书书书
!
34"!
3#
! " # $ $ %
Vol.34No.32011
$
6%
TransactionsofAtmosphericSciences Jun.2011
&'()
:20101016;*+()
:20110119
,-./
:NOAAHurricaneForecastImprovementProgram(HFIP)
0123
:&'(
(1983—),)
,*+,-./0
,123
,456789:;<
,Juhui.Ma@noaa.gov.
&'(
,=>?
,@AB
,C
.2011.NCEP、ECMWFD
CMCEF9:;<GHIJKLMN
[J].OPQRR<
,34(3): .
MaJuhui,ZhuYuejian,WangPanxing,etal.2011.AReviewonthedevelopmentsofNCEP,ECMWFandCMCglobalensembleforecastsystem
[J].TransAtmosSci,34(3):.
NCEP、ECMWF4
CMC56789%:;<=>?@A
!"#
1,2,3,$%&
2,'()
1,*+,
1
(1.STUVWXOR PYZ[\]^?_`]abcde
,,f ST
210044;
2.EnvironmentalModelingCenter/NCEP/NOAA,CampSprings,MD20746USA;3.UCAR,Boulder,CO80307USA)
BC
:!"#$%&'()*+
3,-./01234
(globalensembleforecastsystem,GEFS)———56678912:;
(NationalCentersforEnvironmentalPrediction,NCEP)、<=:>?@12:
;
(EuropeanCentreforMediumRangeWeatherForecasts,ECMWF)ABCD@E:;
(CanadianMeteorologicalCentre,CMC)
FGHI+JKLM
。NOPQRS+TUVK
,W:;/01234+
XYZ[\
、/0G]^_`abB
。cdW:;efTUghiOJKAjklmAXYnop
q
,rstguPvlwAXYxy+Tz{*
,|}12~�+��
。�:lmnopq�&l+
����q
(ECMWF)、b���q
(NCEP)A��noq
(CMC)s���f+/0R�c�
—�
���q
(ECMWF)、�����/0��q
(NCEP)A/0�����
(CMC)。fuPXYTz
{*p�
,ECMWFA
CMCe��#W�+`��^�p A¡�^�p
,NCEP&¢_fXY
:B£#`�-¤�no
。���-.�¥¦?@12+§z\
,TIGGEP¨
(theTHORPEXinteractivegrandglobalensemble)
+�©b}#6ª«¬¡XY
、¡:;/012+0®¯
,°5/0
1234
(NorthAmericanensembleforecastsystem,NAEFS)�F±-.¡XY/01234�²#
³´µ¶
,·e¸x¹Oºr-.»¼Y³´1234+½F
。
DEF
:-./01234
;lwTz{*
;XYTz{*
;¡XYA¡:;/012
GHIJK
:P4567 LMNOP
:A LQRK
:16747097(2011)03000011
AReviewonthedevelopmentsofNCEP,ECMWFandCMCglobalensembleforecastsystem
MAJuhui1,2,3,ZHUYuejian2,WANGPanxing1,DUANMingkeng1
(1.KeyLaboratoryofMeteorologicalDisasterofMinistryofEducation,NUIST,Nanjing210044,China;2.EnvironmentalModelingCenter/NCEP/NOAA,CampSprings,MD20746,USA;3.UCAR,Boulder,CO80307,USA)
Abstract:ThepapersummarizesthedevelopmentsoftheNationalCentersforEnvironmentalPrediction(NCEP),theEuropeanCentreforMediumRangeWeatherForecasts(ECMWF),andtheCanadianMeteorologicalCentre(CMC),whicharethemostrepresentativeofglobalensembleforecastsystem(GEFS).Duetotheenlargingofcomputationalresources,themodelresolutionandensemblesizeoftheirGEFSsubsequentlyincrease.Atthesametime,forpromotingtheimprovementoftheforecastskill,theyalldevotetodeveloptheinitialandmodelperturbationmethodsusedtosimulatetheeffectofinitialandmodeluncertainties.Theinitialperturbationmethodsareupdatedfromthesingularvector(SV)method(ECMWF),thebreedingmethod(NCEP)andtheperturbedobservation(PO)method(CMC)totheensembleofdataassimilationandsingularvector(EDASV)method(ECMWF),the
ghij
\\Dz02\D\kl
\OPQR
\2011$ORQR
\2011$!
3#
.PS 2mn
oj
:kl
pq
2011$
4%
25
ensembletransformwithrescaling(ETR)method(NCEP)andtheensembleKalmanfilter(EnKF)method(CMC).Severalattemptsarealsomadetoaccountformodelrelateduncertainty.ECMWFandCMChaverevisedtheirstochasticphysicsparameterizationtendencies(ECMWF)andmultiparameterization(CMC)schemes,andNCEPalsodevelopsstochastictotaltendencyperturbationtoestimatethemodelrelateduncertainty.Toaccelerateimprovementsintheaccuracyofglobalhighimpactweatherforecasts,TIGGE(theTHORPEXinteractivegrandglobalensemble)wasinitiatedtoenhanceinternationalcollaborationonmulticenterandmultimodelensembleforecast,andNAEFS(NorthAmericanensembleforecastsystem)canprovideanoperationalframeworkforglobalmultimodelensembleforecastsystem.Theyareallhelpfulfordevelopingtheglobalinteractiveforecastsystem(GIFS).Keywords:globalensembleforecastsystem;initialuncertainty;modeluncertainty;multimodelandmulticenterensembleforecast
0 ST
OPrstuvw
,xyz{|}~����
���
,���������
,���;<w
(Lorenz,1963)。z{|������y��
(�
��pq��q�}���
,� w����¡�
�C
)D��¢£¤X
(¥¦§¨|©6�pª«
¬7¢wD®§¨|��}UVC
),̄¥ª«
°±�²
,�n}z³´�¥;<µ¶�·¸¹º
8»
(TothandKalnay,1993)。¼½¾³;<°±
¿À�²
,Á£}OP°±ÃÄÅcOP�¾R
�ÆÇ�}ÈÉ
。sÊ}°±ËÌÍ
、��²}Æ
Çξ£6ÏDÐÑÒÓ
(ÈÉÔÕÖ×���
、
ØÙÚ�
、ÛÜ
、ÝÞ�ß à�
)á�â�°±�
�
,ãäz{��ån
,���;<µ¶
。
9:;<ÄÔÕ¾³;<æ�çèw}å�6
é
,ãêëåçèw;<ìí8îÍ;<
。z{|
}�çèw�¦îÍï�ð¾
(PDF)� ñ
。9:
;<}z{òó6éôÄõ¤�¢6±ön
PDF,÷øùú}ûvüýé
(Leith,1974)、þ¹ÿ!é
(HoffmanandKalnay,1983)、�"7¡é
(TothandKalnay,1993,1997)、
#¡°$%7¡é
(BuizzaandPalmer,1995;Moltenietal.,1996)、
��òóé
(Houtekameretal.,1996)、9:ì&ü.'()
(Bishopetal.,2001;WangandBishop,2003)�9
:ì&é
(Weietal.,2008)C
。9:;<�*�+
ÔÕz{�çèw
,́�+õ¤,¦-°±6é
(Houtekameretal.,1996)、ÆǤX}./°06
é
(Buizzaetal.,1999)D./E17òóé
(Houetal.,2006,2008,2010)
C�234°±56}�
çèw
,789:ëåçèw;<}�;
。
9:;<�+õ¤<=z{�çèw}p�>
í
,?@ABC
(flowdependent)}îÍËD
,�?
