Volcanic Disaster Mitigation Framework of Japanvuelco.net/documents/1_3_Kanno.pdf · •Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System in Japan –Promotion of Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System

Tomoyuki KANNO

Volcano Division, Earthquake and Volcano Department,

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System in Japan - Volcanic Disaster Management Council, Volcanic Alert Levels

and Evacuation Plan -

VUELCO 2nd WORKSHOP “Scientific advice, decision-making, risk communication” on Nov. 7th –8th, 2013

Fujisan

• Introduction

– Volcano Monitoring by JMA

– Outline of disaster measures

• Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System in Japan

– Promotion of Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System

– Guidelines for evacuation in case of volcanic eruption

• Volcanic Disaster Management Council

• Volcanic Alert Levels

• Specific and practical Evacuation Plan

• Asamayama eruption in 2009 and Shinmoedake

Eruption in 2011 as case studies

• Conclusion

– Large eruptions will occur in 21st century in Japan 1

Contents

• Introduction











• Conclusion


Contents

N32°

N28°

N24°

E140° E144°

Ogasawara Islands Pacific Plate

Philippine Sea Plate

Distribution of Active Volcanoes in Japan and

Volcanic Observations and Information Centers

Ryukyu Islands

active volcano

• 110 active volcanoes in Japan. (Active volcanoes in Japan are defined as ‘volcanoes

that have erupted in approximately the last 10,000 years’

and/or ‘volcanoes with vigorous fumarolic activity at

present’)

3

Ryukyu Islands

N32°

N28°

N24°

E140° E144°

Ogasawara Islands

active volcano

VOIC

• 110 active volcanoes in Japan.

• 4 Volcanic Observations and Information Centers

in JMA.

4

Sapporo VOIC

Sendai VOIC

Tokyo VOIC

Fukuoka VOIC

Distribution of Active Volcanoes in Japan and

Volcanic Observations and Information Centers

Distribution of active volcanoes in Japan. The names of 47 volcanoes

that are continuously monitored by JMA are indicated in the figure.

GPS

100m depth borehole

tiltmeter

seismometer

Infrasonic

microphone

An example of a volcanic

observation facility.

Volcano monitoring by JMA

5

傾斜計

High-sensitive Visual Camera

Seismometer Infrasonic Microphone

GPS

Tiltmeter

Volcano Observation and Information Centers (Sapporo, Sendai, Tokyo, Fukuoka)

Real-time telemeter

Mobile Observation (Thermal, Geodetic, Geomagnetic etc.)

Volcano monitoring by JMA

6

Ryukyu Islands

N32°

N28°

N24°

E140° E144°

Ogasawara Islands

• Monitoring, processing data and issuing volcanic information.

• Renewed in 2010.

• 2 core processing systems at Tokyo & Fukuoka.

active volcano

VOIC VOIS(Volcano Observation and Information center’s System)

Sapporo VOIC

Sendai VOIC

Tokyo VOIC

Fukuoka VOIC

Tokyo VOIS

Fukuoka VOIS

Volcanic Observations and Information center’s

System (VOIS)

7

Dissemination of Volcanic Warnings

• Volcanic Warnings are issued to residents through the media, prefectural offices

and local municipalities.

8

１９７４～

Members :

Volcanologists and public offices

Universities

Research Institutes

(NIED, GSJ, PWRI)

Geological Survey Institute

Cabinet Office

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure

and Transport

Ministry of Education

Japan Coast Guard

Japan Meteorological Agency

(Secretariat)

Regular meeting: 3 times/year

Working groups:

Volcanic activity evaluation working

group

Selection of active volcanoes

Selection of 47 volcanoes etc.

