TRANSFORMER MONITORING MARKETS, 2013-2020: Technologies, Forecasts, and Leading Vendors, Ben Kellison, Smart Grid Analyst | GTM Research

GTM Research forecasts the annual market for transformer monitoring hardware in the U.S. to grow drastically from $113 million

in 2012 to more than $755 million in 2020. Utilities across the U.S. are beginning to turn to transformer technologies to improve

distribution reliability and efficiency as well as customer service and operating costs. In addition, more intelligent transformers will

play a key role in enabling other smart grid applications such as power quality monitoring, closed-loop volt/VAR control, improved

outage detection, and theft reduction.

At nearly 150 pages, Transformer Monitoring

Markets, 2013-2020: Technologies, Forecasts,

and Leading Vendors is the first

report of its kind to analyze both the

technology and competitive landscape

of transformer markets in the U.S. This

definitive report offers technology-

specific analysis to 2020 for:

• Transformer monitors and sensors

• Dissolved-gas analysis (DGA) monitors

• Bushing and Partial Discharge Systems

• Power and distribution transformer

software

• Secondary transformer software

solutions

• Geospatial analytics software solutions

The report also contains deep vendor analysis, comparison and rankings at the individual product level for many of the components

listed above for power, distribution and secondary transformers.

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Geospatial Analytics

Point Solutions Comprehensive Solutions Cloud Management Systems

Transformer Monitors/Gateway

DGA Monitors ResistiveTemperature Devices

Fiber OpticTemperature Sensors Bushing Monitors Partial Discharge

Geospatial Analytics

Point Solutions

Transformer Monitors

Power Transformers Secondary Transformer

SOURCE: GTM RESEARCH

Transformer Monitoring Taxonomy 2013

Companies Analyzed in the report include:

Alstom Grid | Ambient | BPL Global | Cooper Power Systems | Doble Engineering | Dynamic Ratings | Echelon | Elster | General Electric

GRIDiant | GridSense | Grid 20/20 | Infosys | LumaSense | Morgan Schaffer | Qualitrol | S&C Electric | Schneider Electric

Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories | Siemens | Space-Time Insight | Ventyx

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND KEY FINDINGS

1.1 Executive Summary

1.2 Key Findings

1.2.1 Transition To Smart Transformers

1.2.2 Vendor Landscape

1.2.3 The Transformer Market

2 THE TRANSITION TO MORE INTELLIGENT TRANSFORMER ECOSYSTEMS

2.1 The Creation And Support Of Smart Power/Distribution Transformers

2.2 Big Data And Transformer Asset Health

2.3 Power/Distribution Transformer Failure Conditions

2.4 Intelligence At Secondary Transformers

2.5 Drivers And Barriers In The Transformer Monitoring Market

2.5.1 Transformer Monitoring Drivers

3 THE TRANSFORMER MONITORING ECOSYSTEM

3.1 Transformer Technologies

3.1.1 Transformer Monitors And Sensors

3.1.2 On-Line Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) Monitors

3.1.3 Temperature Sensors

3.1.4 Bushing And Partial Discharge Systems

3.1.5 Load Tap Changer DGA, Position, And Motor Current

3.1.6 Metering

3.1.7 Communications

3.1.8 Power And Distribution Transformer Software

3.1.9 Secondary Transformer Software Solutions

3.1.10 Geospatial Analytics Software Solutions

3.2 Transformer Monitoring Taxonomy

4 COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT

4.1 The Big Players

4.1.1 ABB/Ventyx

4.1.2 Alstom Grid

4.1.3 General Electric

4.1.4 Schneider Electric

4.1.5 Siemens

4.2 Positioning Through M&A And Partnerships

4.3 Sub-Markets

4.3.1 Transformer Monitors

4.3.2 DGA Monitors

4.3.2.1 Single Gas Monitors

4.3.2.2 Multi-Gas Monitors

4.3.2.3 Comprehensive Monitors

4.3.3 Power Transformer Software Solutions

4.3.4 Secondary Transformer Monitor

4.3.5 Secondary Transformer Software Solutions

4.3.6 Geospatial Analytics Software

5 MARKET FORECAST

5.1 The Us Transformer Fleet 2012-2020

5.1.1 Power Transformer Stock

5.1.1.1 Generator Step-Up Power (GSU) Transformer Estimate

5.1.1.2 Transmission Transformer Estimate

5.1.1.3 Total Power Transformers in the United States

5.1.2 Distribution Transformer Stock

5.1.3 Secondary Transformer Stock

5.2 New Transformers 2012-2020

5.2.1 Modeling The Power Transformer Market

5.2.2 Modeling The Distribution Substation Transformer Market

5.2.3 Modeling The Secondary Transformer Market

5.3 Monitoring And Sensing Hardware Forecast

5.3.1 Power and Distribution Transformer Monitor Forecasts

5.3.2 Transformer Monitor Forecasts

5.3.3 DGA Monitor Forecasts

5.3.4 Temperature Monitor Forecasts

5.3.5 Bushing Monitor Forecasts

5.3.6 Secondary Transformer Monitoring and Sensing Hardware Forecast

6 CONCLUSION

7 VENDOR PROFILES

7.1 System Providers

Cooper Power Systems

Doble Engineering

General Electric

Qualitrol

Schneider Electric

7.2 Equipment Providers

BPL Global

Dynamic Ratings

GridSense

LumaSense

Morgan Schaffer

Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories 7.3 Software Providers

GRIDiant

Infosys

S&C Electric Co.

