Election 2012: A Brief Overview and Analysis
October 10, 2012
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..3
2. Views of the Candidates..……………………………………………….…….6
3. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race ……………..….……...10
4. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……15
5. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...23
6. The Debates……………………………………………………………………….27
Slide
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Political Context
NUMBER WHO THINK COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONG TRACK TRENDING DOWN; JOBS IS TOP ISSUE
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Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
As of October 9, 2012
PROBLEM %
Unemployment and jobs 43
The federal deficit 14
Health care 11
Gas prices 7
The situation in the Middle East 6
Taxes 4
Immigration 3
Terrorism 3
Which of the following do you see as the most important issue facing the country right now?
Source: Bloomberg National Poll, September 21-24, 2012
WRONG TRACK 54.7%
RIGHT DIRECTION 38.4%
FOLLOWING DEBATE, ROMNEY’S SUPPORTERS FAR MORE ENGAGED IN THE CAMPAIGN THAN THEY WERE IN SEPTEMBER
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Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 4-7, 2012 Among Registered Voters
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Views of the Candidates
FOLLOWING CONVENTION, AMERICANS NOW APPROVE OF OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB PERFORMANCE
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Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue…
Issue NET APPROVE
NET DISAPPROVE
Standing up for the middle class 58% 39%
Taxes 51% 46%
Foreign policy 50% 45%
Medicare 50% 44%
The economy 48% 51%
The federal budget and spending
40% 57%
Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Sept. 16-20, 2012
DISAPPROVE 47.4%
APPROVE 49.6%
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data , as of Oct. 10
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JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
Presidential Job Approval January March June October
2012: Barack Obama 44% 46% 47% ?
2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50%
1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58%
1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33%
1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58%
1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32%
1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32%
1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59%
1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74%
Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election
President’s in red lost re-election
Obama Averages 49% Job Approval in September
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Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
ROMNEY’S POPULARITY SEES IMPROVEMENT, OBAMA IS VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY
UNFAVORABLE 45.1% FAVORABLE 51.5%
UNFAVORABLE 48.5% FAVORABLE 46.3%
As of October 9, 2012
Barack Obama Favorable Rating Mitt Romney Favorable Rating
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Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race
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FOLLOWING DEBATE, OBAMA’S LEAD OVER ROMNEY HAS DISAPPEARED
Source: RCP Poll Average
October 10, 2008 %
Obama 49.4
McCain 42.8
Obama +6.6
October 9, 2008 %
Bush 48.0
Kerry 45.8
Bush +2.2
A Look Back Four Years Ago Today
Eight Years Ago Today
Source: Real Clear Politics
From Sept 26 to Oct 10
OBAMA 47.2%
ROMNEY 48.0% +0.8
October 3, 2012
+3.1
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AMONG LIKELY VOTERS
Note: “Other (vol),” and “Undecided” results are not shown.
45%
94%
42%
7%
49%
5%
46%
91%
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Obama Romney
ROMNEY HAS SLIGHT LEAD AMONG INDEPENDENTS
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, Oct 4-7, 2012
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ROMNEY PULLS EVEN AS “STRONG LEADER”
As I read a list of phrases, tell me if you think each phrase better describes Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, Oct 4-7, 2012 Note: “Both (vol.),” “Neither (vol.),” and “No opinion” results are not shown.
38% 44%
51% 44%
35% 42%
52% 45%
34% 39%
48% 44%
23% 30%
66% 59%
Is a strong leader Is willing to work with leaders from
the other party
Is honest and truthful
Connects well with ordinary Americans
Before Debate
After Debate
Before Debate
After Debate
Before Debate
After Debate
Before Debate
After Debate
Obama Romney
Among Registered Voters
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ROMNEY NOW LEADS ON JOBS, BUDGET DEFICIT
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, Oct 4-7, 2012
Who would do better on… June 28 – Jul 9 Sept 12-16 Oct 4-7
Reducing the federal budget deficit
Obama 36% 43% 36%
Romney 50% 46% 51%
R+14 R+3 R+15
Improving the job situation
Obama 42% 46% 41%
Romney 46% 45% 49%
R+4 O+1 R+8
Dealing with taxes
Obama 48% 48% 43%
Romney 40% 42% 47%
O+8 O+6 R+4
Dealing with Medicare
Obama -- 51% 46%
Romney -- 38% 43%
O+13 O+3
Dealing with health care
Obama 49% 52% 47%
Romney 41% 39% 43%
O+8 O+15 O+4
Statistically significant advantages in bold
Among Registered Voters
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Battleground States
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OR
AK
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NC
NH
3 12
7
55 6
4 3
6
11 5
9
3
3
5
4
3
4
38
29
6
7
10
6
10
6
8 6 9 16
29
9 15 13
11
20 11
10 16
18 20
8 5
THE ELECTORAL MAP
Electoral Count (as shown):
Romney: 181 Obama: 251 Toss-Up: 106
VT 3
NH 4
RI 4
NJ 14
CT 7
DE 3
MD 10
DC 3
MA 11
Source: Real Clear Politics (as of October 8, 2012)
OBAMA LEADS IN FIVE TOSS-UP STATES, ROMNEY LEADS IN THREE
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Source: Real Clear Politics, as of October 9, 2012
States Obama Romney Obama Romney
Colorado 47.4% 47.2% 9 0
Florida 47% 47% 0 29
Iowa 48.6% 45.4% 6 0
Missouri 43.8% 49% 0 10
Nevada 50.3% 45.7% 6 0
North Carolina 47.6% 48.4% 0 15
Ohio 49% 46% 18 0
Virginia 47.8% 47.5% 13 0
Swing State Voters 52 54
Leaning/Likely State Voters 251 181
Total Overall Votes 303 235
RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORAL VOTES
FLORIDA: WILL IT KEEP US HANGING IN 2012?
