Election 2012Ned Monroe

National Association of Manufacturers

The Big Picture

Pollster.com, October 2, 2012

The Big Picture

Bureau of Labor Statistics, bls.gov, October 2, 2012

Monthly Unemployment Rate, 2009-present

The Big Picture

Tradingeconomics.com, October 2, 2012

The Big Picture

Tradingeconomics.com, October 2, 2012

The Big Picture

From “Obama’s Re-election Prospects Under ‘Bread and Peace’ Voting in the 2012 US Presidential Election,” Douglas A. Hibbs.

PS: Political Science and Politics, October 2012

The Big Picture

Pollster.com, October 2, 2012

The Big PictureObama-Romney Polling Average

The Big Picture

Pollster.com, September 11, 2012

The Presidential Election

Obama vs. Romney

The New Scorecard2008: Obama 365; McCain 173 –

Obama +192

2012: Obama 359; Romney 179 –

Obama +180

Polling for 3-2-1 States

Indiana Virginia North Carolina

Florida Ohio

35

46.3 45.5 47.3 4751

46.7 47.9 46.6 45

Obama Romney

Indiana – 11 Electoral Votes

Virginia – 13 EV’s

North Carolina – 15 EVs

Florida – 29 EV’s

Ohio – 18 Electoral Votes

The 3-2-1 StrategyRomney Must Win: Indiana – Virginia – North Carolina

Romney Must Also Win: Ohio – Florida

Romney Must Win 1 of the Following: New Hampshire – Nevada – New Mexico – Iowa – Minnesota – Colorado – Wisconsin – Pennsylvania

NE-2 + One More

New Hampshire IowaPennsylvania ColoradoMichigan New MexicoMinnesota WisconsinNevada

The Senate*33 Seats “In-Cycle” 23 Democrats; 10 Republicans

*11 Open Seats

6 Democratic; 4 Republicans; 1 I-D *Rs Gain NE: 5 Highly Competitive Rs 9 Highly Competitive Ds

The Five Rs

MaineMassachusetts

NevadaIndianaArizona

The Nine Ds

North Dakota WisconsinNebraska OhioMissouri FloridaMontana ConnecticutVirginia

The House*GOP Majority remains constant – 242 seats

*Redistricting Related Changes – about even

*Already 60 Open Seats