Population Dynamic

AS LEVEL HUMAN GEOGRAPHY

TOPICS TO BE DISCUSSED

Natural Increase and changes in

Population

Demographic Transition

Population and Resources

Management of Population

Growth

Demographic Changes in Recent Time• Millions of years ago –

population growth rate was 0.1%• One of the first rise in the rate of

population growth came around the time of the Industrial Revolution

• Population has been increasing very rapidly since the 1950’s Baby boom

• We are currently at 7 billion and will most likely be reaching 8 billion in 13 years

Demographic Changes in Recent Times• Most of the population growth occur in LEDCs –

since 1950• MEDCs had their peak growth nearer to the first

Industrial Revolution• Mid-1960s – population growth rate in LEDC was

2.4%• By 1990s had drop to 1.8%• Rate of population growth in MEDCs is now very low• While only in nations like Africa do we still see VERY

high rate of growth

Population Density

Ranking of population total1. East Asia – 1.58 billion2. South Asia – 1.5 billion3. Central-South Africa – 700 M4. Southeast Asia – 600 M5. Middle East – 550 M6. South America – 550 M7. Europe – 400 M8. North America – 340 M9. Eastern Europe – 220 M10. Russia – 145 M11. Japan – 127 M12. Mexico -115 M13. Central Asia – 100 M14. Mediterranean – 70 M15. Central America – 45 M16. Caribbean – 40 M17. Oceania – 23 M

Where do people live (settle)Factors affecting where people settle1. Climate2. Geology3. Morphology, relief4. Vegetation

Climate• Polar regions are not densely

populated (Arctic, Antarctic, Greenland, Tibetan Plateau, Canada)

• Arid areas are not densely populated (Sub-Saharan, Victoria desert, Arabian desert, Western coast of Africa, Kalahari, Gobi)

• Tropic regions – usually quite populated

• Mediterranean climates are mild• Mid-latitude areas – densely populated

Geology• Fertile soil – very attractive• Coastal Margin – usually

flat – develop into a Port town

• Hard, impermeable surface – difficult to farm in

• Frozen soil in Permafrost – not suitable

• Arid soil in desert – not suitable

Natural Hazards• People may avoid

volcanoes• Areas that can be flooded• Mountainous regions in

risk of mass movement• However, certain

volcanoes offer fertile soil (Mt. Pinatubo)

Morphology/ Landforms• Mountainous areas are not densely

populated (Rocky system, Himalayas, Alps, Andes, Kilimanjaro)

• Plains/ Floodplains/ Delta – Populated

Vegetation• Too vegetated not well populated

(Amazon) – Too dense• Coniferous forest – difficult to settle near• Grasslands are more highly populated

Human impacts to population distribution• Historical Factors• Economic Factors• Transport/ Communication• Political Factors

Historical Factor• Stable civilizations (China,

India, Southeast Asia)• The civilization started

slow• The long continuous

growth• Added up to a large

population• THIS HAS TO BE

CONDUCIVE OF THE PHYSICAL AREA

Historical Factors• Europe – Industrial Revolution marked the

first growth of population• North America followed• Allowed for more availability of food• Lower death rate

Economic Factors• Rural areas of Farmland

are not well populated – subsistence farming low in population

• Areas with intensive farming – more popular (Netherland)

• Urban areas – economy of scale, agglomeration of businesses are more popular

4 most populated area• East Asia• South Asia• Europe• Eastern coast of United State

Components of Population Change• P = (B-D) + M• Population = (Birth - Death) + Migration• Can be expressed in absolute term – real

numbers• Can be expressed in rate per thousands

Terms and concepts• Crude Birth Rate: The Number of Birth per

1000 people per year, not taking in account the gender and age (to be fair, the ratio should only be limited to woman and to people whose age are capable of child birth)

• Fertility Rate: the number of live birth per 1000 woman per year

• Total Fertility Rate: The average number of live birth born to a woman in her lifetime

Definition• Replacement fertility is the total fertility

rate at which women give birth to enough babies to sustain population levels.

Fertility RateThe measurement of population growth

Links• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFgh9

WU0lPs&list=PLBFE251E4ED632C59&index=2

Demographic Factors• Other demographic factors• If Infant mortality Rate is high, parents

would have more kids to compensate• High death rate would always lead to

higher birth rate• More young, economically active

population

Social and Cultural Factors• Some cultures value boys• Some cultures value large

families• Certain religions value large

families• Certain religions oppose birth

control• Many society condemns barren

women with no child• Low literacy among female• Woman’s rights to make

decisions• Education on birth control

Economic Factors• Children may be used to work

in farms• Children are expected to be a

financial asset for when one grows older

• With MEDCs, Children became liability

• MEDC: High taxes, education, more housing, high living cost

• Most people in MEDCs, including women are employed – do not have time for kids

Health Care and its effect• High level of Health

care can reduce Infant Mortality Rate – Reduce Fertility Rate

• Available Contraceptive and birth control

• Lower death rate• HIV/ STD

Fertility Decline• Fertility rate has been declining in many

countries around the world• Replacement level fertility: The number of

children needed to replace a death of the parents – 2.1 (0.1 to adjust for IMR)

