Total Lifetime Fitness and Cohort

Replacement Rate for Chinook Salmon Outplanted

above Cougar Dam, South Fork McKenzie River

Dave P. Jacobson1, Nick Sard1, Michael J. Hogansen2, Kirk Schroeder2,

Marc A. Johnson2, Kathleen G. O’Malley1 and Michael A. Banks1

• 1 Oregon State University, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Coastal Oregon Marine Experiment

Station, Hatfield Marine Science Center, 2030 SE Marine Science Drive, Newport, Oregon 97365

• 2 The Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, Corvallis Research Laboratory, 28655 Highway 34,

Corvallis, Oregon 97333

Objectives

• Determine the proportion of unmarked

Chinook collected at the Cougar trap-and-

haul in 2012 that could be assigned as

progeny of 2007-2009 outplants

• Estimate total lifetime fitness of 2007

outplants and investigate sources of variance

• Estimate cohort replacement rate and

genetic effective population size

Total Lifetime Fitness

The number of adult spawners produced by an

individual

For our study:

The number of unmarked adult Chinook

collected at Cougar Dam that could be

confidently assigned as progeny of a previous

outplant

Cohort Replacement Rate (CRR)

The number of adults in one generation divided

by the number of adults in the generation that

produced them

For our study:

The number of adult females in one generation

divided by the number of adult females in the

generation that produced them

Effective Population Size

The average size of a population in terms of

the number of individuals that contribute

genes equally to the next generation

Adult Return Years

Methods

• Genotyped outplants at 11 microsatellites

• Performed a likelihood-based parentage

analysis

• CERVUS

•Explanatory variables: Outplant date, outplant site, sex, number of mates

• Generalized Linear Models (GLM)

•R

•Genetic Effective Population Size

•LDNE1

1Waples and Do 2008

Assignments by sex

Results – 2012 Adult Returns

Assignments to cohort

Results – 2012 Adult Returns

Age class assignments

5 year old 4 year old Unknown

Results – 2011 and 2012 Adult Returns

2011

September 1st

6/23 7/18 8/12 9/06

Date

2012

September 1st

5/29 7/18 9/06 10/26

Date

Seasonality of

Assignment Rate

Collected Assigned Proportion that

Assigned

Before 01 September 331 259 0.78

After 01 September 169 32 0.19

Total 500 291 0.58

Outplant Dates in 2007 Tota

l Lifetim

e F

itness

Parental Fitness

GLM

Estimate z value Pr(>|z|) CI 95%

(Intercept) 2.468 2.03 0.04 1.055 - 5.812

Julian date 0.993 -3.364 7.6E-4 0.989 - 0.997

Outplant Date Tota

l Lifetim

e F

itness

GLM

Estimate z value Pr(>|z|) CI 95%

(Intercept) 2.068 1.230 0.220 0.906 -4.752

Julian date 0.994 -2.741 6.1E-3 0.990 - 0.997

Estimate z value Pr(>|z|) CI 95%

(Intercept) 2.468 2.030 0.040 1.055-5.812

Julian date 0.993 -3.364 7.6E-4 0.989-0.997

GLMs continued

Females Estimate z value Pr(>|z|) CI 95%

(Intercept) 1.14 0.455 0.649 0.67 - 2.01

Hard Rock 0.54 -1.820 0.069 0.02 - 1.04

Bridge 1980 0.45 -1.908 0.056 0.02 – 1.02

Bridge 430 0.52 -2.014 0.044 0.27 – 0.97

Males Estimate z value Pr(>|z|) CI 95%

(Intercept) 3.53 1.956 0.051 1.00 - 12.67

Julian Date 0.99 -3.044 0.002 0.986 – 0.997

Tota

l Lifetim

e F

itness

Bet Hedging

Female Cohort Replacement Rate

113/269 = 0.38

111

269 Outplanted

in 2007

113 Adult Progeny

2010-2012

Effective Population Size

•Ne : 112-146

•Pedigree

•99 Females

•115 Males

Summary

• Spring Chinook that returned early assigned at

a higher rate than later returning fish

• Chinook outplanted later in the season

produced fewer adult returns

• More mates associated with higher fitness

•Females Cohort Replacement Rate <0.50

Thanks to:

US Army

Corps of Engineers

OSU:

Carl Schreck

Jen Britt

Sana Banks

Miles Naughton

ODFW:

Mark Wade

Nik Zymonas

Lisa Borgerson

Kanani Bowden

Ben Clemens