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Demographic & Economic Changes and How They Impact Our Community
Presentation by Linda Shipley & Laura Simmons
UNC Charlotte Urban Institute
October 2011
Overview
• Demographic changes: 2000-2010• Impacts of the recession: 2005-2010• Issues and opportunities that have emerged for
our community
Demographic Change
• Mecklenburg population 2010: 920,000–Most populous county in N.C.–Wake County is a close second (901,000)
• Population growth 2000-2010: 32.2%– Nearly twice as fast as the state (18.5%)– Not as fast as Wake County (43.5%)
Source: 2010 Census, 2000 Census
Age
• Population is slowly aging– e.g. 60-64 group up from 3% to 4.4%
6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
2000
Under 5 years5 to 9 years
10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years
85 years and over
6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
2010
Male Female Male Female
Source: 2010 Census, 2000 Census
Race/Ethnicity
• Racial/ethnic minorities have increased, especially Hispanic population
Hispanic/Latino
Multi-Racial
Other
Asian
American Indian
African American
White
6.5%
1.1%
0.2%
3.1%
0.3%
27.7%
61.1%
12.2%
1.8%
0.3%
4.6%
0.3%
30.2%
50.6%
Percent of Population 2010 2000
9.5%
44.5%
33.5%
93.4%
124.1%
109.4%
149.5%
Change 2000-2010
Source: 2010 Census, 2000 Census
Race/Ethnicity
• White (non-Hispanic) population in wedge south of Uptown, in North Mecklenburg, and along Union County border
• African American population in West and North Charlotte• Hispanic population in East and Southwest Charlotte
Source: 2010 Census
Family Structure
• Married couple families are still most prevalent but declining, while single parent families and unmarried partner households are on the rise
Married Couple Families Single Parent Families Unmarried Partner Families0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0% 74.6%
14.5%
5.2%
69.4%
17.7%
7.0%
Family Structure2000 2010
Source: 2010 American Community Survey, 2000 Census
Educational Attainment
• Education levels have increased
2000 20100.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
33.7% 32.5%
37.1%39.2%
Highest DegreeHigh School Diploma or Less Bachelor's Degree or Higher
Source: 2010 American Community Survey, 2000 Census
Educational Attainment
• Education levels are higher for non-Hispanic whites and Asians than African Americans and Hispanic/Latinos
White, Non-Hispanic
African American Asian Hispanic/Latino0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
21.1%
42.6%
33.8%
66.5%
50.3%
23.5%
55.2%
16.0%
Highest Degree by Race, 2010
High School Diploma or Less Bachelor's Degree or Higher
Source: 2010 American Community Survey
Income
• More households with high and low incomes and fewer in the middle
Less than $25,000
$25,000 to $50,000
$50,000 to $100,000
$100,000 to $200,000
$200,000 or more
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
20.4%
28.8%
33.5%
13.2%
4.0%
23.0%24.9%
30.5%
16.4%
5.2%
Household Income2000 2010
Source: 2010 American Community Survey, 2000 Census
Income
• Incomes are highest for non-Hispanic whites and lower for minority groups
White
, Non-H
ispanic
Africa
n American
Asian
Hispanic/
Latino
$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $66,460
$36,413
$53,482
$39,876
Median Household Income by Race, 2010
Source: 2010 American Community Survey
Employment
• Construction and manufacturing have declined• Education & health services, financial activities,
and leisure & hospitality have grown
5%
11%
12%
4%
12%
6%
3%
23%
24%
2010Construction
Education & Health Services
Financial Activities
Information
Leisure & Hospitality
Manufacturing
Natural Resources, Mining
Other Services
Professional & Business Services
Trade, Transportation, and Util-ities
7%7%
10%
5%
10%
10%
3%
23%
26%
2000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Newcomers
• Over 65,000 people moved to Mecklenburg County between 2009 and 2010– 65% came from outside North Carolina
• 1/3 from another state in the South• 1/4 from the Northeast• 1/5 from a different country
– Half are white (non-Hispanic), 1/4 are African American, 11% are Hispanic/Latino, and 11% Asian
– Over 40% are college educated, 30% have a high school education or less
Source: 2010 American Community Survey
Newcomers
• Where are newcomers moving?– University City– Northern and
Southwestern parts of the county
Source: 2005-2009 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates
Development
Unemployment
• Unemployment–More than 3 times what it was in 2000• 3% in 2000• 10.9% in 2010
–Worse for some groups than for others• Twice as bad for African Americans (19.7%) than non-
Hispanic whites (9.6%)• 2.5+ times worse for those with a high school diploma
(16.3%), or less (15.9%), than for those with a bachelor’s degree or higher (6.3%)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2010 American Community Survey
Poverty
• Poverty has increased to national average
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
