemma is a allowed to speak to each other i.e. going to split, it's clearly better to you should never reveal or give classic situation of the participants are given a fair steal, and if the other player is assurance to others that I am going W

game theory with a theoretical chance to come out of the going to steal, then stealing is just to pick steal or split. He may find outcome of 'non-cooperation'. In dilemma. In most of the episodes, as good as splitting. This means you unpredictable and play practice, however people are more the conversation ended up with a that convincing the other person optimistic by choosing split.decent and courteous than what promise from both participants to that you are going to "SPLIT" is an economists predict, apparently, split the money. But, in many a uphill battle since your opponent 2)The main task of conversation is that makes these dilemma cases one of them reneging on the can see that splitting is not in your to make the other person trust you. situations even more interesting. deal went on best interest. Appeal to his sense of honesty.

to cheat their “GOLDEN BALLS”, a British opponents. 2) Even if you 3)Watch out for 'body language' daytime game show, is a classic W h i l e i n convince the and 'non-verbal cues'. example of such dilemma s o m e other player to But what's interesting is that the situations. One of the most i n s t a n c e s , split, all that other person doesn't have to fully interesting segments of game is both players does is to give trust you for all this to work, so “Split or Steal”. The setup is pretty w e n t f o r the other player what happens is finally a surprise simple; there is a pool of money greed and a g r e a t e r that shows the need for combining and each of the two players got to share incent ive to math with anthropology and chooses either to split it (amongst p u b l i c steal. psychology.them) or to steal it. Proceedings of s h a m e the game is such that, after a brief instead of So the only ANALYSIS OF GOLDEN discussion for a minute or so both cash. r e a s o n a b l e BALLS GAME SHOWthe players have to reveal their options are to either not promise ON THE BASIS OF GENDER:-strategies independently and at the Now, assume you are a player in anything or to convince the other If both the players are female, they same time i.e. whether they choose such a situation. What would that you are going to "STEAL". It are more cooperative. Here goes to split or steal. you do? shouldn't be hard to convince the the statistics:

Clearly, your goal will be to get other person that you are going to ___________________________The rules are as follows: other person to play split, because steal, since stealing is in your "best S.NO TYPE OF TEAMS % of 1)If both players choose split, then that's the only way you are going interest". If he is convinced that times they choose splitthe whole money is evenly to get any money. So, your initial you are going to steal, the other ___________________________distributed among both. idea should be such as to convince person should be indifferent 1. female-female 50

your opponent that you are going between splitting and stealing, 2. male- male 452)If one of them chooses to split to play steal to make him think he since he doesn't get any money 3. female -male 44and the other chooses to steal then wasn't going to get anything either either way, but splitting will make __________________________ the one who has chosen steal gets way but could come off appearing him seem the better and more ON THE BASIS OF AGE:-the entire pool of money and the to be a cooperator by choosing to cooperative person on national People within the age range of 60 other goes empty hands. split. TV. are more likely to be cooperative

WHY WOULD THIS WORK??? as compared to those between 19 -3)If both chooses steal both of Firstly, trying to convince your If you wish to follow a different 30.them go home empty handed. opponent that you are going to strategy than to convince the other We encourage you to find

split should be a non-starter, for that you will "steal" you should instances in daily life and business The big difference between the two reasons: keep following points in mind: when you have to chose between "PRISONER'S DILEMMA " and 1) The steal strategy dominates 1) In the conversation session, all 'split' and 'steal' and then apply this "GOLDEN BALLS" is that in (weakly) the split strategy because talk should be about the other knowledge.

SOPs. But when it comes to will lose the elections and hall A Voting for the pact is the dominant voting, it's the PACT and not SOPs will not find any support in strategy for each hall even though that decide the results. Apparently, subsequent elections. In fact voting for merit givesif given a choice, almost every “Voting for the pact” becomes the KGPian would prefer a system dominant strategy of Pact 2 in this where candidates are selected on case. This can be summarized in basis of their merit. Now, if this is the following table that reduces what we really want, what's this multi player game into a 2 keeping us from the desired player game by clubbing halls change? The answer to this together under pact:question is that every hall that Note: Payoff of voting for pact, seeks to contest for the GCs faces a when the other pact votes for merit

