J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 6

Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis

M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y

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N U M B ER O F A M E R IC ANS W H O V I E W C O U NTRY O N T H E W R O N G T R A C K I S H I G H ES T S I N CE 2 0 1 2

The percentage of Americans saying the nation

is heading in the right direction hasn’t topped 50%

in about a decade.

Source: HuffPost Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 12, 2016

RIGHT DIRECTION 25.2%

WRONG TRACK 65.5%

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A M E R IC ANS A R E D I S S AT ISF IED O R A N G R Y A B O UT T H E WAY T H I N GS A R E G O I N G I N WA S H I NG TON

Which comes closest to your feelings about the way things are going in Washington –enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?

Source: CBS News / NY Times Poll, December 4-8, 2015

31%

53%

12%

1%

Angry

Dissatisfied but not angry

Satisfied but not enthusiastic

Enthusiastic

47% 49%

Approve Disapprove

Barack Obama's Current Job Approval

15%

75%

Approve Disapprove

Congress Current Job Approval

Source: CBS News / NY Times Poll, January 7-10, 2016

Source: Gallup Poll, January 4-10, 2016

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P U B L I C’S I S S UE P R I ORI TI ES R E F L ECT S A N AT I ON T H AT F E E L S L E S S S E C U RE

Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, December 6-9, 2015

Let me list some issues that have been proposed for the federal government to

address. Please tell me which ONE OR TWO of these items you think should be the top

priority for the federal government?

National security has become the top issue on the public’s mind for the federal

government to address, overtaking jobs and the

economy.

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D I S T I NCT S P L I T B E T WE EN T H E PA R TIE S O N T H E M O S T I M P O RTAN T I S S UE

38%

17% 19%

8%

2%

29%

38%

5% 7%4%

Economy Terrorism Health Care Immigration Tax Policy

Democrats Republicans

Which of these is the single most important issue in your choice for president?

Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, December 10-13, 2015

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D I F F E RENCE S I N AT T RI BUT ES V O T E RS A R E L O O K I NG F O R I N T H E I R PA R TY ’S N O M INE E; D E M O CRATS D E S IR E F O R A L I B E R AL C A N D ID ATE H A S G R O W N

Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015

Democrats Republicans

Shares values 19% 20%

Cares about needs/problems

28% 13%

Strong leadership 16% 29%

Honest/Trustworthy 14% 21%

Right experience 16% 8%

Best chance of winning 6% 7%

Thinking about your party’s nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you?

December 2007 December 2015

60% 60%

Republicans / Leaners Who Prefer Conservative Presidential Candidate

December 2007 December 2015

30% 36%

Democrats / Leaners Who Prefer Liberal Presidential Candidate

Source: Gallup Poll, December 2-6, 2015

2 0 1 6 – E L E C T I O N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :R E P U B L I CA N N O M I N A T I O N

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S TA R TED W I T H 1 7 , N O W D O W N T O 1 2 C A N D IDATE S

Dropped Out

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H I G H ER C A M PAI GN I N T E REST A M O N G R E P U BLI CANS T H A N AT S A M E P O I N T I N ’ 0 8 ;

65%

35%

80% 79%

48%

69%

65%

34%

64%

Dec-15Jan-12Feb-08

% who would describe the presidential election campaign so far

as “interesting”

Democrat Republican Independent

Source: Pew Research Center Poll, December 8-13, 2015

74%

86%

71% 75%66%

72%

Dec-07 Dec-15

% giving a lot/some thought to the candidates

Republican Democrat Independent+10

-15

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T R U M P S U P PO RT H A S P I C K ED B A C K U P ; C A R S ON FA LTERS A S C R U Z C L I M BS

Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016

12% 14%

9%9%

7% 6% 5%6%

5% 6% 6%

8%13%

19%

11%

8%6%

9% 10%

15%11%

5%

15%

31%28% 28%

34%37%

10% 8%

14%17%

21%

14%

8%

June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan

2016 Republican Primary PreferenceAmong Republican and Republican leaning voters

Bush Cruz Rubio Trump Carson

Candidate Average

Donald Trump 37.0%Ted Cruz 19.3%

Marco Rubio 11.3%Ben Carson 7.5%

Jeb Bush 5.0%Chris Christie 3.2%Carly Fiorina 2.7%Rand Paul 2.6%

John Kasich 2.4%Mike Huckabee 2.2%Rick Santorum 0.6%

Jim Gilmore 0.0%

HuffPost Pollster Trendas of January 13, 2016

Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015 PAGE 12

M A J O RI TY O F R E P U B LIC ANS H AVE N’ T M A D E U P T H E I R M I N D S O N A C A N D IDAT E; J U S T O N E I N F O U R S AY T H E Y D E F I NIT ELY D O N ’ T WA N T T R U MP

41%36%

63%58%

64%

36%

Total Cruz supporter Trump supporter

Made up Might change

Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

5%

7%

10%

12%

13%

14%

24%

28%

Cruz

Rubio

Christie

Carson

Kasich

Paul

Bush

Trump

Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president?

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R E P U BL ICA NS H AV E M O R E C O N DI FENC E I N T R U M P T H A N O T H E R C O N T END ERS W H E N I T C O M E S T O T H E E C O N OMY, T E R ROR ISM

Source: CBS News/New York Times Poll, December 4-8, 2015

51%

23%16%

26%

15%

Donald Trump

Ben Carson Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Jeb Bush

% Very Confident

How confident are you in the candidate’s ability to make the right decisions about the economy?