Reasons for Fertility Decline• Improvement in healthcare = less

Infant Mortality/ less mortality as a whole

• Birth controls – made available in LEDCs/ MEDCs

• Government policies/ awareness on population growth and effects on development

• Emancipation of woman/ more education

• Industrialization = less requirement for children to work in farms

• Many other factors…

MORTALITYThe measurement of population growth

Factors affecting Infant Mortality• The improvement in hygiene – clean water

leads to better health of the mother• The improvement in healthcare• Improvement in education – more doctors• Proximity of hospitals/ clinics – transport

and infrastructure• Education of woman – better ante-natal

care

Effects on the Mortality Rate• Crude death rate –

heavily influenced by age structure (older ages – more deaths)

• Life Expectancy/ Infant Mortality rate is a better indication of quality of life/ mortality

• Most LEDCs: Diseases common are parasitic and infectious e.g. Aids

Epidemiological transition• Most MEDCs: Diseases

common are degenerative (diabetes, heart disease)

• Health care• Education regarding health/

hygiene• Infrastructures - sewers,

hospitals, clinics• Nutrition – leads to poor

immune system• Environment – in some

urban areas of LEDCs – air pollution is common

Interpretations of the Pyramid• Population Structure: The composition of a

population, the most important elements are age and sex

• Population Pyramid: A bar chart, arranged vertically, that shows the distribution of a population by age and sex

Website on population pyramid• https://populationpyramid.net/

Dependency Ratio• Too young or too old to work = dependants• Dependency ratio = (number of young + old)/

(the rest)• 60/100 ratio means for every 100 economically

active people, there are 60 depending on them• In MEDCs = Dependency is around 50 -75 –

mostly elderly population• In LEDCs = Dependency is higher – mostly

young population

The Demographic Transition• A theory/ model that helps explain the

structure of the population and how population changes over time as the society evolves.

The Demographic Transition Model

Stage 1• Birth rate and death

rate fluctuate at high level

• Low rate of population growth

• Exist with nomadic tribes

• At this stage – human is at the expense of nature

Stage 1• Reasons for high birth rate:1. In agricultural society: need farm labors2. No contraceptive/ birth control3. Lack of good hygiene = high Infant Mortality rate – leads

to higher fertility rate4. High death rate – always associated with high birth rate5. Birth = signs of virility for men and fertility for women6. Lack of policies for population control/ no government/

taxes – living cost low7. Due to Religious reasons – higher child bearing8. Due to Early marriages – a patriarchal society- ‘women

are just there to give birth’

Stage 1• Reasons for high death rate:1. Bad sanitation/ hygiene – susceptibility

to disease – also breeding grounds for diseases (Malaria, Cholera, Bubonic, Kwashiorkor)

2. Lack of medical care3. Lack of communication/ awareness of

diseases4. Natural disasters – no way to predict/

prevent5. Nomadic lifestyle – conflicts/ raiding -

lack of a uniform law6. Lost of natural resources – famine due

to uncertain food supply

Stage 2• Signifies the fall the initial fall of Birth rate• Most people will associate this with

industrialization• A huge part of the reduction in death rate

however is a credit to medical advancement

Stage 2• Reasons for the fall of Death rate:1. Improvement in medical care

(Discovery of antibiotic)2. Child mortality reduces3. More transportation = higher

accessibility to health care all around…

4. Which is a result of urbanization – concepts of having essential amenities accessible to all people

5. Industrialization/ improvement in transport network – better distribution of food supply

6. Food production improves

Stage 2• Why did stage 2 not see a decline in birth

rate?1. Birth rate is influenced almost mainly by

social ideas, religions and culture. They are much harder to change than the technology

2. A reduction in birth rate will only come when the country reaches its fully industrialized stage in stage 3

Stage 3• Birth rate falls

rapidly while death rate falls slowly and steadily

• Slow increase in population – one that is slowing down

• Usually occurs in fully industrialized economy

Stage 3• Reasons for the fall in birth rate1. Improvement and distributions of birth

control technologies/ drugs2. Generally lower death rate, and much lower

infant mortality rate3. Fully industrialized economy – no more

need for child laborer4. Reduction in fertility – as a result of

emancipation/ education of women

Stage 4• Birth rate and death rate fluctuates at low

rate• Natural increase low• Post-industrial society• Most ly developed MEDCs nations