��;<w
(Tothetal.,2007)。�¢¦E�FG
9:;<HIJKLMp�N¥¦ëå;<OPQ
-}ùRST
,U89:;<�+VxWX¬Y}
Z[
/\]N?@�¢}LM^_
(Zhuetal.,2002),
8ëåçèw;<`éabcåd¦EF
GYe}f¼ghij}LM
,¦Ek#lëgA
mPn|UVJKop
。Joslynetal.(2007)�
NadavGreenbergandJoslyn(2009)
}45 q
,;<
æ÷r�çèwÔÕ
,�+ab;<s�tugh
Qv}LM
。
wxxyz{;<æ|
(NationalCentersforEnvironmentalPrediction,NCEP)
�}~æ#�P;
<æ|
(EuropeanCentreforMediumRangeWeatherForecasts,ECMWF)
y
1992$
12%Ë�?��¬
Y}EF9:;<IJ
(globalensembleforecastsystem,GEFS),
��OPYæ|
(CanadianMeteorologicalCentre,CMC)
}9:;<GH´y
1998$
2%?Z
,ãXÄ��ir� w}
GEFS。È�å
�45´x�
3dæ|}z{òó6éD9:;<
��JK�N�
。Bowler(2006)¥¦��}
Lorenz96°±N�Oh9:ü.'()
(ensembleKalmanfilter,EnKF)
6é�jy�"7¡
(breedvector,BV)
é�$%7¡
(singularvector,SV)é}
H�
,DescampsandTalagrand(2007)́¥¦
Lorenz96
°±���_gì°±OP�å�}H�
。�
��N�d�N�æ�y5¢}°±
,���°±
�%xN�HI}��
,*°±¤ylë
,��#�
��}OPIJ
。Magnussonetal.(2008)¥¦
TL255L40}ECMWF9:;<°±N��
SVé
�
BVé
,K���â�g�
SV6é} ��v
,
��âg�� ¡
。Buizzaetal.(2005)N��
3dæ|
2002$
5—7%
20~80°N500hPa¢£��
|9:;<��
,¤¥8¦
,ECMWF �iv
,
2D@¾¿¿2 À
34Á
ghij
\\Dz02\D\kl
\OPQR
\2011$ORQR
\2011$!
3#
.PS 2mn
oj
:kl
pq
2011$
4%
25
NCEP�§;<p¨¨Iv
,CMCx�;<p¨¨
Iv
。WMO(WorldMeteorologicalOrganization)}
THORPEX(Theobservingsystemresearchandpredictabilityexperiment)
QRÕ©æ}
TIGGEÕ©
(theTHORPEXinteractivegrandglobalensemble)?
h�?�EFª«±O9:;<}¬
,TIGGE�
�}ª&8¬æ|;<��}N�
、Yeµ®}¯
J?@�s°³}UV
。
10±$�
,3dæ|}
GEFSás�q²}¯
J
,[³!
1́굶s6
3dæ|
GEFS}KL
î¼
,!
2、3́Ë�µ¶
3dæ|·¸ÔÕz³�
°±�çèw
,!
4́Ä6y?�-°±
、-æ|9
:;<IJ}JLf¼
,!
5́Äx[³}¤H
。
1 >?UV
1、2、3¹h�
3dæ|}º»KLî¼
。Y
GEFS¼{GH£+�
,3dæ|ô��pg�½y
KL��¾z{�°±òó6é
,¢p°±ËÌÍ
、
9:Zs¾D;<p¨´ás¿ÀÁ
。
ECMWFizc¸ÃJK
3ÂGH;<
(̧Ã
、
Ä
、Å
,12p
(ÆÑp
,Ç¢
)È{;<
),¥¦
T63L19(ÉÿËÌÍÊ
219km)x
32d9:Zs
ËË
10d。P��ÌùÀÁ8÷ø
50d9:Zs
,
c�ÍÂ
(00p
、12p
),¥¦�íËÌÍ
GEFS°
±JK
15d;<
,̄ 0~10d;<ÎK�ËÌÍ°
±
TL639L62(Ê 30km),10~15d;<¯¦
TL319L62(Ê65km)。NCEP
}
GEFS?Z¡z
,�c�
00pÃÏ
1ÐÑÒòóx�3
2d9:Zs
。��9:Zs¾
�P
20d
,c�
00、06、12�
18pÈ<
,;<p
¨Ó
16d,ÉÿËÌÍy
2010$
2%ÀÁ8
T190(Ê
70km)。CMC
}!
1�
GEFSÃ¥¦
TL95SFE°±
(spectralfiniteelementmodel)x
8d9:ZsËË
10d。1999$
8%Ô¼K�
GEM(globalenvironmentalmultiscalemodel),
Ï°±æ�¢}ÆÇξ
£6Ï�3�Õ�
8dZs
,°±}ËÌÍÄ
1875°。2007$
7%
CMCx
GEFSJK�åÂa
�}ÀÁ
,�Ö¥¦
SFE°±
,¿ê
GEM}ÉÿË
ÌÍ?�P
09°,x
20d9:ZsJK
16d;<
。
×
1aN��
3dæ|9:;<}Øÿ56I
¾
,cdæ|ákö
10d9:ZsJK9:ÿ!