Volcano observation system working

group

Coordinating Committee for Prediction of Volcanic

Eruption (CCPVE)

9

- Promoting comprehensive countermeasures against disasters

- Established in the Cabinet Office

Prime Minister, Minister of State for Disaster Management

Inquiry Report, Offer opinion

Organizations for Technical Investigation

10

Central Disaster Management Council

Central Disaster Management Council Chairman Prime Minister

Members

of the

Council

Minister of

State for

Disaster

Management

and all Cabinet

Ministers

Chief of Designated Public Corporations

- Governor of the Bank of Japan

- President of the Japanese Red Cross Society

- President of NHK

- President of NTT

Academic

experts

(4)

Administrative system for disaster reduction

- National, Prefectural and Municipal level -

Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act (enacted in 1961)

11

Responsible for protecting lives and properties of people in its administrative area from natural disasters

Establish its own disaster management system

- Establish and manage disaster reduction organizations such as

municipal disaster management council comprised of relevant

stakeholders in the municipalities, as well as fire-brigade and other

community-based disaster reduction groups

- Formulate and review plans and strategies such as municipal disaster

management plan, and securing necessary budget

- Conduct disaster reduction drills and exercises with wider participation of

residents, and enhance public awareness including through providing

hazard maps

- Secure stockpiles of emergency relief goods and other resources

Main responsibilities of municipalities

in the field of disaster reduction

12

First responder at the occurrence of natural disasters

- Collect disaster situation information and transmit it to prefectural government

- Communicate early warning information issued by Japan Meteorological Agency or other organizations to residents

- Mobilize fire-brigade and other resources

- Issue evacuation order/advisory

- Conduct emergency relief operations

- Establish emergency response headquarters

- Request necessary support from other municipalities an prefectural government

Ownership of recovery and rehabilitation in a smooth and strategic manner

- Secure early recovery of public facilities and debris removal

- Seek strategic reconstruction and rehabilitation with comprehensive planning in cooperation with relevant stakeholders

- Provide necessary support to rebuild livelihood of affected people

Main responsibilities of municipalities

in the field of disaster reduction (cont.)

13

• Introduction











• Conclusion


Contents

Usuzan Eruption

Deep low-frequency earthquakes beneath Fujisan

Chronology of promotion of

Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System in Japan

15

2011

2006

-08

2000

2001

-06

Making Fujisan Hazard map

Consideration Countermeasure against Fujisan eruption

Basic principle for wide-area disaster prevention system in

Fujisan

Consideration applying the system of Fujisan to other volcanoes

Volcanic Warnings and Volcanic Alert Levels started

Guideline for evacuation in case of volcanic eruption

Shinmoedake Eruption

Great East Japan Earthquake (M9.0) and Tsunamis

The Guideline was reflected in the Basic Disaster Management

Plan

Zone with possibility that crater appears Zone that people should evacuate immediately

Pyroclastic flow Volcanic cinders

Zone with possibility that lava flow reaches within 24 hours

Zone with volcanic mud flow by melting snow


Fujisan Hazard map

16 (Volcanic Disaster Management Council of Fujisan, 2004)

10km

Top

10km

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 3

Zone with possibility that crater appears

Zone with possibility that pyroclastic flow, volcanic cinders, lava flow reaches within 3 hours


Zone２

Zone 3

Zone１

17

Evacuation zone before eruption in non-snow season

Discovery system of abnormal phenomena System of information sharing Cooperation system with volcano specialist Promotion of cooperation across wide-area and setting of agreement

Volcanic Advisory (drawing attention): Strengthening of observation and reporting system. Volcanic Advisory (possibility with eruption): Holding of Coordinating

Committee for Prediction of Volcanic Eruption Volcanic Alert: Establishment of combination on-site precaution headquarters

Establishment of major disaster management headquarters etc. Establishment of combination on-site management headquarters.

Group organization with each function Decision making on-site Integrating and sharing of information Prediction of influence range

At the time of eruption

At the time of normal condition

At the time of volcanic information announcement from JMA. (Before eruption)

18

Establishment of wide-area disaster prevention

system in Fujisan

Measures of traffic（ Road traffic restriction, Railway operation restriction and Securing of safe operation of aircraft )

Measures of ash fall ( Grasping of condition, Removing ash )

Rescue activities

Medical measures for wide-area

Securing of house ( Emergency temporary housing, Permanent housing )

Economic support ( Payment of support money, money loaning at a low rate of interest )

Prevention of damage expansion by lava flow and debris flow

and so on 19

Emergency and restoration measures in Fujisan

Problem 2 : Improvement on Volcanic information of JMA

Problem 3: Clarify the commencing time of refuge, the refuge

region, means of escape, etc.