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29 Electoral Votes
Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator
2008 Results
Obama 50.9%
McCain 48.4%
Pre-Debate
Obama +.1
Obama: 47.3%
Romney: 47.2%
Post-Debate
Romney +1.3
Romney: 48.1%
Obama: 46.8%
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18 Electoral Votes
Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator
Pre-Debate
Obama +3.4
Obama: 48.2%
Romney: 44.8%
Post-Debate
Obama +2.2
Obama: 47.8%
Romney: 45.6%
OHIO: WILL IT BUCK THE TREND AS A SWING STATE?
2008 Results
Obama 51.2%
McCain 47.2%
VIRGINIA: BLUE AND RED GO HEAD TO HEAD
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13 Electoral Votes
Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator
Pre-Debate
Obama +.7
Obama: 47.3%
Romney: 46.6%
Post-Debate
Romney +.6
Romney: 47.4%
Obama: 46.8%
2008 Results
Obama 52.7%
McCain 46.4%
NORTH CAROLINA: WILL IT SHOCK US AGAIN?
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15 Electoral Votes
Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator
Pre-Debate
Romney +2.7
Romney: 48.5%
Obama: 45.8%
Post-Debate
Romney +4.2
Romney: 49.4%
Obama: 45.2%
2008 Results
Obama 49.9%
McCain 49.5%
COLORADO: CAN THEY GET IT RIGHT 4 TIMES IN A ROW?
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9 Electoral Votes
Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator
Pre-Debate
Obama +1.2
Obama: 47.6%
Romney: 46.4%
Post-Debate
Obama +.8
Obama: 47.5%
Romney: 46.8%
2008 Results
Obama 53.5%
McCain 44.9%
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Battle for Congress
2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH
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Likely Dem (6) Lean Dem (3) Toss-Up (11) Lean Rep (0) Likely Rep (1)
ME* (Open) – Republican FL (Nelson) – Democrat AZ (Open) – Republican NE (Open) – Democrat
HI (Open) – Democrat NM (Open) – Democrat CT (Open) – Democrat
MI (Stabenow) – Democrat PA (Casey) – Democrat IN (Open) – Republican
NJ (Menendez) – Democrat MA (Brown) – Republican
WA (Cantwell) – Democrat MO (McCaskill) – Democrat
WV (Manchin) – Democrat MT (Tester) – Democrat
NV (Heller) – Republican
ND (Open) – Democrat
OH (Brown) – Democrat
VA (Open) – Democrat
WI (Open) – Democrat
Source: Real Clear Politics, as of October 9, 2012 *Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if he wins the open Maine seat
LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES
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Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of October 9, 2012)
OR
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NC
NH
OH
(8/20 – 9/19)
Rehberg : 46% Tester: 44%
MT
Heller: 45% Berkley: 43%
(9/18-9/27)
(9/16-10/6)
Baldwin: 49% Thompson: 44%
(9/16-10/3)
McCaskill: 46% Akin: 44%
Kaine: 49% Allen: 44%
(9/24-10/7)
Warren: 47%
Brown: 45%
(9/21-10/7)
WI
NV
MO VA
MA
AZ
Flake: 44% Carmona: 42%
(9/25-10/3)
ND
(5/3-7/11)
Berg: 49% Heitkamp: 44%
CT
(9/11-10/2)
Murphy: 44% McMahon: 41%
Brown: 48% Mandel: 43%
(9/27-10/4)
VOTERS NOW PREFER THE SAME PARTY TO HAVE CONTROL OF CONGRESS AND PRESIDENCY
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Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey, September 26-30, 2012
In general, do you think that it is better for the same political party to control both the Congress and the presidency, so they can work together more closely, or do you think that it is better to have different political parties controlling Congress and the presidency to prevent either one from going too far?
28% 23% 24%
39% 43% 41% 41% 31%
52%
64% 67% 67%
47% 44% 47% 48%
62%
39%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Better if same partycontrols Congressand the presidency
Better if differentparties controlCongress and thepresidency
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The Debates
DEBATE WATCHERS SAY ROMNEY DID BETTER
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Source: Gallup Poll, Oct 4-5, 2012
72%
97%
70%
49%
20%
2%
19%
39%
All Republicans Independents Democrats0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100% Romney Obama
Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in last/Wednesday night’s debate – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?
AMONG DEBATE WATCHERS
Note: “Both,” “Neither,” and “No opinion” results are not shown.
UPCOMING DEBATE SCHEDULE
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Date Debate Focus
Thurs, Oct 11 Vice Presidential Debate Foreign and domestic topics
Tues, Oct 16 Second Presidential Debate Town meeting format
Mon, Oct 22 Third Presidential Debate Foreign policy
Source: Commission on Presidential Debates
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GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.
For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Joel Johnson ([email protected]) or David Cantor ([email protected])