Stage 5• When birth rate finally falls below death

rate• Death rate may remain high due to

degenerative diseases, alcohol and STDs

Will Africa follow the DTM?• 3 Views on Mortality fall1. When Mortality/IMR falls, fertility will

subsequently fall – to compensate!2. Education changing the mindset of

people – the changes the norm of family size – emancipation of women

Criticisms of the Model• Too Eurocentric – based upon Europe• Doesn’t take in account the recent decrease in rate

of growth among the MEDC nations – 5th Stage?• Migration has not been accounted for• Will certain nations in Africa industrialize quickly

enough• Certain nations in Southeast Asia have effectively

skipped stages• New LEDCs are influenced by international agenda

- THAILAND

DTM in LEDCs• In stage 2 – Birth rate is usually higher• Death rate fell more steeply – with

different causes (less war, less famine, diseases cured)

• Countries with large base population may experience a lag time between stage 2 and 3 – population momentum

• Fall in fertility steeper in stage 3

Ageing PopulationLife Expectancy/ Death rates/ Results of

stage 5 of the DTM

Ageing Population• A phenomenon that usually occurs in MEDCs• Is also a case in LEDCs (pop. Over 60 to quadruple

by 2050)• Caused by a declining birth and death rate• Decline in fertility + A constantly high/ increasing Life

Expectancy• Indicated by the rise in the median age (Life

Expectancy)• Global Expectancy (1950-46, 1970-60, 2050-74)• In MEDC – aged population outnumbering the youth

Ageing Population• Population aged over 80 is the falsest

growing section of the global population• Population changes in LEDCs have been

faster then MEDCs – most likely due to the quicker process of industrialization – or the abundance of natural resources – or the existence of technological advancement elsewhere

Effects of Ageing Population• Healthcare system under

strains• Pensions under strain• Government funding under

strains• Strains on the economically

active population• An ongoing – self serving

process• Difficult to overturn – can’t

increase fertility nor can death rates be increased

Taking care of the Elderly• Elderly left to their own devices? (Pay-as-you-go

system)• Work of the youthful population (Asian culture)• Government to take care of• Financial planning is needed for retirees• Increased taxation to prevent elderly poverty• Technology?• Changing our perception to ageing – can elderly be

the economically active?- childcare can be conducted by elders – volunteers in charity

Population and Development• Development: The improvement in the

quality of life including wealth , education and health

• A complicated, perceptive concept• Includes those Social, Economic,

Environmental, Political factors

Population and Development• There are strong positive correlations

between low rate of population growth and economic development

• However the relationship is complex• The lack of investment and political

instability are known as the more possible causes of social decline

Causes for developments:- Increase in local food supply- Improvement in investment and economy

– increase in incomes- More productions (INDUSTRIALIZATION)- Higher literacy rate- Extension of electricity grids to rural areas- Improvement in the transport network

Question to ask…• Has the increase in population been the

cause for the lack of development all this time – or is it the other way round?

Demographic Indices• Check figure 1.25• Infant Mortality rate and death rate have both reduced

over the year • IMR is used to measure socio-economic development• A decline in fertility have been a case• Child mortality rate reduced – due to better health care• Maternal Mortality rate – A great indication of

development – high differences between LEDCs and MEDCs

Child Mortality The number of children who died before

their 5th birthdays per 1000 live birth• A factor that has been falling

significantly• Due to improvement in healthcare,

urbanizing society, changes in age structure

• Breast-feeding provide immunity• Successes in Small pox eradication

program• Measles vaccination• Unicefs: Majority of child’s death are still

preventable = more work to be done

Maternal MortalityThe death of a woman during or shortly

after pregnancy• 1/6000 in MEDCs• 1/22 in LEDCs• Affected by Pre-natal care/ attendance at

birth

Carrying Capacity Carrying capacity is the amount of

people/ organisms an environment can support with its resources

• This is a fluid concept – resources accessibility can increase with the improvement of technology

• Growth of the economy has had massive influences on the resources – they are becoming depleted and the ‘waste sinks’ are becoming full

• The distribution of resources is not fair

Theory of Optimum population• States that there is a point when the

growth of population will result in economic development that leas to the highest standard of living – The number of population that will result in the highest standard of living in an areas

Definition bunches Biocapacity: The capacity of an area or a given

ecosystem to generate an ongoing supply of resources and to absorb its waste.

Ecological footprint: A sustainability indicator that expresses the relationship between population and the natural environment. It takes into account the use of natural resources by a country’s population

Global hectare: One hectare of biologically productive space with world average productivity.