,
Ùæ
ECMWF};<¨Iiv
,NCEP¡
。*
ECMWF}��j£�åèX��öLy��}°
W
1 ECMWFGEFS>?UV
Table1 ThedevelopmentoftheECMWFGEFS
z{�çèw °±�çèw ËÌÍ ;<p¨
/d9:Zs¾ È<pÂ
199212
199612
199803
199810
199910
200011
200303
200602
200609
200909
201001
201006
201011
$%7¡é
(SVINI)
>£
$%7¡é
(EVOSVINI)
9:��¢£
—$%7¡é
(EDASVINI)
./ξ£
òó6Ï
(SPPT)
ÚÛ}./
ξ£òó6Ï
(revisedSPPT)
ÚÛ}./
ξ£òó6Ï
�./:Ü6Ï
(revisedSPPTSPBS)
T63L19
TL159L31
TL159L40
TL255L40
TL399L62
TL399L62(0~10)
TL255L62(10~15)
TL639L62(0~10)
TL319L62(10~15)
10
15
32
50
12UTC
00UTC;
12UTC
3À
3> ÂÃÄ
,Å
:NCEP、ECMWFÆ
CMC-./012³´34JKÇÈ
ghij
\\Dz02\D\kl
\OPQR
\2011$ORQR
\2011$!
3#
.PS 2mn
oj
:kl
pq
2011$
4%
25
W
2 NCEPGEFS>?UV
Table2 ThedevelopmentoftheNCEPGEFS
z{�çèw °±�çèw ËÌÍ ;<p¨
/d9:Zs¾ È<pÂ
199212
199403
200006
200101
200403
200508
200605
200703
201002
�"7¡é
(BV)
aÔÝ�£
9:ì&é
(ETR) ./E17
òó
(STTP)
T62L18
T62L28
T126L28(0~25)
T62L28(25~16)
T126L28(0~35)
T62L28(35~16)
T126L28(0~75)
T62L28(75~16)
T126L28
T190L28
12
16
2
10(00UTC)
4(12UTC)
10
14
20
00UTC
00UTC;
12UTC
00UTC;
06UTC;
12UTC;
18UTC
W
3 CMCGEFSX>?UV
Table3 ThedevelopmentoftheCMCGEFS
z{�çèw °±�çèw ËÌÍ ;<p¨
/d9:Zs¾ È<pÂ
199802
199908
200106
200501
200707
��òóé
(PO)
9:ü.'
()
(EnKF)
-°±-ξ£6Ï
-ξ£6Ï�
./X
TL95(SEF)
TL95(SEF);
1.875°(GEM)
TL149(SEF);
1.2°(GEM)
0.9°(GEM)
10
16
8
16
20
00UTC
00UTC;
12UTC
±ËÌÍ
。·�N�ÃÏz{�°±òó6é?�
};<µ¶
,�Ï×
1bæ9:ÿ!4Þi;<}�
� ß
,�;<p¨�y
3dp
,3dæ|};<¨
I�[5à
,¡¹
CMC¼{²�j£
,CMC}-
ξ£6ÏQvg� �°±�çèw
,¥��Ù
jáw
。
2 YZ[\]^
1)ECMWFFGÀâwó½R}sÊpq�ãèÇ�
,ò
ó�5�q}�¢67rs�¢}��Í
。�y�
åäÇ
,ECMWF¥¦$%7¡
(SV)é�23òó
��iå}67
(BuizzaandPalmer,1995;Molteni
etal.,1996)(Ïy��
SVÄ3Z�;<}z{p
æ
,8��yÙW
SV,+
SVINI(initialtimeSV)�
ç
)。SVINIÄ5xyz{°èè}
,ãÄõ¤�
ijpqé7�ËËêâw°±
,Ö7¹ËËë.
°±
,OP�ijqìé#íÓPîO#¡��}
òó
,Uïz{°}ðö�ijqì}��ñ6ò
,
ECMWFGH�¥¦¤#¡°ó8z{°
,ijq
ìizÄ
36h,1994$¹QÔ8
48h。OP}
SVINI
�5�qæÖJKѪôìDaÔÝ�£õö
9:òóZs
。Ïy¥¦êâw°±�Ùë.°±
}¾Ŀ÷$%7¡¾}
3ø
,Uï÷�ùúO
¡}Õû��
,¿+ÃÎK
T42}�ËÌÍ°±
。
xy�â�g�
,ÍdüFÄË�Õû$%7¡}
,
4D@¾¿¿2 À
34Á
ghij
\\Dz02\D\kl
\OPQR
\2011$ORQR
\2011$!
3#
.PS 2mn
oj
:kl
pq
2011$
4%
25
×
1 2008$
12%
1Å
00p
—2009$
2%
28Å
00p
(ÆÑp
)ýüF
500hPa¢£��|}Øÿ56I¾
(a;câ89:ÿ!;<
,þâ8Þi;<
)
+D9:ÿ!;<4Þi;<Øÿ56I¾¡�
(b)Fig.1 500hPageopotentialheightovertheNorthernHemisphereextratropicsfor
thewinterof2008—2009 a.anomalycorrelationscores(solidlinesareensemblemean;dashlinesarecontrolforecast);b.differencesofanomalycorrelationscoresbetweentheensemblemeanandthecontrolforecast
ÿ��¥!üF}$%7¡¤"
。��âg�
,$
%7¡xêâw°±æÀ#�ÆǤXñ��
,·
IÕû�d�âg�}$%7¡
,sp�3Z�âw;<°±æ���}þªHõ
,¿+ÃÕû�
âPô$È�%}$%7¡
(Barkmeijeretal.,2001)。
8�?�§#9:;<}µ¶
,1998$
3%
ECMWF?h�>£$%7¡é
(evolvedSVinitialtimeSV,EVOSVINI),
ê
SVINI4>£�
48h}
SV&åè}'a:¿
,�nåèX��� �
��¢£(z)È}z{�çèw��
,OP�ñ
v}¨I
(Barkmeijeretal.,1998)。2010
$
6%
ECMWF¼{,¦9:��¢
£
—$%7¡é
(ensembleofdataassimilationinitialtimeSV,EDASVINI)(Buizzaetal.,2008,2010)。EDA
òóÏòó��|
、ß à�|+DÆǤX
æ}ξ£17OP
。U8>£}
SV4
EDAò
óáĦ�ÔÕ��¢£¤Xæâ�}z{�çè
w��
,*
EDA��*¨IQv
,¿+¦Ùö�>
£}
SV。EDAòó4+,òó}Ë-|5�
,�
3Z
10dòóË-|
,.¹Ë�4
5d
SVINI:
¿
,�OP
50d9:Zs
,ÙæÏy
EDAòó}/
0Nä�}>£
SVO
,¿+:¿p
SVINI}/0
º�
10%。Palmaretal.(2007)�
Buizzaetal.(2008,2010)
45 q
,k¥¦
EDAòó� z{
�çèw
,����ñ1
,9:ÁÂ�2�
,3ÙÄ
��â�g�
,���;<¨I
。*4
SVINI:¿
¹
,4
EVOSVINI5N
,��âg�;<p¨}�
2d��âg�}�
10d,EDASVINIársQO
}ÁÂ�
,¡¹4*�[5à
。
2)NCEPTothandKalnay(1993,1997)
«Õ��"7¡
(BV)é
,¿y
1992$�
NCEP56GH¥¦
。7
6é)6z{./òó¹
,ù¤
3~4d}�"(z
�3rsîO��Í}òó
,.¹õ¤aÔÝ�£
¥1���C��Na8�
,OPi9}z{òó
|
。BVé}:Êw�y
,z{òó6�ÄÏ�.