40%

16%20%

30%

17%

Donald Trump

Ben Carson Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Jeb Bush

% Very Confident

How confident are you in the candidate’s ability to handle the threat of terrorism?

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T R U M P A N D C R U Z R U N A C L O S E R A C E I N I O WA W H I L E T R U MP L E A D S I N N E W H A M P SH IRE

Candidate Average

Donald Trump 29.1%Marco Rubio 14.2%

Ted Cruz 11.9%Chris Christie 11.3%John Kasich 10.5%

Candidate Average

Donald Trump 27.9%Ted Cruz 27.7%

Marco Rubio 12.7%Ben Carson 7.6%

Jeb Bush 4.2%

Source: HuffPost Pollster, based on the average of the most recent polls by unique pollsters

2 0 1 6 – E L E C T I O N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N

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C L I N TON O N T O P I N D E M O C RATI C R A C E, B U T S A N DER S H A S N A R R OWE D H E R L E A D

Candidate Average

Hillary Clinton 52.4%Bernie Sanders 38.5%Martin O’Malley 2.4%

HuffPost Pollster Trendas of January 13, 2016

Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Jan, 2016

12%17%

24% 25%30% 33%

39%

60% 58%

47% 45%

55% 56% 52%

June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan

2016 Democratic Primary PreferenceAmong registered/leaned Democrats

Sanders Clinton

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M A J O RI TY O F D E M O C RATS H AV E T H E IR M I N D M A D E U P O N W H I C H C A N D IDAT E T H E Y A R E S U P P ORTI NG

57% 59% 55%

41% 38%44%

Total Clinton supporter

Sanders supporter

Made up Might change

Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

8%

9%

19%

58%

Clinton

Sanders

O'Malley

No one

Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president?

Source: Quinnipiac Poll, December 16-20, 2015

Source: HuffPost Pollster, based on the average of the most recent polls by unique pollsters PAGE 18

T H E R A C E I S C L O S E B E T W EEN C L I NTON A N D S A N DE RS I N B O T H I O WA A N D N E W H A M P S HIRE

Candidate Average

Bernie Sanders 49.8%Hillary Clinton 44.3%

Martin O’Malley 2.7%

Candidate Average

Hillary Clinton 45.9%Bernie Sanders 42.2%Martin O’Malley 5.1%

P R E D I C T I O N M A R K E T & W H A T ’ S U P C O M I N G

PAGE 20

T H E P R E D I CTI ON M A R K ETS

Source: PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster

3%

10%

21%

32%

34%

Chris Christie

Jeb Bush

Ted Cruz

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

PredictWise Chance of Winning Republican Nomination

1%

16%

83%

Martin O'Malley

Bernie Sanders

Hillary Clinton

PredictWise Chance of Winning Democratic Nomination

As of January 14th

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A M A J O RIT Y O F A M E R I CANS H AV E WAT CH ED AT L E A S T S O M E O F T H E P R E S I DEN TIA L D E B ATES, A C O M P LE TE C O N T RAST T O 8 Y E A R S A G O

Source: Pew Research Center, December 8-13, 2015

43%

69%

57%

31%

Dec-07

Dec-15

Yes No

So far, have you watched any of the televised debates between presidential candidates or haven’t you had a chance to watch any of them?

PAGE 22Source: Washington Post

D E B ATE S C H E DUL E

PAGE 23

E A R LY 2 0 1 6 P R I MA RY & C A U C US C A L E NDA R

Note: All dates tentative and subject to change prior to 2016

Date State

Monday, February 1, 2016 Iowa (caucus)Tuesday, February 9, 2016 New Hampshire (primary)Saturday, February 20, 2016 South Carolina (primary)Tuesday, February 23, 2016 Nevada (caucus)

Tuesday, March 1, 2016 Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas

Tuesday, March 15, 2016 Florida (primary)

18 DAYS UNTIL IOWA CAUCUS

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M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CAN S B E L I EVE T H E 2 0 1 6 C A M PAIGN T O B E “ I N T E RES TING ,” “ T O O N E G ATI VE, ” A N D “ N O T F O C US ED O N I M P O RTAN T P O L IC Y D E B ATES .”

Source: Pew Research Center, December 8-13, 2015

26%

67%

Dull Interesting

Would you describe the presidential campaign as dull or interesting?

54%

39%

Too negative Not too negative

34%

58%

Focused on important policy

debates

Not focused on important policy

debates

Would you describe the presidential campaign as too negative or not?

Would you describe the presidential campaign as focused on important policy debates or not?

PAGE 25

N E I T HE R F R O NT RUNN ER M E T W I T H A L O T O F E N T H USI ASM; S O M E WHAT M O R E A N X IE TY A B O U T A T R U MP P R E S ID ENCY T HAN A C L I N TON O N E

Source: CBS News/New York Times Poll, Dec 4-8, 2015

If Donald Trump is elected as President, what best describes your feelings about what he will do in office?

If Hillary Clinton is elected as President, what best describes your feelings about what she will do in office?

Total Rep Dem Ind

Excited 11% 25% 2% 8%

Optimistic, not excited

24% 41% 8% 23%

Concerned,not scared

24% 20% 25% 26%

Scared 40% 13% 63% 41%

Total Rep Dem Ind

Excited 9% 2% 22% 4%

Optimistic, not excited

33% 8% 54% 35%

Concerned,not scared

23% 24% 17% 27%

Scared 34% 65% 6% 32%

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GPG ResearchThe Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs.

Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it.

For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:

Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)