Ecological Footprint• The sum of all crop lands, grazing lands, fishing grounds,

timbers to produce and resources both in objects and lands required for absorbing the waste

• Biocapacity: The level of resources the earth has – expressed in global hectares

• Issue: Biocapacity(supply) – Ecological Footprint(Demand) = Negative number – hence the world is exceeding its limit of resource usage

• Carbon footprint is the dominant element• This is different between countries• Effected by: The size of population, the type of resources

being used, the way they impact the natural environment• Global trades had had great influences on the footprints• ECOLOGICAL OVERSHOOT

Food Shortages• Mostly occurring in Africa• Can be both human/ natural

problems• Can have effects on children – in

early stages• Malnutrition can have long term

effects in inducing mortality• Reduces people’s capacity to

work• Cycle of: Ill health – low

productivity - underdevelopment

Food Shortages• Caused by: Soil Exhaustion, Drought,

flood, Cyclones, pests, diseases• Human causes: Lack of investment, Rapid

growth of population, political instability/ war hindering the economy, transport difficulties

• Case studies: Sudan

Thomas Malthus• A British demographer/ reverend• Published the essay on

population growth in 1798• States that food grows

arithmetically while population grows exponentially

• Population will soon exceed resources

• At which point - population will begin to decrease in form of checks

Thomas Malthus• Preventive check: Population

decrease in the form of abstinence – promotion of lower fertility/ postponing marriages

• Positive check: Population is reduces by increase in death rate: famine, drought, disease, war, natural disasters

Malthus’ views effects on the Irish Potato famine

The Roles of technologies in resource developments• Global use of resources has changed• As we know – development/ carrying

capacity is a fluid concept• Development has been enhanced by

improvement in Technologies

New Energy Resources• Uranium as nuclear

power source in France• Wind farms in the

Netherlands• Tidal powers• Developments of

Hydrological powers• Solar powers in Japan

The Green Revolution The Introduction of high-yielding seeds

and modern agricultural techniques in developing countries

Food Production• Innovation in food production and distribution –

fed the rising population of the world• HVP programs in India in 1966-67• Hybrid varieties of: wheat, rice, maize. Sorghum

and millet• Refrigeration/ uses of hormones – allow

transport of food to the more remote areas• Higher accessibilities play a part• Increase in market forces, industrialization and

surplus of workforce – plays a positive feedback loop to development

The Green Revolution (HYV)Advantages• Yields are twice/ four times

higher than traditional practices/ varieties

• Shorter growth seasons = extra crops introduced

• Increase incomes – better seeds/ fertilizers/ pesticides

• More varied rural diet• Improvement in infrastructures

as market develops• Employments increase with

more productions• Increase in irrigation

Disadvantage• Costly in terms of economy

• Consequences to the environment

• Requires more weed controls/ more susceptible to diseases

• Lower income farmers still left out

• Expansion of irrigation – higher salinization

• Inferior taste• Lower in minerals/ vitamins

Perennial Crops• Crops that grow all year long• Overcomes the factors of climate/ time• Allow for higher annual yields/ production

The Role of Constraints• Constraint in resources can cause out-

migration• It can result in population decline in

extreme conditions

Overpopulation Overpopulation: Where there are too many

people in relative to the available resources and technologies

• In basic terms it is caused by: lack of food, lack of clean water, high population density, land constraint, lack of clean air

• In nowadays terms it is caused by: Lack of Education, Waste disposal, Housing, Health Care

Underpopulation• Where there too few people to fully exploit the

resources efficiently or not enough collective learning for full improvement of technologies

• In basic terms: Lack of development, low population growth, at the mercy of nature, high death rate, raiding/ conflicts

• In nowadays terms: Apply more to MEDCs e.g. Australia ; lack of development despite abundance of resources, lesser market forces, low population growth, out-migration

Population capacity• Increasing population: Full exploitation of

resources – lead to technological innovations• However: Increase pressure on resources result

in a decline The optimum population is one that achieves a

given aim in the most effective way Economic Optimum: The level of population that,

through the production of goods and services, provides the highest average standard of living

Population Ceiling• The population ceiling involves simply the

carrying capacity of a population• A population may grow to reach an equilibrium

near the carrying capacity (the ceiling)• Or it may experience a dieback• Population Ceiling is the population size

beyond which the population cannot grow due to limiting factors caused by population pressure

Population Adjustment Overtime• S-curves: Begins with exponential growth

– due to population pressure, the growth rate slows down, becomes stable and tapers off

• J-curves: Population grows exponentially, and the it suddenly collapses – population exceeds carrying capacity before diebacks

Management of Natural Increase Population Policy: A government’s stated

aim on an aspect of its population, and the measures taken to achieve that aim

Pro-natalist policy: A population policy that aims to encourage more births through the use of incentives

Anti-natalist policy: A population policy designed to limit fertility thorough the use of both incentives and deterrant

Management of natural increaseFamily planning programme: A programme that

regulates the number and spacing of children in a family through the practice of contraception or other methods of birth controls

Civil Liberties: The rights and freedoms that protect an individual from the state

Selection Abortion: An abortion performed because of the gender of the fetus or when a genetic test is performed that detects undesirable results