pqí£}Pn|Ë-��Êè}
,Õ�òó¡q
¿+;ÈѪ
。
9:ì&
(ensembletransform,ET)�aÔÝ�
£9:ì&
(ensembletransform withrescaling,
5À
3> ÂÃÄ
,Å
:NCEP、ECMWFÆ
CMC-./012³´34JKÇÈ
ghij
\\Dz02\D\kl
\OPQR
\2011$ORQR
\2011$!
3#
.PS 2mn
oj
:kl
pq
2011$
4%
25
ETR)µ®Äx
BVé}¯J
,i<Ä
BishopandToth(1999)
��^��45æ?h}
。2004$¡
�
NCEPô¼{�
ET�
ETR3Z9:;<z{ò
ó}�d
,2006$
5%
ETRѱ�
NCEP56GH
¥¦
。76é�3}z{òó,GH��¢£
(dataassimilation,DA)
IJ?@}Ë-|��6�Ê
è
,¿+
DA?@}Ë-|8æ|
,¢p
GEFŚ8
DA?@;<|��©6�
,Uï�
ET�
ETR6
éæ
GEFS�
DArså�w
,�Ää{}
BV6
é�r²}
。Õ�¬òó¡q;ÈѪ
,̄56w
ñ�
。¿+
ET�
ETR6é9:�
BVÑÒòóx
6éæ}å��;
(Weietal.,2006),*=>?�
BVéABCí£
、� ��iå��}Àâwò
óDù¦Õû��"}jb
。
ETR6é
(Weietal.,2008)��Äõ¤9:ì
&@A
Tê;<|òó
Zfì&8Ë-|òó
Za:Za =ZfT。 (1)
ÇB}z{òóC7Äæ|£}
,�nD#+i�
#}Ë-|8æ|
,78OPij}9:ÿ!
;Õ�
ECrsiO}Y�
,�9:F�qæËDP�
¡-}67�
。õ¤6X
(1)}ì&¬òóq5«
Ѫ
,*¿+æ|£
。UïE�JKæ|£GÇ
,*
�H¥¬òóq�ÖIJ}Ѫ
,�¤�Kq9:
Zsá-òóqá;ÈѪ
。Õ�
,8�¥z{Á
Â�ËD#4Ë-��6�5É
,E÷�gaÔÝ
�£
。
M�¿N
,ù¤
ETRì&¡¹}Ë-òórs
·Çwh
:1)¬òó¡q+Ë-|8æ|
;2)Zs
á-
,¬òóqá;ÈѪ
;3)rsiO}Y�
;
4)rsABCí£}�qHõ
;5)·I9:Zs¾
á-
,z{òó}©6�4
DA?@}Ë-|��
©6�áå�
。Weietal.(2008)N��Ë�Ï
BV、ET、ETR�
ETKF(ensembletransformkalmanFilter)
�3z{òó}9:;<
,�O-¾LËæ
ETR} �iv
。Magnussonetal.(2009)¥¦�
5¢}°±�
4DVarDAIJ
,N�
ETR�
SV}
;<µ¶
,ùJÕ
,³æ
19MN�
,ETRjy
SV}
N
13M
。
3)CMC� � ò ó é
(perturbedobservation,PO)(Houtekameretal.,1996),
+./òóé
(MonteCarlo)
8�O
。r¥géÄ
:PQx��|�./
òó
,êòó}��|4�å(z?@};<|å
ÈJK��¢£
,OPòó}Ë-|
。.¹¦òó
};<°±x�dË-|ËË
6h,OPÇ墣(
z};<|
。(z
4d¡¹
,9:JÕ¡ÓPãè
,
i9OP�¦yæ#;<}òóË-|
。��z{
òó6éÕû¡�
,½ÔÕ�Ë-��
,*�./ö
np�)6������
,��;<�§#}¨I
。
2005$
1%
,CMC¼{¥¦9:ü.'()
(EnKF)(HoutekamerandMitchell,2005;Houtekameretal.,2007)
89:;<?@z³
。��6éê
��¢£49:;<5H:
,�Õûp�Ã��R
¥¦��}êâw�ë.°±
,8½�+OP9:
;<?@}.�PS£>í}§¨|��©6�
。
*ÄGHÎKHI qOP}Ë-|ÁÂ�2�
,
�ÄU8
EnKF6éÕû¤Xæ
,�TûF�Ë-
��á�Yyrsëå9:TU}sÊ}9:Z
s
,Uï�Ô�Ë-�çèw
,¥.¹}9:;<Á
�V�
。2007$
7%
CMCô�åWXx
EnKF6éJK�¯J
,ê
96d9:ZsËZ�
4dF9
:
(cÐ
24dZs
),�¢£YåÐ��|p
,¥¦
ÏÕ
3Ð
72dZsÕûOP}�TûF
。Ïyc
dF9:æ¬ZsqJÕ¡�%¿�O
,k7cÐ
æ¬ðh
5d
,̂SZ
20dZs¦yæ#;<}z
{|
。�z{pæE÷�6./òó
,òó}ÿ!
/0�;Èä{
EnKFË-|Zs}ÁÂ�
,�n
�+9:�z{�Z9:ÁÂ����í}WX
。
��9:;<4��¢£5H:}z{òó6é
,
�*�+89:;<?@#í� Ë-�çèw}
ijz³
,¢p9:;<H�+8¢£?@��#
_ç}§¨|��©6�ÔÕ
。
3 _`X[\]^
1)ECMWF1998
$
10%
ECMWF¼{�GH9:;<æ
[\°±�çèw
,¥¦./ξ£òó6Ï
(stochasticperturbedparameterizationtendencies,SPPT)(Buizzaetal.,1999,Palmeretal.,2009),
xÆÇÎ
¾£¤Xæ}��UFJKòó
,̄�Â]JÝ�
ÆÇξ£3Z}¤17�^+åd�
[-05,05]
_`é!aËD}./¾
,� ç8
Xp =(1+rX)Xc。 (2)±æ
:Xc8+ùòó}17
;Xp8òó¹}17
;rX8./¾
。�¢}í¡
rXö³�¢
,*xycåd
òóí¡
,8�>b�q�pq�}cdw
,./¾
rX�cd
10°×10°}��OP�%é
,c
6dpq
ËËe�
(xC
TL399}3h,TL215}45h)f,ö
6D@¾¿¿2 À
34Á
ghij
\\Dz02\D\kl
\OPQR
\2011$ORQR
\2011$!
