Land use change analysis

Overview of climate variability and likely climate change impacts on agriculture across the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS)

10 – 11 March, 2014, Hanoi, Vietnam

Eitzinger Anton, Giang Linh, Lefroy Rod

Laderach Peter, Carmona Stephania

2 steps

• Compare predicted future suitability change from climate models and Ecocrop maps and existing land use data

• A time-series analysis of Land Use using satellite images

Not available = natural (forest, wetland, …), protected, water, bare, urban areasNeeds change = land mixed with pastoralism (forest, herbaceous, wetlands, …)Available = Agriculture (commercial, subsidized, irrigated, …)

Land use change at risk

for agriculture

• A time-series of NDVI observations can be used to examine the dynamics of the growing season or monitor phenomena such as droughts.

• The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data set is available on a 16 day. The product is derived from bands 1 and 2 of the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer on board NASA's Terra satellite.

2nd step A time-series analysis of Land Use

2004 – 2012

Methodology…

Downloa

d data

• More than 300 images of NDVI 250m MODIS sensor were downloaded from the period 2000-2013

Image

Filtering

• NDVI scenes was first filtered to eliminate high and low values (poor quality data) using Quality Assessment Science Data Sets (QASDS)

Noise

Remov

al

• Applying the approach of Fourier interpolation algorithm, to separate the noise spectrum from the signal spectrum of the data set frequency domain

MODIS for analyzing the vegetation cover

Presentation: Linh Giang

OVERVIEW OF LANDCOVER FROM GOOGLE EARTH

5/2000 5/2006

5/2012

5/2000 5/2006

5/2012

MeKong detla area

5/2000 5/2006

5/2012

Laos area

2002-2009

Forest cover change

(WWF report, 2013)

Mainland Southeast Asia: Land Cover 2004The FLAMES project

WWF identified the key drivers of change of vegetation cover:- Human population growth and increasing population density.- Unsustainable levels of resource use throughout the region,

increasing driven by the demands of export- led growth rather than subsistence use;

- Unplanned and frequently unsustainable forms of infrastructure development (dams, roads…)

World Population Density (people/km2)

Conclusion

• MODIS data is useful to get overview of the vegetation cover change in the long time,

• The highest changes in research area have concentrated in the Vietnam and Myanmar with deforestation reason. Laos has the contain of vegetation cover,

• The result data has the good quality, recorded the same result with other projects

Thank you for your attention