Problem 1: Construction of cooperative consideration

Consideration applying the system of Fujisan to other volcanoes (2006 - 2008) （ Secretariat: Cabinet Office, Fire and Disaster Management Agency,

Erosion and Sediment Control Department of MLIT and JMA）

Volcanic Alert Levels

Specific and practical evacuation plan

Volcanic Disaster Management Council

20

Guidelines for evacuation in case of volcanic eruption

Which route?

When?

Which area?

Which refuge?

Council (Preparedness) ・Establish council for consisting of municipalities, prefectures, regional brunches of central government

etc.

・Establish wide-area disaster management in preparation for evacuation beyond municipal borders.

・Core group leads conference activities.

・Make a Hazard map of volcanic disaster, concrete and practical evacuation plan, training etc.

Headquarter (in emergency）

・Establish headquarters composed of government staff and prefecture/city staff.

・Implement evacuation procedure, establishing shelters, receiving evacuees, ensuring transportation and regulating traffic.

Specific and practical evacuation plan ・Based on hazard map, they consider relationship between the volcanic alert levels and evacuation

area, time, route, place, the area of control for climbing. Then they make a concrete plan which has evacuation rules.

駒ケ岳火山　噴火シナリオと防災対応の想定（バスによる集団避難）経過時間

(1/17 0:30) (09:53) (11:00) (12:30)

噴火警戒レベル

22時間 23時間18時間 19時間 20時間 21時間10時間 11時間 16時間 17時間12時間 13時間 14時間 15時間 24時間1時間 2時間 3時間 4時間 5時間 6時間 7時間 8時間 9時間

バス

　　　

◆10分以上継続◆断続的に噴火◆微動・空振が増大傾向

　

◆微動・空振がさらに増大◆地殻変動を観測◆大噴火の可能性ありと判断

　

　◆プリニー式の噴火開始　◆噴煙は火口直上で数千m以上　◆山麓市街地で軽石が降下し始める ◆火砕流・火砕サージが発生（全方位に拡がる）　 ◆積雪期には融雪型泥流の発生

異常現象を観測火山性微動を観測

小噴火

小噴火継続噴火拡大噴火拡大

（中噴火）

大噴火発生噴火シナリオ１・噴火急に衰える

　２

２３５４１

２日間

避難準備広報

避難

一時集合

避難広報

バス出動と集結

一時集合

避難広報

警戒区域の設定検討（火口から２km）

第二次避難区域内警戒区域の設定（この時期に第二次避難区域の避難を開始するとした場合）警戒区域の設定検討（火口から４km）規制等

　２災害情報連絡室災害対策本部本部体制

避難広報

一時集合

避難バス要請と出動・集結

避難準備広報

＊バスについては、事前の準備ができていないと想定して、レベルが４になった　時点で要請を受け出動を開始し集結するものとして約１時間３０分と想定

一般住民避難

災害時要援護者避難

＊避難広報は巡回と周知にかかる時間として約２時間とした

＊災害時要援護者の歩行速度を考慮し、一時集合への時間を想定（一般住民より時間がかかる）

＊バスの繰り返し輸送（ピストン輸送）による集団避難で最も時間のかかる地区の時間を設定（約２時間２０分）

＊仮に第二次避難区域について、噴火拡大（中噴火）を見極めてからの避難開始と想定した場合、　火砕流・火砕サージが発生（全方位に拡がる）するまでの避難が間に合わないことになり、第一次　避難区域との同時期避難が必要となる