3#
.PS 2mn
oj
:kl
pq
2011$
4%
25
³�í
。��6Ï�+��9:ÁÂ�
,?�îÍ
;<}µ¶
,*9:}K�gV�
。
2009$
9%
ECMWFx
SPPT6éJK�ÚÛ
(Palmeretal.,2009),ê6X
(2)̄h8
Xp =(1+rμ)Xc。 (3)Ùæμ∈[0,1]¦�8�Ègi�ÿB�òó/0
。
U8xj�OPJKòó�)È°±�ãè
,8ÿ
B�}17+klmn8�
,ã�ÿB�5x_ç
,
����ÄOÝ�}
,¿+ÚÛ¹}
SPPT6éæ
�y
300m��y
50hPap��òó
。ï�
,�f
}./¾
ro7�pËD
,¿sí¡}
ráö5¢
³
,�n¥°±}ÆǤXQ�rså�w
。4ä
{}
SPPT6é5N
,ÚÛ¹ºÉ;<��âg�
};<¨Is¿¯¾
。
Çiµ¶./:Ü6Ï
(spectralstochasticbackscatterscheme,SPBS)(Shutts,2004,2005;Berneretal.,2009)。
4ÅcOP5N
,EF�P;<
°±æ}°±OP�qpÝ�$È�h�#¡}¤
�ùÂ
,��¾³¤X}ùÂ�ri#¡7Â]J
Ý�7�ËÌÝ�}ì&
。¢n
,ξ£}Â]J
a½)17�sxB´����#¡ì&
。SPBS6Ï�õ¤Bð¾mnM
Fψ �:Ü��ùÂ
。
ECMWFõ¤�ï6Ï}��
,y
2010$
11%ê
Ù4ÚÛ}
SPPTûé墦y� GH9:;<
IJæ°±}�çèw
。
2)NCEPNCEP
7
2010$
2%È¥¦./E17òó
é
(stochastictotaltendencyperturbation,STTP)(Houetal.,2006,2008,2010),
�°±6X}17
Tæ�6�./mnM
S,�� 4°±56}�
çèw
。¯¦
Xit=T(Xi,t)+Si(t),(i=1,2,…,N), (4)
�tuJ}°±6X
Xit=T(Xi,t),(i=1,2,…,N)。 (5)
ª«Yå9:Zs}17�+� +v}Åc}1
7
,�Åc}17³4uJ}°±6X}��
,̄c
dZs4Þi;<17}�
,8
Ndòó
:
Pi(t)=Ti(t)-T0(t),(i=1,2,…,N)。 (6)w../ðö}cd
Piá�+¦�� 17æ}
�çèw
,*·Iê
Nd17òó./:¿È�
,
��+� ¢5�qæQ-}67
,�sQv}¨
I
。Uï./mnM�+ ç8
Si(t)∝∑N
j=1wi,j(t)Pj(t),(i=1,2,…,N)。 (7)
Ùæ
wi,j8cd9:Zs
ixC}�¢}åÐ./
'a
。xyYåZs
i}'a
wi,j(j=1,2,…,N)ÄÏz{
t=0p./�3}Ѫ@A
,¡¹.pqí
£�p}ôìåd~�}x�
,SZÔ}Ѫ@A
。
¢p
P´ÄѪ}
,UïOP}
S¢nÄѪ@
A
。ÏyÕû��}Êi
,��#cåËËex1
7�åÂ./òó
,k#xådyè}pqqì Δt
JK
,Uï°±æËË}z{í¡¯h8
(Xi′)t=(Xi)t+γ(t)∑N
j=1wi,j(t{) [(Xj)t-
(Xj)t-Δt]-[(X0)t-(X0)t-Δt }] ,(i=1,2,…,N;t=Δt,2Δt,…)。 (8)
Ùæγ(t)8EFaÔÝ�£UF
,¦�º�./m
nM}/0
。cdZs}./mn8
SPi=∑N
j=1wi,j(t{) [(Xj)t-(Xj)t-Δt]-
[(X0)t-(X0)t-Δt }] ,(i=1,2,…,N;t=Δt,2Δt,…)。 (9)
�d q
,STTP�+��9:ÁÂ�
,8"9:ÿ
!;<æ}IJ��
。
3)CMCCMC
¥¦-°±-ξ£6Ï� °±�çè
w
(multimodelandmultiparameterization)(Houtekameretal.,1996)。
�
2007$
7%¡�¥¦
GEM(Coteetal.,1998)
�
SFE(RitchieandBeaudoin,1994)
Í�°±Ë�3Z
8d9:Zs
,¬9:Zs
rs�¢}Éÿ|Â
、xB
、kl
、}i¤X�a½~
�CÆÇξ£6Ï
。.8¾³;<°±}j[�
ξ£6Ï}¾¡��sÊ
,Uï��� °±�ç
èw}6érsåè}:Êw
。8½È�$
SFE°
±}KLÉÿÌù��D
GEM°±
,ã¿3Z}
8d9:Zs};<µ¶q²�y
GEM°±3Z}
8dZs
。Uï7
2007$
7%¼{
CMCGEFSÃ
¥¦
GEMåd°±
,-ξ£6ÏA.,¦
,*Q
Ô8
20Ð�¢}ξ£6Ï
,¢pH¥¦�./Î
¾£òó6Ï
(SPPT)�./ó#:Ü6Ï
(stochastickineticenergybackscatter,SKEB)
Íd./Î
¾£¤X
,̂¢�� °±56}�çèw
(Charronetal.,2010)。
4 aGba_`789%<=
ÆѬx¬g�}z{;<æ|á��½y?
7À
3> ÂÃÄ
,Å
:NCEP、ECMWFÆ
CMC-./012³´34JKÇÈ
ghij
\\Dz02\D\kl
\OPQR
\2011$ORQR
\2011$!
3#
.PS 2mn
oj
:kl
pq
2011$
4%
25
@��
、Dp
、_ç};<D;�
,+�;0XÅT
��}xz{UV}÷R
(=>?