Space-Time Insight 7.4 Solid State Distribution Equipment Providers

Ambient Corporation

Current Group

Echelon

Elster

eMeter

LIST OF FIGURES

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND KEY FINDINGS

• Transformer Coverage Of This Report

• Transformer Monitoring Market Forecast,

2012-2020

• DGA Analysis Tool Sample Success

• U.S. Power Transformer Demand, 2012-2020

• Yearly Distribution Transformer Demand,

2012-2020

• Secondary Transformer Demand, 1996-2020

• Predicted Legacy Transformer Failures In Load

Capacity By Year In The U.S.

2 THE TRANSITION TO MORE INTELLIGENT TRANSFORMER ECOSYSTEMS

• Transformer Monitoring Data Complications

• Catastrophic Transformer Failures

• Transformer Functional Failure Model

• Types of Transformer Failures

• Cause of Power Transformer Failure, 1991-2010

• Frequency/Severity of Transformer Faults

• Failure Distribution by Vintage

• Transformer Monitoring Drivers

• Transformer Monitoring Barriers

3 THE TRANSFORMER MONITORING ECOSYSTEM

• Power Transformer and Secondary

Transformer Sensor Ecosystem

• Example Parameters for Transformer Monitors

• Types of Transformer Monitors

• Transformer Monitoring Taxonomy

4 COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT

• Major International Transformer

Manufacturers Market Share (2011)

• Grid Giants Transformer Monitoring Eco-

System Rankings

• Grid Giants Product and Company Comparison

• ABB Ventyx End-to-End Asset Management

• GE Grid IQ Applications and Benefits

• Siemens ISCM Solution

• eMeter Clients

• Company Activities in Transformer Monitoring

• Transformer Monitors by Functionality

• Transformer Monitor Rankings

• Product Comparison Chart Key

• Transformer Monitor Comparison

• DGA Monitor Rankings

• Single-Gas DGA Vendor Comparison

• Multi-Gas DGA Vendor Comparison

• Comprehensive Gas DGA Vendor Comparison

• Hardware Agnostic Software

• Types of Fleet-Level Power Transformer

Software Solutions

• Power Transformer Software Rankings

• Power Transformer Software Solutions

• Secondary Transformer Monitoring

Hardware Ranking

• Secondary Transformer Monitors Comparison

• Secondary Transformer Monitoring

Software Rankings

• Secondary Transformer Software Solutions

• Sample Geospatial Analytics Dashboard

• Geospatial Asset Health Analytics Vendor

Comparison

• Geospatial Analytics Vendor Comparison

5 MARKET FORECAST

• Transformer Monitoring Forecasting Difficulty

• Equipment/Software included in The Forecast

• Transformer Monitoring Hardware Forecast,

2012-2020

• Yearly installment ofLarge Power Transformers

in The United States, 1948-2006

• U.S. Transformer Stock in 2012

• U.S. GEneration Facilities by Nameplate Capacity

• GSU Transformer Stock, 2012

• United States’ Power Transformer Stock in 2012

• United States’ Distribution Transformer

Stock, 2012

• United States’ Secondary Transformer Stock

• U.S. Large Power Transformer (100 MVA)