※昭和４年の噴火史実に基づき、経過時間を設定している(時間軸の日時は史実に基づく）

９時間１４時間

◆規模の大きな水蒸気爆発～マグマ水蒸気爆発◆火砕サージの発生◆山麓で降灰（数㎝）◆微動・空振が急激に増大

＊災害時要援護者対応も含めて、災害対策本部体制の確立が　必要な時期

◆水蒸気爆発◆山麓で微量の降灰

避難

＜第一次避難区域・第二次避難区域（同時避難）＞

＊バスについては、事前に出動準備が完了しているものとしてレベル５になった段階で出動・集結にかかる　時間を約１時間と想定した

＊バスの繰り返し輸送（ピストン輸送）による集団避難で最も時間のかかる地区の時間設定（約１時間）

避難準備

避難準備

＊避難広報を受けてから、一時集合を開始するまでの避難準備時間を約３０分と想定した

避難準備

Development of evacuation scheme

Assumption of Scenario and countermeasures for eruption

21

Guidelines for evacuation in case of volcanic eruption

Volcano Disaster Mitigation Council for Fuji volcano (June 2012)

Members of the Council

Prefectural and municipal Governments Meteorological Observatories of JMA Regional development bureaus (SABO) Volcanologists and experts (Core Group)

Forest offices, Survey departments, Environment offices, Coastguard, Self-Defense Force, Polices, Fire services, JR, Red Cross, NTT, etc.

Core Group of the Council for Sakurajima

Kagoshima Prefecture Kagoshima City Sakurajima Volcano Research Center of Kyoto University Osumi Office of River and National Highway (MLIT) Kagoshima Local Meteorological Observatory (JMA)

Core group of Volcano Disaster Mitigation Council for Sakurajima (July 2014)


22


Organization which works on volcano disaster measures such as refuge together.

Police

Fire Department

Self-Defense Forces

Japan Coast Guard

Forestry management

Environmental office

District survey part

Road department office

Other public offices

Red Cross Society

Regional development bureau

and so on

Core Group

Prefectural government

Meteorological Observatory Municipality

Erosion and Sediment Control

Bureau (Sabo) The member who participates in decision of refuge time and the refuge region deeply

Advice

Volcanologist (CCPVE Members)

Advice

Advice Advice

Advice is mainly about a setup of the refuge region, expansion, reduction and release.

23

Volcanic Disaster Management Council and Core Group based on a Basic Plan for Disaster Prevention


Volcanologist


Bureau

Meteorological Observatory

Municipality

Core Group members need to establish face-to-face relationships each other

24

Large volcanic blocks (2000 Usuzan)

Pyroclastic flow (1991 Unzendake)

Lava flow (1986 Izu-Oshima)

Snowmelt Lahar (1926 Tokachidake)

Debris flow (Sakurajima)

Volcanic gas (2000 Miyakejima)

1986.11.19 東京都提供

1991.6.3 出典：NPO法人砂防広報センター副読本

1984.8.25 国土交通省大隅河川国道事務所提供

上富良野町提供

25

Three phenomena “Large volcanic blocks, Pyroclastic flow and Snowmelt Lahar"

are attached importance in Evacuation plan

Eruption Scenario of Hokkaido-Komagatake

Volcanic Alert Levels General definition of Volcanic Alert Level. (depending on areas and responses)

(Operated from December 1, 2007)

* Designated area is described in literature as regional disaster prevention plan.

*

*

27

Volcanoes where Volcanic Alert Levels are applied

Meakandake

Usuzan

Hokkaido-Komagatake Tarumaesan

Iwatesan

Azumayama

Nasudake

Bandaisan

Kusatsu-Shiranesan

Asamayama Ontakesan

Miyakejima

Adatarayama

Fujisan

Hakoneyama

Tokachidake

Kirishimayama

Sakurajima

Satsuma-Iojima

Unzendake

Kujusan

Suwanosejima

Kuchinoerabujima

Asosan

Akita-Komagatake

（Ohachi, Shinmoedake)

(Oct. 25, 2013)

Izu-Tobu Volcanoes

Izu-Oshima

Niigata-Yakeyama

Yakedake

• Volcanic Alert Levels are applied to 30

volcanoes (as of Oct. 2013).

• Volcanic Alert Levels will be applied to

other volcanoes when coordination with

local municipalities and other related

organizations is completed.

