Kina, USA och framtidens energi

En omöjlig kombination?

? ?

? ?

Är litet vackert?

Slutet för det globala samhället

Jordbrukskollaps

Grönt hoppGlobal fördelning

Grönt strategiskt beteende

Efter flodenSammanbrott och

minskad befolkning

Öar av återhämtning

Brun dystopi

Auktoritarism

Fortress world

Begränsad tillgång till fossila bränslen

Klimatförändringar

Kraftig ekonomisk volatilitetModerata energipriseökningar

Alar

mer

ande

klim

atpå

verk

anBe

grän

sad

klim

atpå

verk

an

? ?

? ?

Is Small Beautiful?

End of globalisation

Dramatic agricultural impacts

Green hopeGlobal equity

Green strategic behaviour

Wake of the Flood

Reduced populations

Islands of recovery

Brown dystopia

Authoritarianism

Fortress world

Increasing competition for fossil energy

Climate Change

Dramatic price increasesModerate price increases

Alar

min

g im

pact

sLi

mite

d im

pact

s

? ?

? ?

Is Small Beautiful?

End of globalisation

Dramatic agricultural impacts

Green hopeGlobal equity

Green strategic behaviour

Wake of the Flood

Reduced populations

Islands of recovery

Brown dystopia

Authoritarianism

Fortress world

Increasing competition for fossil energy

Climate Change

Dramatic price increasesModerate price increases

Alar

min

g im

pact

sLi

mite

d im

pact

s

? ?

? ?

Is Small Beautiful?

End of globalisation

Dramatic agricultural impacts

Green hopeGlobal equity

Green strategic behaviour

Wake of the Flood

Reduced populations

Islands of recovery

Brown dystopia

Authoritarianism

Fortress world

Increasing competition for fossil energy

Climate Change

Dramatic price increasesModerate price increases

Alar

min

g im

pact

sLi

mite

d im

pact

s

? ?

? ?

Is Small Beautiful?

End of globalisation

Dramatic agricultural impacts

Green hopeGlobal equity

Green strategic behaviour

Wake of the Flood

Reduced populations

Islands of recovery

Brown dystopia

Authoritarianism

Fortress world

Increasing competition for fossil energy

Climate Change

Dramatic price increasesModerate price increases

Alar

min

g im

pact

sLi

mite

d im

pact

s

? ?

? ?

Is Small Beautiful?

End of globalisation

Dramatic agricultural impacts

Green hopeGlobal equity

Green strategic behaviour

Wake of the Flood

Reduced populations

Islands of recovery

Brown dystopia

Authoritarianism

Fortress world

Increasing competition for fossil energy

Climate Change

Dramatic price increasesModerate price increases

Alar

min

g im

pact

sLi

mite

d im

pact

s

Peak oil inträffar nu

Marginalkostnad för oljeproduktion

Oljeberoende (Mb/d)

United States European Union China0

5

10

15

20

25

OljeimportOljekonsumtion

54%

63%

52%

(M b/d)

66.1

20.5

5.3

0.9

6.80.4

CoalOilNatural gasNuclear powerHydropowerOther renewable energy

Kina107 Btu

USA98 Btu

The American way of life is not up for negotiation

George Bush (sr)Rio 1992

USA:s kostnad för oljeberoende

4,5% av BNP

3,5% an BNP

USA Energianvändning

Kinas oljepeak

Peak coal?

Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to

gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault

on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any

means necessary, including military force.

Jimmy CarterState of the Union, 1980

谢谢

Show me your

number

Totalt mervärde från cleantech (miljarder EUR)

Relativt mervärde från cleantech

(% av BNP)

Hög absolut tillväxt i cleantech är avgörande för

konkurrenskraft