,2010)。�¤�
}�·$q
,9:;<µ®OP�KL
(Zq��
@AB
,2004;6�ÿC
,2006),�J��P�
����P;�#½}?�
。���å?�
1~14d����P;<_çÍ}
THORPEXx�45Õ
©ê
TIGGEÕ©¹8Ù��]Ë
(Richardsonetal.,2005;Bougeaultetal.,2010)。2005
$�ó}
TIGGEÕ©���}Ä�mx�qx-°±
/-Ë
-9:;<}:ó45
,¿H:¦Ex;<UV}
÷R
,êÙC¦P����P;<æ
。��Ï�O
S�
、��
、éx
、�x
、��O
、wx
、}~æ#�P
;<æ|
、Å[
、�x�æx}
10dGH�_GH
GEFS7
TIGGE���?@;<��
,845N�
¬IJ};<µ¶Dõ?ij}-°±9:?@�
�SÒÓ
(�©����
,2010)。Parketal.(2008)
C¦
TIGGE��N��ëd�-°±
GEFS,HI²çxyýüF
500hPa¢£��|-
°±;<�ëd
GEFS�s?�
,x�â
850hPaà�|?�ñq²
。JohnsonandSwinbank(2009)45�
ECMWF、NCEP�
UKMO(UnitedKingdomMetOffice)
ÐZ}�°±9:;<};<¨I
,K
�ãNëd9:;<s²�}?�
,3ÙÄ
2mà
�|
。Titleyetal.(2008)ê-°±9:C¦På
Â��}d�æ
,OP�4
JohnsonandSwinbank(2009)
�É}H�
。��ZI q��y
TIGGE��}45#íab¡XQvgÇ¢��¬æ|¥
¦}òó6é�9:;<æ} �
,¿?�-°±
9:;<}¨I
。
æxPY:
(ChinaMeteorologicalAdministration,CMA)
ó8
TIGGE��EF
3dª&æ|¡
å
,£ËS¦¤ö}O¡
TIGGE��JKQR45
(Jiao,2010),��÷øJK9:ì&
(ET)z³ò
óµ®�¾³°±�çèw}45
、KL-æ|-
°±lÁ9:;<��}9Z�C¦µ®+D?�
+9:;<µ®8�O}PYɳ¥¦;<°C
。
ÌOP�å�ze}45ZI
,·�©�C
(2009)�y
TIGGE��æ}
ECMWF、JMA(JapanMeteorologicalAgency)、NCEP
�
UKMO§dæ|ýüF
æ¨�g�giPà9:;<��JK�lÁ9:
�d
。©ª«C
(2010)�y
TIGGE��
,Ë-�
9:í&ü.'()¬Cw������6é�
c�C¦æ}r¥z´
。
��O
、®�¯�wxy
2004$?��ýw9
:;<IJ
(NorthAmericanensembleforecastsystem,NAEFS)(Tothetal.,2005),
��wxß°±
²¾³OPß³æ|
(FleetNumericalMeteorologyandOceanographyCenter,FNMOC)
Ñ_²�6
,�
x
(UKMO)�æx
(CMA)́sÕ©[\�+��
6
。�ÄådGH£}-æ|-°±
GEFS,��
JK}Wó÷ø
:ª&ä{;<¾G
(��O�w
x¬
20d9:Zs};<
),x¿sZsJK¹G
Ç
,.¹:¿¿s9:ZsOhi9};<��
。
×
2N��
NCEP�
CMC¬
20dù¤V�Ûѹ
}9:Zs
,D:¿¹}
40d
NAEFSZs}
CRPSS(continuousrankedprobabilityskillscore)́dLË
,ã�+�¡9:;<}��w
(reliability)�ËÌ#½
(resolution)(Zhuetal.,1996),�+µ
h
NCEP�
CMC;<¨IN�¶·
,:¿¹}
NAEFS;<µ¶?�q²
,3Ù��;<p¨p
。
ZhuandToth(2008)x
2006/2007$¸¹};<¨
I´d´OP�¢n}HI
。NAEFS4
TIGGEÕ
©sº»ï}¼I
,NAEFS÷�C¦
TIGGE}4
5ZI�JåeKL
,¢pH8?�EF-°±9
:;<IJ?@�GHTU
,�ÍdÕ©i9ê:
¿8ådGHIJ
—EFª«±;<IJ
(globalinteractiveforecastingsystem,GIFS),
+?�xEF
����P};<�;�#½
。
5 cd
9:;<ÌZ8à½å�a�};<µ®ÞE
F-dxy�g�}GH�45æ|¿¥¦
,3Ù
Ħy?�x����P};�
。[³¤H���
ir� w}
3d
GEFS———NCEP、ECMWF�
CMC?Z¾½}KLî¼
。ÏyÕû��}�p
|L
,¬æ|9:;<IJ}°±ËÌÍ
、9:Zs
¾´.¡��
。·¸S¦sÊ}Õû��
,c�i
j};<¨I
,ðö°±ËÌÍ�9:Zs¾}i
¿Ð:386ò
。¢p¬æ|á��pg�½yK
L��¾z{�°±òó6é
。Ùæz{òó6é
7iz}�"7¡é
(NCEP)、$%7¡é
(ECMWF)、
��òóé
(CMC)QÔ8��}aÔÝ�£
9:ì&é
(NCEP)、9:��¢£
—$%7¡é
(ECMWF)�9:ü.'()
(CMC),KL4��
¢£5H:}z{òó6é´êZ8+�ÔÕz{
�çèw}��4567
。xy4°±s6}�ç
èw
,ECMWF�
CMCáÚÛ�¬Y}./ξ£
6Ï�-ξ£6Ï
,NCEPiÈ´�°±æ�6
8D@¾¿¿2 À
34Á
ghij
\\Dz02\D\kl
\OPQR
\2011$ORQR
\2011$!
3#
.PS 2mn
oj
:kl
pq
2011$
4%
25
×
2 2008$
12%
1Å
00p
—2009$
2%
28Å
00p
(ÆÑp
)ýüF
500hPa¢
£��|9:;<}
CRPSSFig.2 CRPSSfor500hPageopotentialheightovertheNorthernHemisphereextratrop
icsforthewinterof2008—2009
�./E17òó
。
-°±
、-æ|9:;<Ä8"°±IJ��
}s¨6é
,�d q;<¨I5¶·}°±Ð:
�+s¨g?�;<µ¶
。��?�
1~14d��
��P;<_çÍ}
TIGGEÕ©
,�J�x�qx
-°±
、-Ë-9:;<}:ó45
,8?�EF-
°±9:;<IJ?@�Ç��O
,ýw9:;<
IJ
(NAEFS)��+8Ù?@GHTU
,�áês
by+�EFª«±GH;<IJ}õ?