Level.3

Level.2

Level.1

Akita-Yakeyama

28

• Introduction











• Conclusion


Contents

Eruption

SO2 flux

Volcanic quakes

GPS baseline

JMA GSJ

N/day

↑ 3.11 ↑ Replace sensor

1 1 2 2 3 2 3 2 Level

Volcanic Activity Level←｜→Volcanic Alert Level

Volcanic activity at Asamayama

30

Tilt change and seismicity just before an eruption at Asama

Tiltmeters of JMA (red circles)

Level Restricted area 1 < 0.5km 2 < 2km 3 < 4km < 4km + more (in tilt change)

Tilt change before an eruption at Asamayama

31

Level 2

Level 3

Level 3 (during tilt change)

Eruption at Asama volcano, 2004

Prohibition rules corresponding alert levels determined by Volcano Disaster Mitigation Council of Asama.

Prohibition corresponding levels

32

Criteria for evacuations etc.

Role of Volcanic Disaster Management Councils

based on the Basic Plan for Disaster Prevention

33

Cooperative consideration of volcanic disaster management council

2. Figure out the extent of

the hazard

3. Making eruption scenario

4. Cooperative consideration

of disaster prevention

5. Setup of volcanic alert

levels

1. Figure out an inhabitable

area

8. Public relations to residents

7. Reflection to a local plan for

disaster prevention and

operation of volcanic alert

levels

Reexamination and training

are conducted continuously.

Enforcement

6. Fix the contact person,

method of connection and

the procedure of a request

Cooperative consideration of an evacuation plan

34

Subplinian Eruption (Jan. 26, 2011)

Before the eruption Newly appeared Lave in

the crater（Feb. 1, 2011）

Shinmoedake

Tokyo

Moderate-Large Eruption occurred at Shinmoedake

for the first time in 300 years in 2011

35

Volcanic Alert Level

We couldn’t update the level before the subplinian eruption. Very much ash fell but the alert level doesn’t link to ash fall.

Evacuation Plans

Local governments had no specific and practical evacuation plans.

Support for establishment of a disaster management system by the government assistance team

Development of quantitative ash fall forecast (JMA) Advancement of real-time monitoring techniques of eruption (CCPVE)

Ash fall simulation by MRI,JMA

Problems at the Shinmoedake eruption

36

2005-2007 (left)

Small inflation beneath

the summit crater

2008-2010 (right)

Small phreatic

eruptions 気象庁

December 2009 -

Inflation of a deep magma chamber

Volcanic Alert Level

2007/12/1 Level 1 (normal)

2008/8/22 Level 2 (Don’t approach the crater)

Off-limits within1km from the crater





Activity at Shinmoedake before 2011 eruptions

37

Level2(1km)

2013/10

Eruption at Shinmoedake, 2011

38

Ebino

Kirishima Miyakonojo

Kobayashi

Tkaharu

湧水町

Volcanic Warnings

‘Dangerous Zone’

Jan. 26: 2km

Jan 31: 3km

Feb. 1 : 4km

Mar. 22: 3km

花堂

北狭野

南狭野

Evacuation Advisory

‘Refuge Region’

Jan. 30: 1,158 persons

Feb. 5: 73 persons

2/15： canceled

39

Mismatching between the Volcanic Warnings and the Evacuation Advisory

40

Kirishima City

Evacuation Plan

２．For Pyroclastic flow １．For Large Volcanic Blocks

Takaharu Town

Evacuation Plan

JMA

Warnings

JMA

Warnings

Evacuation

Area Evacuation Area

Level 5 Evacuate

避難・避難準備

40

Dangerous Zone of

Large Volcanic Blocks

Dangerous Zone

of a Pyroclastic flow

Kirishima City

Takaharu Town

Level 5 Evacuate

Consistency of Volcanic Warnings and the Evacuation Area in an evacuation plan

Volcanic Disaster Management Council for Shinmoedake

Organization which works on volcano disaster measures such as refuge together.