11.3% 11.3% 10.7% 10.5%
14.0%15.3%15.1% 14.7% 14.3% 14.6%
16.3%17.5%
13.3% 13.3% 13.0% 13.2% 14.3%15.3%
Percent of People in Poverty
Mecklenburg County North Carolina United States
Source: American Community Survey
Poverty
• Poverty is concentrated in the crescent around Uptown stretching from the southwest to southeast
Source: 2005-2009 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates
Foreclosures
• Twice as many foreclosures in 2010 as 2005
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
6,3457,158
7,940 8,384
12,76612,176
Foreclosures in Mecklenburg County
Source: North Carolina Office of the Courts
Public Services
• Many struggling neighborhoods face additional hardships because of reductions in hours and locations of public services like libraries and recreation centers
Education
• After decades of successful integration, CMS schools have become segregated once again
Source: North Carolina Department of Instruction
Education
• Student population of CMS has become more diverse and more economically disadvantaged– 37% students applied for free-reduced lunch in
2001-02, up to 53% in 2009-10
Source: North Carolina Department of Instruction
5%
16%
45%
33%
2009-10
American IndianAsianHispanicBlackWhite
4%7%
44%
45%
CMS Students by Race
2001-02
Transportation
• Mismatch between location of services and population in need of those services– e.g. services for
disconnected youth
Source: “Preparing Our Youth for Work: A Community Assessment”
Health
• Obesity has become an increasingly serious problem
2001 20100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
18.7%26.0%
35.4%
34.3%
Percent of Adults who are Overweight or Obese
Obese Overweight
Source: 2001, 2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Survey
Health
• Significant disparities in health care coverage
Source: 2010 American Community Survey
Total
White
, Non-H
ispanic
Africa
n American
American In
dianAsia
n
Hispanic/
Latino
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
22.8%
13.5%
26.1%
43.5%
18.8%
58.1%
Percent of People (18 to 64) Without Health Insurance, 2010
Health
• Teen pregnancy has improved significantly
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
52.247.1 42.5 42.8 43.9 42.6
47.344.5 44.7
38.633.3
Teen Birth Rate (15 to 19 year olds)
Birt
hs p
er 1
,000
teen
girl
s
Source: North Carolina State Center for Health Statistics
Safety
• Crime rates are declining
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Crime Rates
Crime Rate Violent Crime Rate Property Crime Rate
Crim
es p
er 1
00,0
00 P
opul
ation
Source: North Carolina State Bureau of Investigation
Economic Outlook
• Emerging energy industry– Growth centered around Duke Energy– Existing energy-related firms have expanded and
new ones have located here
Source: Charlotte Regional Partnership
– 250 energy-related firms in the Charlotte Region, a good number of which are in Mecklenburg
– EPIC at UNC Charlotte aims to create a talent pool that will fuel continued growth of the sector
Economic Outlook
• Other important industries for Mecklenburg’s future economic growth– Finance– Healthcare–Motorsports– Transportation and warehousing– Location for company headquarters
Economic Outlook
• Business confidence index– Dipped into negative territory in 4th Quarter and all
six components were down, indicating diminishing confidence in both national and local economies
Source: BusinessFirst Charlotte Business Confidence Index, Fourth Quarter 2011
Continued In-Migration
• After peaking in 2007, the number of newcomers is on the rise again, even though unemployment remains high
Source: American Community Survey
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000
100,000
70,89576,534
86,916
74,526
60,50666,376
Newcomers to Mecklenburg County
Peop
le w
ho m
oved
to th
e co
unty
in
the
past
yea
r
Discussion Issues
• Possible discussion issues– Continued in-migration with few new jobs– Future of white population’s support for CMS– Reduction in size of middle class– Public transit system does not adequately serve
those who need it most– Impact of health care law (if it is implemented)• Predicted shortage of primary care physicians
Our Work in the Community
• Visit our websites to learn more about who we are, what we do, and the community in which we all live– http://ui.uncc.edu– http://ri.uncc.edu
• Recent studies and ongoing work of interest– MeckEd interactive maps of CMS schools– United Way Community Needs Assessment– Urban League The State of Ethnic Charlotte– Women’s Summit Women, Wages, & Work series– Goodwill Preparing Our Youth for Work Community
Assessment
Contact Information
• Contact us with questions about our work and ideas for future research– Linda Shipley• 704-687-2177• [email protected]
– Laura Simmons• 704-687-2872• [email protected]
Demographic & Economic Changes and How They Impact Our Community
Presentation by Linda Shipley & Laura Simmons
UNC Charlotte Urban Institute
October 2011