。
æx
GEFS}µ®Éÿ´��p}?�
(ÀÁ
Â�Ã�Ä
,1999;ÅÆÇ��ÈÉ
,2002;ÊËÌ
C
,2007),3Ù�
TIGGEÕ©}ÍóÇ
,CMAGH
ÎK}+�"7¡é8z{òó6é}
T213L31EF°±9:;<��´Þ¹6
TIGGEª&��
¡æ
,Õ��z{òó6é
、°±����}/Ç�
vñC6iá¼L�s6}45
,¿?���y
TIGGE��}æxm�P�6é+Dª«±�
ÎÏÐ;<°C
。
ef
:fÉÊjGËÌ:
,56678912:;Í
{ÎÏÐAÑÒÓÏÐÔÕ#Ö×عAÙ;Ú
Û
,fÜ)ÝÞß
!
ghLM
:Zq�
,@AB
.2004.9:;<6é45DC¦JLMN
[J].ST
PYRÑR<
,27(2):279288.
ÀÁÂ
,Ã�Ä
.1999.æ#¾³�P;<GH}ÒÓ4LÔ
[J].P
YQR
,19(1):104110.
6�ÿ
,Ã�Ä
,ÃÕ
.2006.9:;<45�z4LÔ
[J].PYQ
R
,26(2):228235.
ÊËÌ
,Ö×Ø
,ÙÚÛ
.2007.�y
WardÜ�é}æxGH9:;
<IJ}��¼K
[J].PY
,33(12):915.
ÅÆÇ
,�ÈÉ
.2002.xyPYæ|9:¾³;<GHIJ}KL
DC¦
[J].C¦PYR<
,13(1):115.
©ª«
,=xÝ
,ÅÆÇ
.2010.�y
TIGGE���¬Cw���
��}C¦45
[J].C¦PYR<
,21(4):405415.
�©�
,ÞßÆ
,àáâ
,C
.2009.ýüFæ¨�g�giPà}l
Á9:;<
[J].PYQR
,29(5):569574.
�©�
,��
.2010.THORPEXx�QR45ÔJL
[J].OPQR
R<
,33(4):504511.
=>?
.2010.;<QR
[J].OPQRR<
,33(3):266270.
BarkmeijerJ,VanGijzenM,BouttierF.1998.Singularvectorsandesti
matesoftheanalysiserrorcovariancemetric[J].QuartJRoyMe
teorSoc,124:16951713.
BarkmeijerJ,BuizzaR,PalmerTN.2001.Tropicalsingularvectors
computedwithlinearizeddiabaticphysics[J].QuartJRoyMeteor
Soc,127:685708.
BernerJ,ShuttsGJ,LeutbecherM,etal.2009.Aspectralstochasticki
neticenergybackscatterschemeanditsimpactonflowdependent
predictabilityintheECMWFensemblepredictionsystem[J].J
AtmosSci,66:603626.
BishopCH,TothZ.1999.Ensembletransformationandadaptiveobser
vations[J].JAtmosSci,56:17481765.
BishopCH,EthertonBJ,MajumdarS.2001.Adaptivesamplingwith
theensembletransform Kalmanfilter.PartI:Theoreticalaspects
9À
3> ÂÃÄ
,Å
:NCEP、ECMWFÆ
CMC-./012³´34JKÇÈ
ghij
\\Dz02\D\kl
\OPQR
\2011$ORQR
\2011$!
3#
.PS 2mn
oj
:kl
pq
2011$
4%
25
[J].MonWeaRev,129:420436.
BowlerNE.2006.Comparisonoferrorbreeding,singularvectors,ran
domperturbationsandensembleKalmanfilterperturbationstrate
giesonasimplemodel[J].Tellus,58A:538548.
BuizzaR,PalmerTN.1995.Thesingularvectorstructureoftheatmos
phericglobalcirculation[J].JAtmosSci,52:14341456.
BuizzaR,MillerM,PalmerTN.1999.Stochasticrepresentationof
modeluncertaintiesintheECMWFensemblepredictionsystem
[J].QuartJRoyMeteorSoc,125:28872908.
BuizzaR,HoutekamerPL,TothZ,etal.2005.Acomparisonofthe
ECMWF,MSC,NCEPglobalensemblepredictionsystems[J].
MonWeaRev,133:10761097.
BuizzaR,LeutbecherM,IsaksenL.2008.Potentialuseofanensemble
ofanalysesintheECMWFensemblepredictionsystem[J].Quart
JRoyMeteorSoc,134:20512066.
BuizzaR,LeutbecherM,IsaksenL,etal.2010.CombineduseofEDA
andSVbasedperturbationsintheEPS[J].ECMWFNewsletter,
123:2228.
BougeaultP,TothZ,BishopC,etal.2010.TheTHORPEXinteractive
grandglobalensemble(TIGGE)[J].BullAmerMeteorSoc,91:
10591072.doi:101175/2010BAMS28531.
CharronM,PellerinG,SpacekL,etal.2010.Towardsrandomsampling
ofmodelerrorintheCanadianensemblepredictionsystem[J].Mon
WeaRev,138(5):18771901.doi:101175/2009MWR31871.
CoteJ,GravelS,MethotA,etal.1998.TheoperationalCMCMRB
globalenvironmentalmultiscale(GEM)model.PartI:Designcon
siderationsandformulation[J].MonWeaRev,126:13731395.
DescampsL,TalagrandO.2007.Onsomeaspectsofthedefinitionof
initialconditionsforensembleprediction[J].MonWeaRev,135:
32603272.
HoffmanN,KalnayE.1983.Laggedaveragedforecasting,analternative
toMonteCarloforecasting[J].Tellus,35A:100118.
HouD,TothZ,ZhuY.2006.Astochasticparameterizationscheme
withinNCEPglobalensembleforecastsystem[C]∥Extendedab
stract,the18thAMSconferenceonprobabilityandstatistics,29
January—2February2006,Atlanta,Georgia.
HouD,TothZ,ZhuY,etal.2008.Impactofastochasticperturbation
schemeonNCEPglobalensembleforecastsystem[C]∥Extended
abstract,the19thAMSconferenceonprobabilityandstatistics,
21—24January2008,NewOrleans,Louisiana.