Police

Fire Department

Self-Defense Forces

Japan Coast Guard

Forestry management

Environmental office

District survey part

Road department office

Other public offices

Red Cross Society

Regional development bureau

and so on

Core Group


Meteorological Observatory Municipality


Bureau (Sabo) The member who participates in decision of refuge time and the refuge region deeply

Advice

Volcanologist (CCPVE Members)

Advice

Advice Advice

41

Volcanic Disaster Management Council and Core Group based on a Basic Plan for Disaster Prevention

Government Assistance Team

Advice

2. Volcanic Alert Levels

3. Specific and practical Evacuation Plan

1. Volcanic Disaster Management Council

Establish a face-to-face relationship

Image sharing about disaster and countermeasures

Basic Plan for Disaster Prevention

Between the persons concerned engaged in volcano disaster prevention

may be more important

42

Face-to-Face Relationship and Image sharing

• Introduction





– Guidelines for evacuation in case of volcanic eruption • Volcanic Disaster Management Council



• Asamayama eruption in 2009 and Shinmoedake Eruption in 2011 as case studies

• Conclusion


Contents

1952 Kamchatka (M9.0)

1957 Andreanof Islands, Alaska (M9.1)

1964 Prince William

Sound, Alaska (M9.2)

1960 Chile (M9.5)

2004 Off the West Coast of

Northern Sumatra (M9.2)

2010 Chile (M8.8)

Hypocentral distribution in the world

Largest Earthquakes in the World Since 1900

Magnitudes are based on the Science Chronology (Maruzen publication)

2011 Near the East Coast

of Honshu, Japan (M9.0)

44

• 1952 Kamchatka (M9.0)

– Karpinsky Group (the next day), other 2 volcanoes (within 3

months)

– Bezymianny (3 years after, for the first time in 1000 years)

• 1957 Andreanof Islands, Alaska (M9.1)

– Vsevidof (4 days after)

• 1960 Chile (M9.5)

– Puyehue-Cordón Caulle(2 days after), other 3 volcanoes (within

1 year)

• 1964 Prince William Sound, Alaska (M9.2)

– Trident (2 months after), Redoubt (2 years after)

• 2004 Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra (M9.2)

– Talang (4 months after), Merapi (1 year and 3 months after),

Kelut (3 years after)

• 2010 Chile (M8.8)

– Puyehue-Cordón Caulle (1 year and 3 months after)

M9 earthquakes induced volcanic eruptions

45

Quantity of an ejecta

more than 1 km3 0.3-1 km3 0.1-0.3 km3

17th C.

Hokkaido-Komagatake (1640) Usuzan(1663) Tarumaesan(1667)

Hokkaido-Komagatake(1694)

18th C. Tarumaesan（1739) Sakurajima(1779-82)

Fujisan(1707) Izu-Oshima(1777-79) Asamayama(1783) Unzendake（1782)

Usuzan(1769)

19th C. Bandaisan (1888)

Usuzan(1822) Usuzan(1853) Hokkaido-Komagatake(1856)

Suwanosejima(1813)

20th C. Sakurajima(1914) Hokkaido-Komagatake(1929)

Satsuma-Iojima (1934-35) Usuzan（1943-45) Sakurajima(1946) Usuzan(1977-78) Unzendake(1990-95)

21st C. ? ? ?

Large Eruptions after 17th Century in Japan

46

Proposals for mitigation of large-scale volcanic disasters

Compared with local countermeasures for volcanic disasters, Japan has

not yet well prepared for large-scale volcanic disasters (LSVD) that may

affect wide area of the country.

The government held ‘Study meetings for volcanic disaster mitigation for

wide area’ (Co-secretariat : the Cabinet Office, the Fire and Disaster

Management Agency, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and

Tourism and the Japan Meteorological Agency) and publicized ‘Proposals

for mitigation of large-scale volcanic disasters’ (16 May, 2013).

Main topics of the proposals 1. Need for countermeasures against large-scale lava flows, pyroclastic

flows and mudflows

2. Need for countermeasures against large-scale tephra fall

3. Role of the nation and municipalities when LSVD

4. Need for experts advice and enhancement of monitoring when LSVD

5. Enhancement of observation, research and human resources for LSVD

47

Thank you for your attention !

Japan Meteorological Agency

‘Ukiyoe’ picture by KATSUSHIKA Hokusai

Documents

Volcanic Disaster Mitigation Framework of Japanvuelco.net/documents/1_3_Kanno.pdf · •Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System in Japan –Promotion of Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System