“ multi player prisoner's dilemma! is greater than, the situation in ll these candidates are It's evident that the hall President which both vote for merit. We hopeless. This GSec is plays a major role in determining notice that each pact has an Asuch a poltubaaz. The his hall's actions. Presidents from

results are based on appeasement, all the halls face two choices: To not performance!” How many encourage their Hall to vote for times have we heard our friends their pact OR to encourage a murmuring these words? And yet, neutral merit based voting. Now every year, be it the Gymkhana or suppose hall A of pact 1 decided to hall elections, the candidates are follow merit based voting. It is selected not on the basis of their very likely that the votes from this caliber, but some “other criteria”. hall will be distributed almost Pacts are made and accordingly equally among the candidates of incentive to deviate from (MERIT, a better payoff in the long run. candidates contest for the the two pacts. If other halls follow MERIT Perhaps, that's why fair elections at auspicious elections. Hundreds of suit, this will lead to fair elections. while there is no incentive to IIT Kharagpur bright minds gather in the But what if the majority of halls deviate from (PACT, PACT) which are a latent dream.basketball court to listen to the stick to the pact? Clearly Pact 1 is the Nash Equilibrium. Clearly,

SPLIT OR STEAL

THE DILEMMAS OF KGP HALL POLITICS

VOTE FOR MERIT VOTE FOR PACT

VOTE FOR MERIT (2,2) (- 1,3)

VOTE FOR PACT (3,-1) (1,1)

The KGPian Game Theory Society The Strategist 5

Charitha Reddy

(Original idea)

Page 6: The Strategist February, 2013

If you enjoyed going through the Differences between CAT & questions in GMAT are relatively TEAM STRATEGISTarticles in this edition it is likely GMAT : easy. Mentorthat you are among those who wish Manoj Gadia·Writing skills are not tested in the ·Students typically struggle with to pursue your post graduation in Executive EditorsCAT. The GMAT has an Analytical data sufficiency in GMAT as this a the field of business then you are DeepantWriting Ability (AWA) section . new question type for most.

Sahillikely to give GMAT and/or cat. A Weight age for Data Sufficiency in ·Critical Reasoning (CR)has not common question that arises in the EditorsGMAT is very high (almost 50% been a significant area in the CAT minds of MBA aspirants across the Akshatof the quant section), whereas in recent years. In the GMAT, Vaibhavcountry is whether they should CAT presented not more than 4 Academic and Design Headsabout 30% of questions in the take the CAT and join the IIMs or Anuragquestions on Data Sufficiency in Verbal Ability section are of GMAT (conducted by the Ayushrecent years. Critical Reasoning. HarikaGraduate Management Admission Shipra·GMAT is an adaptive test while Council ) and pursue their dreams ·Sentence Correction questions Poorva

CAT is just a linear computer abroad. Saurabhthat come in the GMAT are of based test. In an adaptive test like VibhorAlthough both are designed to test slightly different flavor when

AbhishekGMAT, you must answer every the aptitude of aspirants, there are compared to those in CAT. In question that comes on the screen some slight differences in the ContentGMAT, the emphasis is not only on to get to the next question. Unlike Rekha format and the type of questions the functional aspects of grammar

Dimplein CAT, you will not be allowed to that one might face in the two rules but also on contextual Pritha skip a question or to go back to an exams. Here we present to you a KumarKrishnaAgarwalmeaning and usage. There are already submitted in GMAT. This Devashishdetailed comparison. specific error types that are looked

Senchandramakes time management in at in the GMAT and familiarity The skills required to do well in SubhamoyGMAT quite tricky and you need Harshwith those types will be very both the examinations are quite to have a test taking strategy that Sagarhandy. similar. If you have already Naman Jainsuits you.prepared/appeared for CAT, a Sourya·R e a d i n g C o m p r e h e n s i o n

Charithamajor portion of your CAT passages in CAT and GMAT are Shyla gangwarpreparation is relevant for GMAT. In the coming editions we shall Riteshquite similar.Wi th a b i t o f add i t i ona l bring to you some strategies that

·The quantitative section in Designpreparation in the few areas of can be applied to crack these Pradeep RaoGMAT has two question types: divergence, you should be able to prestigious exams. Till then, Good ChandanProblem Solving and Data do well in GMAT also. MotivationLuck!Sufficiency. The problem solving Team KGTS

CAT OR GMAT

QUESTIONNAIREGame Theory has often been used in movies and TV series. For e.g take the case Gotham could fall for this trap, Batman decided to save the day!

of the movie Dark Knight where the Joker puts the people of Gotham in a Find similar instances of the application of game theory in some other movies/ TV

prisoner's dilemma by capturing them in two different ships that are loaded with serials or in your daily life and submit your write up to [email protected].

explosives. He gives a detonator each to both the ships and tells them that unless The best answers will be rewarded and printed in the next edition of The

one of them blows the other up, they will all die in a matter of time. He knew Strategist. So open your minds and pick up your pens!

that despite cooperation being the better strategy for the two ships, the dominant

strategy for each ship was to blow up the other. Fortunately before the people of

The KGPian Game Theory Society The Strategist 6