HouD,TothZ,ZhuY,etal.2010.Astochastictotaltendencyperturba
tionschemerepresentingmodelrelateduncertaintiesintheNCEP
globalensembleforecast[J].SubmittedtoTellus.
HoutekamerPL,LefaivreL,DeromeJ,etal.1996.Asystemsimulation
approachtoensembleprediction[J].MonWeaRev,124:
12251242.
HoutekamerPL,MitchellHL.2005.EnsembleKalmanfiltering[J].
QuartJRoyMeteorSoc,131:32693289.
HoutekamerPL,CharronM,MitchellHL,etal.2007.Statusofthe
globalEPSatenvironmentCanada[R]∥ProcECMWFworkshop
onensembleprediction,7—9November2007,ECMWF,Shinfield
Park,Reading,BerkshireRG29AX,UK,5768.
JiaoM.2010.Progressonthekeytechnologydevelopmentinapplica
tionofensemblepredictionproductsassociatedwithTIGGE[J].
ActaMeteorSinica,68:136.
JohnsonC,SwinbankR.2009.Mediumrangemultimodelensemble
combinationandcalibration[J].QuartJRoyMeteorSoc,135:
777794.
JoslynS,PakK,JonesD,etal.2007.Theeffectofprobabilisticinfor
mationonthresholdforecasts[J].WeaForecasting,22:804812.
LeithCE.1974.TheoreticalskillofMonteCarloforecasts[J].Mon
WeaRev,102:409418.
LorenzEN.1963.Deterministicnonperiodicflow[J].JAtmosSci,
20:130141.
MagnussonL,LeutbecherM,KallenE.2008.Comparisonbetweensin
gularvectorsandbreedingvectorsasinitialperturbationsforthe
ECMWFensemblepredictionsystem[J].MonWeaRev,136:
40924104.
MagnussonL,NycanderJ,KallenE.2009.Flowdependentversusflow
independentinitialperturbationsforensembleprediction[J].Tel
lus,61A:194209.
MolteniF,BuizzaR,PalmerTN,etal.1996.TheECMWFensemble
predictionsystem:Methodologyandvalidation[J].QuartJRoy
MeteorSoc,122:73119.
NadavGreenbergL,JoslynS.2009.Uncertaintyforecastsimprovedeci
sionmakingamongnonexperts[J].JournalofCognitiveEngi
neeringandDecisionMaking,3:209227.
PalmerTN,BuizzaR,LeutbecherM,etal.2007.Theensemblepredic
tionsystemrecentandongoingdevelopments[R]∥ECMWF
tech.memo.no.540,ECMWF,ShinfieldPark,Reading,Berkshire
RG29AX,UK.
PalmerTN,BuizzaR,DoblasReyesF,etal.2009.Stochasticparame
trizationandmodeluncertainty[R]∥ECMWFtech.memo.no.
598,ECMWF,ShinfieldPark,Reading,BerkshireRG29AX,UK.
ParkY-Y,BuizzaR,LeutbecherM.2008.TIGGE:Preliminaryresults
oncomparingandcombiningensembles[J].QuartJRoyMeteor
Soc,134:20292050.
RichardsonD,BuizzaR,HagedornR.2005.Finalreportofthe1st
workshopontheTHORPEX interactivegrandglobalensemble
(TIGGE)[C]∥WMO/TDNo.1273,WWRPTHORPEXNo.5.
RitchieH,BeaudoinC.1994.Approximationsandsensitivityexperi
mentswithabaroclinicsemiLagrangianspectralmodel[J].Mon
WeaRev,122:23912399.
ShuttsGJ.2004.Astochastickineticenergybackscatteralgorithmfor
useinensemblepredictionsystems[R]∥ECMWFtech.memo.
no.449,ECMWF,Shinfield Park,Reading,Berkshire RG2
9AX,UK.
ShuttsGJ.2005.Akineticenergybackscatteralgorithmforuseinen
semblepredictionsystems[J].QuartJRoyMeteorSoc,131:3079
3102.
TitleyH,SavageN,SwinbankR,etal.2008.ComparisonbetweenMet
OfficeandECMWFmediumrangeensembleforecastsystems[C]
∥MeteorologyR&Dtechnicalreportno.512,MetOffice.
TothZ,KalnayE.1993.EnsembleforecastingatNMC:Thegeneration
01D@¾¿¿2 À
34Á
ghij
\\Dz02\D\kl
\OPQR
\2011$ORQR
\2011$!
3#
.PS 2mn
oj
:kl
pq
2011$
4%
25
ofperturbations[J].BullAmerMeteorSoc,174:23172330.
TothZ,KalnayE.1997.EnsembleforecastingatNCEPandthebreeding
method[J].MonWeaRev,125:32973319.
TothZ,DesmaraisJ,BrunetG,etal.2005.TheNorthAmericanensem
bleforecastsystem(NAEFS)[C]∥Abstract,the1stTHORPEX
internationalsciencesymposium,December2004,Montreal,Cana
da.
TothZ,SchultzP,MullenS,etal.2007.Completingtheforecast:Asses
singandcommunicatingforecastuncertainty[R]∥ECMWFwork
shoponensembleprediction,7—9November2007,ECMWF,
ShinfieldPark,Reading,BerkshireRG29AX,UK,2336.
WangX,BishopCH.2003.Acomparisonofbreedingandensemble
transformKalmanfilterensembleforecastschemes[J].JAtmos
Sci,60:11401158.
WeiM,TothZ,WobusR,etal.2006.EnsembletransformKalmanfil
terbasedensembleperturbationsinanoperationalglobalprediction
systematNCEP[J].Tellus,58A:2844.
WeiM,TothZ,WobusR,etal.2008.Initialperturbationsbasedonthe
ensembletransform(ET)techniqueintheNCEPglobaloperational
forecastsystem[J].Tellus,60A:6279.
ZhuY,IyengarG,TothZ,etal.1996.ObjectiveevaluationoftheNCEP
globalensembleforecastingsystem[C]∥Extendedabstract,the
15thAMSconferenceonweatheranalysisandforecasting,19—23
August1996,Norfolk,Virginia.
ZhuY,TothZ,WobusR,etal.2002.Theeconomicvalueofensemble
basedweatherforecasts[J].BullAmerMeteorSoc,83:7383.
ZhuY,TothZ.2008.Ensemblebasedprobabilisticforecastverification
[C]∥Extendedabstract,the19thAMSconferenceonprobability
andstatistics,21—24January2008,NewOrleans,Louisiana.
(àáâã
:äåæ
)
11À
3> ÂÃÄ
,Å
:NCEP、ECMWFÆ
CMC-./012³´34JKÇÈ