Demand, 1996-2030

• Power Transformer Demand, 2012-2020

• Distribution Substation Transformer Market

• Historical Secondary Transformer Shipments

by Unit

• Historical Secondary Transformer Shipments

by Capacity

• Variables in Secondary Market Prediction

• Utility-Owned Liquid-Immersed Secondary

Transformer Market

• Transformer Monitoring Market by Product

• Power Transformer Monitoring Demand and

Price Forecast by Technology, 2012-2020

• Power Transformer Retrofit Monitoring

Demand and Price Forecast by Technology,

2012-2020

• Distribution Transformer Monitoring Demand

and Price Forecast by Technology, 2012-2020

• Distribution Retrofit Transformer Monitoring

Demand and Price Forecast by Technology,

2012-2020

• Power Transformer DGA Monitor Demand and

Price Forecast by Technology, 2012-2020

• Power Transformer Retrofit DGA Monitor

Demand and Price Forecast by Technology,

2012-2020

• Distribution Transformer DGA Monitor

Demand and Price Forecast by Technology,

2012-2020

• Distribution Transformer Retrofit DGA

Monitor Demand and Price Forecast by

Technology, 2012-2020

• Power Transformer Temperature Monitoring

Demand and Price Forecast by Technology,

2012-2020

• Power Transformer Retrofit Temperature

Monitoring Demand and Price Forecast by

Technology, 2012-2020

• Distribution Transformer Temperature

Monitoring Demand and Price Forecast by

Technology, 2012-2020

• Distribution Transformer Retrofit Temperature

Monitoring Demand and Price Forecast by

Technology, 2012-2020

• Power Transformer New and Retrofit Bushing

Monitor Demand and Price Forecast by

Technology, 2012-2020

• Power Transformer New and Retrofit Bushing

Monitor Demand and Price Forecast by

Technology, 2012-2020

• Secondary Transformer New and Retrofit

Demand and Price Forecast, 2012-2020

6 CONCLUSION

• Transformer Monitoring Market by

Transformer Class

SAMPLE FIGURES & ANALYSIS

This report covers the market for generator

step-up and transmission transformers,

which together are described as power

transformers; distribution transformers,

which depending on the focus of the

analysis may be included as power

transformers or broken out separately;

and utility-owned vault, pad-, and pole-

mount secondary transformers, which are

referred to as secondary transformers.

TYPE COVERED CATEGORY CAPACITYSECONDARY

VOLTAGELOCATION

Generator Step-Up

Yes Power Transformers > 60 MVA > 69 kV Power Plant

Transmission Yes Power Transformers > 60 MVA > 69 kVTransmission Substation

Distribution YesDistribution or Power Transformers

5 MVA to 60 MVA 4 kV-69kVDistribution Substation

Specialty - Renewables

No Specialty Varies > 4 kVWind/Solar

Farms

Vault Yes Secondary 10 kVA-5 MVA 120V-69kVCustomer Premise

Pad-Mount Yes Secondary 10 kVA-5 MVA 120V-13kVCustomer Premise

Pole-Mount Yes Secondary 10 kVA-5 MVA 120V-440VCustomer Premise

Commercially Owned

No Customer-Owned - 120V-230kVCustomer Premise

Industry-Owned No Customer-Owned - 120V-230kVCustomer Premise

Transformer Technology Definitions & Report Scope

Transformer Monitoring Market by Transformer Class

Transformer monitoring has traditionally

been driven by a focus on asset

management at the power transformer

level. The spread of field area networks,

the demand for edge grid data, and the

time delay associated will create demand

for monitors at the transformer level that

will ramp up to exceed the traditional

power transformer market by 2015.

SAMPLE FIGURES & ANALYSIS

The transformer monitoring market is

slowly transitioning to more technologically

advanced devices. The march towards

a more orderly back-office to acquire,

manage, route, and analyze data and

alarm conditions will continue to increase

the value of these devices as hardware

prices slowly fall. Even as more advanced

devices proliferate, the bulk of the market

will still consist of digital relays and simple

transformer monitors with basic functionality.

Power Transformer Monitoring Demand by Technology, 2012-2020

Grid Giants Transformer Monitoring Eco-System Rankings

RANK VENDOR DESCRIPTION

1 ABB

ABB takes a slight edge over the rest of the giants with the integration of Ventyx and subsequent investment in connecting its asset management capabilities, Ventyx’s in-house business intelligence, and decades of transformer servicing experience makes ABB’s solution more robust than the other grid giants. Ventyx’s longer-term focus on innovation in asset management shows the strong commitment ABB has to the space.

2 Siemens

Siemens has been slightly outpaced by ABB as both continue to focus on end-to-end lifecycle management. The long-time presence in the transformer space coupled with an open monitoring platform, and two fleet monitoring solutions in its ISCM and TDMS products, its analytics-based involvement in secondary transformer monitoring, and strong partner network create the most diverse portfolio among the grid giants. However, Siemens’ laser focus on large power transformers limits its potential market and reduces its opportunity to grow.

3 GE

GE comes up a solid third among the grid giants with a growing strength and investment in the space, focusing on developing or acquiring a full range of equipment for the field, while slowly building the software to enable these systems. Strong investment in the sector has provided the greatest breadth of advanced sensors among any of the grid giants. Its Perception software does not wow with its relatively closed platform. However, its cloud-based hosted management solution could significantly enhance the company’s marketability among certain utility demographics. Continued development of analytics capabilities will be key for the continued advancement of its portfolio.

4 Alstom GridFalling to a distant fourth, Alstom’s small portfolio and lack of public capability development plans greatly diminish its stature. Alstom’s only product in the market is an advanced transformer monitor with extensive local diagnostic capabilities, but it currently lacks enterprise software to aggregate and analyze data.

5 Schneider ElectricThe Schneider Electric PowerLogic platform provides strong insight into grid operation, but it lacks specific focus on transformer health and the advanced sensor backing to provide the deep insight into transformer health, leaving Schneider on the outside looking in. The company will likely continue to be a passive observer of the market beyond the distribution grid.

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CO

NT

AC

T: Ben Kellison

Smart Grid Analyst

kellison@gtmresearch.com

+1 347 725 3510

Tate Ishimuro

Research Account Manager

ishimuro@greentechmedia.com

+1 415 777 9917

A Greentech Media Company

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TRANSFORMER MONITORING MARKETS, 2013-2020: Technologies, Forecasts, and Leading Vendors, Ben Kellison, Smart Grid Analyst | GTM Research