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This report highlights US economic performance via three key indices. The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through equally weighted payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Business Health Index provides a year-over-year equally weighted average of D&B’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor.
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18%
.01%
.02%
Payment Delinquency
Credit Card Delinquency
Credit Card Use
Manufacturing Retail
Real Estate
Construction
Business Services
Trade, Transportation
& Utilities
Small Business Health Index
U.S. Jobs Health
D&B U.S. Economic Health TrackerA multi-dimensional view of the U.S. Economy
D&B’s Small Business Health Index has contracted modestly. Underlying factors of this critically important segment—like credit demand and financial performance—remain positive and support the outlook for moderate improvement in the economic recovery.
D&B estimates 216,000 new jobs were added to U.S. payrolls in December 2013, with significant gains in retail, due to seasonal factors. The overall pace of employment growth is projected to continue improving modestly.
January 2014
Small Business Health Index: Overall
Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics
60
80
100
120
Dec' 13Dec '10Dec '08Dec '06Dec '04
0.2points
US Jobs Health: Overall
Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics
140000
160000
180000
200000
220000
Dec' 13Nov' 13Oct '13Sept '13Aug '13Jul '13
216,000
www.dnb.com/tracker
The D&B U.S. Economic Health Tracker revealed more bright spots for U.S. businesses in December 2013. In spite of a slight decline in the Small Business Health Index, the U.S. small business sector continues to improve steadily. The recovery process for small businesses in the U.S. remains uneven, although improvement has touched most verticals and geographic areas in the last year. Meanwhile, an estimated 216,000 new jobs were created, with most sectors reporting higher gains than the previous month. The retail segment helped drive growth in U.S. payrolls for the month. Finally, overall U.S. business health strengthened in December, registering a 53-percent index value, up 2 percent compared to December 2012. This marked the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year growth among U.S. businesses, based on the weighted average of D&B’s Viability Rating, Delinquency Predictor, and Total Loss Predictor. All told, the U.S. recovery continues to demonstrate high levels of resiliency as companies seek out new business opportunities.
The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Business Health Index provides a year-over-year weighted average of D&B’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor. The cumulative diffusion index—which measures the breadth of change—ranges from zero (with all businesses recording high levels of risk) to 100% (with all businesses recording low levels of risk). Data available as of Dec. 31, 2013.
Methodology
www.dnb.com/tracker January 2014
About Dun & Bradstreet® (D&B)Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE:DNB) is the world’s leading source of commercial information and insight on businesses, enabling companies to Decide with Confidence® for 172 years. D&B’s global commercial database contains more than 230 million business records. The database is enhanced by D&B’s proprietary DUNSRight® Quality Process, which provides our customers with quality business information. This quality information is the foundation of our global solutions that customers rely on to make critical business decisions.
© Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 2013. All rights reserved. (DB-3716 1/14)
U.S. Business Health Index
To learn more, visit www.dnb.com/tracker
Perspectives
5.9%
0.2%
Viability
Delinquency
0.3%Total Loss
US Business Health Index: Overall
Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics
45
50
55
Dec' 13Jan '13Feb' 12
IMPROVEMENT
NO CHANGE
DETERIORATION
2.0%
TOTAL INDEX VALUE53.7
U.S. business health improved 2 percent in December 2013. Businesses continued to improve their balance sheets and overall financial performance, extending a trend that accelerated in 2012.
How to read this indicator:
A reading of 50%
represents “no change.” A reading of
more than 50% reflects
improvement and a reading
of less than 50% reflects
deterioration.
